Section 7.09 - Forecast Requirements(1)Scope and Purpose. This Part sets forth basic requirements for forecasting and applies to electric and gas forecasts and supplements filed on and after December 1, 1978. 980 CMR 7.09(2) applies to all forecasting methodologies while 980 CMR 7.09(3) applies only where econometric approaches are employed.(2)General Requirements. With respect to all forecasting methodologies:(a) Each is to be designed to accommodate sensitivity testing of major assumptions and parameters.(b) Where computer programs are employed, these are to be made available to the Council upon request.(c) Where computer programs are employed, source listings of computer programs, descriptions of the structure of each program and subprogram, and descriptions of the relationships between logical parts are to be made available to the Council upon request.(d) Each forecasting methodology must explicitly consider and quantify the following factors: 1. conservation programs and policies of the Commonwealth;2. conservation programs and policies of the federal government;3. the penetration of alternative energy technologies, including but not limited to, wind and solar devices, cogeneration, and biomass conversion;4. improvements in the efficiencies of new and existing appliances and machinery, including building insulation;5. behavioral changes with respect to energy use by customers, such as reduction in heating, cooling, and lighting levels;6. responses to higher price levels, potential or actual changes in rate structure, and load management.(3)Econometric Forecasting Models. Documentationof econometric forecasting methodologies for final form equations shall include:(a) a statement of the a priori theoretical or empirical basis for functional form and variable selection;(b) a statement of the procedures by which variables have been added or deleted in the development of final form specification;(c) justification of all estimated coefficients which have incorrect signs;(d) identification of the method of estimation;(e) statistical documentation of each equation; including standard error of estimation, residual sum of squares, F-test, R-squared (adjusted or unadjusted), and a test for serial correlation for time series data;(f) statistical documentation of each estimated parameter of each independent variable, including t-value or standard error at the same specified level of significance, mean of the dependent variables, and the standard deviation of each dependent variable. Upon request of the Council, the petitioner or lead company shall provide copies of the original computer outputs of all regressions, all data files together with identification of the sources of the data, and an index of variable names for cross-referencing between computer outputs and the forecast documentation.