(a) In accordance with D.C. Code 24-404(a), the Commission shall be authorized to release a prisoner on parole in its discretion after the prisoner has served the minimum term of the sentence imposed, if the following criteria are met: (1) The prisoner has substantially observed the rules of the institution; (2) There is a reasonable probability that the prisoner will live and remain at liberty without violating the law; and (3) In the opinion of the Commission, the prisoner's release is not incompatible