W. Va. Code R. § 126-207-5

Current through Register Vol. XLI, No. 45, November 8, 2024

Section 126-207-5 - Projections of Net Enrollment - County Boards of Education

5.1. There are a variety of methods available to forecast student enrollment. A method that has proven reliable over a number of years of use is the cohort survival method. This method fares well even when compared with more sophisticated methods that employ multiple regression analysis. It is this reliability and relative simplicity that has led to its historical use by the National Center for Education Statistics for similar enrollment-type projections and is the reason for adoption as the objective method employed by the WVDE for projecting net enrollment increases.

5.2. The basic concept behind cohort survival is that it is known, from historical records, what percentage of students in a cohort, or grade level, are promoted to the next grade level. This information can be used to objectively project future enrollments.

5.3. For the purpose of this policy, five years of net enrollment historical data of all students enrolled in the public schools of this state in pre-kindergarten through grade 12 will be aggregated for each county board of education and an average survival rate determined for each grade level to project the total net enrollment of each county board for the upcoming school year.

5.4. To project pre-kindergarten enrollment, birth data from four years earlier will be used.

5.5. An adjustment will be made to each county board of education's enrollment projection due to economic factors impacting the county.

5.6. A final adjustment will be made to each county board of education's enrollment projection due to charter public school enrollment projections as detailed in section 6.

W. Va. Code R. § 126-207-5