4 Colo. Code Regs. § 723-3-3530
Current through Register Vol. 47, No. 11, June 10, 2024
Section 4 CCR 723-3-3530 - Distribution System Forecasts(a) Forecast requirements. The utility shall prepare demand forecasts for each year within the ten-year planning period. The utility shall also prepare ten-year forecasts for load growth on the distribution grid, including the growth of various types of DERs connected to the distribution grid. Forecasts should be based on at least two growth scenarios (State Policy and High), including reasonably detailed predictions of the expected geographic areas of substantial growth within the distribution substation grid area and impacts on planning for the transmission and distribution system, including impacts due to DER adoption and increased demand flexibility and demand response within the utility's service territory. Forecasted growth should include the following: (I) peak load growth at each substation, by year;(II) peak load growth at each substation transformer by year;(III) peak load growth on each feeder, by year;(IV) coincident peak and non-coincident peak load growth at substations, transformers, and feeders, by voltage class;(V) load growth associated with beneficial electrification, by substation transformer and by feeder under each scenario in subparagraph 3530(a)(X);(VI) load growth due to new planned neighborhoods or housing developments,(VII) net load impacts due to DER adoption under each scenario in subparagraph 3530(a)(X);(VIII) net load impacts due to demand side management, demand response, and demand flexibility;(IX) approved CSG capacity in RES Plans and anticipated CSG capacity additions beyond the current effective RES plans;(X) forecasts of DERs and NWA should include ten-year scenarios that project expected growth of DERs and NWA, including expected geographic dispersion at the distribution feeder level and impacts on distribution planning. Scenarios shall be designed to meet or exceed current state policy such as those related to greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, increased use of DERs, electrification, distribution reliability, resiliency, and transmission system needs. Scenarios shall include key inputs including growth of peak exported generation or net generation from distributed solar generation; growth of peak exported generation or net generation from distributed battery storage systems; and growth of peak exported generation or net generation from all other distributed generation. Scenarios shall be based on the following criteria:(A) State Policy Goal Scenario: Adopts a current forecast case for DER and NWA deployment for distribution planning at the feeder level, assuming compliance with current state policy goals.(B) High Growth Scenario: Adopts a high growth case for DERs. This scenario should exceed state policy goals, which may include long-term GHG reductions, and beneficial electrification at levels higher or faster than required in state statute or incurrent state policy goals. Additionally, the High Growth Scenario may improve upon performance in areas of demand flexibility, distribution reliability, resiliency, and transmission system needs beyond a business as usual projection.(b) The utility shall provide all assumptions and methodologies that are inputs into the forecasting scenarios in paragraph 3530(a).38 CR 17, September 10, 2015, effective 9/30/201539 CR 06, March 25, 2016, effective 4/14/201639 CR 08, April 25, 2016, effective 5/15/201640 CR 22, November 25, 2017, effective 12/15/201742 CR 03, February 10, 2019, effective 3/2/201942 CR 07, April 10, 2019, effective 4/30/201942 CR 09, May 10, 2019, effective 5/30/201943 CR 08, April 25, 2020, effective 5/15/202043 CR 12, June 25, 2020, effective 7/15/202043 CR 20, October 25, 2020, effective 11/14/202044 CR 13, July 10, 2021, effective 7/30/202144 CR 24, December 25, 2021, effective 1/14/202245 CR 18, September 25, 2022, effective 10/15/202246 CR 02, January 25, 2023, effective 2/14/2023