Schwab v. Philip Morris USA, Inc.

Full title: BARBARA SCHWAB et al., individually and on behalf of all others similarly…

Court: United States District Court, E.D. New York

Date published: Sep 25, 2006

449 F. Supp. 2d 992 (E.D.N.Y. 2006)

Opinion

No. 04-CV-1945 (JBW).

September 25, 2006. CONTINUE TO THE NEXT DOCUMENT

Cohen, Milstein, Hausfeld Toll, Washington, DC by Benjamin D. Brown, Paul T. Gallagher, Michael D. Hausfeld, Andrea L. Hertzfeld, Brent W. Landau, Douglas J. McNamara, Linda P. Nussbaum, James J. Pizzirusso, Susan Rogers Schwaiger, Finkelstein, Thompson Loughran, Washington, DC by William P. Butterfield, Hilary K. Ratway, Richard M. Volin, Smoger Associates, P.C., Oakland, CA by Gerson H. Smoger, for Plaintiffs.

Arnold Porter, Washington, DC by Judith Bernstein-Gaeta, Anthony D. Boccanfuso, Susan B. Cassidy, Brian Thomas Edmunds, Murray R. Garnick, Edward Gehres, Jennifer Ann Karmonick, Courtney E. Smothers, Kirkland Ellis, Chicago, IL by David M. Bernick, Renee D. Honigberg, for Defendant Philip Morris USA, Inc.

Jones Day, Cleveland, OH and New York City, By Mark A. Belasic, Harold Keith Gordon, Theodore M. Grossman, Steven P. Harte, Womble, Carlyle, Sandridge Rice, Winston-Salem, NC by Gusti W. Frankel, for Defendant R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company.

Chadbourne Parke, New York City by Joseph Gerard Falcone, Philip A. Pfeffer, for Defendant British American Tobacco Ltd.

Chadbourne Parke, New York City by Thomas Edward Riley, for Defendant British American Tobacco, P.L.C.

Kasowitz, Benson, Torres Friedman, New York City by Leonard A. Feiwus, Julie R. Fischer, Aaron H. Marks, for Defendant Liggett Group, Inc.

Kirkland Ellis, New York City, by Peter A. Bellacosa, for Defendant Brown Williamson Tobacco Corp.

Greenberg Trauig, L.L.P., New York City by Alan Mansfield, Joanne M. McLaren, Stephen L. Saxl, for Defendant Lorillard Tobacco Company.

MEMORANDUM ORDER

WEINSTEIN, Senior District Judge.Page 16West Page 1014

WEINSTEIN, Senior District Judge.Page 16West Page 1014

WEINSTEIN, Senior District Judge.Page 16West Page 1014

WEINSTEIN, Senior District Judge.Page 16West Page 1014

WEINSTEIN, Senior District Judge.Page 16West Page 1014

I. Introduction

Tobacco has been woven into the fabric of American history and society since the 1620's when, as the first cash crop, it saved the colony of Virginia and then, together with cotton, established the economic base for slavery. Edmund S. Morgan, American Slavery, American Freedom, The Ordeal of Colonial Virginia 112, 310 (Francis Parkman Prize Ed., 2005).

In more recent times, through cigarettes — produced and allegedly fraudulently merchandised on a massive scale — it has become the basis for a pandemic, causing the premature deaths of tens of millions of Americans. This case represents one event in this long narrative: the alleged successful effort of defendants to cozen smokers into continuing to buy their products by convincing them that smoking "light" cigarettes was safer for their health.

It is plaintiffs' view that this campaign caused smokers to buy "light" cigarettes, in large amounts, at a price greater than they would have paid had the truth been acknowledged by defendants. Defendants' acts, plaintiffs contend, constituted a violation of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO), 18 U.S.C. §§ 1961 ff, warranting trebled money damages. 18 U.S.C. § 1964(c). Class action status is sought to bring to bear, on a consolidated basis, the weight of all United States smokers' claims.

It is charged — with substantial evidence to support the contention — that plaintiff smokers bought cigarettes characterized as "light," on the suggestion of defendants — the major cigarette manufacturers — that they were less harmful than "regular" cigarettes, when in fact they were at least as dangerous and defendants knew of their dangers. The claim is that the carcinogenic and other adverse effects smokers sought to avoid were not reduced by smoking "light" rather than other cigarettes; that defendants knew this was the case; that they concealed this fact; that they urged plaintiffs — through advertising and other public statements — to smoke these "lights" knowing smokers were being misled; and that they defrauded purchasers of billions of dollars spent for light cigarettes worth less than their purchase price.

On behalf of a prospective class, the named plaintiffs seek class certification pursuant to Federal Rules of Civil Procedure 23(a) and 23(b)(2) and (3) on behalf of the class of persons defined as:

All United States residents who purchased in the United States, not for resale, cigarettes labeled as "Lights" and/or "Light" (collectively "light cigarettes") that were manufactured and/or sold by Defendants during the period commencing on the first date that Defendants began selling light cigarettes until the date trial commences (the "Class Period"), and who are not, as of the date of trial, members of a certified state class seeking economic damages stemming from their purchases of light cigarettes or having obtained an award of, or a denial of, such damages. Excluded from the Class are individuals who are directors and officers of the Defendants' corporations, their parents, subsidiaries and/or affiliates.

This litigation is another in the continuing battle of plaintiffs' lawyers and their clients with the cigarette industry. While limited success by smokers in some suits — and the cost of litigating — have probably had some deterrent effect on aggressive marketing of a product defendants now partly acknowledge to be dangerous, this, and other suits like it, probably have had only a minimal value in reducing what even defendants now concede are the enormous costs to public health of widespread cigarette smoking. More effective in alleviating smoking dangers are probably such legislative and administrative efforts as prohibiting smoking in public and commercial areas, and raising prices, primarily through taxes. Nevertheless, where a cigarette smoker can demonstrate that he or a group of smokers has been damaged by the cigarette industry, the help of the court in resolving the claim and defenses is mandatory. The independent political-economic arrangement defendants made with the states to pay them billions of dollars over many years has not compensated smokers for the individual damages they have allegedly suffered.

Early in our history the Supreme Court ruled that a federal court must decide cases properly brought. It:

must take jurisdiction if it should. The judiciary cannot, as the legislature may, avoid a measure because it approaches the confines of the constitution. We cannot pass it by because it is doubtful. With whatever doubts, with whatever difficulties, a case may be attended, we must decide it, if it be brought before us. We have no more right to decline the exercise of jurisdiction which is given, than to usurp that which is not given. The one or the other would be treason to the constitution. Questions may occur which we would gladly avoid; but we cannot avoid them.

Cohens v. Virginia, 6 Wheat. 264, 404 (1821).

While "the federal courts may, in their discretion, [in some narrowly specified classes of cases,] properly withhold the exercise of the jurisdiction conferred upon them where there is no want of another suitable forum," Massachusetts v. Missouri, 308 U.S. 1, 19, 60 S. Ct. 39 (1939), the choice in the present case under the federal RICO statute is not between a United States district court and some other forum, but between this court and no effective forum at all.

Plaintiffs have proposed an elegant analysis of the law and facts as a rationale for certifying this litigation as a class action. Their claim is that they, and a class consisting of tens of millions of smokers, were induced by fraud to buy a kind of cigarettes, "lights," and that they suffered financial damage because they did not get what they thought they were getting — a more valuable, safer cigarette. By relying on federal substantive statutes — the combined "RICO" and Mail and Wire Fraud Acts, 18 U.S.C. §§ 1341, 1343 — they seek to avoid one of the serious difficulties with national class cigarette actions: the tort law in the fifty states is not uniform.

They also propose to avoid the other main problem with smokers' class actions: conduct and motive differences among members of the class. Individuals start and quit smoking and choose various types of cigarettes for different reasons and suffer wide variations in possible harm, creating different specific causation and damage issues attributable to each class member. If plaintiffs' experts are to be credited in the testimony promised by plaintiffs' counsel, economic loss of value in purchases of cigarettes allegedly touted as "lighter" when they are not safer avoids this problem of human diversity: first, by the equivalent of statistical averaging and, second, should the jury determine total damages to the class, division of the damages based on claims of smokers for the relative number of cigarettes they bought during the applicable liability period, with unclaimed proceeds to be distributed on a cy pres basis.

Defendants, by contrast, in powerful briefs and arguments, point to what they believe are critical defects in the plaintiffs' case on the facts and the law requiring not only denial of class certification, but dismissal of the case. They contend that they committed no fraud, that the statute of limitations has run, and that class action procedures are not applicable. Accordingly, they move to dismiss and to deny class certification.

In considering the matter as it now stands, two powerful factors should be kept in mind: First, is the jury's constitutional role and its vast discretion in evaluating evidence in a civil suit of this kind under Amendment VII of the United States Constitution. The jury's power and capacity to deal with complex facts and come to a reasonable resolution of a dispute should not be underestimated.

Second, is the power of the American legal system to overcome a defense that plaintiffs' claims are so enormous in scope and time, and in diverse persons affected, that they can never be fairly adjudicated in a reasonably comprehensive and relatively inexpensive way. In this connection it is well to recall a central theme of our American legal system: ubi jus, ibi remedium — each right has a remedy. Every violation of a right should have a remedy in court, if that is possible.

The very essence of civil liberty certainly consists in the right of every individual to claim the protection of the laws, whenever he receives an injury. One of the first duties of government is to afford that protection. . . .

"[I]t is a general and indisputable rule, that where there is a legal right, there is also a legal remedy by suit or action at law, whenever that right is invaded." . . .

"[E]very right, when withheld, must have a remedy, and every injury its proper redress." The government of the United States has been emphatically termed a government of laws, and not of men. It will certainly cease to deserve this high appellation, if the laws furnish no remedy for the violation of a vested legal right.

Marbury v. Madison, 1 Cranch U.S. 137, 163 (1803) (quoting 3 William Blackstone, Commentaries 23, 109).

In modern times, at least since adoption of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure and Evidence, the ancient maxim is modified to read, "each violation of a right should have a practicable remedy." A remedy that is impracticable in execution is — for those whose legal rights have been violated — no remedy at all. Procedures developed through American class action jurisprudence should not be frustrated when a large number of small claims can be aggregated and tried in a way fair to both plaintiffs and defendants. Current widespread partial acknowledgment by defendants of the dangers of their product and alleged efforts to reduce smoking by minors and others does not negate any liability for past delicts not subject to the statute of limitations.

Resolution of many of the factual disputes in the case depends upon widely divergent possible inferences that may be drawn from a huge amount of already available evidence of activities by defendants and members of the putative class. While the American jury has been more and more controlled by devices such as summary judgment, the strong policy embodied in Amendment VII, and the presumption that the system can provide a practical remedy for a widespread violation of a right, requires allowing jurors to draw necessary operative factual conclusions wherever reasonable minds could differ.

In the instant case the wisdom embodied in the Constitution is reflected in the ability of a fair cross section of the community to appreciate and understand evidence of why people smoke, why they do it in certain ways, and what impact actions and policies of defendants in such matters as advertising have had in influencing behavior. The federal petty civil jury provides the ultimate focus group of the law.

In deciding the balance between plaintiffs and defendants, the scale tips heavily in the instant case in favor of allowing a jury rather than a judge to decide the case. Here, in a litigation that arguably might go either way on inferences and facts, the Constitution and basic principle point to certification of the class, allowing the matter to proceed before a jury in a way that is practicable. Denial of motions to dismiss and to exclude relevant and reliable proof, scientific and otherwise, will permit the jury to decide the dispute fairly.

Whether plaintiffs can overcome the defendants' objections to their proof is subject to trial by jury. There is enough merit to both plaintiffs' and defendants' contentions to permit the litigation to go forward. If, as contended by plaintiffs, a huge fraud was perpetrated on tens of millions of people causing them billions of dollars in loss — measured largely by the difference between the value people were led to believe they were getting when they bought "light" cigarettes for safety, and what they received, a non-safe product — recovery dependent on proof should be allowed. The extensive evidence introduced on preliminary motions supports certification of the class and denial of defendants' motions for summary judgment.

While evidence of fraud on the class appears to be quite strong — and defendants have been less than candid in insisting that there was no fraud — evidence of the percentage of the class which was defrauded and the amount of economic damages it suffered appears to be quite weak — and plaintiffs have been less than candid in failing to acknowledge that deficiency in their proof.

The court in United States v. Philip Morris, No. 99-2496, (D.D.C. Aug. 17, 2006), described in Part II.D, infra and excerpted in Appendix A, infra, has estimated that some fifty percent of those who smoked "light" cigarettes would not have done so had they known the truth. See Appendix A at p. 1203, infra. This estimate, strongly relied on by plaintiffs in argument, see Transcript of Sept. 13, 2006, at 52:5-13, 157:22-159:7, does not fill the gap in their proof since, even if the court was right in United States v. Philip Morris, a significant portion of that fifty percent might have smoked other types of cigarettes purchased at the same price "lights" were selling for. Contrasting the real diverse universe of "lights" smokers with the counterfactual universe of fully advised "lights" smokers to determine the impact of the fraud on the size of the market and its nature for damage purposes is a daunting enterprise even with the many proffered experts holding up their statistical lanterns to help in the search for the truth.

There is considerable merit to defendants' experts' position that many, if not all, the plaintiffs would have bought these light cigarettes even if they knew they provided no health advantage over regular cigarettes, and that they received full value for their money. There are also serious objections to the plaintiffs' plan to divide any damages based on the relative number of cigarettes claimed to have been bought by claimants during the period found applicable by the jury, with cy pres division of the remainder. This form of fluid recovery tends — like almost all aggregate litigation — to overcompensate some and undercompensate other members of the class who may have relied differently on the "lights" designation and may have acted differently and for different reasons relevant to damages. Nevertheless, serious and unique factual-substantive issues now presented can be resolved by the jury with the aid of experts and statistical proof. If plaintiffs are right, they should not be fobbed off by real and imagined barriers of proof and management problems that can be circumvented in a fair adjudication.

Essentially, the issue before the court is not whether a fraud case be proven, but whether damages can be proven for the period since each smoker started smoking, failed to stop, switched to, or started with "lights" rather than the standard cigarettes in vogue up to the introduction of "lights" on a large scale. That introduction to "light" smoking and encouragement of continued use by defendants was allegedly in response to a widespread fright induced by the Surgeon General's reports and other warnings of hundreds of thousands of deaths caused yearly by cancer attributable to smoking.

Plaintiffs have demonstrated that they may be able to produce sufficient proof to satisfy a jury as to damages based largely on statistics, the law of large numbers, and their experts' analyses to show a reasonable estimate of total damages, without producing proof of reliance and fraud as to each of millions of smokers, with a damage figure assigned to each smoker and each year that he or she smoked.

If each smoker must be considered separately, as defendants suggest is the case, it would be impossible to proceed with a suit of this nature even if it were absolutely clear that each plaintiff had been damaged in the manner plaintiffs allege. The transactional costs and the relatively small recovery for the difference in value between what an individual smoker paid for and what he received would result in damages measured in tens or hundreds of dollars. The huge costs in bringing this action could not be supported by such individual adjudications.

The question then becomes whether the American legal system, faced with an alleged massive fraud, must throw up its hands and conclude that it has no effective remedy for what at this stage of the litigation must be assumed to be a huge continuing violation of consumers' rights. In the American legal system, whose watchword has been, as already noted, "no right without a remedy," the answer is that modern civil procedure, scientific analysis, and the law of large numbers used by statisticians provide a legal basis for a practical and effective remedy. The plaintiffs are entitled to the chance to prove their allegations.

Candor impels recognition of the fact that the Courts of Appeals have not been kind to massive claims against tobacco companies. Despite repeated findings of fact by judges and juries supporting claims of fraud, appellate courts have repeatedly dismissed such cases whether the claim was for consumer fraud, personal injury, or third party damages for costs of medical treatment. The defendants make a strong case that this suit, too, must founder on that appellate predilection for individual suits.

The case comes down to the role of the jury: should it be permitted to decide this vexing private litigation on the basis of somewhat dubious arguments and questionable proofs when the decision has so many important public social overtones, or should the judges themselves decide by holding that the matter is beyond the ken of a reasonable jury? Here, the fundamentals of the Constitution provide the answer. The first Congress and the States that then constituted the Union still speak clearly enough:

AMENDMENT VII RIGHTS IN CIVIL CASES

In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved, and no fact tried by a jury, shall be otherwise re-examined in any Court of the United States, than according to the rules of the common law.

See also Brink's Inc. v. City of New York, 717 F.2d 700, 711 (2d Cir. 1983) ("There is no bright line that divides evidence worthy of consideration by a jury, although subject to heavy counter-attack, from evidence that is not. Especially because of the guaranty of the Seventh Amendment, a federal court must be exceedingly careful not to set the threshold to the jury room too high.") (quoting Herman Schwabe, Inc. v. United Shoe Machinery Corp., 297 F.2d 906, 912 (2d Cir.), cert. denied, 369 U.S. 865, 82 S. Ct. 1031 (1962)).

If this case presents issues for the jury — as is now the decision of this court — then both the certification question and defense motions for summary judgment should be — and now are — decided in plaintiffs' favor. That the court believes, on the evidence thus far produced, that the amount of possible damages has been grossly exaggerated by plaintiffs is not a basis for denying their right to a jury trial. Adjustments to damages can be made after all the evidence is in and the jury has made its decision, if that decision is unreasonable.

In Part II and Appendices A, B, C, and D, allegations and prior findings of fact against the tobacco companies on the fraud issue are sampled: First, is the general fraud in hiding the dangers of smoking, and second, is the particular fraud respecting lights. Appendix E includes portions of a United States Surgeon General's report on the health risks posed by "light" cigarettes and the history of their development. Appendix F includes portions of a recent Commonwealth of Massachusetts report on continuing increases in nicotine inhaled from cigarettes, including those designated as "light." In Part III, the law of RICO is analyzed and defendants' central motions for dismissal considered.

In Part IV the court considers the role of collateral estoppel in this litigation. Whether an adjudication against either side would be binding on collateral estoppel grounds in suits based on substantive theories similar to the one implicated in the present litigation when recovery is sought for physical injury to smokers rather than economic loss from the purchase of overpriced cigarettes is important. Recoveries for medical damage to the person of smokers are enormously higher than those sought now. This legal problem and the related problem of splitting a cause of action, also discussed in Part IV, do not trump class action advantages since members of the class can opt out. It is a factor, however, that needs evaluation in the context of certification.

In Parts V and VI, the parties' additional motions for summary judgment are discussed and resolved. Part VII addresses the motion for class certification. The question of class certification is critical for this court and the Court of Appeals. No individual can afford to prosecute the case alone. Denial of certification here or on appeal would constitute a "death knell." Part VIII contains an analysis pursuant to Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence of the proposed testimony of experts for defendants and plaintiffs to determine whether a jury should be permitted to hear them; it is concluded that most experts of both defendants and plaintiffs should be heard. Part IX considers management issues, including the use of aggregate proof and fluid recovery.

Part X considers application of Rule 23(f) or section 1292(b) of title 18 to an interlocutory appeal. Based on experience with the trial and other disposition of a number of aggregate tobacco actions in this court, it is the opinion of the court that this class action can be tried to a final judgment that provides appropriate protection against relitigation of the issues adjudicated with fidelity to the applicable substantive law. Federal courts have the institutional capacity to conduct these proceedings. The representation of defendants and plaintiffs is adequate to conduct the litigation for the benefit of all persons whose interests are being adjudicated.

An immediate stay is rejected in Part XI. The Court of Appeals has the power to grant such a stay, but the case, in the trial court's opinion, should promptly proceed in view of its long history.

Part XII orders that the class sought by plaintiffs be certified. The motions for summary judgment are denied.

Numerous interlocutory orders have been issued in this litigation. See Schwab v. Philip Morris, No. 04-CV-1945, 2006 WL 721368 (E.D.N.Y. Mar. 20, 2006) (overruling plaintiffs' objections to magistrate judge's orders); 2005 WL 3032556 (E.D.N.Y. Nov. 14, 2005) (discussing fluid recovery); 2005 WL 2467766 (E.D.N.Y. Oct. 6, 2005) (denying defendants' motion for summary judgment on statute of limitations); 2005 WL 2401647 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 29, 2005) (Daubert issues); 2005 WL 2401645 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motions for partial summary judgment and application of collateral estoppel); 2005 WL 2401635 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying defendants' motion to dismiss claims based on increased mutagenicity of "light" cigarettes); 2005 WL 2401638 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion to exclude testimony that "light" cigarettes are safer than regular cigarettes); 2005 WL 2401639 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' Rule 16(c) motion for simplification of the issues); 2005 WL 2401642 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying defendant BATCo's motion for summary judgment on all claims); 2005 WL 2401643 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 27, 2005) (denying defendants' motion to exclude expert testimony on the impact of "light" cigarette marketing on smoking rates); 2005 WL 2401565 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion for partial summary judgment on the existence of defendants' conspiracy); 2005 WL 2401353 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (granting defendant British American Tobacco p.l.c.'s motion to dismiss); 2005 WL 2401350 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion for partial summary judgment on defendants' claim that they complied with the directives of the public health community in developing "light" cigarettes); 2005 WL 2401276 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion for partial summary judgment on defendants' claim that smokers knew about compensation and so were not defrauded); 2005 WL 2401633 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion for a permanent injunction prohibiting defendants from marketing or selling any cigarette with a "light" or "lights" descriptor); 2005 WL 2401196 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 26, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion for partial summary judgment on the meaning of the "light" descriptor); 2005 WL 2303821 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 22, 2005) (granting defendants' motion for partial summary judgment on plaintiffs' claims for equitable relief); 2005 WL 2303822 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 22, 2005) (denying plaintiffs' motion to strike defendants' employee-expert reports but requiring those reports to meet the standards of Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 26(a)(2)(B)); 2005 WL 2303823 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 22, 2005) (granting defendants' motion to exclude the expert testimony of plaintiffs' expert on business ethics); 2005 WL 2293381 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 21, 2005) (denying defendants' motion for an immediate stay of all proceedings); 2005 WL 2155141 (E.D.N.Y. Aug. 31, 2005) (excluding from consideration on interlocutory orders certain plaintiffs' experts' reports); 228 F.R.D. 165 (E.D.N.Y. 2005) (preliminary reflections and questions for the parties). This memorandum and order incorporates and modifies the above orders.

II. Allegations

A. Burden of Proof 1. Class Certification

On a motion for class certification, plaintiffs bear the burden of proving that the requirements of Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure have been met. Amchem Prods., Inc. V. Windsor, 521 U.S. 591, 614, 117 S. Ct. 2231 (1997); Caridad v. Metro-North Commuter R.R., 191 F.3d 283, 291 (2d Cir. 1999). At this stage in the litigation they need not show that they are likely to prevail on the merits. Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 417 U.S. 156, 178 (1974). But a "rigorous analysis" to determine that the Rule 23 requirements are met must be conducted. Gen. Tel. Co. of Southwest v. Falcon, 457 U.S. 147, 161 (1982). While it is sometimes mistakenly suggested that "a motion for class certification is not an occasion for examination of the merits of the case,'" In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. 65, 93 (S.D.N.Y. 2004), the courts should not launch the heavy and expensive machinery of the class action unless there is a chance for a recovery. In any event, since defendants combine their opposition to certification with a motion for summary judgment, the merits must be considered.

2. Summary Judgment

Plaintiffs need not prove that they will prevail at trial in order to survive a motion for summary judgment. Summary judgment is appropriate only if "there is no genuine issue as to any material fact and . . . the moving party is entitled to a judgment as a matter of law." Anderson v. Liberty Lobby, Inc., 477 U.S. 242, 248, 106 S. Ct. 2505 (1986). See also Mitchell v. Washingtonville Central School District, 190 F.3d 1, 5 (2d Cir. 1999).

The burden rests initially with the moving party to demonstrate the absence of a genuine issue of material fact. Goenaga v. March of Dimes Birth Defects Found., 51 F.3d 14, 18 (2d Cir. 1995); see also Celotex Corp. v. Catrett, 477 U.S. 317, 322-23, 106 S. Ct. 2548 (1986). If the moving party appears to meet this burden, the opposing party must produce evidence that raises a material question of fact to defeat the motion. See Fed.R.Civ.P. 56(e). This evidence may not consist of "mere conclusory allegations, speculation or conjecture[.]" Cifarelli v. Village of Babylon, 93 F.3d 47, 51 (2d Cir. 1996). See also Delaware Hudson Ry. v. Consolidated Rail Corp., 902 F.2d 174, 178 (2d Cir. 1990) ("Conclusory allegations will not suffice to create a genuine issue.").

The mere existence of some peripheral factual disputes will not defeat an otherwise properly supported motion for summary judgment. Anderson, 477 U.S. at 247, 106 S.Ct. 2505. "[O]nly disputes over facts that might affect the outcome of the suit under the governing law will properly preclude the entry of summary judgment. Factual disputes that are irrelevant or unnecessary will not be counted." Id. at 248.

In deciding the motion, all inferences from, and ambiguities in, the underlying facts are to be resolved in favor of the party opposing summary judgment. Matsushita Elec. Indus. Co. v. Zenith Radio Corp., 475 U.S. 574, 587-88, 106 S. Ct. 1348 (1986). Only when reasonable minds could not differ as to the import of the proffered evidence is summary judgment proper. See Anderson, 477 U.S. at 250-52; Bryant v. Maffucci, 923 F.2d 979, 982 (2d Cir. 1991).

"In considering the motion, the court's responsibility is not to resolve disputed issues of fact but to assess whether there are factual issues to be tried." Knight v. U.S. Fire Ins. Co., 804 F.2d 9, 11 (2d Cir. 1986). Critical is recognition of the jury's fact-finding primacy:

It is well established that credibility assessments, choices between conflicting versions of the events, and the weighing of evidence are matters for the jury, not for the court on a motion for summary judgment. If, as to the issue on which summary judgment is sought, there is any evidence in the record from which a reasonable inference could be drawn in favor of the opposing party, summary judgment is improper.

Curry v. City of Syracuse, 316 F.3d 324, 333 (2d Cir. 2003) (quotation marks omitted).

Defendants in this case have outproduced plaintiffs — in documents, number of experts, etc. — by at least two to one. Yet summary judgment, even in a large, complicated litigation such as this one, does not hinge on volume. If plaintiffs' legal theory is sound, and if they can demonstrate that proof is available to support it, summary judgment for defendants is inappropriate. The materials supplied by both parties demonstrate that plaintiffs have available sufficient evidence, and a legal theory sufficiently sound, to withstand a motion for summary judgment.

B. Sources of Proof

The record is immense. Plaintiffs and defendants have submitted 200 volumes of documentary evidence, expert reports, and briefs. They have appeared before the court numerous times since suit was filed in May 2004. Argument on the dispositive motions was heard over two days in September 2005 and again in September 2006. Discovery was conducted under Magistrate Judge Steven Gold for over a year and a half. The docket contains some 1000 entries.

Aspects of the cigarette litigation before this and other courts provide additional sources of proof for decision on the summary judgment and certification motions. See, e.g., United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., No. 99-2496, 2006 WL 2380622 (D.D.C. Aug. 17, 2006) (part 1 of 6) (final order containing findings of fact and law after 9-month bench trial on federal government's civil RICO suit against tobacco manufacturers for mail and wire fraud); Davies v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., No. 04-2-08174-2, 2006 WL 1600067 (Wash. Super. May 26, 2006) (denying certification of class of Washington smokers of Marlboro Lights alleging fraud under state consumer protection act); Pearson v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 0211-11819, 2006 WL 663004 (Or. Cir. Feb. 23, 2006) (denying certification of class of Oregon smokers of Marlboro Lights alleging fraud under state consumer protection act); Aspinall v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., 813 N.E.2d 476 (Mass. 2004) (affirming lower court's certification of class of Massachusetts smokers of Marlboro Lights for fraud under state consumer protection act); Curtis v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. PI 01-018042, 2004 WL 2776228 (Minn. Dist. Ct. Nov. 29, 2004) (certifying class of Minnesota smokers of Marlboro Lights for fraud under state consumer protection act); Craft v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 002-00406A, 2003 WL 23139381 (Mo. Cir. Dec. 31, 2003) (denying summary judgment in class action by Missouri smokers of Marlboro Lights for fraud under state consumer protection act); Craft v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 002-00406A, 2003 WL 23355745 (Mo. Cir. Dec. 31, 2003) (granting class certification in same suit); Price v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 00-L-112, 2003 WL 22597608 (Ill. Cir. March 21, 2003) (findings of fact and law after bench trial on Illinois smokers' class action against tobacco manufacturers for "light" cigarette fraud under state consumer protection law), rev'd on other grounds, 219 Ill. 2d 182 (Ill. 2005) (holding that the action was barred by the state act); In re Simon II Litigation, 211 F.R.D. 86 (E.D.N.Y. 2002) (certifying nationwide class for litigation of punitive damages for fraud by tobacco companies), rev'd, 407 F.3d 125 (2d Cir. 2005); Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey v. Philip Morris, Inc., 178 F. Supp. 2d 198 (E.D.N.Y. 2001) (discussing jury findings after 44 days of trial on health insurer's claim that tobacco companies distorted public body of knowledge about cigarettes in violation of New York's consumer protection statute), rev'd on other grounds, 344 F.3d 211 (2d Cir. 2003) and 393 F.3d 312 (2d Cir. 2004); Falise v. American Tobacco Co., 94 F. Supp. 2d 316 (E.D.N.Y. 2000) (denying summary judgment in suit by trust established to compensate victims of asbestos against tobacco manufacturers for their alleged role in contributing to the trust claimants' injuries).

Of particular note is the comprehensive recent opinion in the federal government's civil RICO suit against these same defendants, alleging in part the same fraudulent behavior as is now being charged. The opinion runs to 1,742 pages and is minutely documented. See United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., supra. Defendants object to the use of the district court's findings in that suit — and the evidence upon which they were based — on the motions in this litigation. They argue that, because the district court considered the entire "low tar" market segment, which includes brands not bearing the "lights" descriptor, much of the evidence from the prior suit is irrelevant to this suit. The argument ignores the problem pervading both suits: the health concerns of smokers, which defendants attempted to deflect by their related "lights" and "low tar" advertisements. "Low tar" and "lights" findings in the suit by the United States in the District of Columbia provide substantial support for plaintiffs' claims. Those findings, even if not decisive, supply persuasive muster for the case plaintiffs seek to construct.

The standard of probability under the rule [of relevance] is "more . . . probable than it would be without the evidence." Any more stringent requirement is unworkable and unrealistic. As McCormick says, "A brick is not a wall". . . .

Fed.R.Evid. 401 advisory committee notes (1972) (citations omitted).

Plaintiffs have chosen a sensible class definition based, perhaps, on prior experience with other "lights" cases, see Part III.E.3.b.i (noting proposed class counsel's previous involvement in such suits), or in anticipation of what a jury may find persuasive. That they could have sought a broader class is no bar to evidence relevant both to the present class and the unchosen more general class. Contrary to defendants' characterization, plaintiffs' allegations do not depend solely on the use of the "lights" descriptor. See, e.g., proposed expert testimony of Marvin E. Goldberg, Part VIII.F.1.g, infra, on variety of marketing techniques employed by defendants, including color and imagery. Evidence of defendants' conduct and its effects on the entire "low tar" market is relevant to their conduct and effect on the "lights" segment of that market. Subject to hearsay, prejudice, and other exclusions, if particular testimony, scientific studies, or internal industry documents could contribute to a jury's understanding of defendants' conduct and plaintiffs' beliefs and alleged injuries with respect to "light" cigarettes, they are admissible. See also Part VIII.D, infra (rejecting a similar argument with respect to expert testimony).

C. Overview of the Conspiracy and Fraud

As noted, the fraud and conspiracy alleged here have been the subject of intense litigation in recent years. The court merely limns the allegations here. Appendices A, B, C, and D, infra, contain some of the detailed factual findings from previous litigations.

If plaintiffs' allegations are true, defendants have engaged in a fifty-year still continuing conspiracy to deceive the public about the risks of smoking in order to prevent restrictive governmental regulation and prop up cigarette sales that otherwise would have sagged as smokers began to understand the array of diseases caused by smoking. As part of this conspiracy, defendants reacted to growing consensus in the late 1960s by public health officials that smoking cigarettes causes lung cancer and numerous other diseases by promoting new brands as low in tar. This conspiracy was neatly summarized by the district court in the government's suit against the defendant companies after a nine-month bench trial:

Defendants . . . marketed and promoted their low tar brands as being less harmful than conventional cigarettes [when they knew they were not]. . . . By making these false claims, Defendants [gave] smokers an acceptable alternative to quitting smoking, as well as an excuse for not quitting.

Defendants used a combination of techniques to market and promote their low tar brands. Defendants' marketing has emphasized claims of low tar and nicotine delivery accompanied by statements that smoking these brands would reduce exposure to the "controversial" elements of cigarette smoke (i.e., tar). Since the 1970s, Defendants also have used so-called brand descriptors such as "light" and "ultra light" to communicate reassuring messages that these are healthier cigarettes and to suggest that smoking low tar cigarettes is an acceptable alternative to quitting. In addition to appealing advertising and easily-remembered brand descriptors, Defendants have used sophisticated marketing imagery such as lighter color cigarette packaging and white tipping paper to reinforce the same message that these brands were low in tar and therefore less harmful. . . .

Even as they engaged in a campaign to market and promote filtered and low tar cigarettes as less harmful than conventional ones, Defendants either lacked evidence to substantiate their claims or knew them to be false. Indeed, internal industry documents reveal Defendants' awareness by the late 1960s/early 1970s that, because low tar cigarettes do not actually deliver the low levels of tar and nicotine which are advertised, they are unlikely to provide any clear health benefit to human smokers . . . when compared to regular, full flavor cigarettes.

As Defendants have long been aware, nicotine delivered by cigarettes is addictive. . . . Defendants' internal documents demonstrate their understanding that, in order to obtain an amount of nicotine sufficient to satisfy their addiction, smokers of low tar cigarettes modify their smoking behavior, or "compensate," for the reduced nicotine yields by taking more frequent puffs, inhaling smoke more deeply, holding smoke in their lungs longer, covering cigarette ventilation holes with fingers or lips, and/or smoking more cigarettes. . . . As a result of this nicotine-driven smoker behavior, smokers of light cigarettes boost their intake of tar, thus negating what Defendants have long promoted as the primary health-related benefit of light cigarettes: lower tar intake.

Defendants did not disclose the full extent and depth of their knowledge and understanding of smoker compensation to the public health community or to government regulators.

Defendants' conduct relating to low tar cigarettes was intended to further their overarching economic goal: to keep smokers smoking; to stop smokers from quitting; to encourage people . . . to start smoking; and to maintain or increase corporate profits.

United States v. Philip Morris, at ¶¶ 2023-2028.

D. Other "Light" Cigarette Fraud Actions

Class actions alleging fraud in the sales and marketing of "light" cigarettes have been brought in a number of state — and occasionally federal — courts in the past several years. See, e.g., Flanagan v. Altria Group, Inc., No. 05-71697 (E.D. Mich.) (filed April 29, 2005); Watson v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. 03-CV-4661 (Ark. Cir.) (filed April 18, 2003); Virden v. Altria Group, Inc., No. 03-C-64 M (W.Va. Cir.) (filed March 28, 2003); Pearson v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 0211-11819 (Or. Cir.) (filed Nov. 20, 2002); Curtis v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. PI 01-018042 (Minn. Dist. Ct.) (filed Nov. 28, 2001); Craft v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. 002-00406A (Mo. Cir.) (filed Feb. 14, 2000); Marrone v. Philip Morris Cos., No. 99 CIV 0954 (Ohio Ct. Com. Pl.) (filed Nov. 8, 1999); McClure v. Altria Group, Inc., No. 99C148 (Tenn. Cir. Ct.) (filed Jan. 19, 1999); Trombino v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., No. L-11263-98 (N.J.Super.Ct.) (filed Jan. 19, 1999); Aspinall v. Philip Morris Cos., No. 98-6002 (Mass.Sup.Ct.) (filed Nov. 25, 1998); Cummis v. Philip Morris Cos., No. L-2114-98 (N.J.Super.Ct.) (filed July 9, 1998); Oliver v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., No. 268 (Pa. Ct. Com. Pl.) (filed Mar. 6, 1998). Results have been mixed.

In several, certification was granted over challenges on the basis of individual causation and reliance. See, e.g., Aspinall v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., 442 Mass. 381, 392-93, 813 N.E.2d 476 (Mass. 2004) (approving class certification; defendants' common course of conduct predominated over variations in damages; "pragmatically, [a class action] is the only method whereby purchasers of ["light" cigarettes] can seek redress for the alleged deception"); Curtis v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. PI 01-018042, 2004 WL 2776228, at *4 (Minn. Dist. Ct. Nov. 29, 2004) (on reconsideration, granting certification; defendants' deliberately deceptive conduct justified presumption of reliance; as to proof of injury, because "'it may be unlikely that any individual would smoke a cigarette the exact same way twice[,] . . . it is probable that no smoker received the promised benefit of lowered tar and nicotine every time he or she smoked a ["light"] cigarette'") (quoting Aspinall); Craft v. Philip Morris Companies, Inc., No. 002-00406A, 2003 WL 23355745, at *4, *10 (Mo. Cir. Dec. 31, 2003) (compensation by smokers common enough to support certification; variations in damages insufficient to deny certification). In others, questions of individual causation and reliance were found to predominate and render certification inappropriate. See, e.g., Davies v. Philip Morris USA Inc., No. 04-2-08174-2, 2006 WL 1600067, at *3 (Wash. Super. May 26, 2006) (finding that individual causation questions predominated over common questions of defendants' conduct); Pearson v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 0211-11819, 2006 WL 663004, at *7, *10 (Or. Cir. Feb. 23, 2006) (placing burden on each plaintiff to demonstrate that he or she was not receiving less tar; individual questions predominated because plaintiffs did not present any evidence purporting to prove reliance and causation on class-wide basis).

Some of these cases have failed on state law issues irrelevant to the instant suit. See, e.g., Marrone v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 110 Ohio St. 3d 5, 13, 850 N.E.2d 31 (Ohio 2006) (class certification denied; class action only maintainable under state Consumer Sales Practices Act if defendant's alleged violation is "substantially similar to an act that was previously declared to be deceptive"); Price v. Philip Morris, Inc., 219 Ill.2d 182, 196, 265-66, 848 N.E.2d 1 (Ill. 2005) (consent orders between FTC and two defendants restricting "use of the words 'low,' 'lower,' or 'reduced' or like qualifying terms" with respect to the amount of tar in its cigarettes "specifically authorize[d] all United States tobacco companies to utilize" such terms, including "light," "so long as the descriptive terms are accompanied by a clear and conspicuous disclosure of the 'tar' and nicotine content," barring suit under Illinois state statute protecting defendants against consumer fraud actions based on actions "specifically authorized by law administered by any regulatory body or officer acting under statutory authority of this State or the United States"); Flanagan v. Altria Group, Inc., No. 05-71697, 2005 WL 2769010 (E.D. Mich. Oct. 25, 2005) (same under Michigan Consumer Protection Act).

In every case, the class sought was restricted to smokers of particular brands residing within a particular state. See, e.g., Flanagan (smokers of Cambridge Lights and Marlboro Lights in Michigan); Price (smokers of Cambridge Lights and Marlboro Lights in Illinois); Aspinall (smokers of Marlboro Lights in Massachusetts). Yet as shown in Appendix E, infra, the National Cancer Institute's 2001 monograph on "light" cigarettes ("Monograph 13"), and Appendix F, infra, the Massachusetts Department of Health analysis of increasing nicotine in cigarettes, the alleged frauds and harms were widespread across the industry and the country.

The federal government conducted, at great expense, a civil prosecution under RICO against the defendants named in this suit, who are the dominant members of the tobacco industry. United States v. Philip Morris, No. 99-2496 (filed Sept. 22, 1999). Alleging fraud with regards to all cigarettes sold by the defendants, including the "light" cigarettes at issue in this case, it sought disgorgement of the tobacco companies' profits traceable to cigarette sales to addicted youths between 1971 and 2001 — an estimated 289 billion dollars — to repay health expenditures the federal government had paid or would pay to treat tobacco-related illnesses. See United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 396 F.3d 1190, 1193 (D.C. Cir. 2005). An interlocutory ruling by the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia rendered disgorgement unavailable under the civil remedy provision relied upon by the government. Id. at 1202 (holding that 18 U.S.C. § 1964(a) is limited to prospective remedies, of which disgorgement is not one). The district court then completed the bench trial and held in favor of the government on most claims. It entered an order prohibiting the use of descriptors such as "light," "mild," and "low tar," and enjoining defendants from making misleading statements about their products in the future, United States v. Philip Morris, 2006 WL 2380681, at *1 (final judgment and remedial order); directing defendants to issue corrective statements to clear up their prior misrepresentations, id. at *2-4; requiring defendants to be more transparent by maintaining document depositories and websites, id. at *4-7; and awarding costs to the government. Id. at *8.

No case has sought, as this one does, a nationwide class to recover economic damages stemming from the alleged "light" cigarette fraud perpetrated by the industry.

III. Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act

The Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act ("RICO") has strong civil as well as criminal implications. It makes it unlawful "for any person employed by or associated with any enterprise engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce, to conduct or participate, directly or indirectly, in the conduct of such enterprise's affairs through a pattern of racketeering activity or collection of unlawful debt" or "to conspire to violate" the Act. 18 U.S.C. §§ 1962(c), 1962(d). RICO defines "racketeering activity" as any act indictable under a list of provisions in title 18 of the United States Code, including sections 1341 and 1343, relating to mail and wire fraud. 18 U.S.C. § 1961(1)(B).

Persons "injured in [their] business or property by reason of a violation of" RICO's criminal provisions may bring a private suit. 18 U.S.C. § 1964(c). If successful, they "shall recover threefold the damages [they] sustain and the cost of the suit, including a reasonable attorney's fee." Id. This civil suit provision, no less than the rest of the RICO statute, is to be "liberally construed to effectuate its remedial purposes." Pub.L. 91-452, § 904(a), 84 Stat. 947 (1970). See Sedima, S.P.R.L. v. Imrex Co., Inc., 473 U.S. 479, 498, 105 S. Ct. 3275 (1985) ("The statute's 'remedial purposes' are nowhere more evident than in the provision of a private action for those injured by racketeering activity.").

Dispute over the exact contours of civil RICO is ongoing. Compare United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 396 F.3d 1190, 1197 (D.C. Cir. 2005) (disgorgement not a permissible remedy under civil RICO), with United States v. Carson, 52 F.3d 1173, 1182 (2d Cir. 1995) (disgorgement permissible but only if calibrated to restrain and prevent future conduct), and Richard v. Hoechst Celanese Chem. Group, Inc., 355 F.3d 345, 354-55 (5th Cir. 2003) (following Carson). Compare Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp., 373 F.3d 251, 262-63 (2d Cir. 2004) (reliance by plaintiff or third party on alleged mail or wire fraud is required), rev'd on other grounds, ___ U.S. ___, 126 S. Ct. 1991, 164 L.Ed.2d 720 (2006), with Systems Management, Inc. v. Loiselle, 303 F.3d 100, 104 (1st Cir. 2002) (reliance not required). No one doubts, however, that the statute relied upon by present plaintiffs provides a remedy for fraud perpetrated by legitimate businesses on their customers if the customers can establish that the fraud caused them a financial loss. See, e.g., Kemp v. American Tel. Tel. Co., 393 F.3d 1354, 1360 (11th Cir. 2004) (upholding class action jury verdict against phone company for fraudulent billing practices); Carnegie v. Household Int'l, Inc., 376 F.3d 656, 658-59 (7th Cir. 2004) (class of customers could sue tax preparers who were secretly self-dealing); Moore v. PaineWebber, Inc., 189 F.3d 165, 167 (2d Cir. 1999) (financial services company could be held liable to class for allegedly misrepresenting that its life insurance policies were akin to individual retirement accounts, "thereby tricking [class members] into buying life insurance with funds that they would otherwise have used for IRAs or similar investments").

Civil RICO is akin to a Russian matryoshka doll, with statutes nested inside of statutes. It demands that a plaintiff prove injury stemming from a violation of criminal RICO, which in turn requires proof of a pattern of violations of one or more specific state or federal criminal statutes. As the appellate courts have built specific requirements into the substance of the somewhat vague criminal and civil provisions, each layer has become more complex.

All defendants move for summary judgment on issues of causation, injury, damages, and the statute of limitations. If a motion was granted on any one of these grounds, it would be fatal to the suit. For reasons indicated below, summary judgment is denied.

These motions take aim at the aggregate nature of this litigation. The discussion here sounds themes that will be heard again in the discussion of class certification. See Part VII, infra.

A. Violation of Criminal RICO

To sustain a claim under civil RICO, plaintiffs must first prove that defendants violated RICO's criminal provisions. 18 U.S.C. § 1964, supra. Plaintiffs here allege injury stemming from a pattern of racketeering activity by defendants (in violation of section 1962(c)) and a conspiracy to commit such activity (in violation of section 1962(d)).

1. Conduct of a Racketeering Enterprise (§ 1962(c))

To prove a violation of 1962(c), plaintiffs must demonstrate that defendants conducted or participated in the affairs of an enterprise through a pattern of racketeering activity. Sedima, 473 U.S. at 496.

a. Enterprise

An enterprise, as defined in the statute, "includes any individual, partnership, corporation, association, or other legal entity, and any union or group of individuals associated in fact although not a legal entity[.]" 18 U.S.C. § 1961(4). See also First Capital Asset Mgmt., Inc. v. Satinwood, Inc., 385 F.3d 159 (2d Cir. 2004) (quoting the statute).

A RICO enterprise is "a group of persons associated together for a common purpose of engaging in a course of conduct," the existence of which is proven "by evidence of an ongoing organization, formal or informal, and by evidence that the various associates function as a continuing unit." United States v. Turkette, 452 U.S. 576, 583, 101 S. Ct. 2524 (1981). The enterprise must be engaged in, or the activities of the enterprise must affect, interstate or foreign commerce. 18 U.S.C. § 1962. See also First Capital, 385 F.3d at 173 n. 12. Corporations qualify as persons under the act. See 18 U.S.C. § 1961(3) ("'[P]erson' includes any individual or entity capable of holding a legal or beneficial interest in property[.]").

Plaintiffs here allege an association in fact comprised of the named defendant corporations and industry organizations "whereby they coordinated their efforts and conducted their affairs for the past 50 years, with the likelihood of future continuance, in order to achieve the shared goals of preserving and expanding the market for cigarettes and maximizing their profits." Second Amended Complaint ("SAC") ¶ 187.

While denying the accuracy of the factual contentions underlying the claims, defendants do not deny that, if proved, plaintiffs' allegations would demonstrate the existence of an enterprise under the statute.

b. Conduct

A defendant "conduct[s] or participate[s], directly or indirectly, in the conduct of [an] enterprise's affairs," 18 U.S.C. § 1962(c), when it has "some part in directing those affairs." Reves v. Ernst Young, 507 U.S. 170, 179, 113 S. Ct. 1163 (1993). "Of course, the word 'participate' makes clear that RICO liability is not limited to those with primary responsibility for the enterprise's affairs, just as the phrase 'directly or indirectly' makes clear that RICO liability is not limited to those with a formal position in the enterprise; but some part in directing the enterprise's affairs is required." First Capital, 385 F.3d at 176 (quoting Reves) (alterations omitted).

"[O]ne is liable under RICO only if he participated in the operation or management of the enterprise itself." Id. (quoting Azrielli v. Cohen Law Offices, 21 F.3d 512, 521 (2d Cir. 1994)). See also Reves, 507 U.S. at 179 (approving this test). "In this Circuit, the 'operation or management' test typically has proven to be a relatively low hurdle for plaintiffs to clear, especially at the pleading stage." First Capital, 385 F.3d at 176. Whether a defendant operated or managed the affairs of an enterprise is "essentially [a question] of fact." Id.

With the exception of BATCo, defendants do not contest that, if true, plaintiffs' allegations would adequately demonstrate that, in a legal sense, defendants had operated or managed the alleged enterprise. See Part V.B, infra.

c. Racketeering activity

Racketeering activity is any of a number of violations of state and federal law listed in section 1961(1), including — as alleged in this and many other civil RICO cases — mail and wire fraud in violation of sections 1341 and 1343 of title 18. See 18 U.S.C. § 1961(1) (listing offenses); 18 U.S.C. § 1341 (criminalizing use of the mails to "obtain money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises"); 18 U.S.C. § 1343 (same by way of "wire, radio, or television communication in interstate . . . commerce"). Instances of racketeering activity are described as "predicate acts." See Sedima, 473 U.S. at 497.

In relevant part the mail fraud statute reads:

Whoever, having devised or intending to devise any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, [or] representations . . . for the purpose of executing such scheme or artifice or attempting so to do, places in any post office or authorized depository for mail matter, any matter or thing whatever to be sent or delivered by the Postal Service, or deposits or causes to be deposited any matter or thing whatever to be sent or delivered by any private or commercial interstate carrier, or takes or receives therefrom, any such matter or thing, or knowingly causes to be delivered by mail or such carrier according to the direction thereon, or at the place at which it is directed to be delivered by the person to whom it is addressed, any such matter or thing, shall be [guilty of a crime.]

18 U.S.C. § 1341.

In parallel language, the wire fraud provision reads in relevant part:

Whoever, having devised or intending to devise any scheme or artifice to defraud, or for obtaining money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, transmits or causes to be transmitted by means of wire, radio, or television communication in interstate or foreign commerce, any writings, signs, signals, pictures, or sounds for the purpose of executing such scheme or artifice, shall be [guilty of a crime.]

18 U.S.C. § 1343.

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has recently approved a simple charge defining a fraudulent "plan, device, or course of action" as follows:

The district court instructed the jury that the phrase "any scheme or artifice to defraud" is defined as:

[A]ny plan, device or course of action that deprives another of money or property by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations or promises. It is, in other words, a plan to deprive another of money or property by trick, deceit, deception, swindle or overreaching.

That instruction comports with the Supreme Court's command that the statute be read conjunctively to require that the defendant not only devise a scheme or artifice, but also use that scheme or artifice to obtain money or property.

United States v. Males, 459 F.3d 154, No. 04-2880, 2006 WL 2130413, at *3 (2d Cir. Aug. 1, 2006).

Plaintiffs allege that defendants used the mails and interstate communication wires to advertise deceptively, and make misleading public statements about the health risks of, "light" cigarettes, thereby obtaining plaintiffs' money by fraud. There are myriad examples relied upon by plaintiffs of acts violating these statutes. See SAC, App. B (non-exclusive list of predicate acts of mail and wire fraud).

d. Pattern

A civil RICO plaintiff must not only prove that the defendant engaged in acts defined as racketeering in section 1961(1) of title 18, but must also prove that these acts constituted a pattern. To establish such a pattern, a plaintiff must plead and prove at least two section 1961(1) predicate acts, show that the acts are related, and demonstrate that they amount to, or pose a threat of, continuing criminal activity. See 18 U.S.C.A. §§ 1961(1), 1962(c); H.J. Inc v. Northwestern Bell Tele. Co., 492 U.S. 229, 109 S. Ct. 2893 (1989); Economic Opportunity Com'n of Nassau County v. County of Nassau, Inc., 47 F. Supp. 2d 353 (E.D.N.Y. 1999).

Plaintiffs have pleaded nineteen predicate acts of mail and wire fraud. See SAC, App. B. Defendants do not contest that, for the purposes of summary judgment and certification, the acts are sufficiently related to each other and the alleged common purpose of defendants to constitute a pattern — or that, if proved, they would demonstrate a threat of continuing racketeering activity. They do not raise the judgment and injunction in United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A, infra, as a bar to a finding that there remains a threat of criminal conduct prohibited by RICO. 2. Conspiracy (§ 1962(d))

The conspiracy required is vanilla flavored. Two or more defendant corporations must have agreed explicitly or by implication to act together and commit two related criminal acts. Defendants argue that this provision requires that plaintiffs prove that each conspirator itself agreed to commit two predicate acts. In the seminal case Salinas v. United States, 522 U.S. 52, 118 S. Ct. 469 (1997), the Supreme Court held that the RICO conspiracy statute does not impose such a requirement. Id. at 63. Defendants contend, however, that the Salinas standard is limited to criminal cases. Relying on Cofacredit, S.A. v. Windsor Plumbing Supply Co., 187 F.3d 229, 244-45 (2d Cir. 1999), they submit that, in civil cases, the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit requires that each defendant agree that he would commit two predicate acts himself.

a. Cofacredit

While some language in Cofacredit may lend itself to this interpretation, defendants' contention is rejected for several reasons. First, imposing a stricter standard in civil cases is inconsistent with the broad holding of Salinas that the RICO conspiracy statute did not change well-established principles of conspiracy law. See Salinas, 522 U.S. at 63. Second, neither the Supreme Court nor the Second Circuit have distinguished between RICO conspiracy standards for criminal and civil cases. See Cofacredit, 187 F.3d at 244-45. Third, a construction of the standard for civil RICO conspiracy in line with the standard set forth in Salinas is supported by subsequent decisions in the Second Circuit and persuasive authority from other circuits. Finally, plaintiffs allege, and there is ample evidence to support, an agreement to take requisite action by each of the defendants. For purposes of a preliminary ruling on certification or summary judgment, plaintiffs satisfy both the narrow and broad readings of RICO's requirement for an agreement to commit two or more predicate acts.

In Cofacredit, the defendants were sued on multiple theories, including substantive and conspiracy RICO violations, for their involvement in a scheme to obtain financing from the plaintiffs by presenting sham invoices for factoring. Cofacredit, 187 F.3d at 234. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit found that there was insufficient evidence that the alleged predicate acts displayed the continuity necessary for a substantive RICO offense, or that the defendants agreed to commit additional predicate acts that, if committed, would have displayed the requisite continuity. Id. at 245.

The court applied a two-prong test in reaching this finding. First, a plaintiff must establish that the defendants "agreed to form and associate themselves with a RICO enterprise and that they agreed to commit two predicate acts in furtherance of a pattern of racketeering activity in connection with the enterprise." Id. at 244 (citing United States v. Sessa, 125 F.3d 68, 71 (2d Cir. 1997)). Second, a plaintiff must show that if the agreed-upon predicate acts had been carried out, they would have constituted a pattern of racketeering activity. Id. at 245 (citing Salinas, 522 U.S. at 65).

The case at bar concerns the interpretation of the second clause of the first prong: "they agreed to commit two predicate acts in furtherance of a pattern of racketeering activity." Syntactically, the clause may be understood either as requiring that each defendant agree that he would commit two predicate acts personally, or that the defendants agreed among themselves that one or some of them would commit two predicate acts. Only the latter interpretation is consistent with Supreme Court precedent, subsequent Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit cases, Second Circuit district courts' applications of the RICO conspiracy provision, and, finally, persuasive authority from other circuits. The fatal defect in plaintiff's claim in Cofacredit was that the predicate acts did not extend for a sufficient period to form a pattern of racketeering activity, no matter which defendant had agreed to commit them. Id. at 245.

b. Supreme Court precedent

This reading of Cofacredit to ease plaintiffs' burdens accords with the Supreme Court's holding in Salinas v. United States, 522 U.S. at 63, that the RICO conspiracy provision does not require that each defendant agree to commit two predicate acts personally. In Salinas, the defendant challenged his conviction for RICO conspiracy because the jury had not been instructed that he had to have agreed to commit two predicate acts personally. Id. at 61. The Supreme Court rejected that contention on two grounds. First, unlike the general federal conspiracy statute, 18 U.S.C. § 371, which requires that at least one of the conspirators commit an overt act to "effect the object of the conspiracy," section 1962(d) "broadened conspiracy coverage by omitting the requirement of an overt act." Id. at 61, 64. Second, the phrase "to conspire" should be interpreted according to well-established principles of conspiracy law, because section 1962(d) "did not . . . work the radical change of requiring the Government to prove each conspirator agreed that he would be the one to commit two predicate acts." Id. at 64.

Traditionally, conspiracy requires an agreement between two or more persons to commit an offense and an overt act in furtherance of the object of the conspiracy. United States v. Falcone, 311 U.S. 205, 207, 61 S. Ct. 204 (1940). After he has agreed to join the conspiracy, each co-conspirator is liable for the acts of his co-conspirators. See, e.g., Pinkerton v. U.S., 328 U.S. 640, 646-47, 66 S. Ct. 1180 (1946) ("[S]o long as the partnership in crime continues, the partners act for each other in carrying it forward. It is settled that an overt act of one partner may be the act of all without any new agreement specifically directed to that act."); Bannon v. U.S., 156 U.S. 464, 469, 15 S. Ct. 467 (1985) ("It has always been . . . that, after prima facie evidence of an unlawful combination has been introduced, the act of any one of the co-conspirators in furtherance of such combination may be properly given in evidence against all.").

In accordance with these traditional principles, the Court in Salinas held that the RICO conspiracy provision reaches a conspirator who "intend[s] to further an endeavor which, if completed, would satisfy all of the elements of a substantive criminal offense[. I]t suffices that he adopt the goal of furthering or facilitating the criminal endeavor." Salinas, 522 U.S. at 65. The requirement of two predicate acts for a substantive offense under section 1962(c) "makes no difference" in respect to the coverage of the conspiracy provision. Id. The Court recognized that some circuits may have required that each defendant agree that he would commit two predicate acts because "in some cases the connection the defendant had to the alleged enterprise or to the conspiracy to further it may be tenuous enough so that his own commission of two predicate acts may become an important part of the Government's case." Id. at 65-66, 118 S.Ct. 469. Nonetheless, the Court refused to import such limited considerations into the general definition of RICO conspiracy. Id. at 66, 118 S.Ct. 469.

In light of Salinas, Cofacredit should not be construed to require that each defendant agree that he would commit two predicate acts. Imposing that requirement would substantially depart from the traditional principle of conspiracy that supporters are liable for the acts of the perpetrators so long as they agree to pursue together the same criminal objective. See Salinas, 522 U.S. at 64. Such a departure would be inconsistent with the Supreme Court's understanding that Congress intended to preserve the conventional scope of conspiracy when it enacted the RICO conspiracy provision. Id. at 63.

Defendants contend that the standard set forth in Salinas is limited to criminal cases. This contention is rejected. If defendants' position were correct, Cofacredit would have distinguished its holding from Salinas and other criminal cases. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, however, did not distinguish — but rather explicitly relied on — criminal RICO conspiracy cases to establish the standard for RICO conspiracy. See Cofacredit, 187 F.3d at 244-45 (citing Salinas, 522 U.S. at 477, and United States v. Sessa, 125 F.3d 68, 71 (2d Cir. 1997)). In turn, the passage from Sessa relied on in Cofacredit quotes from another criminal case, United States v. Benevento, 836 F.2d 60, 73 (2d Cir. 1987).

The Supreme Court has not indicated that its holding in Salinas is limited to criminal cases. In Beck v. Prupis, 529 U.S. 494, 120 S. Ct. 1608 (2000), a case subsequent to Salinas, the Supreme Court rejected petitioner's suggestion that the court should look to civil, rather than criminal, conspiracy to interpret section 1962(d). Id. at 501 n. 6. Citing to Salinas, the Court stated that "the common law of criminal conspiracy . . . define[s] what constitutes a violation of § 1962(d)." Id. See also Smith v. Berg, 247 F.3d 532, 539 (3d Cir. 2001) ("[ Beck's] reference to Salinas does not in any way repudiate its holding about what constitutes a conspiracy violation or indicate that the violation is different in a civil context. . . .").

The Supreme Court did look to civil conspiracy law, however, for the "combined meaning" of section 1962(d) and section 1964(c), which provides for a private cause of action. Beck, 529 U.S. at 501 n. 6. The Court held that an "injury caused by an overt act that is not an act of racketeering or otherwise wrongful under RICO . . . is not sufficient to give rise to a cause of action under § 1964(c) for a violation of § 1962(d)." Id. at 505. As the Third Circuit has remarked, the decision in Beck "actually limits the class of plaintiffs whose injuries are cognizable; it does not in any way limit the class of defendants who are liable." Smith, 247 F.3d at 539 n. 13. Yet, even assuming the civil conspiracy requirement of an injury caused by an overt act indirectly bears on the standard for conspiracy under section 1962(d), it would still not mandate that each particular conspirator agree that he would commit the wrongful act. See Beck, 529 U.S. at 506-07 ("[A] plaintiff could, through a § 1964(c) suit for a violation of § 1962(d) sue co-conspirators who might not themselves have violated one of the substantive provisions of § 1962."). As the Court explained, under the common law, once a conspirator commits a tortious act, then the other co-conspirators are jointly liable. Id. at 503, 120 S.Ct. 1608 (conspiracy is a mechanism for "subjecting co-conspirators to liability when one of their member committed a tortious act"; "some wrongful act to the plaintiff's damage must have been done by one or more of the defendants, and the fact of a conspiracy merely bears on the liability of the various defendants as joint tort-feasors"; conspiracy is "a means for establishing vicarious liability for the underlying tort") (citations omitted).

c. Subsequent decisions of the Second Circuit and district courts

The jurisprudence of the Second Circuit subsequent to Cofacredit also lends no support to defendants' argument. In Baisch v. Gallina, 346 F.3d 366, 376-77 (2d Cir. 2003), the defendant contended that he was not a proper defendant in substantive and conspiracy RICO claims because he committed no predicate acts, did not operate or manage the enterprise, and his knowledge of fraud was insufficient to support a RICO conspiracy finding. The court rejected his arguments, and, relying on Salinas, held that "in the civil context, a plaintiff must allege that the defendant knew about and agreed to facilitate the scheme." Id. at 377. Since plaintiff had presented a genuine question as to defendant's knowledge of the racketeering enterprise and his willingness to promote it, summary judgment for defendant was not appropriate. Id.

Recent decisions by district courts in the Second Circuit have not required that a defendant agree to the personal commission of two predicate acts in the civil context. See, e.g., Zito v. Leasecomm Corp., No. 02-CIV-8074, 2004 WL 2211650, at *18 (S.D.N.Y. Sept. 30, 2004) ("[I]t is possible to violate § 1962(d) by conspiring with others, even without committing or agreeing to commit any predicate acts oneself."); Davis Lee Pharmacy, Inc. V. Manhattan Cent. Capital Corp., 327 F. Supp. 2d 159, 163-64 (E.D.N.Y. 2004) ("A plaintiff . . . must prove an agreement by each defendant to commit at least two predicate acts," but "[t]he conspirator need not have agreed to commit the two or more predicate acts himself."). See also State Farm Mutual Auto. Ins. Co. v. CPT Med. Serv., P.C., 375 F. Supp.2d 141, 150-51 (E.D.N.Y. 2005) (holding that plaintiff's allegation that defendants provided "support" in furtherance of a pattern of racketeering activity was sufficient under 1962(d), even if plaintiff did not allege that defendants committed two predicate acts themselves).

d. Other circuits

Persuasive authority from other circuits supports construing the civil standard for a 1962(d) violation analogously to the standard set forth in Salinas. The Seventh Circuit has held that "an individual can be charged under § 1962(d) even if he personally does not agree to commit two predicate acts of racketeering." Slaney v. Int'l Amateur Athletic Fed'n, 244 F.3d 580, 600 (7th Cir. 2001) (citing Goren v. New Vision Int'l, Inc., 156 F.3d 721, 731 (7th Cir. 1998)). Explaining that the touchstone of 1962(d) liability is an agreement to violate the substantive RICO provisions, rather than an actual violation, the court confirmed that it is enough that "defendant . . . agreed that someone would commit at least two predicate acts to accomplish [the] goals [of the conspiracy]." Id. (emphasis supplied).

The holdings of several circuits on a related issue — whether the reach of the RICO conspiracy statute is limited to those who would have participated in the operation or management of an enterprise — reaffirm the application of Salinas to civil cases. In light of Salinas, the Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that a civil defendant may be held liable for conspiracy to violate section 1962(d) if he knowingly agrees to facilitate a scheme which includes the operation or management of a RICO enterprise. Smith, 247 F.3d at 538. The court overruled its prior holding in United States v. Antar, 53 F.3d 568 (3d Cir. 1995), which limited conspiracy liability to those who had conspired personally to operate or manage the corrupt enterprise. Smith at 534. See also United States v. Fernandez, 388 F.3d 1199 (9th Cir. 2004) (overruling Neibel v. Trans World Assurance Co., 108 F.3d 1123 (9th Cir. 1997), on the same grounds). Smith held that its prior holding in Antar was inconsistent with "the plain indication of the standard set forth in Salinas . . . that one who opts into or participates in a conspiracy is liable for the acts of his co-conspirators which violate section 1962(c) even if the defendant did not personally agree to do, or conspire with respect to, any particular element." Smith, 247 F.3d at 537 (emphasis in original). The court explicitly rejected defendants' contention that Beck limited Salinas to criminal cases. Id. at 538-39.

e. Conclusion on conspiracy requirements

Civil liability under RICO does not require that each conspirator agree to the personal commission of any element of the substantive offense — including the personal commission of two predicate acts.

B. Injury to Property

1. Law

A RICO plaintiff "can only recover to the extent that he has been injured in his business or property by the conduct constituting the violation." Sedima, 473 U.S. at 496.

But the statute requires no more than this. Where the plaintiff alleges each element of the violation, the compensable injury necessarily is the harm caused by predicate acts sufficiently related to constitute a pattern, for the essence of the violation is the commission of those acts in connection with the conduct of an enterprise. Those acts are, when committed in the circumstances delineated in § 1962(c), 'an activity which RICO was designed to deter.' Any recoverable damages occurring by reason of a violation of § 1962(c) will flow from the commission of the predicate acts.

Id. at 497.

Money is property under RICO. See Bankers Trust Co. v. Rhoades, 741 F.2d 511 (2d Cir. 1984), vacated and remanded on other grounds, 473 U.S. 922 (1985) ("Bankers has alleged that it has been deprived of various sums of money by the defendants' activities. There is no question that this constituted 'injur[y] in [its] business or property . . .'"). As the Supreme Court has held in the antitrust context, "[I]t taxes the ordinary meaning of common terms to argue . . . that a consumer's monetary injury arising directly out of a retail purchase is not comprehended by the natural and usual meaning of the phrase 'business or property.'" Reiter v. Sonotone Corp., 442 U.S. 330, 339, 99 S. Ct. 2326 (1979). The gloss courts have put on the phrase "business or property" in the antitrust context is more restrictive than that put on the phrase in the RICO context. Compare Sedima (in RICO suit, no requirement of a distinct "RICO injury") with Brunswick Corp. v. Pueblo Bowl-O-Mat, Inc., 429 U.S. 477, 489, 97 S. Ct. 690 (1977) (in antitrust suit, plaintiffs must plead and prove a distinct "antitrust injury"). A fortiori, if money is property under the antitrust laws, it is property under RICO.

2. Defendants' Motion for Summary Judgment on Injury

The challenge to plaintiffs' claim of injury overlaps with defendants' motion to dismiss on damages grounds, and is largely discussed at Part III.D, infra. Addressed here are two peripheral arguments of defendants that are rejected.

a. Proprietary injury

Defendants contend that plaintiffs have not suffered an injury to their business or property because "light" cigarettes have always cost the same as regular cigarettes, and many, if not all, of the class members would have continued to smoke in the absence of the alleged fraud. These contentions may persuade a jury, but cannot decide the motion for summary judgment.

Defendants rest their challenge on one in-circuit and three out-of-circuit cases. Each, they avow, stands for the proposition that a defrauded plaintiff cannot show injury under RICO if the object he or she received was worth what he or she paid for it. None bars plaintiffs' claims.

In Commercial Union Assurance Co. v. Milken, 17 F.3d 608 (2d Cir. 1994), the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held that plaintiff investors who initially suffered losses stemming from the criminal conduct of Michael Milken and others could not maintain an action under RICO after the full amount of their original investment had been returned to them. 17 F.3d at 611 (noting that appellants had received "114.6 percent of their initial capital investment and they still own their partnership interests"). Because plaintiffs had "received the return actually bargained for, they had suffered no compensable RICO injury." First Nationwide Bank v. Gelt Funding Corp., 27 F.3d 763, 769 (2d Cir. 1994) (describing the holding in Milken). Smoker plaintiffs' claim here, to the contrary, is that they did not receive what they bargained for — i.e., a safer cigarette. Milken is inapplicable.

In Heinold v. Perlstein, 651 F. Supp. 1410 (E.D. Pa. 1987), the court dismissed for lack of injury a suit seeking recovery for a lost "bargain opportunity" due to a retailer's representation that a ring was more valuable than it was. See 651 F. Supp. at 1411. Critically, the plaintiff conceded that the ring was, in fact, worth more than he had paid. Id. The plaintiff sought to recover his expectancy damages, which he defined as the difference between the value that the defendant represented the ring to have and the actual value of the ring. Id. The court rejected the plaintiff's position since the only property to which the plaintiff alleged an injury was his expectation interest. "Since plaintiff admits that he either broke even or came out ahead on the deal, albeit not as far ahead as he had hoped, I fail to see what property injury he sustained." Id. Heinold is easily distinguishable from the case at hand. Here, plaintiffs allege that they paid more than the fair market value of the cigarettes they purchased. It is not only the expectation of a benefit that is the source of plaintiffs' claim, but an actual loss of money: had the truth about "light" cigarettes been revealed earlier, they contend, the market value of these cigarettes would have been lower than the amount they paid. See Expert Reports of Dr. Jeffery Harris, Part VIII.F.1.h (under one of plaintiffs' damage models, "an economist assesses, on a per-cigarette basis, the difference between the price paid for the good as represented and the value of the good actually sold"); Dr. John Beyer, Part VIII.F.1.a (another model, using multiple regression, "identifies the extent to which prices of cigarettes were higher as a result of the alleged fraudulent behavior.").

Similarly inapt is Line v. Astro Manufacturing, 993 F. Supp. 1033 (E.D. Ky. 1998). In Line, a putative class of owners of manufactured homes sued the builders to recover for diminution of property value associated with homes that were subject to an increased risk of injury and death from fires. The court held that the plaintiffs had not alleged a RICO injury because the houses they had purchased were not worth less than what the plaintiffs had paid for them. See 993 F. Supp. at 1037 (a plaintiff "did not suffer any injury to business or property because he paid no more than fair market value for a manufactured home without a sprinkler system"). On the record in this suit, the jury may well decide that the cigarettes purchased by plaintiffs were worth less than, and had a fair market value below, what plaintiffs had actually paid.

A third case relied on by defendants, Frankford Trust Co. v. Advest, Inc., 943 F. Supp. 531 (E.D. Pa. 1996), is also wide of the mark. Frankford Trust found Heinhold's limitations — no recovery for harm to an expectation interest — inapplicable in a suit alleging mismanagement of funds and seeking profits that would have been earned had defendants invested wisely. See 943 F. Supp. at 535 ("Heinold is easily distinguishable from the case at hand."). The district court's holding in Frankford Trust that lost profits could be an injury under RICO does not preclude present plaintiffs' claim that they paid more than the fair market value for "light" cigarettes.

That "light" cigarettes did and do cost the same as regular cigarettes may not prevent a finding that plaintiffs paid more than fair market value. Plaintiffs contend that implicit in defendants' marketing was a trade-off between taste and safety. Smokers who chose "light" cigarettes, they claim, understood that flavor would be sacrificed for decreased health risks. See, e.g., Brown Williamson, "Low 'Tar' Satisfaction, Step 1, Identification of Perceived and Underperceived Consumer Needs," July 25, 1977, Bates No. 775036043-44 ("It must be assumed that Full Taste smokers come down to 'low tar' expecting less taste . . . they are willing to compromise taste expectations for health reassurance."); "Low Tar Brand Market Overview and Lights Review," Nov. 1994, Bates No. 403695152 ("Lights as a descriptor has distinct perception of relating to an expectation of low tar/nicotine delivery with an additional secondary expectation of reduced taste."). Under this view, a "light" cigarette that did not provide any decreased health risk would be worth less than a regular cigarette, even if both were priced the same, because of deficiencies in the latter's taste. Defendants counter that most "light" smokers claim to prefer the taste of "light" cigarettes — suggesting that health risks do not play a major role in the choice to start or continue smoking "lights." Under this view, a smoker who preferred the taste of "light" cigarettes would have no injury even if he or she received no less tar or nicotine than he or she would have from a regular cigarette. But see Expert Report of Marvin Goldberg, pp. 9-14, excerpted in Part VIII.F.1.g (arguing that defendants' marketing of "light" cigarettes shaped consumer perceptions of taste); Price, Appendix C at ¶ 41, infra (finding that some smokers' stated preference for the taste of "light" cigarettes "was actually an additional health reassurance reinforcement"). These intricate questions of implicit promises and subjective value are in the jury's bailiwick.

Damage models submitted to the jury will be vetted to conform to the evidence and any jury finding on injury. For example, if the jury were to find that "light" cigarettes were worth what plaintiffs paid, then only damages stemming from sales to those who would have quit, or would have smoked fewer cigarettes but for the fraud, will be permitted. See Part III.D.3.a (discussing basis for computation of out of pocket losses if benefit of the bargain recovery is disallowed).

b. Personal injury

Defendants urge that plaintiffs are improperly seeking compensation for increased risk of future personal injury under the cover of economic harm. Plaintiffs respond that the damages they seek are the most direct form of damage envisioned under RICO — money that was taken from them by fraud.

It is not clear that personal injury damages are not recoverable under RICO. See Nat'l Asbestos Workers Med. Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 74 F. Supp. 2d 221, 229 (E.D.N.Y. 1999) ("The most natural reading of the language in RICO supports the conclusion that pecuniary losses resulting from racketeering and causing personal injuries should be compensable under the statute."); Guerrero v. Gates, 110 F. Supp. 2d 1287, 1293 (C.D. Cal. 2000) (permitting recovery for personal injuries caused by police misconduct; collecting cases). See also Hargraves v. Capital City Mortg. Corp., 140 F. Supp. 2d 7, 26 (D.D.C. 2000) (citing National Asbestos Workers Medical Fund) (denying motion to dismiss claims seeking damages for emotional or physical injuries). But see Berg v. First State Ins. Co., 915 F.2d 460, 464 (9th Cir. 1990) (personal injuries not compensable under RICO); Rylewicz v. Beaton Services, Ltd., 888 F.2d 1175 (7th Cir. 1989) (same).

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has yet to rule on the matter. A prohibition on recovery for personal injuries would not be consonant with the statutory language ("The provisions of this title shall be liberally construed to effectuate its remedial purposes." Pub.L. 91-452, § 904(a), 84 Stat. 947.), or the Supreme Court's admonition that "RICO is to be read broadly." Sedima, 473 U.S. at 497. In any event, plaintiffs here do not seek damages for personal injuries, either directly or indirectly.

Plaintiffs' proposed jury instructions would make this distinction clear. "Damages that are recoverable include, for example, the payment of money, unjust profits, and overcharges. They do not include, for example, claims for personal injury or mental anguish." Pls.' Prop. Jury Inst. 6.

Relying on a footnote from In re Bridgestone/Firestone, Inc. Tires Product Liability Litigation, defendants also argue that permitting the instant suit to go forward without barring all future suits for personal injury would result in double recovery and double liability. See 288 F.3d 1012, 1017 n. 1 (7th Cir. 2002) (rejecting certification of nationwide class of consumers seeking damages for reduced value of defective tires). The learned footnote dealing with defects in widgets is of no help in the present case. Bridgestone turned on choice-of-law analysis, not double recovery. See id. at 1018 (concluding that the applicable state rule of lex loci delicti would require utilization of many different state substantive laws, rendering the case unmanageable on a national class action basis). Jurors may take a different view of choices by consumers of cigarettes looking for protection from cancer than they do of choices by purchasers of non-lethal widgets. Cf. Joe Nocera, "If It's Good for Philip Morris, Can It Also Be Good for Public Health?", N.Y. Times Magazine, June 18, 2006 (quoting Steve Parrish, Altria's senior vice president for corporate affairs: "We don't make widgets."). No language in RICO evidences concern with the possibility that its rule of recovery might lead to "excess precautions" — a phrase itself somewhat out of place in a suit alleging deliberate, long-term deception about serious public and private health concerns.

For the reasons described in Parts IV.B and IV.C, infra (rejecting claim splitting challenge), no double recovery would arise were a plaintiff successful in this suit also to sue for personal injuries stemming from consumption of "light" cigarettes — the claims are distinct and would remedy harms to different proprietary interests.

3. Conclusion on Injury

Plaintiffs' theory of injury is legally unobjectionable. It is supported by evidence sufficient to withstand summary judgment.

C. Causation and Reliance

1. Law

To recover under civil RICO, a plaintiff must establish an injury to his business or property "by reason of" the alleged racketeering activity. See Sedima, S.P.R.L. v. Imrex Co., 473 U.S. 479, 496, 105 S. Ct. 3275 (1985) ("[A] plaintiff . . . can only recover to the extent that he has been injured in his business or property by the conduct constituting the violation."); Bankers Trust Co. v. Rhoades, 741 F.2d 511, 516 (2d Cir. 1984), vacated and remanded on other grounds, 473 U.S. 922, 105 S. Ct. 3550 (1985), on remand, 859 F.2d 1096 (2d Cir. 1988) ("the requirement that the injury be 'by reason of' a violation of § 1962 means that there must be a causal connection between the prohibited conduct and the plaintiff's proprietary injury. Thus, it is insufficient for a plaintiff to prove simply a violation by the defendants and a proprietary injury; it must prove that the defendant's violation caused the injury."); Douglas E. Abrams, The Law of Civil RICO § 3.3.1 (1991) ("[S]ection 1964(c)'s 'by reason of' language requires proof that the violation caused the plaintiff's proprietary injury.").

The "by reason of" language requires both factual, "but for," causation and "proximate" causation. See Commercial Cleaning Servs., L.L.C. v. Colin Serv. Sys., Inc., 271 F.3d 374, 380 (2d Cir. 2001) ("RICO's use of the clause 'by reason of' has been held to limit standing to those plaintiffs who allege that the asserted RICO violation was the legal, or proximate, cause of their injury, as well as a logical, or 'but for,' cause.").

a. Factual causation

Factual causation is a requirement of every tort. See generally Dan B. Dobbs, The Law of Torts § 166 (cause in fact requirement). It is commonsensical: if a defendant's action cannot be linked to a harm suffered by plaintiff, he cannot be held liable for it.

b. Proximate causation

The term "proximate causation" is used "to label generically the judicial tools used to limit a person's responsibility for the consequences of that person's own acts." Holmes v. Security Investor Protection Corp., 503 U.S. 258, 268, 112 S. Ct. 1311 (1992). As it has with identical language in the Clayton Act, see Associated Gen. Contractors of California, Inc. v. California State Council of Carpenters, 459 U.S. 519, 535-6, 103 S. Ct. 897 (1983), the Supreme Court has read a proximate cause requirement into civil RICO. See Holmes, 503 U.S. at 268 ("We may fairly credit the 91st Congress, which enacted RICO, with knowing the interpretation federal courts had given the words earlier Congresses had used first in § 7 of the Sherman Act, and later in the Clayton Act's § 4. It used the same words, and we can only assume it intended them to have the same meaning that courts had already given them. Proximate cause is thus required.") (citations omitted). See also First Nationwide Bank v. Gelt Funding Corp., 27 F.3d 763, 769 (2d Cir. 1994) (RICO's "by reason of" clause "requires a showing not only that the defendant's alleged RICO violation was the 'but-for' or cause-in-fact of his injury, but also that the violation was the legal or proximate cause.").

Though proximate cause had taken many forms at common law, the issue in Holmes was "a demand for some direct relation between the injury asserted and the injurious conduct alleged." Id. Little weight was to be put on the Court's terminology. "[O]ur use of the term 'direct' should merely be understood as a reference to the proximate-cause enquiry that is informed by the concerns set out in the text. We do not necessarily use it in the same sense as courts before us have and intimate no opinion on results they reached." Id. at 274 n. 20.

The Court in Holmes did not attempt to set out a definitive test for proximate cause. "[T]he infinite variety of claims that may arise make it virtually impossible to announce a black-letter rule that will dictate the result in every case." Id. at 274 n. 20 (quoting Associated General Contractors, 459 U.S. at 536). See also Nat'l Asbestos Workers Med. Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 74 F. Supp. 2d 221, 223 (E.D.N.Y. 1999) ("[P]roximate causation is a normative, flexible, and highly fact specific doctrine which requires individualized inquiry in each case."); W. Page Keeton et al., Prosser and Keeton on the Law of Torts § 42 (5th ed. 1984) (proximate cause is "always to be determined on the facts of each case upon mixed considerations of logic, common sense, justice, policy and precedent"). See also Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp., ___ U.S. ___, 126 S. Ct. 1991 (2006) (applying Holmes as current law).

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has read Holmes to imply that the common law torts principles of direct injury, substantial causation, reasonable foreseeability, and the "zone of interests" are "distinct concepts, [each] of which must generally be established by a plaintiff." Laborers Local 17 Health and Benefit Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 191 F.3d 229, 235-36 (2d Cir. 1999). See also id. at 238-39 (holding plaintiff health fund's suit barred because its financial losses were wholly derivative of injuries to individual smokers; "the critical question posed . . . is whether the damages a plaintiff sustains are derivative of an injury to a third party.").

c. Reliance

i. Reliance is required

When, as here, mail fraud and wire fraud are the alleged predicate acts forming the racketeering activity, justified reliance on the fraud is necessary to satisfy RICO's causation requirements. See Metromedia Co. v. Fugazy, 983 F.2d 350, 368 (2d Cir. 1992) ("[T]o establish the required causal connection, the plaintiff [must] . . . demonstrate that the defendant's misrepresentations were relied on."). See also, e.g., Appletree Square I Ltd. v. W.R. Grace Co., 29 F.3d 1283, 1286 (8th Cir. 1994) ("In order to establish injury to business or property 'by reason of' a predicate act of mail or wire fraud, a plaintiff must establish detrimental reliance on the alleged fraudulent acts."); Grantham and Mann, Inc. v. Am. Safety Prods., 831 F.2d 596, 606 (6th Cir. 1987) (failure to establish detrimental reliance); In re Sumitomo Copper Litig., 995 F. Supp. 451, 458 (S.D.N.Y. 1998) ("When the predicate acts [of mail or wire] fraud are alleged, 'to establish the required causal connection, the plaintiff [is] required to demonstrate that the defendant's misrepresentations were relied on.'"). But see Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp., ___ U.S. ___, 126 S. Ct. 1991, 2008, 164 L.Ed.2d 720 (2006) (Thomas, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part) (reaching a question not reached by the majority, i.e., whether reliance is required in a civil RICO suit predicated on mail and wire fraud, and concluding that "[b]ecause reliance cannot be read into [the mail or wire fraud statutes], nor into RICO itself, it is not an element of a civil RICO claim").

ii. Role of reliance

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has not always stated explicitly, when discussing reliance, what purpose it serves. A fair reading of the cases demonstrates that whether reliance, in itself, satisfies both factual and proximate causation depends on whether the reliance is direct or third-party.

(a) Direct reliance

In cases deriving from predicate acts of mail or wire fraud, plaintiffs may establish reliance sufficient to satisfy RICO's "by reason of" language in one of two ways. First, a plaintiff may "claim that he was the direct target of the fraudulent scheme. In that case, to plead causation, [the] plaintiff would have to allege that he himself relied on the underlying misrepresentations to his detriment." Sterling Interiors Group, Inc. v. Haworth, Inc., No. 94-9216, 1996 WL 537482, at *4 (S.D.N.Y. Sept. 23, 1996). Proof of injury by the intended victim of a scheme is a prototypical example of proximate cause. See, e.g., Restatement (Second) of Torts § 525 (1977) ("One who fraudulently makes a misrepresentation of fact, opinion, intention or law for the purpose of inducing another to act or to refrain from action in reliance upon it, is subject to liability to the other in deceit for pecuniary loss caused to him by his justifiable reliance upon the misrepresentation."). Direct reliance satisfies proximate causation.

(b) Third-party reliance

As a second possibility, a plaintiff may allege that his injuries were caused by a third party's reliance on fraudulent scheme. See, e.g., County of Suffolk v. Long Island Lighting Co., 907 F.2d 1295, 1300, 1311 (2d Cir. 1990) (permitting plaintiff county and utility ratepayers to sue on theory that defendant utility had testified falsely before the state Public Service Commission, which granted the utility the right to increase rates in reliance on the false testimony). Proof of third-party reliance will not always satisfy RICO's requirement of proximate causation. See 2 Civil RICO Litigation § 8.04[B][1][a] ("[I]f the defendant's misrepresentations cause a third party to take actions causing plaintiff's injury, the factual causation link is satisfied. Whether such injury should nevertheless be deemed too remote to permit recovery under [civil RICO] is a matter of proximate causation analysis, not causation-in-fact."). Cf. Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp., ___ U.S. ___, 126 S. Ct. 1991 (2006) (proximate cause not met where government agency, not plaintiff, relied on defendant's alleged mail and wire fraud).

d. Transaction causation and loss causation

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has, in the context of RICO suits alleging fraud in commercial finance transactions, said that plaintiffs must show "transaction causation" and "loss transaction." See, e.g., Moore v. PaineWebber, 189 F.3d 156 (2d Cir. 1999) (plaintiffs alleged that financial service company misrepresented life insurance policies as Individual Retirement Accounts, causing them to purchase the policies instead of investing their money in more profitable ways); First Nationwide Bank v. Gelt Funding Corp., 27 F.3d 763 (2d Cir. 1994) (defendant mortgage broker misrepresented to plaintiff commercial lender the operating income of properties in order to secure loans on those properties, and then defaulted, causing substantial losses); Citibank, N.A. v. K-H Corp., 968 F.2d 1489 (2d Cir. 1992) (defendants made false representations to lender in order to secure an extension of credit). Defendants contend that the same "transaction causation" and "loss causation" principles apply to the present consumer fraud case, and that plaintiffs cannot meet these requirements.

The doctrines are inapplicable. Transaction causation would require plaintiffs to demonstrate that, "but for the defendant[s'] wrongful acts, the plaintiffs would not have entered into the transactions that resulted in their losses." Moore, 189 F.3d at 172. Loss causation would require that plaintiffs show "that the defendants' misstatements or omissions were the reason the transactions turned out to be losing ones." Id. Transaction causation is similar to the factual causation inquiry under reliance, discussed above. Loss causation, in the consumer fraud context, would be nonsensical. If, as defendants aver, plaintiffs here were required to show that the misstatements or omissions "actually caused their economic loss," see Tr. of Sept. 13, 2006 Hr'g, at 123:20, they would have to demonstrate that defendants' alleged misrepresentations about "light" cigarettes made those cigarettes worth less than plaintiffs paid — i.e., made those purchases "losing ones." But the allegation is not that defendants' fraud itself decreased the value of "light" cigarettes. It is that defendants manufactured an inferior product (because it tasted worse than regular cigarettes and was no safer) and disguised its worth with misleading statements about its reduction of health risks. As with every consumer fraud, it is not the misrepresentation that makes the product worth less than defendant claims. It is the facts behind the lies.

Application of the "transaction causation" — "loss causation" duo would bar all consumer fraud claims under RICO. The law does not so radically reduce consumer protections because of its rules for an entirely different kind of case, one dealing with commercial finance.

2. Defendants' Motion for Summary Judgment on Causation

Defendants move for summary judgment on causation grounds. They claim that 1) plaintiffs have made an insufficient showing of reliance and 2) the indirect purchaser rule bars their claims.

a. Reliance

The challenge on grounds of insufficient showing of reliance is twofold. It is a challenge, first, to plaintiffs' experts' reports and, second, to the use of aggregate proof on what defendants claim is a set of "individualized" questions. Because the court finds the reports and testimony of plaintiffs' pertinent experts admissible, see Part VIII, infra, and the use of statistical proof appropriate, see Parts VII.D.1.a.ii, VII.D.2.b.i, and IX.A, infra, defendants' remonstration is unfounded.

i. Plaintiffs' claims of reliance

Plaintiffs allege reliance on the "lights" descriptor appearing on each pack of "light" cigarettes, as well as the sophisticated marketing campaigns of defendants. See SAC ¶ 72 ("In furtherance of their fraud and deception, Defendants added the labels "Light" and/or "Lights" to their regular cigarette brands . . . to induce consumer[s] into believing that they would receive lower amounts of tar and nicotine from these cigarettes than from their regular cigarettes. . . ."); ¶ 115 ("Each advertisement, marketing activity, and public statement regarding light cigarettes was intended to convey a 'health reassurance' to existing and potential smokers."); ¶ 189 ("As a direct and proximate result of Defendants' [conspiracy to misrepresent the health risks of "light" cigarettes], . . . Plaintiffs and the Class were induced and/or deceived into purchasing light cigarettes, and were thereby injured in their property."). They also allege reliance on the statements of public health community and government officials, who themselves were misled by defendants and, as a result, did not warn smokers of the risks of "light" cigarettes as soon as they would have had they not been deceived. See SAC ¶¶ 149-184 (describing defendants' efforts to suppress research and other documentation that might reveal to the public health authorities and others the risks of "light" cigarettes).

ii. Reliance showing required in this case

Though reliance is a requirement for establishing causation where predicate acts based in fraud are alleged, the nature of the reliance is not a constant. Where the fraudulent scheme is limited in scope and specifically targeted at only one or a few individuals, organizations, or entities, the establishment of causation may require reliance on identifiable misrepresentations. See, e.g., County of Suffolk, 907 F.2d at 1311 (" In the context of this case, which involves RICO mail fraud claims . . . it is necessary for Suffolk to demonstrate at trial that LILCO's misrepresentations to the PSC were relied upon by the PSC.") (emphasis supplied). See also Metromedia, 983 F.2d at 357 (misrepresentations sent by mail directly to targeted victim). Where, however, the fraudulent scheme is targeted broadly at a large proportion of the American public the requisite showing of reliance is less demanding. Such sophisticated, broad-based fraudulent schemes by their very nature are likely to be designed to distort the entire body of public knowledge rather than to individually mislead millions of people. From the perspective of the fraudulent actors, clear efficiencies are gained by co-opting the media and other outlets of information as unwitting tools for such a pervasive scheme.

If plaintiffs' allegations are borne out, it was crucial to the success of defendants' scheme — particularly the public's willingness to accept the misrepresentations as truths — that the health claims about "light" cigarettes appear to come not only from the defendants themselves, but also to appear as facts, or at least open questions, permeating the entire body of public knowledge. Cf., e.g., Simon II, Appendix D, at Part III.B.4, infra (it was tobacco industry policy that "reports were to be withheld from the United States Surgeon General" if they implicated cigarettes in causing disease). To require reliance on specific misrepresentations where the concealed and obscured use of indirect channels of communication was integral to the success of the scheme would produce the perverse result of having the most massive and sinister fraudulent schemes be the ones that escape civil RICO liability.

Where such a broad-based fraudulent scheme is alleged, a plaintiff in order to establish reliance for injury causation need only establish (1) that the RICO defendants intentionally engaged in a scheme to distort the body of public knowledge, (2) that the defendants were successful in doing so (i.e., were, a substantial factor causing the distortion), (3) that there was detrimental reliance on this distorted knowledge by an intended and foreseeable class of victims, (4) that such reliance was reasonable in the totality of the circumstances, and (5) that the plaintiffs were proximately injured by this reliance. Falise v. American Tobacco Co., 94 F. Supp. 2d 316, 334 (E.D.N.Y. 2000).

iii. Plaintiffs have demonstrated reliance

Plaintiffs have met the five Falise requirements:

(1) Documents submitted by plaintiffs in this case, experience with like tobacco litigation, the recent opinion after bench trial in United States v. Philip Morris (Appendix A, infra), the findings of the jury in Blue Cross (Appendix B, infra), the trial in Illinois state court (Appendix C, infra), and the expert reports of Joseph Stiglitz, Robert Pollay, Richard Proctor, and others provide ample evidence of a scheme by defendants to mislead each potential smoker of "light" cigarettes, and the public generally, about the health risks of "light" cigarettes.

(2) While defendants raise FTC and public health community "approval" as defenses, see Parts VI.A, VI.C, infra, their advertisements and marketing efforts were and are the primary source of information for smokers about defendants' products. See United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A at ¶¶ 2400-2625, infra (detailing marketing efforts). The expert reports of Katherine Kinsella, Marvin Goldberg, Robert Pollay, and others provide evidence on which a rational jury could conclude that defendants' representations were a substantial factor causing plaintiffs' misapprehensions.

(3) Plaintiffs' experts Robert Proctor, K. Michael Cummings, Joel Cohen, and Michael Dennis, among others, provide evidence that "lights" smokers, the class of alleged victims, relied on defendants' misrepresentations, and that they did not receive what was represented — less tar and nicotine or, more generally, a less dangerous cigarette.

Defendants' attack on plaintiffs' failure to produce a single, determinate "reliance number" — the percentage of plaintiffs who relied on defendants', as opposed to any other party's, representations — misconceives the allegations in the case. The survey of plaintiffs' expert John Hauser attempts to fix — within acceptable limits — the percentage of "light" smokers for whom health was a significant contributing factor to the decision to smoke "light" cigarettes. See Part VIII.F.1.i, infra (finding the survey and Dr. Hauser's opinions based upon it admissible). He concludes, based on his survey, that 90.1 percent of "light" smokers chose their cigarettes based on the desire to reduce health risks.

"Light" cigarettes are an invention of defendants. The true "reliance number" might be expected to closely approximate Dr. Hauser's number, unless there were other sources of information about "light" cigarettes. There is substantial evidence that, beginning in 1971, defendants marketed their "light" brands aggressively — with advertising expenditures out of proportion to their market share — in order to capitalize on anticipated smoker concerns about health. See Expert Report of Marvin Goldberg, Part VIII.F.1.g, infra. Defendants' representations were thus the primary, (and for many years, the only) source of information about "light" cigarettes. Accord United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A at p. 1264, infra.

Plaintiffs further claim, with evidence sufficient to withstand summary judgment, that defendants deceived and misled the FTC and public health authorities — the only other possible sources of information about "light" cigarettes. Reliance on those entities' statements, under plaintiffs' view, would in effect be reliance on defendants' statements. This distortion of the collective body of knowledge would have been a critical component of the alleged fraud's success. If this aspect of plaintiffs' claims is proven, Dr. Hauser's number should be very close to the true "reliance number." A jury would be justified in basing a determination of causation on it.

(4) Reliance by many, if not all, of the plaintiffs was reasonable in the totality of the circumstances, particularly given the lack of sophistication on such health matters of many, if not most, smokers, combined with the allegedly voluminous distortions and omissions by defendants concerning the dangers of "light" cigarettes.

Plaintiffs' experts Jeffery Harris, John Beyer, and John Hauser, among others, present admissible reports that provide a basis for a jury determination that plaintiffs suffered compensable economic harms as a result of defendants' alleged fraud. See Part VIII.F.1, infra.

(5) Compared to previous RICO cases handled by this and other courts, the proximate cause inquiry here is not complex. It does not involve a medical provider suing in subrogation to recover costs incurred as a consequence of medical injuries suffered by smokers because of defendants' fraudulent conduct, cf. Blue Cross/Blue Shield of New Jersey, 344 F.3d at 218 (overturning jury verdict because plaintiff insurer failed to identify individualized subrogor claims); a trust fund suing to recover monies expended on medical services for smokers misled by tobacco companies about the addictiveness and health risks of cigarettes, cf. Laborers Local 17 Health and Benefit Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 191 F.3d 229, 239 (2d Cir. 1999) (dismissing complaint because plaintiff trust fund's injuries were "entirely derivative" of union smokers'); or workers or entrepreneurs harmed by a business that hired a large number of undocumented immigrants and paid them poorly — depressing local wages or permitting the business to underbid competitors on public contracts. See, e.g., Williams v. Mohawk Indus., Inc., 411 F.3d 1252, 1261 (11th Cir. 2005) (wages); Trollinger v. Tyson Foods, Inc., 370 F.3d 602, 618-9 (6th Cir. 2004) (same); Mendoza v. Zirkle Fruit Co., 301 F.3d 1163, 1170-1 (9th Cir. 2002) (same); Commercial Cleaning Servs., L.L.C. v. Colin Serv. Sys., Inc., 271 F.3d 374, 381-5 (2d Cir. 2001) (bidding).

Plaintiffs here allege a simple and short chain of causation: defendants represented that "light" cigarettes provided health benefits that they knew these cigarettes did not provide; plaintiffs believed the misrepresentation and so continued to buy "light" cigarettes in larger numbers than they would have absent the fraud; this kept demand for "light" cigarettes at a much higher level than it otherwise would have been; elevated demand allowed defendants to keep prices higher than they otherwise would have; and plaintiffs paid more for "light" cigarettes than they otherwise would have.

Defendants' reliance upon Anza v. Ideal Steel Supply Corp. is ill-placed. The plaintiff in Anza alleged harm to his business by reason of a competitor's fraudulent submission of false tax claims to state authorities. 126 S.Ct. at 1995. By failing to pay the sums due the state, he alleged, his competitor was able to lower his prices and so attract more customers. Id. at 1997. Two discontinuities plagued the suit. First was the disjuncture between the party allegedly defrauded and the party allegedly harmed. "The cause of [plaintiff's] harms . . . is a set of actions (offering lower prices) entirely distinct from the alleged RICO violation (defrauding the State)." Id. "The direct victim of this conduct was the State of New York, not Ideal." Id. Second was the "attenuated connection" between the injury and the fraud. Plaintiff's "lost sales could have resulted from factors other than [the competitor's] alleged acts of fraud. Businesses lose and gain customers for many reasons, and it would require a complex assessment to establish what portion of [plaintiff's] lost sales were the product of National's decreased prices." Id.

Plaintiffs here, by contrast, were both the direct target of the fraud and the party injured. Documentary evidence discussed in some detail at Part VIII, infra, strongly suggests that the fraudulent "health reassurance" campaign was the central and predominating reason for plaintiffs' choice. Relatively straightforward surveys of consumers are possible — and conducted often by these very defendants — to determine what motivated the choice of "light" cigarettes that would be infeasible in the complex, multifactor business and investment environment. Cf. Holmes at 272-273 ("If the nonpurchasing customers were allowed to sue, the district court would first need to determine the extent to which their inability to collect from the broker-dealers was the result of the alleged conspiracy to manipulate, as opposed to, say, the broker-dealers' poor business practices or their failures to anticipate developments in the financial markets.").

As explained by Justice Breyer in his concurrence in part and dissent in part, it was the competitive and antitrust implications of Anza's complaint that mandated a finding of no proximate cause:

In my view, the "antitrust" nature of the treble-damage provision's source, taken together with both RICO's basic objectives and important administrative concerns, implies that a cause is "indirect," i.e., it is not a "proximate cause," if the causal chain from forbidden act to the injury caused a competitor proceeds through a legitimate business's ordinary competitive activity. To use a physical metaphor, ordinary competitive actions undertaken by the defendant competitor cut the direct causal link between the plaintiff competitor's injuries and the forbidden acts.

The basic objective of antitrust law is to encourage the competitive process.

Anza, 126 S. Ct. at 2010. Proximate cause boundaries on but-for cause are based on policy decisions designed to prevent undue inhibition of activities society encourages — in Anza, competition. No public policy supports drawing the proximate cause limitation to preclude these plaintiffs' suit. They were the persons targeted; they expended their own funds; and they were allegedly damaged by getting less than they paid for, satisfying direct, proximate cause requirements.

Anza does not appear to shrink the class of plaintiffs who may sue under the principles set forth in Holmes, described supra. See 126 S. Ct. at 1995 ("Our analysis begins — and, as will become evident, largely ends — with Holmes.").

b. Indirect purchaser rule

Defendants do not appear to seriously contend that they had no direct duty to plaintiff smokers, or that they did not have a duty to smokers not to make fraudulent representations regarding the safety of their cigarettes. Nevertheless, they continue to rely upon the non-applicable indirect purchaser rule.

The indirect purchaser rule, or Illinois Brick doctrine, precludes an indirect purchaser from suing an antitrust violator for overcharges passed on to the indirect purchaser through intermediaries. Illinois Brick Co. v. Illinois, 431 U.S. 720, 729, 97 S. Ct. 2061 (1977). The doctrine equally applies to RICO actions for treble damages. See, e.g., Sperber v. Boesky, 849 F.2d 60, 65 (2d Cir. 1988); Carter v. Berger, 777 F.2d 1173 (7th Cir. 1985).

Defendants contend that the Illinois Brick doctrine bars plaintiffs' claims because plaintiffs seek to recover a portion of the price they allegedly overpaid, and yet they have not bought "light" cigarettes directly from the defendants. Rather, plaintiffs bought from retailers, who bought from wholesalers, who bought from defendants. The gist of defendants' argument is that any injury plaintiffs have suffered is derivative of injury inflicted, in the first instance, upon the wholesalers. In the context of this litigation, the suggestion that the cause of action belongs to the intermediate chain of purchasers in bulk — the wholesaler, the large supermarket corporations, or even the corner grocer — rather than the to the smoker-purchaser to whom defendants' advertising is pitched verges on the bizarre. "'If the law supposes that,' said Mr. Bumble, 'the law is a ass, a idiot.'" Charles Dickens, Oliver Twist, in Familiar Quotations 669b (John Bartlett, ed., 14th ed. 1968). But it is not such a bumbler.

Plaintiffs do not contest that they are indirect purchasers within this crabbed definition preferred by defendants. Their submission is that the Illinois Brick doctrine does not bar their claims because they are the direct victims and targets of defendants' fraud. First, they point out that the case law does not mandate application of the Illinois Brick doctrine in the context of a mail and wire fraud case where the purchasers are the direct victims or intended targets of fraud. Second, they contend that the policy rationale underlying the Illinois Brick doctrine — to streamline enforcement by granting full recovery only to the direct victim — does not support divesting direct victims and targets of fraud from a cause of action. Plaintiffs argue that because defendants' fraud was designed to inflate the ultimate purchasers' demand for "light" cigarettes, they are the ones with the "requisite proximity to injury."

The notion of separating the concept of direct victim with that of intended target is not without some basis. Cf. Associated Gen. Contractors, Inc. v. California State Council of Carpenters, 459 U.S. 519, 537, 540, 103 S. Ct. 897 (1983) (treating the specific intent of antitrust conspirators to target plaintiffs separately from the directness or indirectness of plaintiffs' injury, which relates to the chain of causation between the injury and the unlawful conduct). Although courts have used the term "direct" with some latitude, under Second Circuit precedent, an injury is direct where plaintiff's harm arises from defendant's misrepresentations to the plaintiff and not from an injury to a third party. See Laborers Local 17 Health and Benefit Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 191 F.3d 229, 237-39 (2d Cir. 1999) (collecting cases).

Analysis requires considering plaintiffs' contention that they are both the direct victims and the intended targets of defendants' fraud. Illinois Brick doctrine does not bar plaintiffs' claims under either theory. The cases relied on by defendants do not involve indirect purchasers who are direct victims or intended targets of fraud. Barring plaintiffs' claims would negate the long-standing principle underlying the Illinois Brick doctrine that the victim who is in the best position to uncover violations gets the full recovery. See Carter, 777 F.2d at 1176.

i. Illinois Brick

The Illinois Brick doctrine originated in the context of antitrust law. In Hanover Shoe, Inc. v. United Shoe Machinery Corp., 392 U.S. 481, 88 S. Ct. 2224 (1968), the Supreme Court rejected an antitrust defendant's claim that the plaintiff buyer did not suffer a cognizable injury because it passed on the illegal overcharges to his customers. In that case, a shoe manufacturer sued a manufacturer and distributor of shoe machinery on the theory that the defendant monopolized the shoe industry through its practice of leasing shoe equipment, instead of selling it. Id. at 483-84. Plaintiff sought to recover the difference between the price of rentals and the amount he would have paid, had defendant been willing to sell the shoe machinery. Id. The Supreme Court held that so long as the seller continued to charge the illegal price, the buyer was not barred from recovery even if he had recouped the overcharge by charging higher prices to his customers. Id. at 489.

The Court's first concern was that allowing defendant to assert that plaintiff passed on the overcharges would make it virtually impossible to ascertain how much of the overcharge was passed every time the goods changed hands. Id. at 492-93. Second, allowing the pass-on defense would reduce the effectiveness of treble-damages actions because the buyers of single pairs of shoes would have too tiny a stake to sue, and antitrust violators would retain the fruits of their illegality. Id. at 494.

Illinois Brick involved a situation obverse to Hanover Shoe. The state of Illinois and local government agencies sued producers of concrete blocks for conspiring to fix prices and alleged that intermediary contractors passed on the overcharge to the government. Illinois Brick Co., 431 U.S. at 735. The government agencies did not buy the bricks directly from the producers; rather, the producers sold to masonry contractors, who submitted bids to general contractors, who, in turn, submitted bids to the government agencies. Id. at 726. The Supreme Court held that the counties were barred from suing, because giving indirect purchasers standing to sue was inconsistent with the rule of Hanover Shoe. Id. at 728-29. Precluding defendant from asserting that a direct purchaser passed on an alleged overcharge to indirect purchasers, while allowing an indirect purchaser to recover from the defendant would result in multiple liability for the defendant. Id. at 730. Rather than allowing every potentially affected party to sue only for the portion it absorbed, concentrating full recovery in the hands of the direct purchaser would better ensure that violators would not retain the fruits of their illegality. Id. at 735.

The Second Circuit has applied the Illinois Brick doctrine in the context of proximate causation in a RICO case. See Sperber, 849 F.2d at 65 (holding that investors' injuries were not proximately caused by defendant's acts of insider trading and analogizing the investors to consumers who merely pay higher prices to an intimidated storekeeper). Other circuits have applied the twin holdings of Hanover Shoe and Illinois Brick to bar both plaintiffs and defendants from asserting the "pass-on" argument in the context of RICO actions for treble damages. Compare McCarthy v. Recordex Serv., Inc., 80 F.3d 842 (3d Cir. 1996) (barring suit by indirect purchasers of copies of medical records), and Carter, 777 F.2d at 1173 (barring suit by taxpayers for injuries resulting from defendant's illegal underpayment of taxes), with County of Oakland v. City of Detroit, 866 F.2d 839 (6th Cir. 1989) (plaintiff counties were not barred from suit notwithstanding that they may have passed overcharges to customers), and Terre Du Lac Ass'n, Inc. v. Terre Du Lac, Inc., 772 F.2d 467 (8th Cir. 1985) (property owners association was not barred from suit notwithstanding that it passed costs to its members).

ii. Inapplicability of Illinois Brick Rule

The underlying rationales of Illinois Brick doctrine do not support barring plaintiffs' claims. The Supreme Court's concern in Illinois Brick that defendants would be exposed to multiple liability if indirect purchasers are allowed to sue is remote or non-existent in the case before the court. Under defendants' interpretation of the Illinois Brick doctrine, only the wholesalers would have standing to sue, since they are the ones who bought directly from the defendants. It is questionable, however, whether the wholesalers would have standing to recover, if, as plaintiffs allege, defendants' fraudulent scheme was designed to induce smokers, and not the wholesalers, into buying more "light" cigarettes. Cf. Abrahams v. Young Rubicam Inc., 79 F.3d 234, 238 (2d Cir. 1996) (foreign tourist official who alleged injury to his reputation and business from defendants' scheme to bribe him, which was unbeknownst to him, failed to establish a RICO claim because he was not the target of the enterprise and his injuries did not flow from the harms the predicate acts were intended to cause); Byrne v. Nezhat, M.D., 261 F.3d 1075, 1111-12 (11th Cir. 2001) ("when the alleged predicate act is mail fraud, the plaintiff must have been a target of the scheme to defraud and must have relied to his detriment on misrepresentations made in furtherance of that scheme") (citations and alteration omitted). But cf. Terre Du Lac Ass'n, 772 F.2d at 472 (RICO standing exists even where plaintiff does not allege that it was a target of the racketeering activity). To the extent that the wholesalers do not have standing to sue, defendants do not face a risk of multiple liability if plaintiffs are allowed to sue.

Second, barring plaintiffs' claims would vitiate, rather than enhance, the policy of deterrence underlying the Illinois Brick doctrine. As explained by the Seventh Circuit in Carter, granting full recovery to a single party rather than spreading recovery amongst all potentially injured parties gives incentive to sue to the person best positioned to uncover violations. See Carter, 777 F.2d at 1176. Insofar as defendants' fraud was designed to increase the purchasers' demand for "light" cigarettes, it would be pointless to concentrate full recovery in the hands of the wholesalers. There is no reason to surmise that the wholesalers would be in a better position to uncover fraud committed upon the consumers. If plaintiffs' contentions are correct, the wholesalers stood to gain from defendants' fraud, since it increased total cigarette sales for both producers and wholesalers.

Where the wholesalers have not suffered any injury that might induce them to sue, allowing plaintiffs' claims is the only way to ensure that the defendants will not retain the fruits of illegal practices. Although individual plaintiffs' stakes may be small, Hanover Shoe, 392 U.S. at 494, aggregating their damages in a class action provides adequate incentive to sue.

Defendants rely on the Second Circuit decision in Sperber, 849 F.2d at 60, a civil RICO action by investors in six publicly traded companies against a securities trader who had pled guilty to insider trading. In that case, the plaintiffs alleged that defendant's acts of insider trading violated the wire and mail fraud statutes, and that plaintiffs were injured when the price of the six stocks fell following defendant's plea. Id. at 61-62. The court interpreted the allegation to mean that the price of the six stocks was artificially inflated because defendant's success in other stock drove all stocks up by encouraging more people to enter into the market, or that defendant's success attracted a "cult of watchers who bought the stocks he bought," thereby raising the prices only of those stocks. Id. at 62, 64. Significantly, plaintiffs did not contend that they were injured from defendant's illegal trading in the six relevant stocks. Id. at 64. In addition, plaintiffs did not know that defendant was involved in the stocks that they purchased. Id. Citing Illinois Brick, the court analogized the investors' situation to consumers, who unaware of any racketeering, pay higher prices to an intimidated storekeeper: "those consumers are further removed from the racketeer than the storekeeper is and probably cannot recover under RICO, just as they cannot recover under the antitrust laws." Id. at 65. The court held that the investors' injuries were too remote from defendant's unlawful acts to satisfy proximate cause where the investors "were neither the target of the racketeering enterprise nor the competitors nor the customers of the racketeer," and where the defendant "did not cheat or deceive plaintiffs in any way with regard to the particular stocks in question since they did not know he had purchased them and he did not trade in them illegally." Id.

Defendants here contend that the facts of Sperber closely parallel the plaintiff smokers' allegations, since the plaintiffs in Sperber had similarly alleged that defendants' fraud created the demand for stocks. Defendants' analogy is misplaced. The Second Circuit specifically based its holding in Sperber on the fact that plaintiffs were not targets of the racketeering enterprise, and that defendant did not deceive plaintiffs with regard to the relevant stocks. In the case before the court, plaintiffs allege that they were the intended targets of defendants' fraud, and that the defendant manufacturers deceived them into buying "light" cigarettes.

Also distinguishable are the Third Circuit decision in McCarthy, 80 F.3d at 842, which barred suit by hospital patients for inflated photocopying charges, and the Seventh Circuit decision in Carter, 777 F.2d 1173, which barred suit by taxpayers for injuries derived from defendant's tax fraud upon the county. Plaintiffs in McCarthy were patients who asserted both antitrust and RICO violations, alleging that the defendant hospitals and copying services conspired to charge excessive prices for photocopies of their medical records. McCarthy, 80 F.3d at 845. In practice, the plaintiffs' attorneys requested the photocopies of their clients' medical records in the course of their representation, after obtaining consent from their clients. Id. Defendants billed the attorneys for the requested photocopies. Id. The plaintiffs had contingent fee arrangements with the attorneys, and all but one of the plaintiffs had no obligation under their retainer agreements to reimburse the attorneys for photocopying services, unless the attorney obtained monetary recovery in favor of the respective client. Id. at 845-46. In these circumstances, the Third Circuit held that the indirect purchaser rule barred plaintiffs' claim, since the attorneys, and not the clients, were direct purchasers of the photocopies. Id. at 852. The contingent basis on which attorneys passed on costs to the clients, if any, would have made it too difficult to ascertain what portions of the costs were borne by the clients. Id. at 851.

McCarthy is not on point because the plaintiffs were not the direct victims or targets of defendant's unlawful conduct. The patients would have suffered no injury unless their attorneys first obtained monetary recovery in their favor. No allegation was made that the defendant hospitals and copy services induced patients through fraud to request more photocopies of medical records, or that they otherwise targeted the patients. Here, by contrast, plaintiffs have alleged that defendants induced them to buy more "light" cigarettes by falsely representing to them that they would experience reduced health risks from the lower amounts of tar and nicotine in "light" cigarettes.

The Carter decision is distinguishable for the same reason. In that case, taxpayers brought a RICO action against a defendant who had previously pled guilty to paying money to county officials to obtain lower tax assessments for his clients. Carter, 777 F.2d at 1174. The taxpayers alleged that they had been injured because they had to pay more taxes to make up for the illegal lower assessments. Id. The Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit held that the taxpayers did not have standing to sue because their injury was derivative of injury to the county. Id. While recognizing that a "fraud committed against one person often injures others," the court stated that "concentrating the entire right to recover in the hands of the directly injured party promotes deterrence," because that person has the best opportunity to uncover a violation. Id. at 1174, 1176. While in Carter the taxpayers sought to recover for fraud committed against county, plaintiffs in the present case seek to recover for fraud against themselves. They had the best opportunity and motive to uncover the alleged RICO violations and the right to recover properly belongs to them.

Defendants have also relied on three cases which barred RICO defendants from asserting that plaintiffs had no standing to sue because they recouped their losses by passing on the costs to their customers. In the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit case County of Oakland, 866 F.2d at 839, plaintiff counties sued the city and the mayor of Detroit under antitrust and RICO theories. Id. at 841. The counties' allegation was that the city's charges for sewerage services were inflated because of a price-fixing conspiracy concerning the city's contracts for sludge disposal. Id. The district court had held that the counties had suffered no injury in fact because they passed on the costs to municipalities, which in turn passed on the costs to the ultimate consumers. Id. The Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit reversed, holding that the counties had standing to bring suit, even if they had passed the overcharge down the chain of distribution to the ultimate consumers. Id. at 851.

Defendants place great emphasis on the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit's dicta that allowing the defendants to assert the pass-on argument would have transformed the case into a massive class action by the end users and would have presented "enormous evidentiary complexities and uncertainties" in determining each class member's damages. Id. at 850 (citations omitted). Notwithstanding these rationales, County of Oakland did not involve a situation where defendant specifically targeted the end users or manipulated demand for sewerage services. The court's holding cannot be extended to a situation where defendants' fraud directly manipulated the end users' demand for "light" cigarettes. The public interest in deterring RICO violators by granting remedies to those in the best position to uncover violations outweighs the evidentiary problems of apportioning damages among the class members.

Defendants cite the decision in Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey, Inc. v. Philip Morris, Inc., 138 F. Supp. 2d 357 (E.D.N.Y. 2001). In Blue Cross, plaintiff insurer asserted a subrogation claim against cigarette manufacturers on the theory that defendants' deceptions about the adverse health effects of tobacco caused plaintiff's subscribers to incur medical costs, which plaintiff paid. Id. at 360, 363. The court rejected defendants' claim that the plaintiff insurance company did not suffer any injury because it passed on the increased health care costs to its subscribers. Id. at 360, 363-64. In rejecting the pass-on defense, the court emphasized that plaintiff's "subrogated action [was] not predicated on the idea that costs may have been passed on to its insured in higher premiums," but was an "independent action in which equitable principles are applied to shift [the] loss to the one who caused [it]." Id. at 363.

Defendants in the present case erroneously claim that Blue Cross held that only the direct purchaser can be properly regarded as the damaged party. The plaintiff insurance company in Blue Cross was not a purchaser of tobacco, let alone a direct purchaser. Furthermore, plaintiff in Blue Cross did not assert a direct RICO claim against defendants in its own right, but rather asserted the rights of its subrogors. Blue Cross, therefore, merely stands for the proposition that insurance subscribers who were injured by paying higher premiums because of tobacco manufacturers' deceptions had the right to recover.

Defendants here directed their marketing and advertising directly at plaintiff smokers. The smokers' injury is not derivative of injury to the wholesalers. Illinois Brick does not bar the suit.

3. Conclusion on Causation

Plaintiffs' theory of causation is sound. Their supporting evidence is sufficient to withstand a motion for summary judgment.

D. Computation of Total Damages

This section covers computation of total damages. Distribution of damages through the "fluid recovery" system is covered in Part IX.B, infra. Allocation among defendants is dealt with in Part IX.C, infra.

Damages recoverable under RICO are equivalent to the injury suffered, trebled. See 18 U.S.C. § 1964(c). Defendants contend that, even if plaintiffs could prove that defendants intentionally misrepresented the health risks of "light" cigarettes, plaintiffs cannot demonstrate that class members suffered compensable damages. Because plaintiffs have offered two methods of calculating class damages that comport with defendants' rights and Daubert requirements, the contention is rejected.

Plaintiffs' models for determining loss to the misled purchasers of "lights" come well within the legal boundaries of damages for deceit. As McCormick stated it in his old, but still classic treatise:

As to the measure of damages in deceit, two rules have been adopted in different jurisdictions: (1) The federal rule, followed in a few states, allows the person defrauded to recover the difference between the value of what the plaintiff has parted with and the value of what he has received in the transaction; (2) the majority rule, following the analogy of the measure in actions in contract for breach of warranty, allows recovery of the difference between the actual value of what the plaintiff received and the value which it would have had if it had been as represented. The first may be termed the "out-of-pocket loss" rule, and the second, the "loss of bargain" rule.

Charles T. McCormick, Handbook on the Law of Damages 448 (1935). See Part III.D.2.a, infra.

A certain degree of flexibility in computing damages is allowed, whatever the purist's view of the applicable of damage law. Even, for example, in condemnations cases, where there is a fairly clear rule that market value is determined by what willing sellers and buyers would pay for comparable properties, the special value to the owner — here, the cigarette purchaser — will be considered. See, e.g., Lewis Orgel, Valuation Under the Law of Eminent Domain § 43 (2d ed. 1953) (value to owner may influence estimate of "fair market value").

1. Plaintiffs' Models

Plaintiffs have offered, as possible measures of the injury they have suffered, models based on profit disgorgement, price impact, loss of value, and loss of market. Defendants challenge the admissibility of the profits disgorgement and price impact models on Daubert grounds. In an earlier memorandum and order, this court granted defendants' motion to exclude the profits disgorgement model entirely and the price impact model in its initial form. See 2005 WL 2401647 (E.D.N.Y. Sept. 29, 2005). Defendants make no motion to exclude the loss of value and loss of market models, but contend that neither demonstrates harms compensable under RICO.

a. "Loss of market" model

The "loss of market" model is based primarily on the expert report of Dr. Jeffery Harris. See Part VIII.F.1.h, infra. It asks whether, were it not for defendants' alleged fraudulent conduct, the market for "light" cigarettes would have existed. Based on responses by consumers in sample surveys and the significant costs that defendants incurred setting up, marketing, and manufacturing "light" cigarettes, Dr. Harris concludes that smokers who were aware of the true nature of "light" cigarettes would not have been willing to purchase them at a price high enough to earn defendants a profit — and so the market would not have existed at all. Damages under the loss of market model would be equal to the full purchase price of all "light" cigarettes sold during the class period in the covered areas. This is a restitutionary measure of damages. It is inconsistent with the facts that show some smokers would have continued to smoke "light" cigarettes because of their addiction or for other reasons. Nevertheless, the effect of the fraud on the "lights" market price can be considered in determining loss of value ("b," infra) and price impact ("c," infra).

Recovery under civil RICO is limited "to the extent that [a plaintiff] has been injured in his business or property." Sedima, S.P.R.L., v. Imrex Co., Inc., 473 U.S. 479, 496, 105 S. Ct. 3275 (1985). This court has previously ruled that disgorgement of profits would represent an inappropriate measure of damages in this RICO suit. See 2005 WL 2303821 (E.D.N.Y. Sept. 22, 2005).

b. "Loss of value" model

The "loss of value" model relies on sample surveys that asked smokers to compare their willingness to pay for "light" cigarettes that reduced health risks and "light" cigarettes that were no less harmful than regular cigarettes. Based on these responses, plaintiffs' expert Dr. Harris estimated a loss in value of 77.7 percent if the "light" cigarettes sold by defendants were as harmful as regular cigarettes, and 92.3 percent if they were potentially more harmful. The Price court used this model to award damages. See Appendix C at ¶ 90, infra. As defendants aver and plaintiffs concede, this is a "benefit of the bargain" measure of damages.

c. "Price impact" model

The "price impact" model uses a multiple regression analysis to determine the impact of the defendants' alleged fraud on the price of "light" cigarettes. It measures the impact of defendants' alleged fraud on the market price for "light" cigarettes. This model identifies a number of variables that might reasonably affect demand for defendants' products, including rates of cigarette consumption, income levels of smokers, population, taxes, advertising expenditures, production costs, and plaintiffs' knowledge of health risks. The model yields overcharge estimates for 5-year periods between 1972 and 1998.

Though this court excluded the "price impact" model in its initial form, it granted leave to adjust the model to meet the reliability requirements of Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence and Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 113 S. Ct. 2786 (1993). The revised model is admissible. See Part VIII.F.1.a, infra. 2. Law

The laws governing RICO, securities fraud, and antitrust are all potentially relevant to the determination of the appropriate measure of damages in this suit.

a. Practice under common law

The common law of fraud and deceit may provide guidance in determining damages. Theories of fraud damages, like other tort theories, seek to restore the plaintiff to the position he or she occupied before the tort was committed. There are two common measures of damages for fraud: "benefit of the bargain" and "out of pocket loss." Both measures purport to make the plaintiff whole, but differ in their approach to remedying the fraud. The benefit of the bargain model attempts to place the plaintiff in the position he or she would have been in had the representations been true. The out of pocket measure attempts to indemnify him or her; it restores the plaintiff to the position he or she would have been in had there been no representation and transaction at all. It is a remedy "by the balance sheet." See James M. Fischer, Understanding Remedies 503 (1999).

A majority of state courts applies the "benefit of the bargain" measure in fraud actions. Under this measure, a plaintiff is entitled to the difference between the value of the object or service received and the value of the object or service as represented. See Victor F. Schwartz et al., Prosser, Wade and Scwhartz's Torts 1063 (10th ed. 2000) ("The 'benefit-of-the-bargain' rule has been adopted by about two-thirds of the American courts that have considered the question."); 2 Dan B. Dobbs, Law of Remedies 551 (2d ed. 1993) ("The loss of bargain measure in some form has been used in most states, at least when the fraud is intentional. . . ."); Robert L. Dunn, Recovery of Damages for Fraud 28 (3d ed. 2004) ("[B]enefit-of-the-bargain is the 'majority rule.'"); McCormick, Law of Damages 448, supra. A minority of state courts applies the "out of pocket" measure. Under this measure, plaintiffs are entitled to the difference between the value of the object or service received and the amount paid. See, e.g., McCormick, supra.

"Of the two measures the 'out-of-pocket' rule has been termed more consistent with the logic and purpose of the tort form of action (i.e., compensation for loss sustained rather than satisfaction of contractual expectations) while the 'benefit-of-the-bargain' rule has been observed to be a more effective deterrent (in that it contemplates an award even when the property received has a value equal to what was given for it)." Stout v. Tourney, 22 Cal. 3d 718, 725 (1978). The basic argument against the benefit of the bargain rule is theoretical inconsistency: tort law remedies should be retrospective, because they seek to undo harm, not make good on a promise.

The out-of-pocket rule has been criticized by a majority of jurisdictions for providing insufficient deterrence of fraudulent activities. Courts following the benefit of the bargain rule have urged its social utility, arguing that under the out of pocket rule, the wrongdoer is insured against loss from his wrongful act, since at most he will be required to sell the property in question at its actual value. See, e.g., United States v. Ben Grunstein Sons Co., 137 F. Supp. 197 (N.J. 1955); Fleet Nat'l Bank v. Anchor Media Television, Inc., 45 F.3d 546 (1st Cir. 1995). Under the benefit of the bargain rule, by contrast, a merchant who commits fraud may be held to the value of what a good or service would have been worth if it had been as represented. See, e.g., Whilhoite v. Franklin, 570 So. 2d 1236 (Ala.App. 1990) (determining fraud damages based on what a misrepresented automobile would have been worth as represented, not as it actually was). Courts have not shied away from the inherent windfall that the benefit of the bargain rule gives successful plaintiffs. See, e.g., Carrel v. Lux, 101 Ariz. 430, 441 (1966) ("[I]f plaintiffs can satisfy a jury that they were defrauded by defendants, and that as a result of such fraud there was a difference of $25,000 between the value of the property they purchased had it been as represented and as it actually was, plaintiffs would be entitled to recover that sum as damages. The fact that plaintiffs may have negotiated a very advantageous purchase price . . . should have no bearing on their right to recover damages for fraud.").

The out of pocket and benefit of the bargain rules often produce the same result. Dunn, supra, 63. The rules diverge only when the value of the property as represented is greater than the price paid. "The courts then face a policy determination: Is the defrauded purchaser to be given the benefit of the 'bargain' the purchaser thought he or she had?" Id. Some states have adopted a more flexible rule, which permits the court to use either the out of pocket or the benefit of the bargain rule, based upon which will more appropriately compensate the defrauded party. See, e.g., Aerotech Res., Inc. v. Dodson Aviation, Inc., 191 F. Supp. 2d 1209 (D. Kan. 2002) (applying Florida law); Gardner v. Rosecliff Realty Co., 41 N.J. Super. 1 (1956).

In the instant suit, only benefit of the bargain damages would provide sufficient deterrence for the type of widespread, long-term fraud alleged — the aim of RICO's civil damages provision. See Rotella v. Wood, 528 U.S. 549, 557, 120 S. Ct. 1075 (2000) ("The object of civil RICO is thus not merely to compensate victims but to turn them into prosecutors, 'private attorneys general,' dedicated to eliminating racketeering activity."). Plaintiffs are not limited to their out of pocket losses.

b. Practice under securities law

The law of recovery in securities fraud actions is the largest body of federal fraud damages law. It often involves mail and wire fraud similar to that alleged in the present case. Recourse to it is appropriate to discover guiding principles of federal remedies for fraud.

The Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 contain several explicit rights of action for parties injured by fraudulent statements made in connection with the sale or purchase of securities. See Securities Act of 1933 §§ 11(e), 12(a), 15 U.S.C. §§ 77k(e), 77l(a); Securities Exchange Act of 1934 §§ 9(e), 18(a), 15 U.S.C. §§ 78i(e), 78r(a).

i. 1933 Act

Damages under the 1933 Act are limited by statutory language to the difference between the purchase price of the security and the value of the security at one of several later dates (time of sale before suit, time of suit, or time of sale after suit but before judgment), or the cost of purchase, plus interest and less any income earned. See 1933 Act, supra. These measures are "out-of-pocket" measures; they award the plaintiff the difference between the sum he expended and the value he received. RICO does not contain a similar limitation.

ii. 1934 Act

The 1934 Act's explicit statement of the relevant rights of action are, like RICO, phrased generically. See 1934 Act §§ 9(e) (permitting plaintiff "to recover the damages sustained as a result of any . . . act or transaction" manipulating the price of securities), 18(a) (permitting plaintiff to recover "damages caused by . . . reliance" on misleading statements). They are of greater use in considering the appropriate measure of damages in a RICO case. The Supreme Court has recognized implied private rights of action for fraud under sections 10 and 14 of the 1934 Act and SEC Rule 10b-5. See 1934 Act §§ 14(a), 14(e); 17 C.F.R. §§ 240.10b-5, 240.14a-9.

(a) Explicit rights of action

Case law on the topic is scant but suggests that either measure of damages may be appropriate pursuant to the explicit right of action under section 9 of the 1934 Act. See Sarlie v. E. L. Bruce Co., 265 F. Supp. 371, 375-76 (S.D.N.Y. 1967) (describing "the difference between the prices at which [plaintiff] purchased the stock and the prices at which [plaintiff] would have purchased the stock in an unmanipulated market" as the "customary measure" under section 9 but applying out-of-pocket loss as an "alternative measure" on the facts).

This court has been unable to find a reported decision that throws light on the appropriate measure of damages for the explicit right of action under section 18(a) of the 1934 Act.

(b) Implied rights of action

Section 28(a) of the 1934 Act governs damages under rights of action implied from the 1934 Act. It prohibits recovery under its provisions "in excess of . . . actual damages on account of the act complained of." 1934 Act § 28(a). The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has ruled that the "actual damages" limit of section 28(a) applies to the implied rights of action under the 1934 Act. See Green v. Wolf Corp., 406 F.2d 291, 302 (2d Cir. 1968). This has not prevented it from applying a benefit-of-the-bargain measure of damages in appropriate situations. See Wilson v. Great Am. Indus., Inc., 979 F.2d 924, 932-33 (2d Cir. 1992) ("The benefit of the bargain rule . . . is the appropriate measure of damages in this matter."); Osofsky v. Zipf, 645 F.2d 107, 114 ("We believe that the benefit-of-the-bargain rule should be applied under the 1934 Act to the limited situation involved in this case. . . ."). See also Wilson, 979 F.2d at 933 (describing this measure as necessary "to place plaintiffs in substantially the same position they would have occupied absent the fraud").

The Supreme Court has noted that either measure of damages may be appropriate depending on the facts of a particular case. See Mills v. Electric Auto-Lite Co., 396 U.S. 375, 388-89, 90 S. Ct. 616 (1970) (discussing situations in proxy fraud cases that might justify one measure or the other). The Court has also contemplated recoveries under the 1934 Act greater than either the benefit-of-the-bargain or out-of-pocket measures would afford. See Randall v. Loftsgaarden, 478 U.S. 647, 661-2, 106 S. Ct. 3143, 3152 (1986) ("the mere fact that the receipt of tax benefits, plus a full recovery under a rescissory measure of damages, may place a § 10(b) plaintiff in a better position than he would have been in absent the fraud, does not establish that the flexible limits of § 28(a) have been exceeded."); Affiliated Ute Citizens of Utah v. U.S., 406 U.S. 128, 155, 92 S. Ct. 1456, 1473 (1972) ("the correct measure of damages under [§] 28 of the Act is the difference between the fair value of all that the . . . seller received and the fair value of what he would have received had there been no fraudulent conduct, except for the situation where the defendant received more than the seller's actual loss. In the latter case damages are the amount of the defendant's profit.") (citations omitted). In short, though recovery under the implied rights of action under the 1934 Act is limited to "actual damages," any one of several measures may be appropriate under the specific circumstances of the suit at issue. "These questions, of course, are for decision in the first instance by the District Court . . . [. O]ur singling out of some of the possibilities is not intended to exclude others." Mills, 396 U.S. at 389.

c. Practice under antitrust law

Antitrust law may be relevant to a consideration of the appropriate measure of damages in a RICO suit because the private suit provision of RICO was based on the Clayton Act. Compare 15 U.S.C. § 15(a) ("any person who shall be injured in his business or property by reason of anything forbidden in the antitrust laws may sue therefor . . . and shall recover threefold the damages by him sustained, and the cost of suit, including a reasonable attorney's fee.") with 18 U.S.C. § 1964(c) ("[a]ny person injured in his business or property by reason of a violation of section 1962 of [chapter 18] may sue therefor . . . and shall recover threefold the damages he sustains and the cost of the suit, including a reasonable attorney's fee. . . ."). See Agency Holding Corp. v. Malley-Duff Assoc., Inc., 483 U.S. 143, 151 (1987) ("The clearest current in the legislative history of RICO is the reliance on the Clayton Act model." (citation omitted)). Though the antitrust laws address different underlying causes of action than RICO, they share common problems of estimation.

Antitrust remedies require that courts estimate the amount of damages attributable to a defendant's unlawful actions. This can never be done with absolute precision.

Our willingness to accept a degree of uncertainty in these cases rests in part on the difficulty of ascertaining business damages as compared, for example, to damages resulting from a personal injury or from condemnation of a parcel of land. The vagaries of the marketplace usually deny us sure knowledge of what plaintiff's situation would have been in the absence of the defendant's antitrust violation.

J. Truett Payne Co. v. Chrysler Motors Corp., 451 U.S. 557, 566, 101 S.Ct. 1923, 1929, 68 L.Ed.2d 442 (1981).

The impossibility of determining precisely how much damage is attributable to an antitrust defendant's actions has led the Supreme Court to sanction the use of estimates. "[W]hile the damages may not be determined by mere speculation or guess, it will be enough if the evidence show the extent of the damages as a matter of just and reasonable inference, although the result be only approximate." Story Parchment Co. v. Paterson Parchment Paper Co., 282 U.S. 555, 563, 51 S. Ct. 248, 250 (1931). See generally C. Douglas Floyd E. Thomas Sullivan, Private Antitrust Actions 995 ff. (1996).

These estimates are often based on hypothetical, or counterfactual, situations — e.g., what would the market have been like but for the antitrust violation? Courts have permitted recovery for increased costs, lost profits, and a reduction in the value of a business as a consequence of antitrust violations using a variety of measures. The increased cost suits stemming from price fixing are somewhat similar to the allegations in the instant suit. The measures of damages used there are pertinent to the determination here.

In a price fixing case, the plaintiffs allege that they have incurred excess costs because of collusion by defendants. If injury is proven, damages will be awarded in the amount the plaintiffs paid over a hypothetical "reasonable rate." Thomsen v. Cayser, 243 U.S. 66, 88, 37 S. Ct. 353, 360 (1917). Courts have approved "pre-post," "yardstick," economic model, and cost measurement approaches, based on the facts of the particular case. See generally Floyd Sullivan at 999-1000.

The "pre-post" (or "before and after") method of calculating damages has been utilized in cases of horizontal price fixing. This test compares pricing levels prior to the impact of the violation with pricing levels subsequent to it. See, e.g., Gaines v. Carrollton Tobacco Board of Trade, Inc., 496 F.2d 284, 286 (6th Cir. 1974) ("detailed comparisons of the sales of the [plaintiff] in the two years operated [during period of alleged antitrust violation] to subsequent years operated without them . . . serve to demonstrate damages and may be used to compute same"). The pricing data is used to determine the respective pricing variance between the prices that prevailed in the affected market and the prices that would have prevailed in a market unrestrained by the defendant. See, e.g., American Crystal Sugar Co. v. Mandeville Island Farms, 195 F.2d 622 (9th Cir.), cert. denied, 343 U.S. 957 (1952) (in case alleging price fixing conspiracy among agricultural product buyers, appropriate measure of damages was difference between the price at which plaintiffs sold their products and the higher price they would have received had the conspiracy not existed).

The yardstick test has been utilized in horizontal, as well as vertical, price fixing cases. This test compares pricing information from the affected market with pricing data from markets that have not been affected by defendant's antitrust violations. These figures are then used to calculate a price differential from which a reasonable market rate can be determined. See, e.g., Phillips v. Crown Central Petroleum Corp., 426 F. Supp. 1156 (D. Md. 1977) (four independent gasoline service station dealers sued their supplier alleging both horizontal and vertical price fixing; in proving their damages, plaintiffs compared the wholesale prices charged by the defendant with the wholesale prices prevailing in areas unaffected by the defendant's antitrust violations). This test is generally used by a plaintiff who is driven out of business by an antitrust violation before the plaintiff is able to compile a sufficient earnings record allowing the estimation of lost profits.

The economic model approach has also been utilized in price fixing cases. Under this approach expert witnesses introduce economic models that correlate numerous factors and their corresponding effect on pricing levels. Courts have allowed plaintiffs to use this method in cases where the expert testimony has a rational basis in the record. See, e.g., Lehrman v Gulf Oil Corp, 500 F.2d 659, 668 (5th. Cir. 1974) (holding that experts' damage estimates may be indirect and may include estimates based on assumptions, so long as the assumptions rest on adequate data).

A fourth method of calculating damages in antitrust price fixing cases has also been utilized, the cost measurement approach. While the "pre-post," yardstick, and economic model approaches emphasis price comparisons, the cost measurement approach uses the defendant's profit and cost data as evidence of the plaintiff's damages. Under the cost measurement approach the plaintiff must prove damages by establishing a competitive profit level and the amount by which the defendant's profits exceeded this level during the period of alleged price fixing. The plaintiff can prove this by using one of two profit theories: (1) a historical analysis of the defendant's profits over time or (2) a comparison of the defendants' profit rates with those of "competitive industries." See Floyd Sullivan at 1002.

This diversity of approaches demonstrates courts' willingness to confront difficulties of proof with practicable solutions. Without deciding the precise measure of damages computation that will be presented to the jury, it is apparent that there is sufficient basis in the evidence to support a variety of appropriate definitions.

3. Application of Law to Facts

Recovery in civil RICO fraud cases is highly fact-specific. "Because of the wide range of predicate acts and possible enterprises and plaintiffs, it is not feasible to set forth a general list of items normally recoverable under civil RICO." 4 L. Sand et al., Modern Federal Jury Instructions 84-70 (2003).

a. Appropriate measure

Facing the question of appropriate damages in state "lights" fraud litigation, courts have applied the benefit of the bargain rule. See Craft, 2003 WL 23139381, at *9 (denying defendants' motion for summary judgment on damages; the "[p]laintiff has a very plausible chance of proving ascertainable losses and damage"); Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 399 ("'[B]enefit of the bargain' damages, if proved with reasonable certainty, would be appropriate in this case."). As the court pointed out in Craft, defendants' theoretical objections to plaintiffs' "loss of value" model of damages are contravened by common sense.

[L]ogic and reason suggest that a true low-tar, low-nicotine cigarette very probably would have had an economic worth and value greater (perhaps even considerably greater) than a comparable non-low tar, low nicotine cigarette, due to the health reassurance factor — due to the added value that would be inherent in a less toxic, less harmful, "safer" cigarette. Although the added monetary value of this health factor may be somewhat difficult to measure, and the methods or models for making such calculations might be somewhat complicated or require expert testimony, the Court nonetheless believes that the likelihood of such added value if the cigarettes had truly been as represented is still there. If so, this is precisely the type of lost "gain" or benefit that the benefit-of-the-bargain rule was designed to allow recovery for.

2003 WL 23139381 at *9 (footnote omitted).

The benefit of the bargain model prevents a windfall to the wrongdoer who has mulcted a consumer, but not in an amount greater than the actual value of the product. "To allow for the plaintiff . . . only the difference between the real value of the property and the price which he was induced to pay for it would be to make any advantage lawfully secured to the innocent purchaser inure to the benefit of the wrongdoer." Craft, 2003 WL 23139381, at *7 (quoting Kendrick v. Ryus, 123 S.W. 937, 940 (Mo. 1909). Under the out of pocket measure, a merchant who deliberately deceived a customer by representing that a widget that in fact was worth only $2 had special characteristics, making it appear to be worth $3, and selling him that widget for $2, would be immune from liability. Defendants' out of pocket theory overlooks the importance of the deceit to the smokers' decision to enter into the transaction at all.

But for the fact that the purchaser thought he was getting a bargain, he might not have made the contract at all. If by fraud and deceit he is induced to believe that he is contracting for a benefit or a bargain, and not merely swapping dollars, why should not the benefits of the bargain be an element in the measure of damages in an action for fraud and deceit? Such benefit would be a matter fully contemplated by both parties. By the purchaser, because, as a rule, trades are not made for the purpose of merely exchanging dollars. By the seller, because he would not falsely represent the character of the property save and except to induce the purchaser to believe that he was procuring a benefit of bargain.

Kendrick v. Ryus, 123 S.W. at 940 (quoted in Craft at *7).

Inducement to contract is particularly important in this case, where plaintiffs have argued with force that defendants deceived smokers about the health risks of "light" cigarettes in order to prevent those active smokers who were worried about their health from quitting and to encourage health-conscious prospective smokers to start. "Light" cigarettes now make up almost fifty percent of the overall market for cigarettes. On the record before the court, a jury could reasonably find that plaintiffs were fraudulently induced to purchase "light" cigarettes (i.e., enter the contract) by defendants' misrepresentations about the health risks of those cigarettes. In the instant case, the benefit of the bargain models proposed by plaintiffs are valid measures of damages suffered.

Contrary to defendants' contentions, the holding in Milken, 17 F.3d 608 (discussed in Part III.B.2.a, supra) does not require a different result. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's statement that "damages as compensation under RICO . . . must, under the familiar rule of law, place [plaintiffs] in the same position they would have been in but for the illegal conduct[,]" Id. at 612, is a restatement of the goal of all tort damages. As explained in Part III.D.2.a, supra, both the benefit of the bargain and out of pocket models "seek to restore the plaintiff to the position he or she occupied before the tort was committed. . . . Both measures purport to make the plaintiff whole, but differ in their approach to remedying the fraud. The benefit of the bargain model attempts to place the plaintiff in the position he or she would have been in had the representations been true. The out of pocket measure attempts to indemnify him or her; it restores the plaintiff to the position he or she would have been in had there been no representation and transaction at all." In either case, the plaintiff is restored to the position he would have been in "but for" the illegal conduct.

Because application of the "transaction causation"-"loss causation" rule is rejected in this case, see Part III.C.1.d, supra, the suggestion in the cases using that rule that plaintiffs would be limited to out of pocket damages is of limited utility.

If the benefit of the bargain measures were held to be improper, the jury could be charged to consider only out of pocket losses, which would be based upon the number of packs of cigarettes purchased by smokers who would otherwise have quit and the number of excess cigarettes smoked by those who compensated on a per-day, rather than exclusively per-cigarette, basis. There is evidence to support a calculation of damages due to these factors. See, e.g., Part VIII.H, infra (discussing evidence of effect of "lights" marketing on smoking quit and initiation rates); Neal Benowitz, "Compensatory Smoking of Low-Yield Cigarettes," in Monograph 13 (in portion of chapter not appearing in Appendix E, surveying studies showing cigarette consumption increases with switch to lower yield cigarettes). If necessary, additional time would be permitted to develop out of pocket losses for trial.

b. Degree of precision required

Defendants attack plaintiffs' theory of damages as speculative. Benefit of the bargain damages are always somewhat imprecise. As noted in the antitrust context, they require a court or jury to determine what would have happened were it not for the defendant's misconduct. See Kendrick at 940, quoted in Craft at *8 ("[D]amages under th[e benefit of the bargain] rule, in terms of determining the 'as represented' value, are deemed somewhat speculative. Although that has historically been the chief criticism of those who dislike the rule, the difficulty of proof is no greater than in warranty cases where the same rule applies. . . .").

That defendants have allegedly fraudulently marketed a good without readily determinable value "as represented" does not justify dismissal. "The fact that the property sold was of such a character as to make it difficult to ascertain with exactness what its value would have been if it had [been as represented] affords no reason for exempting the defendant from any part of the direct consequences of his fraud." Kendrick at 940.

Where injury is established, damages need not be demonstrated with precision. Under the long-standing — and typical — New York rule, when the existence of damage has been established, and the only uncertainty is as to its amount, the plaintiff will not be denied a recovery of substantial damages. See Lee v. Joseph E. Seagram Sons, Inc., 552 F.2d 447, 456 (2d Cir. 1977); W. L. Hailey Co. v. County of Niagara, 388 F.2d 746, 753 (2d Cir. 1967) (collecting New York cases). See also Blue Cross, Appendix B at Part XII, infra (rejecting a similar challenge to sufficiency of plaintiffs' proof of damages). The risk of uncertainty as to the amount of damage is upon the wrongdoer, Perma Research Development v. Singer, 542 F.2d 111, 116 (2d Cir. 1976), and the test for admissibility of evidence concerning prospective damages is whether the evidence has any tendency to show their probable amount. Duane Jones Co. v. Burke, 306 N.Y. 172, 192, 117 N.E.2d 237 (1954).

An estimate of damages, even when well-founded, "necessarily requires some improvisation, and the party who has caused the loss may not insist on theoretical perfection." Entis v. Atlantic Wire Cable Corp., 335 F.2d 759, 763 (2d Cir. 1964). "The law will make the best appraisal that it can, summoning to its service whatever aids it can command." Sinclair Ref. Co. v. Jenkins Co., 289 U.S. 689, 697, 53 S. Ct. 736 (1933). See Part IX.A (discussing pragmatic need for use of aggregate proof).

In a class action demanding statistical analysis of damages, as in any individual suit, the models presented by plaintiffs can be adopted in part, or not at all, by the jury without giving rise to a valid objection on grounds of undue speculation. See, e.g., Tyler v. Bethlehem Steel Corp., 958 F.2d 1176 (2d Cir. 1992) (rejecting defendant's claim that damages award in employment discrimination case was "unduly speculative"; jury's award of $667,000 in future lost earnings fell well within plaintiff's expert's estimate of $915,105); New York v. Hendrickson Bros., Inc., 840 F.2d 1065, 1078 (2d Cir. 1988) ("[W]e cannot accept appellants' contention that the jury's decision to award the State various fractions of the amounts demanded was not an equitable and reasonable one, for to do so in the circumstances here would permit defendants to profit by their wrongdoing at the expense of the person injured."). See also Hendrickson Bros., 840 F.2d at 1077 ("Although the jury is not allowed to base its damages assessment on speculation or guesswork, it is entitled to make a just and reasonable estimate of the damage based on relevant data, and render its verdict accordingly.").

In the antitrust context, the Supreme Court has approved imprecision as practicable and consonant with due process:

[Damage] issues in these cases are rarely susceptible of the kind of concrete, detailed proof of injury which is available in other contexts. The Court has repeatedly held that in the absence of more precise proof, the factfinder may "conclude as a matter of just and reasonable inference from the proof of defendants' wrongful acts and their tendency to injure plaintiffs' business, and from the evidence of the decline in prices, profits and values, not shown to be attributable to other causes, that defendants' wrongful acts had caused damage to the plaintiffs."

J. Truett Payne, 451 U.S. at 565-66 (quoting Bigelow v. RKO Pictures, Inc., 327 U.S. 251, 264, 66 S. Ct. 574 (1946)). "[Any] other rule would enable the wrongdoer to profit by his wrongdoing at the expense of his victim. It would be an inducement to make wrongdoing so effective and complete in every case as to preclude any recovery, by rendering the measure of damages uncertain." Bigelow at 264-265.

The Court's justification for preventing uncertainty from redounding to the benefit of an antitrust tortfeasor — "the vagaries of the marketplace" that prevent "sure knowledge of what plaintiff's situation would have been in the absence of the" wrong, see J. Truett Payne, 451 U.S. at 565-566 — applies equally to RICO.

This latitude is only afforded if a plaintiff can trace his or her injury to the defendant's unlawful acts. It "is thus circumscribed by the need for proof of causation." United States Football League v. National Football League, 842 F.2d 1335, 1378 (2d Cir. 1988). It does not threaten to punish an innocent defendant.

Both the loss of value and price impact theories of damages are sound and sufficiently supported by the evidence to go to a jury. They may form the basis for a determination of damages, if plaintiffs demonstrate causation. 4. Equitable Relief

Plaintiffs primarily seek money damages. They also seek equitable relief in the form of (1) disgorgement of profits and (2) an order eliminating the use of "lights" as a descriptor on packaging and in advertisements by defendants for some of their cigarette brands. Defendants move for partial summary judgment on these equitable claims.

Disgorgement of profits would duplicate damages — particularly as trebled — based upon claimed overpayments by plaintiffs. They would be inequitable.

Any order limiting the future use of the descriptor "lights" is best left to state cases, a case brought by the federal government (see United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A, infra), government regulation by the Federal Trade Commission, or legislation. The government now substantially controls warnings on cigarette packaging and advertising. See Federal Cigarette Labeling and Advertising Act, Pub.L. No. 89-92, 79 Stat. 282 (1965), as amended by Pub.L. No. 98-474, 98 Stat. 2204 (1984) and by Pub.L. No. 99-92, § 11, 99 Stat. 393, 402-04 (1985), current version at 15 U.S.C. § 1331 (1982 Supp. IV 1986). C.f, e.g., World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, art. 11(1)(a) (states party to the Convention agree to take measures to ensure that "tobacco product packaging and labeling do not promote a tobacco product by any means that are false, misleading, deceptive or likely to create an erroneous impression about its characteristics, health effects, hazards or emissions, including any term, descriptor, trademark, figurative or any other sign that directly or indirectly creates the false impression that a particular tobacco product is less harmful than other tobacco products. These may include terms such as 'low tar', 'light', 'ultra-light', or 'mild.'"). The United States, along with 167 other nations, has signed the Convention, though it has yet to ratify it.

The motion for partial summary judgment dismissing plaintiffs' claims for equitable relief is granted.

5. Conclusion on Computation of Total Damages

Plaintiffs' theories of damages are sound. A rational jury could make a reasonably precise determination on the basis of either the price impact or loss of value model. Both may be submitted to the jury. Additional models may be created, and additional data generated, between now and trial.

E. Statute of Limitations

Defendants move to dismiss on the ground that, as a matter of law, plaintiffs' claims are barred by RICO's four-year statute of limitations. Plaintiffs oppose.

1. Law

The statute of limitations for a civil RICO claim is four years. Agency Holding Corp. v. Malley-Duff Assoc., Inc., 483 U.S. 143, 153, 107 S. Ct. 2759 (1987). Congress initially failed to include an express statute of limitations period for civil RICO actions when it passed the legislation. See id. at 146. The Supreme Court remedied this omission in Malley-Duff when it "borrowed" the statute of limitations from what it considered the most analogous federal legislation, the Clayton Antitrust Act, 15 U.S.C. § 15(a), after which RICO was modeled. Id. at 153.

The statute of limitations is an affirmative defense; defendants must plead and prove it. Fed.R.Civ.P. 8(c). They must demonstrate, as a matter of law, when the class members either 1) knew or 2) should have known of their injuries. In re Merrill Lynch Ltd. Partnerships Litigation, 154 F.3d 56, 59 (2d Cir. 1998).

a. Accrual

Three distinct approaches to the accrual of the statute of limitations emerged in federal Courts of Appeals after the decision in Malley-Duff: the common law discovery-of-injury rule, the last-predicate-act rule, and the discovery-of-injury-and-pattern rule. See Rotella v. Wood, 528 U.S. 549, 553, 120 S. Ct. 1075 (2000).

In Klehr v. A.O. Smith Corp., 521 U.S. 179 (1997), the Supreme Court rejected the last-predicate-act rule, which postponed the running of the statute of limitations until the commission of the last predicate act that formed the pattern of racketeering upon which the plaintiff's claim was based, regardless of when the plaintiff had knowledge of its injury resulting from the defendant's racketeering. See also Keystone Ins. Co. v. Houghton, 863 F.2d 1125, 1130 (3d Cir. 1988), overruled by Klehr (stating the "last predicate act" rule). The Court gave two reasons why this rule was not appropriate: it was not consistent with the accrual rule from the Clayton Act, and it excessively lengthened the statute of limitations period. Klehr, 521 U.S. at 187-188. The Court stated that such a rule "would permit plaintiffs who know of the defendant's pattern of activity simply to wait, 'sleeping on their rights,' . . . as the pattern continues and treble damages accumulate, perhaps bringing suit only long after the 'memories of witnesses have faded or evidence is lost.'" Id. In Rotella, 528 U.S. 549, the Supreme Court rejected the discovery-of-injury-and-pattern rule, which postponed the running of the statute of limitations until the plaintiff discovered, or reasonably should have discovered, both (a) the existence and source of his or her injury, and (b) the fact that the injury was part of a pattern. See also Bivens Gardens Office Bldg., Inc. v. Barnett Bank of Florida, Inc., 906 F.2d 1546, 1554-55 (11th Cir. 1990).

The accrual rule now sanctioned by the Supreme Court for civil RICO claims is the discovery-of-injury rule, which starts the four year statute of limitations at the point when a victim discovers or reasonably should have discovered his or her injury. See Rotella, 528 U.S. at 558.

b. Equitable tolling

The Court in Rotella noted that, "[i]n rejecting [the discovery-of-injury-and-pattern] rule, we do not unsettle the understanding that federal statutes of limitations are generally subject to equitable principles of tolling, and where a pattern remains obscure in the face of a plaintiff's diligence in seeking to identify it, equitable tolling may be one answer to the plaintiff's difficulty." Id. at 560-561 (internal citation omitted). Fraudulent concealment, or "affirmative continuing acts of fraud . . . coupled with active coverup of the fraud," may also justify relief from a statute of limitations that appears to have run. Klehr, 521 U.S. at 194. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has explicitly approved the use of equitable tolling principles in civil RICO suits. See Bankers Trust Co. v. Rhoades, 859 F.2d 1096, 1105 (2d Cir. 1988) ("[T]he standard tolling exceptions apply.").

2. Procedural History

When the court denied defendants' initial motion to dismiss on statute of limitations grounds, it noted the difficulties of proof facing plaintiffs at trial. It stated that a troubling critical problem for plaintiffs is that some members of the class almost certainly were aware long before 2000 that "light" cigarettes were not appreciably safer for them than regular cigarettes. The statute would bar their claims. Yet the plaintiffs may be able to show that a substantial number of smokers were not aware before May 2000. The individual class members and their times of awareness may well have differed over the years. Suppose, for example, that one million became aware in 1998, one million in 1999, one million in 2000 and one million in 2001. The first two million (1998-1999) would be barred, the third (2000) could be deemed damaged for a year or less, and the fourth (2001) for somewhat more than a year. According to plaintiffs' theory of the case, the particular persons in each group cannot be known. Assuming a jury could find defendants liable, recovery would have to depend upon a statistical analysis to estimate how many smokers knew what and when. See Mem. Order of Sep. 29, 2005 (Docket No. 763) (discussing Daubert issues). One of the ways that plaintiffs might proceed would be, the court pointed out:

1) Based on surveys, other evidence and extrapolation, plaintiffs' experts might develop a model showing how many smokers of "light" cigarettes were ignorant of the alleged fraud in each relevant year. 2) Based on evidence, plaintiffs' experts might estimate the "pack premium" paid by smokers because of the fraud, and the total class damages for each year. 3) To provide a total loss for the period of liability fixed by the jury, the damages for each year might be summed up. 4) Members of the class might prove by affidavits the number of packs of "light" cigarettes they bought during the period to receive a pro rata share of damages. Calculations might have to exclude geographic areas such as Illinois where, in the Price case, sales overcharges were recovered in a separate state substantive law fraud recovery and the recovery was then overturned on appeal on state-law grounds.

The population of smokers is not static. There was during the applicable time of alleged fraud a continuing introduction into the class of naive new smokers, including children who may have had no inkling of the extensive literature in the field concerning health risks of "light" and regular cigarettes, newly addicted sophisticated adults and other new smokers. Over the years there was also a continuing seepage out of the class of those who quit smoking, either voluntarily because of what they had learned about health risks; concern about their children's health; or disapproval of their spouses, peers and employers; or involuntarily because of death. Between the completely naive and the completely sophisticated lies a broad changing spectrum of smokers with partial knowledge that may or may not have been fully assimilated. There are, as defendants rightly suggest, probably as many variations in knowledge as there are individual smokers.

In short, to avoid the statute of limitations and determine total damages, plaintiffs' theory may depend upon an estimate predicated largely on expert testimony that may require disaggregation of smokers by knowledge, year by year, with reintegration to obtain total damages. Such estimates, if properly modeled and supported by evidence, may be appropriately used to resolve factual issues not susceptible of direct proof. See, e.g., Federal Judicial Center, Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence 2 (2d ed. 2000) (Breyer, J., describing the "great weight" the Supreme Court had placed on statistical analysis in recent cases); id. at 83-178 (offering guidelines for the judicial supervision of statistical evidence); id. at 229-276 (guidelines for survey data); id. at 277-334 (damages); American Bar Association, Econometrics 179-224 (2005) (use of statistical techniques in class certification to demonstrate existence of common issues); id. at 1 n. 2 (noting widespread use of statistical analyses outside antitrust context).

Prior discussion by the court in this case may have caused confusion in two respects. First, its attention to the proofs required of plaintiffs at trial may have distracted from a central point: that the statute of limitations is an affirmative defense. Second, its exposition of a possible form of proof may have been regarded by the parties as a required form of proof. Money and time are finite; courts (and parties) rarely get the crystal clear evidence they would prefer. The "time study" of plaintiffs' expert Dr. Hauser — an effort to measure, using surveys and extrapolation, when members of the class actually learned of the alleged fraud — seemed that it might be a useful possible source of proof on this issue; it has been withdrawn by plaintiffs.

3. Application of Law to Facts

a. Actual knowledge

As to actual knowledge, defendants point to several surveys and statements by experts that less than a majority of smokers believe "light" cigarettes are healthier than regular cigarettes. Defs.' Br. in Opp. to Class Cert. 38-40. These surveys are controverted by plaintiffs, who rely upon surveys referred to in Monograph 13 and the expert reports of Katherine Kinsella (detailing news releases), Michael Dennis (interviews with named plaintiffs), and Robert Proctor (analyzing when smokers might reasonably have learned of the fraud). As to imputed knowledge that a smoker reasonably should have been expected to have, defendants have marshaled a number of media reports, public service announcements and case filings. These, too, are met with evidence supplied by plaintiffs.

Defendants also argue that smokers' knowledge for statute of limitations purposes must be decided for each individual smoker, making the statute of limitations defense presumptively valid and the class action unmanageable. See discussion of aggregate proof in Part IX.A, infra (rejecting this contention).

Untenable is plaintiffs' extreme position that no member of the class discovered the injury, and so set the statute of limitations running, before May 11, 2000 (four years before the complaint was filed). Some undoubtedly discovered the alleged fraud earlier, and of those some may have then quit smoking. The gradual attrition of those smokers who did not know or could not reasonably have known presents a problem of proof for plaintiffs' experts. It does not require the dismissal of the entire proposed class. Based upon the experts' reports and extrapolation from available facts, it is possible to make reasonable estimates by appropriate time periods of those whose claims would be barred by the statute of limitations. In addition, if the jury finds some claims barred, the equitable tolling rule may ameliorate the statute of limitations problem. See Part III.E.3.d, infra.

b. Imputed knowledge

Plaintiffs filed this case on May 11, 2004, claiming economic injuries arising from their fraud-induced purchases of light cigarettes marketed by defendants since 1971. The bar of limitations is measured from a date four years earlier — May 11, 2000. Should plaintiffs have known of the fraud prior to that date?

i. Class counsel's knowledge

Many attorneys knew of the dangers of "light" cigarettes long before 2000. A substantial number of actions based on grounds of fraud much like those now alleged were brought earlier than May 11 of that year. Putative class counsel in the present case — Cohen, Milstein, Hausfeld Toll, P.L.L.C. and Finkelstein, Thompson Loughran ("plaintiffs' counsel") — filed four similar "light" cigarettes class actions in various state courts in 1998 and 1999: Aspinall v. Philip Morris Cos., No. 98-6002 (Mass.Sup.Ct.) (filed Nov. 25, 1998); Cummis v. Philip Morris Cos., No. L-2114-98 (N.J.Super.Ct.) (filed July 9, 1998); Marrone v. Philip Morris Cos., No. 99 CIV 0954 (Ohio Ct. Com. Pl.) (filed Nov. 8, 1999); McClure v. Altria Group, Inc., No. 99C148 (Tenn. Cir. Ct.) (filed Jan. 19, 1999). Other "of counsel" attorneys to the class filed two "light" cigarettes class actions in state courts during the same period: Oliver v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., No. 268 (Pa.Ct.Com.Pl.) (filed Mar. 6, 1998); Trombino v. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., No. L-11263-98 (N.J.Super.Ct.) (filed Jan. 19, 1999). In those state class actions, plaintiffs sought economic damages on state fraud and consumer protection law grounds alleging facts similar to those now relied upon. In 1999, the United States government filed a widely remarked upon complaint in federal district court for damages and injunctive relief under RICO and other statutes alleging that the tobacco companies misled consumers about the dangers of "light" cigarettes. That case, United States v. Philip Morris, was recently tried to a judgment. See 449 F. Supp. 2d 1, No. Civ. A. 99-2496 (GK), 2006 WL 2380622 (Aug. 17, 2006) (part 1 of 6). Other private and state government plaintiffs filed RICO and consumer fraud suits in the 1990s alleging deceptive marketing of "light" cigarettes. See, e.g., Allman v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 94-0504-IEG (S.D. Cal.); Mass. v. Philip Morris Inc., No. 95-7378 (Mass. Dist. Ct.); Maryland v. Philip Morris Inc., No. 96122017/CL211487 (Md. Cir. Ct.); Oregon v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 9706-04457 (Or. Cir. Ct.); Blue Cross Blue Shield ofN.J., Inc. v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. CV 98 3287 (E.D.N.Y.).

It is not denied that plaintiffs' counsel has had knowledge of the RICO injury alleged in this matter since at least July 1998, when they filed a class action alleging a similar fraud in New Jersey state court. Defendants contend that this knowledge should be imputed to the entire class under principles of agency. To do so would bar the suit entirely.

"The relationship between an attorney and the client he or she represents in a lawsuit is one of agent and principal." Veal v. Geraci, 23 F.3d 722, 725 (2d Cir. 1994); see Restatement (Third) of the Law Governing Lawyers Ch. 2 Introductory Note (2000) (the attorney-client relationship is, "from one point of view, derived from the law of agency."). In a conventional attorney-client relationship, the attorney's knowledge is imputed to the client. Geraci, 23 F.3d at 725; Restatement (Third) of the Law Governing Lawyers ("Information imparted to a lawyer during and relating to the representation of a client is attributed to the client for the purpose of determining the client's rights and liabilities in matters in which the lawyer represents the client. . . ."); see generally Restatement (Second) of Agency § 272 (agent's knowledge imputed to principal). An attorney's knowledge of an injury may work to bar his client's claim under a statute of limitations. See Geracia at 725 (plaintiff's § 1983 claim time-barred because his attorney knew of injury outside three-year statute of limitations period).

In some cases it is appropriate for an attorney's knowledge to be imputed to the client, particularly where there is a single attorney and a single known client in an ongoing relationship. That is not the situation now presented. In the instant case defendants seek to impute the knowledge of counsel to a class of unidentified plaintiffs numbering in the tens of millions who claim they were defrauded for decades. Principles of agency applicable in the single-attorney-single-client relationship cannot be transposed into the class action context under present circumstances. Cf. Restatement (Third) of the Law Governing Lawyers § 14 cmt. f ("Class actions may pose difficult questions of client identification."). How can a smoker who was not even aware when he purchased a pack of cigarettes years ago that any of the class attorneys existed be assumed to have known what the attorneys knew?

"Agency is the fiduciary relation which results from the manifestation of consent by one person to another that the other shall act on his behalf and subject to his control, and consent by the other so to act." Restatement (Second) of Agency § 1(1) (1958). Without consent by both parties, there can be no principal-agent relationship. See Restatement (Second) of Agency § 15. Unnamed class members have not yet "consented" to be represented by putative class counsel; these attorneys cannot be their agent for purposes of imputing knowledge of danger. The role of class counsel is akin to that of a judicially appointed fiduciary, not that of a privately retained attorney. See Restatement (Second) of Agency § 14F ("A person appointed by a court to manage the affairs of others is not an agent of the others."); cf. Rule 23(g), Fed.R.Civ.P. (setting forth standards governing mandatory court appointment of class counsel).

The mass nature of the class action requires that both the court and counsel carefully protect unnamed plaintiffs' rights. See Amchem Products, Inc. v. Windsor, 521 U.S. 591, 117 S. Ct. 2231 (1997); Ortiz v. Fibreboard Corp., 527 U.S. 815, 119 S. Ct. 2295 (1999); see generally John C. Coffee, Jr., Class Wars: The Dilemma of the Mass Tort Class Action, 95 Colum. L. Rev. 1343 (1995); Monograph, Individual Justice in Mass Tort Litigation 53 ff. (1995) (noting the ethical challenges facing class counsel). It does not permit the imposition of the principles of agency in a way that would bar the suit and deprive class members of experienced counsel. The knowledge of class counsel cannot be imputed to the members of the class for the purposes of determining whether this suit is barred by the statute of limitations.

The attorneys' knowledge is not decisive. What is critical is what and when the plaintiffs knew or should have known.

ii. Class members' knowledge

One line of cases, relied upon by defendants, has described the statute of limitations inquiry in terms of "storm warnings" — any information "that would alert a reasonable person to the probability that misleading statements or significant omissions had been made." Cetel v. Kirwan Financial Group., Inc., No. 04-3408, 2006 WL 2466855 at *7 (3rd Cir. August 28, 2006); see also Nivram Corp. v. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc., 840 F. Supp. 243, 249 (S.D.N.Y. 1993); Mathews v. Kidder, Peabody Co., 260 F.3d 239, 252 (3rd Cir. 2001). Under these cases, the initial burden to show the existence of "storm warnings" rests with defendants, and, if determined, "the second step then shifts the burden to plaintiffs to show that, heeding the storm warnings, they exercised reasonable diligence but were unable to find and avoid the storm." Cetel, 2006 WL 2466855 at *7.

The enormous amount of conflicting evidence filed by the parties on the subject of consumer knowledge demonstrates that genuine issues of fact exist. Defendants cite several cases dismissed on "storm warnings" grounds. See, e.g., Isaak v. Trumbull Savs. Loan Co., 169 F.3d 390 (6th Cir. 1999) (dismissing RICO claim against banks that provided loans to owners and developers of undeveloped timeshare); In re Burbank Envt'l Litig., 42 F. Supp. 2d 976 (C.D. Cal 1998) (dismissing CERCLA claim against defendants for groundwater contamination). They are marked by the clear, pervasive and unequivocal nature of the warnings. See Isaak, 169 F.3d at 401 (plaintiffs had retained counsel, filed formal complaints, or abandoned ownership interests outside statute of limitations period; widespread newspaper accounts of state investigation into the resorts reported that the owners diverted plaintiffs' payments for their personal use); Burbank Envt'l, 42 F. Supp. 2d at 981 (plaintiffs were inundated by media reports, public meetings, and lawsuits; plaintiffs conceded that they had known of the contamination outside of the statute of limitations period). They are distinguishable from the notice provided in the instant case.

Defendants make a strong case that plaintiffs knew or should have known of their claimed economic injuries years before 2000. A number of reports appeared in newspapers, popular magazines, textbooks, government pamphlets, television news programs and public service announcements from the late 1950s to the present indicating that "light" cigarettes were not as safe as portrayed by defendants. Tens of millions of pages of internal documents could easily be obtained for research as a result of the Master Settlement Agreement of November 23, 1998 between the tobacco industry and various states' attorneys general. The Agreement provided that the tobacco companies would make available through their web sites and at a central depository in Minnesota many of the documents produced during discovery of the states' attorneys general actions. See Master Settlement Agreement ("MSA") 29-32. Not all of these documents were available at once; the earliest posting on the Philip Morris USA Document Site, for example, appears to be February 1998. Many of the documents relied upon by plaintiffs' counsel were available long before 2000 through the defendants' web sites and other channels.

In response, plaintiffs argue that plaintiffs' constant exposure to defendants' marketing overwhelmed any doubts they may have had about "light" cigarettes. Plaintiffs also point to the testimony of tobacco industry executives who testified that, into the late 1990s, they were ignorant of the phenomenon of compensation — a technique used by many smokers to increase their intake of nicotine and tar from "low-tar" cigarettes. The Price court found that Monograph 13 represented the first scientific consensus on the true nature of "light" cigarettes; it appears to have concluded that the class could not be deemed to have known of the fraud prior to the publication of the monograph. Id. at ¶ 80. Defendants contest this point, arguing that Monograph 13 was only a reinterpretation of existing studies. Tr. of Sept. 12-13, 2005 Hr'g 229.

Despite the questionable existence of adequate "storm warnings," given the number of plaintiffs, some of them were undoubtedly alerted to a possible fraud. Under this line of cases, the burden would shift to these plaintiffs to show that reasonable diligence would not have uncovered their injury. Assuming, without deciding, that the "storm warnings" precedents apply in this case, it is impossible to resolve this issue on summary judgment. The equivocal and sometimes conflicting information provided by defendants and the media before 2000 make it premature to determine, as a matter of law, that plaintiffs' claims are barred. If this case goes to trial, it will be for a jury to determine when plaintiffs had actual knowledge or should have had knowledge of the alleged fraud. Cf. Bingham v. Zolt, 66 F.3d 553, 558 (2d Cir. 1995) (jury asked to determine "when the estate actually knew of defendants' alleged wrongful acts").

The instant matter is unlike other RICO statute of limitations cases before the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. Other litigations have dealt with either individuals in close contact with the persons who defrauded them, see, e.g., Tho Dinh Tran v. Alphonse Hotel Corp., 281 F.3d 23 (2d Cir. 2002) (hotel employee suing hotel); Bingham, 66 F.3d 553 (administrator of estate suing decedent's legal advisors); Turkish v. Kasenetz, 27 F.3d 23 (2d Cir. 1994) (trust beneficiaries suing administrators), or sophisticated plaintiffs who invested significant amounts of money in a venture controlled by defendants. See, e.g., In re Merrill Lynch Ltd. P'ships Litig., 154 F.3d 56 (2d Cir. 1998) (investors in real estate limited partnerships); First Nationwide Bank v. Gelt Funding Corp., 27 F.3d 763 (2d Cir. 1994) (federal stock association lending money to mortgage broker). Such plaintiffs in ongoing business relationships with defendants can be expected to be alert to the possibility of fraud in a way that the average smoker, spending a few dollars for a pack of cigarettes as a matter of habit, may not be. The plaintiffs in the instant matter are members of a nationwide mass market; their interaction with defendants was largely limited to advertisements and other general knowledge.

Under either the "storm warnings" analysis or more general Second Circuit approach, a jury question is presented.

c. Separate accrual

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has adopted a "separate accrual" rule in civil RICO cases under which "a new claim accrues and the four-year limitation period begins anew each time a plaintiff discovers or should have discovered a new and independent injury." In re Merrill Lynch, 154 F.3d at 59 (separate accrual rule not applicable on the facts). If this rule were to apply here, it might permit recovery for economic damages suffered by plaintiffs on all packs of cigarettes purchased after May 11, 2000, four years before class counsel filed the complaint in this matter. Defendants argue that the rule is inapplicable because plaintiffs have alleged a single injury — the loss of value in packages of "light" cigarettes purchased in reliance on defendants' alleged fraud. Plaintiffs have not relied on the separate accrual rule in their papers in opposition to summary judgment, possibly for the sensible reason that if knowledge barred all claims for purchases before May 11, 2000, a fortiori it applied to purchases after that date.

d. Equitable tolling

Plaintiffs raise defendants' alleged ongoing deception as a bar to the statute of limitations defense. See, e.g., Part V.C.3.d, infra (ongoing increase in nicotine levels of "light" and other cigarettes). Their argument is essentially one of estoppel: the tobacco companies made tremendous efforts to keep the truth about "light" cigarettes from smokers and so should be estopped from arguing that the smokers learned the truth anyhow.

Plaintiffs chronicle the past and ongoing efforts of the tobacco industry to induce public misperception of the health risks posed by smoking by indicating their doubt about the truth of warnings by the health services community, and by limiting the release of their own scientific studies; lobbying the Federal Trade Commission; cloaking documents with the attorney-client privilege; conducting animal studies outside the United States so that the results would remain secret; and working with scientists sympathetic to the industry to produce reports favorable to the industry's health claims. See Simon II, Appendix D, at Part III.B.4, infra.

One court apparently adopted the estoppel theory. See Price, Appendix C, infra. The Illinois court ruled that since evidence at that trial established that Philip Morris had concealed the truth about "light" cigarettes until November 2002 (when it added inserts to packages of "light" cigarettes that warned of their dangers), it could not assert that the plaintiffs should have been aware of the information any earlier. Price at ¶ 81. As to actual knowledge, the court found that the company's decision to publish the inserts so widely (and duplicate their contents in newspaper advertisements and on its website) provided strong evidence that its customers were unaware earlier of the risks the inserts described. Id.

Whether the largely unknown still continuing increase in nicotine content provides a new basis for tolling, see Appendix F, infra, is a matter that need not now be addressed. See Part V.C.3.d (discussing the increase reported by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health). See also Simon II, Appendix D, at Part III.B.5, infra.

There is ample direct and indirect evidence of continuing coverups of the fraud by defendants. Based on the evidence, and experts' reports, a jury could find that many members of the proposed class did not discover the fraud because of defendants' inequitable conduct. Those smokers would not be barred by the statute of limitations. The number of smokers for whom the statute should be tolled during various periods may be determined from plaintiffs' experts and the available evidence. Equitable estoppel may provide another independent basis for not dismissing the suit on the ground of the statute of limitations.

Only if the jury finds plaintiffs' claims barred by the statute of limitations will equitable tolling be considered. See Beacon Theatres, Inc. v. Westover, 359 U.S. 500, 508, 79 S. Ct. 948 (1959) (where suit raises both legal and equitable issues, legal issues must be tried to a jury before resolution of any equitable issues by the court).

4. Conclusion on Statute of Limitations

Because the statute of limitations is an affirmative defense and it cannot be said with any assurance that defendants would necessarily succeed in proving the defense at trial, the motion is denied. Defendants have not shown that the class members' claims are barred as a matter of law. Whether the issue is susceptible to class-wide treatment is discussed in Part VII.D.2.b.iii, infra.

IV. Collateral Estoppel

The interactions between this case and others like it in which plaintiffs have sought recompense against these same defendants for harm caused by the sale or consumption of "light" cigarettes must be considered. Affected may be the motion to dismiss, issues to be decided by the trier, or the decision on certification. As indicated below, a substantial argument can be made that collateral estoppel makes it unnecessary to retry certain issues of fact, such as fraud and continuing concealment. Nevertheless, in the exercise of its discretion and in the interest of fairness to defendants, the doctrine will not be applied.

A. Law

Under claim preclusion, "[a] final judgment on the merits of an action precludes the parties or their privies from re-litigating issues that were or could have been raised in that action." Federated Dep't Stores, Inc. v. Moitie, 452 U.S. 394, 398, 101 S. Ct. 2424 (1981). "Whether there is claim preclusion depends upon whether the same or connected transactions are at issue and the same proof is needed to support the claims in both suits or, in other words, whether facts essential to the second suit were present in the first suit." Curtis v. Citibank, N.A., 226 F.3d 133, 139 (2d Cir. 2000). "[T]hat several operative facts may be common to successive actions between the same parties does not mean that the claim asserted in the second is the same that was litigated in the first, and that litigation of the second is therefore precluded by the judgment in the first." NLRB v. United Techs. Corp., 706 F.2d 1254, 1259 (2d Cir. 1983).

"One of the most general reasons for separating claims is that a broad course of completed unlawful conduct has included a clearly separable event that gave rise to distinctive injury." 18 Charles Alan Wright, et al., § 4408 (2002). In this situation, claim preclusion would not apply, though, issue preclusion may still arise. Issue preclusion "means simply that when an issue of ultimate fact has once been determined by a valid and final judgment, that issue cannot again be litigated between the same parties in any future lawsuit." Schiro v. Farley, 510 U.S. 222, 232, 114 S. Ct. 783 (1994). Therefore if a suit shares some of the operative facts as a previous suit, issue preclusion will arise if those operative facts were determined by a valid and final judgment in the previous suit — but claim preclusion may not.

B. Preclusive Effect in Possible Future Bodily Injury Cases

This is a civil class action under RICO for monetary loss based on the price paid for a product sold in violation of federal mail and wire fraud substantive law. The proposed class consists of all persons who purchased "light" cigarettes including those who: (1) did not use the product; (2) used the product and suffered no physical or other harm; (3) used the product and will suffer future physical or other harm; (4) used the product and have already suffered physical or other harm. It is conceivable that claim preclusion might apply to prevent those who have suffered physical or other harm, or will suffer future harms caused by the use of the product based on fraud under state substantive law from bringing a cause of action based on these physical harms. If those persons would be precluded from bringing a future cause of action then it might be useful for those claims to be severed, with a subclass created so that they may bring those claims now. If those personal injury claims would not be precluded, then bringing a class action on behalf of all those who purchased the product would not pose a problem.

This civil RICO suit shares operative facts with a cause of action for the physical or other harm caused by use of the product based on fraud under state substantive law. The instant suit, however, does not present the essential facts necessary for a personal injury suit, and therefore claim preclusion would not bar plaintiffs from bringing such a suit after this one.

A suit for physical or other injury based on use of the product would require proof of several essential facts not present in a RICO suit, namely that the plaintiffs used the product, and that the product's use caused harm to plaintiffs. The source of injury in the suit for monetary loss is the purchase of the product, rather than its use. See Restatement (Second) of Judgments § 24(2) ("What factual grouping constitutes a "transaction," and what groupings constitute a 'series', are to be determined pragmatically, giving weight to such considerations as whether the facts are related in time, space, origin, or motivation, whether they form a convenient trial unit, and whether their treatment as a unit conforms to the parties' expectations or business understanding or usage.") (emphasis supplied).

An additional factor suggesting that the claims for monetary loss caused by purchasing the product is different from the claim for harm caused by use of the product is that the claims matured at different times. The RICO claims matured immediately upon the purchase of the product, while the claims for injuries resulting from use of the product matured only after the sustained use of the product caused such injuries.

Since the evidence, facts, and issues necessary to maintain a cause of action for physical injury are separate and distinct from those required in this civil RICO case and a different judgment in any personal injury suit brought by a class member would not impair rights established by any judgment in the civil RICO case, any future physical injury claims would not constitute the same cause of action for purposes of claim preclusion.

C. Claim Splitting

For the same reason described immediately supra, defendants' challenge to certification on the basis of claim splitting is rejected. See Pearson, 2006 WL 663004 at *8 (rejecting claim-splitting challenge); Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 397 n. 19 (same); Craft, 2003 WL 23355745 at *13 (same; "any and all claims for personal injury . . . could not realistically be included in this [consumer fraud] action. . . .").

To avoid any future contention about bars for claim preclusion, any personal injury claims of class members are deemed specifically preserved. See Restatement (Second) of Judgments § 26(1)(b) (claims possibly subject to preclusion may be specifically preserved by the court adjudicating the first action).

D. Preclusive Effect of United States v. Philip Morris

The final opinion issued in United States v. Philip Morris reaches conclusions on a number of factual issues germane to this case. See Appendix A, infra. Plaintiffs argue that these should collaterally estop defendants from relitigation of those issues in the present suit.

Collateral estoppel prevents a party from relitigating, in a subsequent proceeding, an issue of fact or law that was fully and fairly litigated in a prior proceeding. In the federal system collateral estoppel may be applied offensively to foreclose a defendant from relitigating an issue that it has previously litigated unsuccessfully against another plaintiff. See Parklane Hosiery Co. v. Shore, 439 U.S. 322, 99 S.Ct. 645, 58 L.Ed.2d 552 (1979).

For a plaintiff to bar a defendant from litigating an issue based on collateral estoppel:

(1) the issues in the proceedings must be identical, (2) the issue in the prior proceeding must have been actually litigated and actually decided, (3) there must have been a full and fair opportunity for litigation in the prior proceeding, and (4) the issue previously litigated must have been necessary to support a valid and final judgment on the merits.

Faulkner v. Nat'l Geographic Enters., Inc., 409 F.3d 26, 37 (2d Cir. 2005). Application of offensive collateral estoppel is at the trial court's discretion. Parklane Hosiery, 439 U.S. at 331.

There is a strong argument for offensive collateral estoppel in this case. Present plaintiffs make identical allegations to those made in United States v. Philip Morris and bring their suit under the identical statute. Compare SAC ¶¶ 7-8 (alleging conspiracy to mislead the American public about the health risks of "light" cigarettes) with United States v. Philip Morris, ¶¶ 2626-2629 (concluding, by "clear and convincing evidence," that defendants knew there was no clear health benefit from low-tar and "light" cigarettes; knew smokers "were willing to trade flavor for reassurance that their brands carried lower health risks"; extensively marketed their "light" and low-tar brands to take advantage of smokers' concerns; and "[b]y engaging in this deception . . . dramatically increased their sales of low tar/light cigarettes, assuaged the fears of smokers about the health risks of smoking, and sustained corporate revenues in the face of mounting evidence about the health dangers of smoking."). Matters in direct issue in both the federal government's suit and the present one include:

1. Defendants devised and executed a scheme to defraud consumers by falsely denying, distorting, and minimizing the significant adverse health consequences of smoking. Appendix A at ¶¶ 509-1365, infra.

2. Despite their knowledge that "light" cigarettes provide no clear health benefit, defendants falsely marketed and promoted "light" cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes in order to keep their customers smoking and sustain corporate revenues. This plan was successful. Appendix A at ¶¶ 2023-2629, infra.

3. Defendants attempted to and did suppress and conceal scientific research and destroy documents relevant to their public and litigation positions. Appendix A at ¶¶ 3683-3855, infra.

There was a full and fair opportunity to litigate these issues in the prior action: more than eighty four witnesses testified in a nine month bench trial. Defendants had every incentive to fully and vigorously litigate the claim against them; before an interlocutory order restricting disgorgement was issued by the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, $289 billion of allegedly ill-gotten gains were at risk. Even after the appellate court's limitation on available remedies, defendants' valuable brand identities were at risk: the government requested, and the court entered, an order enjoining defendants from using the term "lights" and other such descriptors. The posture of the previous action was identical to the present case. The extent of the litigation, the competence and experience of defense counsel, and the availability of evidence were the same. At least some of the issues in the previous case — e.g., the existence of defendants' enterprise, the deception of the public — were necessary to support the verdict.

Despite the good reasons to employ collateral estoppel, the court exercises its discretion not to do so. The fairness of its application in the present instance is questionable. See Parklane Hosiery, 439 U.S. at 330-331 (identifying situations where the use of offensive collateral estoppel might be unfair). First, in the government suit, defendant Liggett was, in effect, a prevailing party. Collateral estoppel could not be applied against it. See, e.g., Boguslavsky v. Kaplan, 159 F.3d 715, 720 (2d Cir. 1998) ("[T]he resolution of the issue [must be] necessary to support a valid and final judgment [against the party] on the merits" in the prior action). Application of estoppel to all but one of many defendants would confuse the jury, making administration of the case more difficult. Second, defendants have won so many of the tobacco cases that applying the rule of the Restatement according conclusive effect to the last of the series of litigations is inappropriate. Cf., e.g., Restatement (Second) of Judgments § 15 cmt. c (applying rule in one defendant-one plaintiff cases); Parklane Hosiery, 439 U.S. at 300 n. 14 (cautioning against applying collateral estoppel when the last judgment is inconsistent with prior judgments favoring the defendant). Third, little efficiency would be gained: plaintiffs' proof of reliance and damages would almost certainly — as a matter of legal burden and persuasive strategy — require presentation of all evidence available to them of defendants' alleged scheme.

E. Preclusive Effect of Overlapping Class Actions

A number of state class actions alleging fraud in the sale of "light" cigarettes have been filed. See Part II.D, supra (listing and discussing these). Any plaintiff claims bound by a decision on the merits in one of those actions will be excluded from any recovery secured in this suit. See, e.g., Beckv. Levering, 947 F.2d 639 (2d Cir. 1991) (collateral estoppel and double recovery); LaFleur v. Whitman, 300 F.3d 256, 271 (2d Cir. 2002) (choice of law in collateral estoppel); Bajwa v. Metropolitan Life Ins. Co., 208 Ill. 2d 414 (2004) (Illinois collateral estoppel rule). The definition of the class accomplishes this result.

The preclusive effect of particular state actions on this suit has not been fully briefed; decision now would be premature. The preclusive effect of a suit decided against plaintiffs on grounds peculiar to state law, rather than on the facts, see, e.g., Price (described in Part II.D, supra) is dubious. For the reasons stated in D, supra, preclusive effect should not be given to any state judgment against defendants.

V. Defendants' Other Summary Judgment Motions

A. Mutagenicity of "Light" Cigarettes

Pursuant to Rule 56 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure, defendants move for partial summary judgment dismissing plaintiffs' claims concerning the health risks of "light" cigarettes based on mutagenicity or toxic constituents. The motion is denied.

In support of their claim that defendants misled smokers about the health risks of "light" cigarettes, plaintiffs allege that defendants had substantial evidence that "light" cigarettes "could be even more harmful than regular cigarettes" and did not communicate this knowledge to consumers. See SAC ¶¶ 7 (allegation), 105-107 (quoting internal company documents revealing knowledge), 108 (failure to warn consumers). Defendants, contending that no competent evidence demonstrates increased toxicity to the degree required by precedent, seek partial summary judgment on all claims based on those allegations.

Defendants misconstrue the purpose of plaintiffs' evidence. Plaintiffs allege generally that defendants misled the American public by representing "light" cigarettes to be less dangerous than regular cigarettes when they knew they were not. The result, plaintiffs claim, was a stronger market for defendants' products than would otherwise have been the case and so a greater price per pack than would otherwise have been the case. As part of this scheme, plaintiffs contend, defendants refrained from conducting research that might reveal the dangers of their cigarettes and suppressed the results of the research they did conduct. Evidence that some internal tests of defendants revealed a risk of increased mutagenicity or toxicity from the ventilation holes of "light" cigarettes — and that defendants did not reveal this information to their consumers but instead continued to make explicit and implicit health claims about "light" cigarettes — would tend to prove the alleged fraud.

It is not actual increased toxicity, but defendants' knowledge of a possible risk, that plaintiffs need to demonstrate. This is a case of alleged fraud resulting in economic harm, not medical injury. Case law cited by defendants establishing the standard of proof required for increased risk claims in personal injury torts — a "reasonable medical certainty," see, e.g., In re Agent Orange Prod. Liab. Litig., 611 F. Supp. 1223, 1262-63 (E.D.N.Y. 1985) — are thus inapposite. Defendants' arguments that the test results referred to by plaintiffs are unreliable and do not demonstrate to a scientific certainty an increased risk of harm in humans are irrelevant for the same reason.

The motion for partial summary judgment on mutagenicity is denied. Defendants will be free to argue at trial that the test results referred to by plaintiffs were so insignificant as to not confer upon them a duty to disclose, and that the price of "light" cigarettes would not have suffered had those results been known.

B. Defendant BATCo's Separate Motion for Summary Judgment on All Claims

Defendant BATCo moves to dismiss pursuant to Rule 56 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure on the ground that plaintiffs cannot establish BATCo's liability for conduct of the enterprise; cannot prove BATCo's participation in the conspiracy charged; and cannot demonstrate that they have suffered compensable damages as a result of BATCo's conduct. Similar motions filed by BATCo in other litigations have been rejected. See United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 321 F. Supp. 2d 82, 85-86 (D.D.C. 2004) (denying BATCo's motion for summary judgment in government's civil RICO suit for cigarette fraud, including misrepresentations about the health risks of "light" cigarettes); Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey, Inc. v. Philip Morris, Inc., 113 F. Supp. 2d 345, 367-368 (E.D.N.Y. 2000) (denying BATCo's motion for summary judgment in civil RICO suit alleging deception regarding the health risks of all cigarettes).

BATCo repeats a number of the challenges made by all defendants in their group motion for summary judgment on causation, injury, and damages. For the reasons set forth in Part III, supra, these are rejected. Several challenges stemming from BATCo's position as a foreign corporation merit separate consideration.

1. Extraterritoriality of RICO

BATCo challenges the court's subject matter jurisdiction over those parts of plaintiffs' claims based on BATCo's membership in foreign trade associations.

a. Law

The Supreme Court has not ruled on the extraterritorial reach of RICO; the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has discussed, but not resolved it. See North South Fin. Corp. v. Al-Turki, 100 F.3d 1046, 1051 (2d Cir. 1996) ("[S]pecifying the test for the extraterritorial application of RICO is delicate work. That work has not been done, but we need not do it now.").

Al-Turki considered two possible tests — the "conduct test" and the "effects test" — drawn from securities and antitrust law. The securities "conduct test" confers subject matter jurisdiction on a court if "conduct material to the completion of the fraud occurred in the United States. Mere preparatory activities, and conduct far removed from the consummation of the fraud, will not suffice to establish jurisdiction." 100 F.3d at 1051. The "effects test" differs slightly under the antitrust and securities laws, but in either case confers jurisdiction on a court if the alleged wrongful conduct causes "substantial effects within the United States." Id.

Courts in this and other circuits have applied both, either, and neither of the two tests. See, e.g., Madanes v. Madanes, 981 F. Supp. 241 (S.D.N.Y. 1997) (concluding that both tests may confer jurisdiction); Concern Sojuzneshtrans v. Buyanovski, 80 F. Supp. 2d 273, 278 (D. N.J. 1999) (applying "conduct test" to foreign plaintiff alleging fraud committed abroad and finding it met); United States v. Noriega, 746 F. Supp. 1506, 1517 (S.D. Fla. 1990) (ruling that RICO applies extraterritorially if "the racketeering activities produce effects or are intended to produce effects in this country"); Thai Airways Intern. Ltd. v. United Aviation Leasing B. V., 842 F. Supp. 1567, 1571 (S.D.N.Y. 1994) (declining to "measure the extraterritorial reach of RICO" because allegations of racketeering activity occurring within the United States were sufficient to confer subject matter jurisdiction). In Al-Turki, the Court of Appeals suggested that the antitrust "effects test" might be the most appropriate under RICO, since RICO's civil provisions are based on the antitrust Clayton Act. See 100 F.3d at 1052.

The results of these two tests are not determinative. Securities and antitrust law are analogous, not controlling sources of law. The "ultimate inquiry," according to the Court of Appeals, is whether "Congress would have wished the precious resources of United States courts and law enforcement agencies to be devoted to [the alleged fraud] rather than leave the problem to foreign countries." Id. (quoting Bersch v. Drexel Firestone, Inc., 519 F.2d 974, 985 (2d Cir.), cert. denied, 423 U.S. 1018 (1975) (alteration removed)).

b. Application of law to facts

It is necessary to correct a misapprehension. Defendant BATCo cites Al-Turki for the proposition that RICO plaintiffs must demonstrate that a defendant's foreign conduct had direct and substantial adverse effects within the United States for jurisdiction to obtain; that case does not so hold. First, the "direct and substantial effects" test that BATCo advances is a combination of the alternative "conduct" and "effects" tests. Second, the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit made no ruling on the applicability of either of those tests under RICO. See id. at 1052, quoted supra.

Under either alternative test, BATCo's alleged conduct is sufficient to confer subject matter jurisdiction. Plaintiffs have alleged that BATCo participated in a conspiracy to deceive the American public through actions in the United States by deceitful marketing and manipulation of the public health community and governmental institutions in the United States, in order to prevent American smokers from learning the truth about "light" cigarettes — resulting in death, disease, and economic harm to millions. All members of the proposed class are United States residents; all damages stem from sales of "light" cigarettes within this country. Consideration of these claims is a proper and valuable use of "the precious resources of United States courts." Id. The court has jurisdiction over these claims. That some activities may have been engaged in abroad does not divest a federal court of jurisdiction. 2. BATCo's Liability

BATCo is a British corporation that sells one brand of light cigarettes in the United States. Until 1979, defendant Brown Williamson was a subsidiary of BATCo. In a corporate reorganization in 1979, BATCo relinquished ownership of Brown Williamson and became its affiliate.

a. BATCo's conduct of the enterprise

BATCo argues that plaintiffs' claims against it must fail because they cannot establish that it participated in the operation or management of the alleged RICO enterprise. In support of this argument, BATCo notes that it did not attend the December 1953 meeting of cigarette company executives where, according to the plaintiffs, the alleged enterprise was conceived; and that it was never a member of either of the two United States trade organizations through which the plaintiffs allege the enterprise was managed and directed. See, e.g., BATCo Mem. at 6-7; Reply Br. in Supp. of Def. BATCo's Mot for Summ. J. ("BATCo Reply") at 7-21.

Plaintiffs, in their opposition, demonstrate that there are numerous material issues in dispute about whether BATCo participated in the operation or management of the alleged enterprise. For example, while BATCo relies on the fact that it was not an official member of the United States trade organizations, plaintiffs allege that it nevertheless communicated and coordinated with both of them to further the enterprise's unlawful objectives. They also present evidence that BATCo created and joined related foreign trade organizations, such as the International Tobacco Information Center ("INFOTAB") and the Tobacco Research Council ("TRC"), in order to conceal, suppress, and destroy information that might adversely affect the enterprise's interests. See, e.g., Pls.' Mem. in Opp. to Def. BATCo's Mot. for Summ. J. ("Pls.' BATCo Opp.") at 4-8. See also Philip Morris USA, Inc., 321 F. Supp. 2d at 85-86 (describing the government's evidence in support of its opposition to BATCo's motion for summary judgment); United States' Mem. of Points and Authorities in Opp. to Mot. for Summ. J. by Def. BATCo at 6-49, United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 321 F. Supp. 2d 82 (D.D.C. 2004) (government's evidence regarding the motivation for global coordination and BATCo's involvement).

b. BATCo's participation in the conspiracy

BATCo argues that there is no evidence that it agreed to conspire with any of the other defendants to violate section 1962(c). See, e.g., BATCo Mem. at 20-22; BATCo Reply at 21-26. Plaintiffs, however, point to substantial circumstantial evidence that BATCo embraced, and assisted in achieving, the objectives of the conspiracy by (1) fraudulently denying the adverse health effects of smoking; (2) refraining from developing, marketing, and promoting products and feasible technologies it believed may have been likely to cause less harm than cigarettes sold at the time; (3) working with the enterprise to perpetuate the myth of independent research on smoking and health; and (4) making fraudulent representations regarding low tar cigarettes. See, e.g., Pls.' BATCo Opp. at 4-25. See also United States' Mem. of Points and Authorities in Opp. to Mot. for Summ. J. by Def. BATCo at 50-121, United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 321 F. Supp. 2d 82 (D.D.C. 2004) (government's evidence regarding BATCo's involvement in the conspiracy). Additionally, the plaintiffs allege various statements by BATCo that support the conclusion that it knew of, and supported, the central objectives of the conspiracy. See, e.g., Pls.' BATCo Opp. at 7, 9. The jury could conclude that BATCo deliberately contributed to the general deceit and mendacity permeating public debate on "light" cigarettes' dangers in the United States. It, like other defendants, took positions gravid with seeds of deception about "lights."

BATCo also maintains that plaintiffs' section 1962(d) conspiracy claim against it cannot succeed because plaintiffs cannot prove that BATCo agreed that BATCo itself would commit at least two predicate acts in furtherance of the alleged conspiracy. See, e.g., BATCo Mem. at 20-22. Even assuming that plaintiffs are unable to prove that BATCo agreed to commit two predicate acts, this argument fails for the reasons explained in Part III.A.2, supra. Civil liability under RICO does not require that each conspirator agree to the personal commission of any element of the substantive offense — including the personal commission of two predicate acts.

c. Damages

BATCo maintains that plaintiffs' claims against it must fail because they cannot demonstrate that they are entitled to compensable damages as a result of BATCo's conduct. Even assuming that the plaintiffs cannot prove that they suffered damages as a result of their reliance on the predicate acts specifically alleged against BATCo, this argument does not persuade. As is described in Part V.B.1.2.b, supra, members of a RICO enterprise are liable for the foreseeable acts of their coconspirators taken in furtherance of the objectives of the conspiracy. As a result, if BATCo is found to have participated in the enterprise or the conspiracy with one or more of the other defendants and plaintiffs are able to show that they suffered damages as a result of their reliance upon the acts of the other defendants, BATCo may be held liable for the overall scheme to defraud and the resulting overall damages. What portion of total computed damages, if any, that it may be forced to pay is discussed in Part IX.C, infra.

d. BATCo's association with Brown Williamson

BATCo complains that plaintiffs have attempted to "remedy the fatal flaws in their case" by pointing to actions of BATCo's affiliate, Brown Williamson, which cannot be attributed to BATCo under any alter ego or agency theory. See, e.g., BATCo Mem. at 26-30.

Because there are significant disputes about the material facts concerning BATCo's own actions, there are, at this stage, no "fatal flaws" to be remedied by allegations regarding Brown Williamson. Nevertheless, any attempt by the plaintiffs to rely on an "alter ego" theory to impute actions of Brown Williamson to BATCo fails. Any actions of Brown Williamson attributable to BATCo will be attributable to it, if at all, not because Brown Williamson was BATCo's agent or alter ego, but rather because the two were both members of the same RICO enterprise and conspiracy.

3. Conclusion on BATCo's Separate Motion

Defendant BATCo's separate motion to dismiss the claims against it is denied. As the above recitation of the parties' positions demonstrates, there are numerous disputes about material facts and about the inferences and interpretations to be drawn from those facts which can only be resolved at trial. Acts of Brown Williamson are not directly attributable to BATCo as its agent or alter ego. They may be attributed to it as a member of the enterprise and conspiracy. If BATCo is found to have participated in the charged enterprise or conspiracy, damages may be assessed against it on the theory of joint and several liability.

While the court has subject matter jurisdiction over those parts of plaintiffs' claims that are based on BATCo's membership in foreign trade associations, use of BATCo's alleged lobbying activities abroad may implicate the First Amendment right to petition a government. See E.R.R. Presidents Conference v. Noerr Motor Freight, Inc., 365 U.S. 127, 136, 81 S. Ct. 523 (1961) ( First Amendment protects right of persons to associate together "in an attempt to persuade the legislature or the executive to take particular action with respect to a law"); United Mine Workers v. Pennington, 381 U.S. 657, 85 S. Ct. 1585 (1965) (accord). But see United States v. Philip Morris, 2006 WL 2380650, at *177 (only public statements that "constitute direct attempts to persuade government officials" qualify for protection under Noerr-Pennington; press releases, advertisements, and the like that are "aimed at influencing smokers, potential smokers, and the public" do not). The court will hear motions in limine with respect to specific items of evidence offered by plaintiffs on these matters.

C. Defendant Philip Morris' Separate Motion for Summary Judgment on All Claims After November 2002

Defendant Philip Morris USA Inc. ("PM USA") moves separately for summary judgment on all plaintiffs' claims arising on or after November 2002. PM USA claims that, in November 2002 and at various times thereafter, it provided disclosure sufficient as a matter of law to prevent any plaintiff from believing that it claimed its "light" cigarettes were any less dangerous than its regular cigarettes. The sufficiency and clarity of these disclosures, as well as their effect on consumer knowledge, given the history of public statements by PM USA and other defendants, cannot be decided on summary judgment.

1. Facts

a. PM USA's disclosures

In November 2002, PM USA began to make disclosures regarding "light" cigarettes in package "onserts," pamphlets attached to the outside of cartons or packs of cigarettes of PM USA's "light" and other "reduced tar" cigarettes. The onserts explained that the "lights" descriptor refers to taste and flavor, that it was possible to compensate while smoking "light" cigarettes so as to eliminate any reduction in tar or nicotine, and that consumers should not assume that "light" cigarette brands are less harmful than "full flavor" brands:

There is no such thing as a safe cigarette. The terms "Ultra Light", "Light", "Medium" and "Mild" are used as descriptors of the strength of taste and flavor. These terms, as well as "low tar" or "lowered tar and nicotine" also serve as a relative indication of the average tar and nicotine yield per cigarette, as measured by a standard government test method.

The tar and nicotine yield numbers are not meant to communicate the amount of tar or nicotine actually inhaled by any smoker, as individuals do not smoke like the machine used in the government test method. The amount of tar and nicotine you inhale will be higher than the stated tar and nicotine yield numbers if, for example, you block ventilation holes, inhale more deeply, take more puffs or smoke more cigarettes. Similarly, if you smoke brands with descriptors such as "Ultra Light", "Light", "Medium" or "Mild," you may not inhale less tar and nicotine than you would from other brands. It depends on how you smoke. You should not assume that cigarette brands using descriptors like "Ultra Light, "Light", "Medium" or "Mild" are less harmful than "full flavor" cigarette brands or that smoking such cigarette brands will help you quit smoking. If you are concerned about the health effects of smoking, you should quit.

PM USA Onsert (Def. PM USA's Mot. for Summ. Jmnt. on Claims After Nov. 2002, Ex. A). In November 2002, PM USA enclosed about 15.6 million booklets providing similar information about "light" cigarettes and compensation in more than 25 United States newspapers.

PM USA again utilized an onsert in packages of non-full flavor cigarettes in the fourth quarter of 2003 and 2004, and the second and fourth quarters of 2005. PM USA has disclosed information on its website about "light" cigarettes and compensation since October 1999. A current web page contains information identical to that found in the newspaper booklets. See www.pmusa.com (click on link for "Low Tar Cigarettes").

b. Plaintiffs' "concession"

At the class certification hearing in September 2005, plaintiffs' counsel made a statement that defendant PM USA contends is a concession of the non-viability of all post-November 2002 claims. The court asked plaintiffs' counsel whether, if PM USA had made the statements now available on its website at the time it introduced "light" cigarettes in 1971, there would have been a fraud:

THE COURT: Now, is it your contention that if they had said this in '71 there would be no fraud, if they disseminated that generally?

MR. HAUSFELD: Absolutely. That is a disclosure that would have communicated to the public that there really was no health difference between a light and a regular cigarette.

Sept. 13, 2005 Hr'g Tr. at 180:16-22.

Plaintiffs contest defendant's characterization of counsel's remark. They argue that his position was (and is) that, while PM USA's disclosure would have been sufficient if made in 1971, when "light" cigarettes were first introduced, it is not sufficient now, after 30 years of deceptive marketing. See Pls.' Opp. to PM USA's Mot., at 1 ("PMUSA's purported disclosures are too little, too late. They are 'too little' because they did not serve to put customers on notice of its fraud, and they are 'too late' because they came long after PMUSA and its co-defendants had created a market for 'light' cigarettes founded on this fraud.").

2. Law

The standard for summary judgment has been set forth in Part II.A.2, supra. It is sufficient to reemphasize that summary judgment is appropriate only if there is no genuine issue as to any material fact. The moving party bears the burden of proving that it is entitled to judgment as a matter of law. Anderson v. Liberty Lobby, Inc., 477 U.S. at 248.

3. Application of Law to Facts

To prevail on their civil RICO claim, plaintiffs must establish that defendants conducted a scheme to defraud them of money or property and that smokers reasonably relied to their detriment on defendants' misrepresentations. See generally Part III, supra. The crux of plaintiffs' claim is that defendants defrauded consumers by describing certain cigarettes as "light" — implying less damage to health — without disclosing that, when smoked, they delivered no less tar or nicotine than "regular" cigarettes. See, e.g., Sept. 13, 2005 Hr'g Tr. at 192:18-22 ("Had they put nothing on the cigarette, had they not called it lights, then it might be a different story, but they chose a word which by publicly embedded expectation was synonymous with less harmful."). To prevail before trial on all claims after November 2002, PM USA must demonstrate, first, that its disclosures were so widely distributed and so clear that, as a matter of law, no scheme to defraud existed after that date or, second, that no plaintiff could have reasonably relied upon the "lights" descriptor after that date.

Critical in this analysis is context: defendant's recent representations must be viewed in light of the marketing campaigns and public statements of the previous thirty years.

a. Absence of a scheme to defraud

The cases cited by defendant in support of its contention that its recent disclosures demonstrate the absence of a scheme to defraud as a matter of law are inapt. In each of them, a court or a jury found that no misrepresentation had ever been made. See, e.g., Perlman v. Zell, 185 F.3d 850, 854 (7th Cir. 1999) (no RICO claim possible where jury found defendant had not committed fraud); Reynolds v. East Dyer Dev. Co., 882 F.2d 1249, 1251 (7th Cir. 1989) (affirming grant of summary judgment; no mail or wire fraud possible where plaintiffs had "not alleged or shown that the defendants lied to them — or anybody else"; "mere failure to disclose, absent something more" was insufficient as a matter of law); A. Terzi Prods., Inc. v. Theatrical Protective Union, 2 F. Supp. 2d 485, 500 (S.D.N.Y. 1998) (wire fraud claim could not be sustained where plaintiffs alleged "that defendants coerced plaintiffs into entering a labor agreement through threatening and abusive conduct" that "contain[ed] no element of deception whatsoever"); Smith v. Grundy County Nat. Bank, 635 F. Supp. 1071, 1076 (N.D. Ill. 1986) (RICO mail fraud complaint properly dismissed where all terms of a financial transaction were disclosed to, and approved by, plaintiffs "in advance").

Here, by contrast, plaintiffs have provided ample support for their allegations of three decades of affirmative misrepresentations and concealment. See Pls.' Cert. Brief. See also Appendix A, infra (detailed factual findings of fraud after nine month trial in federal government's suit against the tobacco industry). Whether the disclosures made after defendant's lengthy marketing campaign are sufficient to make clear the "truth" about "light" cigarettes presents several matters for jury resolution.

For example, reasonable jurors might differ as to whether the number of copies of the pamphlets and onserts were sufficient to reach a critical mass of smokers, thus "clearing the air" of any lingering misrepresentations. No evidence has been presented of the geographic breadth of distribution or the reaction of any smoker to the onsert. Similarly, PM USA has provided no evidence of the readership of the newspapers in which its pamphlets were included — were they likely to be seen, or read, by smokers of "light" cigarettes? A rational juror could also believe, as James Morgan, Brand Manager of Marlboro (including Marlboro Lights) from 1969 to 1972, has testified, that:

if you took the advertising, the point of sale, whatever may have been said on the racks or the cartons, the whole panoply of what the consumer saw about a cigarette brand would be more influential in that consumer's perception of the tar of that brand . . . than the fact that they may or may not have sat down and looked at a newspaper that had the latest Federal Trade Commission report.

United States v. Philip Morris, at ¶ 2403.

The same doubts of comprehension exist about the internet disclosures: PM USA claims that its website informed consumers about "light" cigarettes as far back as October 1999, but evidence of the content and style of the information conveyed in the old site pages has not been put before the court. See Def. PM's Mot., Ex. C (website content dated May 23, 2006). The current website contains the same information provided in the newspaper booklets and package onserts, but PM USA has offered no evidence of the number of consumers that visit its website in general or its "low tar" information pages in particular.

Plaintiff counsel's remark in arguments was not a concession that PM USA's disclosures were sufficient to absolve it of liability in 2002, but that they would have been in 1971, before defendants began their fraudulent "health assurance" marketing campaign.

b. Reasonable reliance

Since the sufficiency of PM USA's message is in dispute, it follows that PM USA's contention that plaintiffs could not establish detrimental reliance on a material misrepresentation by PM USA on or after November 2002 is premature. PM USA argues that in light of its repeated disclosures about "light" cigarettes and compensation, it would have been unreasonable as a matter of law for any consumer to have interpreted the "lights" descriptor on PM USA's cigarette packs to carry a safety message after November 2002.

PM USA cites In re OFRA Sec. Litig., 654 F. Supp. 1449, 1465 (D.N.J. 1987), to support its position that disclosure of information that allegedly was fraudulently withheld cuts off the time period during which a plaintiff could reasonably rely on the previous misrepresentation. Several barriers prevent the application of In re Ofra to this case.

First, In re Ofra was brought under the securities laws, not RICO. It is not clear that the securities fraud doctrine of "curative disclosure" applies to a case of RICO mail and wire fraud. Second, even assuming that this doctrine does apply, the disclosure in In re Ofra painted an "extremely negative portrait of the defendant's financial and development position," and the information was highly contradictory to defendant's past press releases and reports. Id. at 1464. By contrast, the disclosures PM USA provided through newspapers and on its website state:

A smoker should not assume that brand descriptors such as "light" or "ultra light" indicate with precision either the actual amount of tar and nicotine inhaled from any particular cigarette, or the relative amount as compared to competing cigarette brands. Some researchers report that smokers of "light" cigarettes inhale as much tar and nicotine as from full-flavor brands.

PM USA Mot., Ex. B at 8 (emphasis supplied). These warnings are somewhat equivocal. Reasonable jurors could disagree about their import. Cf. In re AM International Sec. Litig., 108 F.R.D 190 (S.D.N.Y. 1985) (holding that the class period could not be narrowed because substantial and triable issues of fact remained with respect to defendants' contention that the market was cured). Securities investors, a jury might find, are more likely to follow details of disclosure than lay smokers since the former are trying to protect their investments, while the latter are, in the main, following a habit embedded by addiction.

On the present record, it would be improper to remove these substantial questions of fact about the scope or time limits of the class from jury consideration. See Sirota v. Solitron Devices, Inc., 673 F.2d 566, 572 (2d Cir. 1982) (upholding judge's decision to extend securities fraud class period beyond issuance of press release that defendants claimed had cured the market). Whether a plaintiff could have reasonably relied on the implicit health claims in PM USA's marketing in the period after November 2002 is a contested issue of fact to be resolved by the jury.

c. Judicial estoppel

Judicial estoppel prevents a party from asserting a position when (1) the party argued an inconsistent position in a prior proceeding and (2) the prior inconsistent position was adopted by the court in some manner. Bates v. Long Island R.R. Co., 997 F.2d 1028, 1038 (2d Cir. 1993). "Judicial estoppel protects the sanctity of the oath and the integrity of the judicial process." Id. at 1037.

As the Supreme Court cautioned in Cleveland v. Policy Management Systems Corp., 526 U.S. 795, 199 S. Ct. 1597 (1999), a court must carefully consider the contexts in which apparently contradictory statements are made to determine if there is, in fact, direct and irreconcilable contradiction. See id. at 807 (representation of complete disability in a Social Security proceeding was not directly contradicted by party's ADA claim that he could perform essential job functions with reasonable accommodation because the former proceeding did not consider the effect that reasonable workplace accommodations would have on the claimant's ability to work).

Judicial estoppel applies equally to inconsistent positions asserted earlier in the same litigation. See Ergo Science, Inc., v. Martin, 73 F.3d 595, 598 (5th Cir. 1996); Cont'l Ill. Corp. v. Comm'r of Internal Revenue, 998 F.2d 513, 518 (7th Cir. 1993). Plaintiffs argue that PM USA's November 2002 disclosures are inconsistent with the position adopted by PM USA in response to plaintiffs' motion to preclude PM USA from arguing that "light" cigarettes are safer than regular cigarettes. See Mem. in Supp. of Pls.' Rule 16(c) Mot. (Dkt. No. 128).

Inapplicable is judicial estoppel. PM USA's statements in opposition to plaintiffs' Rule 16(c) motion do not contradict their position in support of their current motion to dismiss post-November 2002 claims. Defendant's position in its current motion is that its public disclosures were sufficient to put smokers on notice of possible risks, thus demonstrating the absence of a scheme to defraud, see supra; its position in the previous motion was that it had never conceded that "light" cigarettes were, in fact, as dangerous as regular cigarettes. See Defs.' Mem. in Opp'n to Pls.' Rule 16(c) Mot. (Docket No. 736), at 4-5 ("[T]he weight of the scientific evidence suggests that lower FTC machine-measured tar yield cigarettes may reduce the risk of certain smoking related diseases, such as lung cancer.") (quoting Def. PM USA's Resp. to Pls.' 4th Reqs. For Admissions, at No. 17). In light of this ruling it is not necessary to consider whether it would be against public policy to use as admissions attempts to warn consumers of dangers. Cf. Fed.R.Evid. 407 (prohibiting introduction of evidence of subsequent remedial measures).

d. Findings on continued increases in nicotine inhaled from "light" cigarettes

It has been recently reported that, in the period during and after the public statements that PM USA relies upon as evidence of the absence of a scheme to deceive the public, nicotine in smoke inhaled by smokers, including those using "light" cigarettes, increased significantly. See Appendix F, infra (Massachusetts Department of Health report). This increase, which might hasten or deepen addiction and make quitting more difficult, is arguably a critical fact never disclosed by any defendant. It appears to be industry-wide. A jury might find that this new information supports a conclusion of an ongoing duplicitous scheme. See Part III.E.1.b, supra (fraudulent concealment may toll statute of limitations).

4. Conclusion on Philip Morris' Separate Motion

Plaintiffs' motion for judicial estoppel is denied. Defendant PM USA's motion for summary judgment is denied. PM USA (and any other defendant) will be free to put before the jury evidence of its disclosures in support of its argument that no scheme to defraud existed after November 2002 and that plaintiffs could not have reasonably relied on any implicit health claim in the "lights" descriptor after that date.

VI. Plaintiffs' Motions for Summary Judgment

Plaintiffs move for summary judgment or, in the alternative, in limine rulings on a variety of defenses used by defendants in other similar litigation in other courts. Because granting any of these motions would prevent the jury from fairly evaluating the complex factual issues in this case, all the motions are denied.

A. FTC Defense

Claiming discovery of new evidence, plaintiffs move pursuant to Rule 60(b) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure for relief from a previous order denying their motion for summary judgment on what they describe as defendants' "FTC defense." The motion is denied. 1. Facts

a. FTC action

Pursuant to section 45(a) of title 15 of the Unite States Code, the Federal Trade Commission ("FTC") has jurisdiction over the advertising and testing of cigarettes. See 15 U.S.C. § 45(a)(2) (empowering the FTC to prevent "unfair methods of competition in or affecting commerce and unfair or deceptive acts or practices in or affecting commerce").

As described in great detail in Price v. Philip Morris, 219 Ill.2d 182, 186-208 (Ill. 2005), the FTC regulated the tobacco companies' ability to make health claims about their products in almost every decade since the 1930s through formal administrative complaints, see, e.g., Julep Tobacco Co., 27 F.T.C. 1637 (1938) (company made unsubstantiated health claims for its cigarettes); American Brands, Inc., 79 F.T.C. 255 (1971) (company claimed its cigarettes were "lower in tar" without "clearly disclosing material tar and nicotine data"); In re American Tobacco Co., 119 F.T.C. 3, 5 (1995) (company claimed consumers would "get less tar by smoking ten packs of Carlton brand cigarettes than by smoking a single pack of the other brands of cigarettes depicted in the ads"); advertising guidelines, see, e.g., 6 Trade Reg. Rep. (CCH) ¶ 39,012 (1988) (FTC Release, 1955) (requiring cigarette manufacturers making claims regarding tar and nicotine yields to substantiate their claims by "competent scientific proof"); 6 Trade Reg. Repo. (CCH) ¶ 39,012.70 (1988) (FTC Release, 1966) (permitting factual statement of milligrams of nicotine or tar, but "no collateral representation . . . as to reduction or elimination of health hazards"); 32 F.R. 11,178 (August 1, 1967) (prescribing conditions for "FTC Method" of testing, adopted as the sole acceptable method of measuring tar and nicotine); investigations, see, e.g., In re Lorillard, 92 F.T.C. 1035 (1978) (after tobacco company suggested variation in test method to prevent blocking of ventilation holes, FTC reconsidered and then adhered to its existing methods); enforcement proceedings, see, e.g., Federal Trade Comm'n v. Brown Williamson Tobacco Corp., 778 F.2d 35 (D.C. Cir. 1985) (agency sought injunction prohibiting manufacturer from advertising its Barclay cigarettes as "1 mg tar" and "99% tar free"); consent orders, see, e.g., In re American Tobacco Co., 119 F.T.C. 3 (company agreed to abandon Carlton advertising campaign that was the source of complaint described supra); In re Lorillard, 80 F.T.C. 455 (1972) (companies agreed to FTC demand that they display in advertising the health warning already required by Congress on cigarette packages); and voluntary agreements, see, e.g., FTC, Report to Congress, Dec. 31, 1970, attached to Defs.' Opp. to Pls.' Mot. on FTC Defense, Ex. 78, at 18-19 (describing approval of tobacco industry plan "to disclose tar and nicotine content in cigarette advertising on a voluntary basis"). See generally Price, 219 Ill. 2d at 186-208.

In Price, a suit under state fraud law making allegations similar to that in the present case, the Illinois Supreme Court found that consent orders issued in 1971 and 1995 restricting "use of the words 'low,' 'lower,' or 'reduced' or like qualifying terms" "specifically authorize[d] all United States tobacco companies to utilize" such terms, including "light," "so long as the descriptive terms are accompanied by a clear and conspicuous disclosure of the 'tar' and nicotine content[.]" It held that plaintiffs' suit was thus barred under a state statute immunizing defendants against consumer fraud claims based on actions "specifically authorized by law administered by any regulatory body or officer acting under statutory authority of this State or the United States." Price, 219 Ill.2d at 196, 265-66.

There is no analogous provision in RICO. Yet evidence that the FTC approved of defendants' representations might tend to disprove plaintiffs' allegations of a scheme to defraud the public. Defendants contend in this suit that the FTC, directly and indirectly, authorized descriptors such as "low tar" and "lights"; that "lights" is a synonym for "low tar"; and that the FTC, in effect, defined "low tar" by publishing the amount of tar "imbibed" by the FTC's approved smoking machine for defendants' cigarette brands.

b. Procedural history

During the first round of briefing in this litigation, plaintiffs moved pursuant to Rule 56 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure and Rule 104(a) of the Federal Rules of Evidence for an order that there was no genuine issue of material fact as to their following contentions: (1) that the Federal Trade Commission ("FTC") did not require defendants to disclose tar and nicotine levels in advertising and packaging; (2) that the FTC did not approve the "lights" descriptor; and (3) that the FTC did not define the "lights" descriptor. Alternatively, plaintiffs requested that the court preclude defendants from raising as an affirmative defense that they were acting pursuant to FTC regulation in using the "lights" descriptor or disclosing tar and nicotine information in advertising or packaging, or introducing evidence to that effect. They contended that the FTC has never taken an official position regarding the "lights" descriptor and that it has not recognized, approved of, or defined this descriptor.

Plaintiffs' motion was denied, because:

[t]he relationship of "tar" to "lights" and the history of FTC action on the subject pervades the lawsuit. The jury could not understand and decide critical issues were plaintiffs' summary judgment motion or alternative motion granted in whole or in part. Evidence bearing on the issue is capable of inferences supporting either side's views.

Mem. Order on Pls.' Mot. Re "FTC Defense" of Sept. 26, 2005 ("FTC Defense Order"), at 2.

Plaintiffs offer deposition testimony of David Beran, Marketing Director of Philip Morris, and a designated 30(b)(6) witness, in support of their motion for relief from this previous order. See Fed. R Civ. P. 30(b)(6) (when a party subpoenas a corporation, the corporation "shall designate one or more officers, directors, or managing agents, or other persons who consent to testify on its behalf . . ."). Mr. Beran was deposed after the court's ruling that further discovery was necessary to develop a record sufficient to support decision on the dispositive motions.

Emphasized by plaintiffs is the following passage of the deposition:

Q: Mr. Beran, can you identify the FTC rule which you contend regulates the product descriptors such as Lights for the sale of cigarettes?

A: No.

Q: Why not?

A: It is done, I believe, by practice, not by rule.

Q: How did it come about by practice?

A: When we came out with Marlboro Lights, Lights did not exist prior to that time. We came out with Marlboro Lights in the marketplace and over the years, the FTC could have said, no, take it off. They have not, to my knowledge.

Deposition of David Beran, Schwab v. Philip Morris, May 25, 2006 ("Beran Dep."), at 348:6-348:19.

In opposition, defendants maintain that 1) the testimony is not "new" and 2) the testimony is consistent with their position that the FTC authorized use of the "lights" descriptor.

2. Law

Plaintiffs look to the wrong source for the district court's authority to modify interlocutory orders such as this one.

Rule 60(b) provides:

On motion and upon such terms as are just, the court may relieve a party or a party's legal representative from a final judgment, order, or proceeding for the following reasons: . . . (2) newly discovered evidence which by due diligence could not have been discovered in time to move for a new trial under Rule 59(b).

. . .

Fed.R.Civ.P. 60(b). By its terms, the rule applies only to a "final judgment, order, or proceeding." A denial of summary judgment is not a final order. See United States v. 228 Acres, 916 F.2d 808, 811 (2d Cir. 1990) ("An order that denies summary judgment or grants partial summary judgment . . . is nonfinal."). Rule 60(b) is inapplicable by its terms.

Nevertheless, relief is possible. Rule 60(b) does not affect the district court's inherent power to modify its own interlocutory orders.

The addition of the qualifying word "final" emphasizes the character of the judgments, orders or proceedings from which Rule 60(b) affords relief; and hence interlocutory judgments are not brought within the restrictions of the rule, but rather they are left subject to the complete power of the court rendering them to afford such relief from them as justice requires.

Fed.R.Civ.P. 60(b) advisory committee notes (1946). See also John Simmons Co. v. Grier Bros. Co., 258 U.S. 82, 88, 42 S. Ct. 196 (1922) ("If [an order] be only interlocutory, the court at any time before final decree may modify or rescind it."); Ideal Toy Corp. v. Sayco Doll Corp., 302 F.2d 623 (2d Cir. 1962) ("Of course, absent an appeal, a district court has complete power over its interlocutory orders."); Project Strategies Corp. v. Nat'l Commc'ns Corp., No. CV-94-4925, 1995 WL 669655, at *2 (E.D.N.Y. Oct. 27, 1995) (reconsidering issuance of temporary restraining order as a matter of discretion).

3. Application of Law to Facts

Though possible, relief from the previous order denying plaintiffs' motion for summary judgment on defendants' "FTC defense" is unwarranted. The issue should be adjudicated before the jury as part of the central, common questions relating to defendants' intentions to deceive.

a. "New" evidence

Defendants' first objection — that the testimony is not "new evidence" under Rule 60(b) — is not well taken. Because Rule 60(b) does not limit the court's power to revise its interlocutory orders, the testimony's novelty is immaterial. These proceedings were referred to the magistrate judge for the purpose of completing discovery. See Order of Nov. 7, 2005, at 1 ("Full discovery is to proceed under the control of the magistrate judge, who is respectfully requested to ensure that, as speedily as practicable, all parties have a fair opportunity to gather the evidence necessary for the disposition of the pending motions on class certification and dismissal."). Additional depositions of experts and 30(b)(6) witnesses were permitted with the expectation that they would inform the decision on the dispositive motions, including those that were denied. See, e.g., Mem. Order on Stat. of Limitations, 2005 WL 2467766, at *7 (E.D.N.Y. Oct. 6, 2005) (denying defendants' motion for summary judgment; "[l]eave to renew is granted upon completion of discovery, with additional expert and other evidence on how dated knowledge is to be imputed to the class"); Mem. Order on Mutagenicity, 2005 WL 2401635, at *1 (E.D.N.Y. Sept. 27, 2005) (denying defendants' motion for summary judgment on plaintiffs' claims of mutagenicity of "light" cigarettes; "defendants' contentions on this issue will be considered with the certification motion and general motion to dismiss upon completion of discovery").

The court gives Mr. Beran's deposition testimony full consideration. It does not warrant a change in the court's ruling.

b. Defendants' stated position

Defendants' second objection is fatal to the motion. Defendants' position in this litigation has been from the start that the FTC authorized, directly or indirectly, defendants' conduct by withdrawing proposed Trade Regulation Rules ("TRRs") that would have required the disclosure of tar and nicotine yields; entering into consent decrees with the tobacco industry that permitted the use of "qualifying terms" such as "low" tar, provided those claims were substantiated by FTC measurements; investigating the use of the "lights" descriptor and deciding not to take any action; and formally defining which cigarettes could be considered "low tar." Some evidence supports this position, see supra, though a rational juror could also conclude that the FTC did not, by action or inaction, "approve" the use of the "lights" descriptor, but merely refrained from banning it when defendants acceded to some of the FTC's demands. Cf. Price, 219 Ill. 2d at 192 (quoting the chairman of the FTC's explanation for the agency's preference for self-regulation over direct intervention: "Trade regulation rules, if contested in the courts, might take a long time to become effective. A workable voluntary plan by the industry could be put into effect immediately.").

Mr. Beran's remark that the "lights" descriptor was introduced by Philip Morris and continues to be used "by practice, not by rule," is consistent with both plaintiffs' and defendants' positions. As the court indicated in its previous ruling on the topic:

The relationship of "tar" to "lights" and the history of FTC action on the subject pervades the lawsuit. The jury could not understand and decide critical issues were plaintiffs' summary judgment motion or alternative motion granted in whole or in part. Evidence bearing on the issue is capable of inferences supporting either side's views.

FTC Defense Order at 2. The deposition testimony adds to the welter of evidence on tobacco industry-FTC relations; it does not resolve it as a matter of law. Cf. Fed.R.Civ.P. 56 (summary judgment is appropriate only when the record "show[s] that there is no genuine issue as to any material fact and that the moving party is entitled to a judgment as a matter of law").

To the extent that plaintiffs expand their motion to include a request for a ruling that defendants were never "required" to use the "lights" descriptor, that request is also denied. Defendants have not contended in this litigation that the FTC mandated use of the descriptor. See, e.g., Def. Philip Morris USA Inc.'s Resp. to Pls.' Third Request for Admissions, at Request No. 13-14 (admitting that "the FTC does not mandate the use of the descriptor 'lights' for any cigarette advertising" and that "the FTC does not mandate the use of the descriptor 'lights' for any cigarette packaging"). In limine rulings are inappropriate on subjects not in controversy. 4. Conclusion on FTC Defense

Plaintiffs' motion for reconsideration of the previous order denying summary judgment is granted. The previous decision is adhered to. The interaction between the FTC and defendants is a relevant issue in the case; the jury should hear all evidence pertinent to it.

B. Compensation Defense

Plaintiffs move for summary judgment on, or in the alternative for in limine orders restricting, defendants' compensation defense. The motion and alternative motion are denied. The issues respecting compensation are central to the case and should be aired before a jury.

Compensation refers to the techniques used by smokers to increase their intake and retention of tar and nicotine in cigarettes. They can do this, among other ways, by inhaling smoke more deeply into their lungs and holding it there longer; covering up the holes in cigarette papers designed to reduce ingestion of tar; smoking more cigarettes; and smoking more of each cigarette to reduce the filtering action of the unsmoked tobacco. Whether and when smokers were aware of the effect of these techniques is strongly contested.

Plaintiffs seek immediate relief in the form of an order that there is no genuine issue of material fact as to the following: (1) that smokers did not understand the phenomenon of compensation; (2) that, inconsistent with an understanding of compensation, smokers believed that "light" cigarettes were healthier than regular cigarettes; (3) that defendants intentionally concealed information concerning compensation from smokers; (4) that defendants designed cigarettes that exploited smokers' tendency to compensate; and (5) that whether compensation is "complete" is immaterial to the viability of a fraud claim. Alternatively, plaintiffs request an order precluding defendants from introducing evidence (1) that the public was aware of the phenomenon of compensation and (2) relying on the theory that no fraud claim can exist unless compensation was "complete."

Defendants strongly urge that the compensation issue is relevant: the phenomenon was well known to smokers of "light" cigarettes, they contend, and thus there was no fraud.

Judgment as a matter of law cannot be granted on any of these issues.

(1) Plaintiffs' assertion that smokers must be deemed, as a matter of law, not to have known about compensation is based largely on defendants' internal documents. They cite, for example, a May 6, 1992 BATCo report titled, "Topics in Smoking and Health 'Bible,'" which states:

There can be no guarantee that a smoker who switches from one product to another delivering a lower 'tar' value will thereby reduce his intake of 'tar'. He may well alter the way he smokes the second product in some subtle fashion and so adjust his intake of smoke to fit his needs. In this way, he may inadvertently increase his intake of other substances in the smoke.

League tables and delivery data on products may, therefore, be misleading to the consumer, who will be unaware of the sub-conscious ways in which he manipulates his own behavior.

Bates No. 500887606-7607, Ex. 19 to Pls.' Mot. on Compensation Defense. See also R.J. Reynolds, "A Gap in Present Cigarette Product Lines and an Opportunity to Market a New Type of Product," Bates No. 500790782 ("Given a cigarette that delivers less nicotine than he desires, the smoker will subconsciously adjust his puff volume and frequency, and smoking frequency. . . ."). While such documents are highly relevant to defendants' knowledge, actions, and intent, they are not probative of actual consumer knowledge.

Defendants offer a number of sources suggesting that at least some smokers knew of compensation. See Defs.' Opp. to Pls.' Mot. on Compensation Defense, Exs. 27-47 (including Surgeon General's Reports, magazine and newspaper articles, and scientific studies published from the 1930s to the 1990s addressing compensation). Whether defendants' persistent marketing efforts overwhelmed these occasional reports is a matter for the jury.

(2) Similarly, defendants' internal marketing plans are not sufficient to remove from jury consideration the issue of consumer beliefs about the meaning of the "lights" descriptor. Documents such as the following 1977 Brown Williamson Internal Marketing Study strongly suggest that defendants intended to assuage smokers' fears of health risks:

[A]s the dynamic proportion of quitters continues to be larger than the proportion of starters, actual smoking incidence has declined about ten percentage points over the last ten years. . . . [I]ncreases in per capita consumption are assumed to correlate with lowered 'tar' delivery as well as other factors [including] HEALTH REASSURANCE: Almost all smokers agree that the primary reason for the increasing acceptance of low 'tar' brands is based on the health reassurance they seem to offer. . . . It must be assumed that Full Taste smokers come down to 'low tar' expecting less taste . . . they are willing to compromise taste expectations for health reassurance.

Bates No. 775036043-44, Pls.' Mot. on Compensation Defense, Ex. 28 (capitals in original). See also BATCo Memorandum, April 14, 1977, Bates No. 100427794, Pls. Mot. on Compensation Defense, Ex. 30 ("All work in this areas should be directed towards providing consumer reassurance about cigarettes and the smoking habit. . . . [A]dvertising for low delivery or traditional brands should be constructed . . . so as not to provoke anxiety about health, but to alleviate it. . . ."). Whether smokers in fact perceived "light" cigarettes as healthier than regular cigarettes, however, remains subject to proof and argument before the jury.

(3) There is strong evidence that defendants intentionally concealed information about compensation from smokers. See United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A at ¶¶ 3863-4035, infra. Yet at least one of the defendants has shared its research information with public health officials and governmental agencies. See id. at pp. 752-754. Critical at trial will be the timing and extent of such disclosures, since they may impact on the duration and scope of any scheme to defraud and the possibility of proper conduct by some defendants. Jury questions are presented.

(4) Plaintiffs support their motion for partial summary judgment on defendants' alleged design of cigarettes that exploited compensation subtly with internal documents describing possible products and debating company policy towards these hypothetical products. See, e.g., R.J. Reynolds interoffice memorandum of March 4, 1982, Bates No. 503670658-59 (discussing the "next generation" of cigarettes that would yield no tar under the FTC method but 20-40 mg of tar when smoked by a human; proposing "to provide design sketches or prototypes"). While discomfiting to defendants, these, too, are insufficient facts justifying judgment as a matter of law that such products were actually produced and marketed.

(5) Plaintiffs' assertion that the completeness of compensation is irrelevant to the fraud claims assumes key facts at issue. A necessary antecedent to plaintiffs' proof of misrepresentation is proof of what was represented: were smokers promised a healthier cigarette, a cigarette that delivered less tar and nicotine when smoked, or merely a cigarette that, by an FTC-defined methodology, contained a stated number of milligrams of these substances? Only after the jury decides upon the content of the implicit and explicit promises conveyed by defendants' marketing can it decide whether the promises were kept. Evidence of the completeness of compensation is pertinent to this latter determination.

(6) Plaintiffs opposed defendants' view, expressed at the September 13, 2006 hearing, that only compensation that exists with respect to an individual cigarette can form the basis of an injury — that is to say, if smoking a single "light" did not satisfy a smoker's need for nicotine, and he picked up a second or third cigarette to make up the deficiency, ingesting more tar than he would have from a single regular cigarette, the smoker would have been on notice of the change and there could be no fraud. Tr. of Sept. 13, 2006 at 124:24-125:17. Defendants appear to have known that nicotine's addictive properties might lead to compensation by smokers covering up ventilation holes to inhale more smoke, holding the smoke in the lungs longer and deeper, smoking more of any one cigarette, and smoking a greater number of cigarettes. All these techniques were used to compensate for the lower nicotine content of "light" cigarettes — and in the process, exposed smokers to levels of tar greater than or equal to that released by regular cigarettes. Defendants' per-cigarette argument is one the jury may, but is not required to, consider in connection with compensation.

The motions are denied.

C. Compliance with Public Health Community Defense

Plaintiffs seek an order that there is no genuine issue of material fact as to the following: that the defendants did not act in compliance with the directives of the public health community in designing, manufacturing and marketing defendants' "low tar" products. Alternatively, plaintiffs request that the court preclude defendants from introducing evidence to contradict that allegation. It is their contention that defendants' claim of compliance with the public health community's views is contradicted by their failure to adhere to the public health community's desires with respect to "low tar" or "light" cigarettes.

Defendants contend that they acted in compliance with the public health community's recommendations in developing a Federal Trade Commission-measured low tar and low nicotine cigarette and that they did not withhold relevant information regarding health issues from the FTC or the public health community. Defendant Liggett Group, Inc. opposes on the ground that plaintiffs' motions are particularly misplaced with respect to Liggett, which has been more forthcoming about smoking health issues than other defendants.

The evidence of the relationship among defendants, plaintiffs, various components of the health community, and governmental agencies on smoking health issues is extraordinarily extensive and covers many years. Compare United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A at ¶¶ 2346-2376, infra (finding defendants misled governmental agencies and public health officials) with Defs.' Mem. in Opp. to Pls.' Mot. on Public Health Defense, Exs. 3-8 (various plaintiff and defense experts testifying that a number of public health organizations recommended that smokers who could not quit smoke lower tar cigarettes between 1950s and 1990s). It is pertinent to defendants' intent and plaintiffs' reliance to determine whose statements smokers were relying on when they chose "light" cigarettes. If they relied in part on messages from the public health community and governmental agencies, to what extent those messages were tainted by defendants' alleged fraud is a jury question.

The motion is denied.

D. Meaning of "Lights" Descriptor

Plaintiffs seek an order that there is no genuine issue of material fact as to the following: that the defendants never intended the "light" or "lights" descriptor to refer to taste. Alternatively, plaintiffs request that the court preclude defendants from introducing evidence that the meaning of the "light" or "lights" descriptor was primarily a reference to the taste of defendants' products. Their contention is that the word "lights" was intended to convey to the smoker that "light" cigarettes were not as harmful to health as "regular" cigarettes.

Defendants' view is that the evidence demonstrates that they intended "lights" to refer to a lighter-tasting cigarette and that many consumers understood this.

For the reasons set out in Part VI.B, supra, the issue of smokers' beliefs cannot be resolved on summary judgment. Evidence of consumers' perceptions of the meaning of the "lights" descriptor is necessary to prove or controvert their reliance on defendants' representations and will be received. See also the discussion of collateral estoppel in Part IV, supra.

The motion is denied.

VII. Plaintiffs' Motion for Class Certification

Critical to plaintiffs' case is certification as a class action. No other method of aggregation of tens of millions of smokers' claims is practicable. The small amount of possible recovery for each smoker could not justify the expensive and time-consuming pretrial and trial procedures required. As indicated below, an analysis of the facts and law supports certification over defendants' objections.

A. Class Certification Under Rule 23

In order to certify a class action, Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure requires plaintiffs to meet two major requirements. First, they must satisfy all four of the conditions of Rule 23(a) and, second, they must demonstrate that their action fits within one of the three categories of Rule 23(b). Amchem Prods., Inc. v. Windsor, 521 U.S. 591, 614, 117 S. Ct. 2231; (1997); In re Visa Check/MasterMoney Antitrust Litig., 280 F.3d 124, 132-133 (2d Cir. 2001).

1. Burden of Proof

Plaintiffs bear the burden of proof in showing that these requirements have been met. Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 614; Caridad v. Metro-North Commuter R.R., 191 F.3d 283, 291 (2d Cir. 1999). The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit still apparently holds that they need not show that they are likely to prevail on the merits of their claim at this stage in the litigation. Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 417 U.S. 156, 178, 94 S. Ct. 2140 (1974) (internal citation and quotation marks omitted) ("In determining the propriety of a class action, the question is not whether the plaintiff or plaintiffs have stated a cause of action or will prevail on the merits, but rather whether the requirements of Rule 23 have been met."). See also Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 135 (a motion for class certification is not an occasion for examination of the merits of the case); Caridad, 191 F.3d at 293 (courts should not "consider or resolve the merits of the claims of the purported class."). Yet conservation of court resources requires that plaintiffs demonstrate that they have a reasonable chance of success before the costs attendant on certification are shouldered by the litigants.

A "rigorous analysis" is required to determine that the Rule 23 requirements have been met. See Gen. Tele. Co. of Southwest v. Falcon, 457 U.S. 147, 161, 102 S. Ct. 2364 (1982); In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. 65, 93 (S.D.N.Y. 2004) ("In sum, under the binding caselaw in this Circuit, a district court may not simply accept the allegations of plaintiffs' complaint as true. Rather, it must determine, after a 'rigorous analysis,' whether the proposed class comports with all of the elements of Rule 23. In order to pass muster, plaintiffs — who have the burden of proof at class certification — must make 'some showing.' That showing may take the form of, for example, expert opinions, evidence (by document, affidavit, live testimony, or otherwise), or the uncontested allegations of the complaint.").

"Evaluation of many of the questions entering into determination of class action questions is intimately involved with the merits of the claims," In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. at 91, and sometimes requires the court to "look past the pleadings" and consider evidence relevant to class certification even if that evidence is also related to the merits of the case. Castano v. American Tobacco Company, 84 F.3d 734, 744 (5th Cir. 1996). "Both the Supreme Court and the Second Circuit, however, have suggested that requiring a plaintiff to establish the elements of Rule 23 — especially when those elements are 'enmeshed' in the merits — by a preponderance of the evidence would work an injustice." In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. at 92. For example, when considering expert evidence in a class certification motion, the court "must ensure that the basis of the expert opinion is not so flawed that it would be inadmissible as a matter of law," but should not consider decisive "whether the evidence will ultimately be persuasive." Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 135. Expert evidence thus far presented meets this test. See Part VIII.F.1, infra.

The Supreme Court has recognized that many of the Rule 23(a) and (b) requirements are not distinct from one another, but rather "merge" when considered in light of the overall purposes of Rule 23. Falcon, 457 U.S. at 158 n. 13 (1982). See also Marisol A. v. Giuliani, 126 F.3d 372, 376 (2d Cir. 1997). Ultimately, courts have broad discretion in determining whether to certify a class and are encouraged to construe the requirements of Rule 23 liberally in order to effectuate its overall purpose. See, e.g., Baffa v. Donaldson, Lufkin Jenrette Sec. Corp., 222 F.3d 52 (2d Cir. 2000); Gary Plastic Packaging Corp. v. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner Smith, Inc., 903 F.2d 176, 179 (2d Cir. 1990); Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555, 563 (2d Cir. 1968).

2. Purpose of Rule 23

In interpreting Rule 23, the Second Circuit Court of Appeals has explained that central to its ameliorative purpose is protection of small claims through aggregation.

Class actions serve an important function in our judicial system. By establishing a technique whereby the claims of many individuals can be resolved at the same time, the class suit both eliminates the possibility of repetitious litigation and provides small claimants with a method of obtaining redress for claims which would otherwise be too small to warrant individual litigation.

. . . .

[T]he Advisory Committee on the Rules of Civil Procedure completely redrafted Rule 23 in order to provide a thoroughly flexible remedy. Throughout the course of a proceeding courts are given complete control to give assurance that the procedures adopted are fair, reasonable and effective. All actions will result in judgments binding on the entire group of individuals found by the court to be members of the class.

Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555, 560 (2d Cir. 1968).

Use of class actions to vindicate the rights of, and provide remedies for, small claimants who might otherwise not be able to utilize the judicial system is favored. See Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 617 ("The policy at the very core of the class action mechanism is to overcome the problem that small recoveries do not provide the incentive for any individual to bring a solo action prosecuting his or her rights. A class action solves this problem by aggregating the relatively paltry potential recoveries into something worth someone's (usually an attorney's) labor.") (internal quotation marks omitted).

The Supreme Court recognized that protecting small claims was especially important in class actions certified under Rule 23(b)(3), for which "the Advisory Committee had dominantly in mind vindication of the rights of groups of people who individually would be without effective strength to bring their opponents into court at all." Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 617 (internal quotation marks omitted). See also Eisen v. Carlisle and Jacquelin, 417 U.S. at 186, 186 n. 8 (Douglas, J., joined by Brennan, J. and Marshall, J., concurring) ("The class action is one of the few legal remedies the small claimant has against those who command the status quo. . . . The matter touches on the issue of the credibility of our judicial system. Either we are committed to make reasonable efforts to provide a forum for adjudication of disputes involving all our citizens — including those deprived of human rights, consumers who overpay for products because of antitrust violations and investors who are victimized by insider trading or misleading information — or we are not. There are those who will not ignore the irony of courts ready to imprison a man who steals some goods in interstate commerce while unwilling to grant a civil remedy against the corporation which has benefited, to the extent of many millions of dollars, from collusive, illegal pricing of its goods to the public. . . . When the organization of a modern society, such as ours, affords the possibility of illegal behavior accompanied by widespread, diffuse consequences, some procedural means must exist to remedy — or at least to deter — that conduct.") (internal citation and quotation marks omitted).

Congress in effect approved the class action format as a means of promoting litigation efficiency by consolidating a large number of small claims into a single convenient forum, preventing both the courts and the parties from being forced to litigate the same issues multiple times. See Gen. Tel. Co. of Southwest v. Falcon, 457 U.S. at 155 (explaining that "the class-action device saves the resources of both the courts and the parties by permitting an issue potentially affecting every [class member] to be litigated in an economical fashion under Rule 23"); American Pipe Constr. Co. v. Utah, 414 U.S. 538, 552-53, 94 S.Ct. 756, 38 L.Ed.2d 713 (1974) (efficiency and economy are primary purposes of the class action procedure). Recently, Congress has reaffirmed its confidence in federal class actions by providing for the federalization of much national class action litigation formerly conducted in state court. See Class Action Fairness Act ("CAFA"), Pub.L. 109-2, 119 Stat. 4 (2005); Exxon Mobil Corp. v. Allapattah Services, Inc., 545 U.S. 546, 125 S. Ct. 2611, 2627 (2005) ("Subject to certain limitations, the CAFA confers federal diversity jurisdiction over class actions where the aggregate amount in controversy exceeds $5 million.").

Although Rule 23 was designed to promote judicial efficiency and help vindicate the rights of small claimants, it does not sacrifice the due process rights of absent class members who would be bound by the adjudication despite their lack of active participation. Many of the requirements of Rule 23, as well as the discretion granted district courts in administering the proceedings, are designed to ensure that absent class members are aware of, and adequately represented in, the litigation. These over-arching purposes cause many of Rule 23's requirements to run together. Falcon, 457 U.S. at 158 n. 13. Judge Schiendlin of the Southern District of New York observed:

All of these requirements are aimed at answering two questions: Can the claims be managed as class actions, and should they be managed as class actions? In this regard, the term "claims" encompasses not only plaintiffs' claims, but also any affirmative defenses that defendants may assert. Courts must therefore exercise their judgment to further Rule 23's goals of promoting judicial economy and providing aggrieved persons a remedy when it is not economically feasible to obtain relief through multiple individual actions. The Second Circuit requires a "liberal" construction of Rule 23. Thus, to deny a class action simply because all of the allegations of the class do not fit together like pieces in a jigsaw puzzle would destroy much of the utility of Rule 23.

In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. 65, 89-90 (S.D.N.Y. 2004) (emphasis in original) (internal citations and quotation marks omitted).

As already noted, Rule 23 does not mandate that each requirement have a separate and distinct sphere of operation, since rigid compartmentalization may divert the court from a proper application of the rule as a whole. See, e.g., Baffa v. Donaldson, Lufkin Jenrette Sec. Corp., 222 F.3d 52, 61 (2d Cir. 2000) (applying the adequacy-of-representation requirement with an eye for typicality concerns and disavowing an overly-technical or "myopic" view of Rule 23(a)(4)'s requirements); Robinson v. Metro-North Commuter R.R. Co., 267 F.3d 147, 163-167 (2d Cir. 2001) (adopting an ad hoc discretionary approach to Rule 23(b)(2), rather than a strict bright-line standard, in order to effectuate the purposes and fairness of the rule). It is for this reason that the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has repeatedly advised district courts to interpret Rule 23 liberally to effectuate its purpose. See Korn v. Franchard Corp., 456 F.2d 1206, 1209 (2d Cir. 1972); Green v. Wolf Corp., 406 F.2d 291, 298 (2d Cir. 1968); In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. at 89-90; In re Lloyd's Am. Trust Fund Litig., No. 96-Civ-1262, 1998 WL 50211, at *5 (S.D.N.Y. Feb. 6, 1998) ("The Second Circuit has directed district courts to apply Rule 23 according to a liberal rather than a restrictive interpretation."); McNeill v. New York City Hous. Auth., 719 F. Supp. 233, 252 (S.D.N.Y. 1989) ("Rule 23 is given liberal rather than restrictive construction, and courts are to adopt a 'standard of flexibility in application' so that it may best serve the ends of justice and promote judicial economy in a given case.").

B. Rule 23(a) Prerequisites

Rule 23(a) provides four threshold criteria which must be met in order for a class to be certified:

(1) the class is so numerous that joinder of all members is impracticable;

(2) there are questions of law or fact common to the class;

(3) the claims or defenses of the representative parties are typical of the claims or defenses of the class; and

(4) the representative parties will fairly and adequately protect the interests of the class.

Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(a). These requirements are generally referred to as numerosity, commonality, typicality, and adequacy of representation. See Gen. Tel. Co. v. EEOC, 446 U.S. 318, 330, 100 S. Ct. 1698 (1980).

1. Numerosity

a. Law

The numerosity clause of Rule 23(a)(1) requires the prospective class be so numerous that joinder is "impracticable." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(a)(1). "Impracticability does not mean impossibility of joinder, but refers to the difficulty or inconvenience of joinder." In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. at 86. See also Robidoux v. Celani, 987 F.2d 931, 935 (2d Cir. 1993). The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has held that a prospective class of forty or more raises a presumption of numerosity. See Consol. Rail Corp. v. Hyde Park, 47 F.3d 473, 483 (2d Cir. 1995); Cromer Fin. Ltd. v. Berger, 205 F.R.D. 113 (S.D.N.Y. 2001). Plaintiffs need not establish the precise number of class members in order to satisfy the numerosity requirement, as long as they reasonably estimate the number as substantial. See Robidoux, 987 F.2d at 935; McNeill v. New York City Hous. Auth., 719 F. Supp. 233, 252 (S.D.N.Y. 1989). They may "rely on reasonable inferences drawn from the available facts" in order to make that approximation. McNeill, 719 F. Supp. at 252. See also Port Auth. Police Benevolent Ass'n v. Port Auth., 698 F.2d 150 (2d Cir. 1983); Kirkland v. New York State Dep't of Corr. Servs., 520 F.2d 420, 427 (2d Cir. 1975); Dura-Bilt Corp. v. Chase Manhattan Corp., 89 F.R.D. 87, 93 (S.D.N.Y. 1981). Important are "judicial economy arising from the avoidance of a multiplicity of actions, geographic dispersion of class members, financial resources of class members, the ability of claimants to institute individual suits, and requests for prospective injunctive relief which would involve future class members." Robidoux, 987 F.2d at 936.

b. Application of law to facts

Plaintiffs have shown that the instant class is so numerous that joinder is impracticable, thus satisfying Rule 23(a)(1). Though plaintiffs do not know the exact size of the class, it is reasonably believed to number in the tens of millions. The class members are widely-dispersed, being resident in all fifty states.

2. Commonality

a. Law

The commonality requirement of Rule 23 necessitates a showing that the prospective class members share common questions of law or fact. Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(a)(2). This requirement is satisfied where the "claims of all proposed class members derive from the same policies and procedures, and are based on the same legal theories." McNeill, 719 F. Supp. 233, 252 (S.D.N.Y. 1989). It is not necessary that " all questions of law or fact raised be common." D'Alauro v. GC Servs. Ltd., 168 F.R.D. 451, 455-456 (E.D.N.Y. 1996) (emphasis in original). See also Forbush v. J.C. Penney Co., 994 F.2d 1101 (5th Cir. 1993); Cox v. American Cast Iron Pipe Co., 784 F.2d 1546, 1557 (11th Cir. 1986); Berwecky v. Bear, Stearns Co., 197 F.R.D. 65, 68 (S.D.N.Y. 2000); Dura-Bilt Corp. v. Chase Manhattan Corp., 89 F.R.D. at 93; 1 Herbert Newberg Alba Conte, Newberg on Class Actions § 3:10 (4th ed. 2002). "The critical inquiry is whether the common questions are at the 'core' of the cause of action alleged." D'Alauro, 168 F.R.D. at 456.

One method of showing factual commonality is to allege a "common course of conduct" which will necessarily involve questions of law or fact common to the class. Harris v. Palm Springs Alpine Estates, Inc., 329 F.2d 909, 914 (9th Cir. 1964). See also Marisol A. v. Giuliani, 126 F.3d 372, 377 (2d Cir. 1997); Korn v. Franchard Corp., 456 F.2d 1206, 1213 (2d Cir. 1972); In re WorldCom, Inc. Secs. Litig., 219 F.R.D. 267, 280 (S.D.N.Y. 2003).

The overwhelming weight of authority holds that repeated misrepresentations . . . satisfy the 'common question' requirement. Confronted with a class of purchasers allegedly defrauded over a period of time by similar misrepresentations, courts have taken the common sense approach that the class is united by a common interest in determining whether a defendant's course of conduct is in its broad outlines actionable, which is not defeated by slight differences in class members' positions, and that the issue may profitably be tried in one suit.

Blackie v. Barrack, 524 F.2d 891 (9th Cir. 1975) (citing Green, 460 F.2d at 298). See also In re Baldwin-United Corp. Litig., 122 F.R.D. 424, 426 (S.D.N.Y. 1986) ("The nub of plaintiffs' claims is that material information was withheld from the entire putative class in each action, either by written or oral communication. Essentially, this is a course of conduct case, which as pled satisfies the commonality requirement of Rule 23."); In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. at 87 ("In general, where putative class members have been injured by similar material misrepresentations and omissions, the commonality requirement is satisfied."). These decisions are consistent with the view of the Advisory Committee on the 1966 Amendments to Rule 23 that "a fraud perpetrated on numerous persons by the use of similar misrepresentations may be an appealing situation for a class action, and it may remain so despite the need, if liability is found, for separate determination of the damages suffered by individuals within the class." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3) advisory committee notes (1966).

Allegations of a conspiracy implicating purposeful conduct by a defendant may establish liability through common legal and factual questions about the existence, scope, and effect of the alleged conspiracy. See Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555 (2d Cir. 1968); In re Playmobil Antitrust Litig., 35 F. Supp. 2d 231 (E.D.N.Y. 1998).

The commonality requirement should not be confused with the predominance requirement of Rule 23(b)(3), described infra, sometimes a "more demanding" standard. Moore v. Paine Webber, Inc., 306 F.3d 1247, 1252 (2d Cir. 2002). While subsection (b)(3) requires the court to weigh common issues against individual issues in deciding which predominate, commonality only requires that common issues of law or fact exist:

[I]t is for the predominance and other requirements of Rule 23(b)(3), rather than the common question requirement, to function to keep the balance between the economies attained and lost by allowing a class action. The common question requirement should not be restrictively interpreted to attain that objective, particularly as to do so would eliminate the class action deterrent for those who engage in complicated and imaginative rather than straightforward schemes. . . .

Blackie, 524 F.2d at 904 n. 19. See also Moore, 306 F.3d at 1252; Korn, 456 F.2d at 1210 (holding that commonality was satisfied, regardless of whether reliance on alleged misrepresentations constituted a common question, and if not, whether it predominated); Schaefer v. Overland Express Family of Funds, 169 F.R.D. 124, 128 (S.D. Cal. 1996) (finding that issues of "individual reliance could vary without destroying the commonality").

b. Application of law to facts

The common issues concerning the liability of the defendants that are presented in this action are substantial and satisfy the requirement of Rule 23(a)(2). Plaintiffs allege both a common course of conduct: the deliberate misleading of the public concerning the relative health risks of "light" cigarettes through significant and widespread advertising campaigns; and a conspiracy: the collusion between the various defendant companies in perpetrating this alleged fraud through many predicate acts committed by all of them. These allegations would comprise the source of defendants' liability under RICO and would be established by the same facts and evidence for each plaintiff, i.e., by generalized proof of marketing and knowledge of defendants. More specifically, plaintiffs have alleged a list of common questions of law and fact, including:

(a) Whether defendants were members of an enterprise;

(b) Whether defendants participated and conducted the affairs of the enterprise through a pattern of mail and wire fraud;

(c) Whether defendants conspired to mislead the public about the relative risk of "light" cigarettes as compared to regular cigarettes;

(d) Whether defendants knew that "light" cigarettes were not appreciably less harmful than their regular cigarette counterparts;

(e) Whether defendants intentionally designed "light" cigarettes to enable smokers to compensate;

(f) Whether defendants misleadingly portrayed "light" cigarettes as less harmful than their regular cigarette counterparts;

(g) Whether defendants' implication that "light" cigarettes were less harmful than regular cigarettes was intended to induce consumers to purchase "light" cigarettes; and

(h) Whether the class has been damaged by paying more for a cigarette they were led to believe was relatively safe than the cigarette would have been worth if there had been no fraud and if so the extent of the damages to which the class is entitled.

Were plaintiffs' claims to be pursued individually, these questions could be re-litigated possibly millions of times, requiring an incredibly wasteful expenditure of time, effort, and resources by both the court and the various parties, probably resulting in inconsistent outcomes. In light of the relatively small value of individual claims, none of the members of the class individually has the wherewithal or interest to conduct individual litigation against these defendants. For example, an individual one-pack-a-day smoker over a ten year period would have smoked some 3500 packs of cigarettes. Assuming a difference in value of ten cents between what he or she was induced to think was bought — a relatively safe cigarette — and the dangerous cigarette actually bought, the total economic loss of such a member of the class would be only $350.00. Yet, since there were tens of millions of smokers of light cigarettes, total class damages could be in the tens of billions, with trebled damages of more than a hundred billion possible. Class actions are specifically designed to deal with this kind of problem. 3. Typicality

a. Law

Claims or defenses of the representative party or parties are required to be typical of those of the prospective class. Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(a)(3). This requirement tends to "merge" with the commonality requirement, since both "serve as guideposts for determining whether under the particular circumstances maintenance of a class action is economical and whether the named plaintiff's claim and the class claims are so interrelated that the interests of the class members will be fairly and adequately protected in their absence." Falcon, 457 U.S. at 158 n. 13. See also MarisolA. v. Giuliani, 126 F.3d 372, 376 (2d Cir. 1997). Typicality "does not require that the factual background of each named plaintiff's claim be identical to that of all class members" but rather that "the disputed issue of law or fact occupy essentially the same degree of centrality to the named plaintiff's claim as to that of other members of the proposed class." Caridad, 191 F.3d at 291 (internal citation and quotation marks omitted). See also McNeill, 719 F. Supp. at 252; Dura-Bilt, 89 F.R.D. at 99 n. 12. Like commonality, the typicality requirement is satisfied "if the claims of the named plaintiffs arise from the same practice or course of conduct that gives rise to the claims of the proposed class members. . . ." Marisol A., 929 F. Supp. at 691. See also Robinson v. Metro-North Commuter R.R. Co., 267 F.3d 147, 155 (2d Cir. 2001).

i. Unique defenses

Typicality may be satisfied despite some disparity in the facts, defenses, or damage calculations of the representative plaintiffs and the rest of the class. See Robidoux, 987 F.2d at 937. Disparities that create unique defenses to some members of the putative class may make class certification inappropriate if they are likely to significantly divert the focus of the class litigation. See Gary Plastic Packaging Corp. v. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner Smith, Inc., 903 F.2d 176, 180 (2d Cir. 1990). Because the concern is with the "danger that absent class members will suffer if their representative is preoccupied with defenses unique to it[,]" this inquiry may be framed as an impediment to either typicality or adequacy-of-representation. Id. Under either framework, the test is "whether the defenses will become the focus of the litigation, overshadowing the primary claims and prejudicing other class members." In re Initial Pub. Offering Sec. Litig., 227 F.R.D. 65, 87 (S.D.N.Y. 2004). The unique defense must be serious and likely to sidetrack the litigation to the detriment of the entire class in order to defeat typicality. See, e.g., Langner v. Brown, No. 95-Civ-1981, 1996 WL 709757 (S.D.N.Y. Dec. 10, 1996) (certifying a major shareholder and former insider as the class representative even though he might be subject to some unique defenses); Kronfeld v. Trans World Airlines, Inc., 104 F.R.D. 50, 53 (S.D.N.Y. 1984) (finding that a representative's reliance on a third party to purchase stock at issue did not create a unique defense making him an inadequate representative for those class members who purchased the stock directly); In re Control Data Corp. Secs. Litig., 116 F.R.D. 216 (D.C. Minn. 1986) (finding that variations in reliance did not raise unique defenses that would preclude typicality).

ii. Subclasses

Where the disparity among claims and defenses is substantial, subclassing may permit the class action to go forward. See Marisol A. v. Giuliani, 126 F.3d 372, 378 (2d Cir. 1997) (affirming order of class certification but remanding for the district court to consider creating additional subclasses to reflect groups of plaintiff children with "separate and discrete legal claims pursuant to particular federal and state constitutional, statutory, and regulatory obligations of the defendants"). Subclassing should not be resorted to unless it serves a necessary purpose since it adds to the cost and complexity of a class action.

b. Application of law to facts

The claims of the proposed plaintiffs are typical of those of the class when evaluated under the Rule 23(a)(3) standard. Typicality requires that a class representative "have the incentive to prove all the elements of the cause of action which would be presented by the individual members of the class were they initiating individualized actions." In re NASDAQ Market-Makers Antitrust Litig., 172 F.R.D. 119, 126 (S.D.N.Y. 1997). Though the specific factual circumstances for the proposed plaintiffs may not be identical to those of everyone in the million-plus member putative class, a virtually impossible condition, they share the common traits that define the class: arguably, they purchased "light" cigarettes under the reasonable belief in defendants' knowingly false representations that they were a safer alternative to regular cigarettes which would deliver less tar and nicotine.

Unfounded is defendants' objection to the aggregation of the many brands of "light" cigarettes into one suit. Plaintiffs' expert reports appear to show sufficiently that the marketing of all "light" cigarettes was characterized by certain common advertising techniques including, but not limited to, the use of the "lights" descriptor. See, e.g., Expert Report of Richard Pollay, Part VIII.F.1.m; Monograph 13, Chapter 7, in Appendix E, infra. Defendants' argument that class treatment is inappropriate because the marketing campaigns varied too widely to demonstrate a common scheme assumes what it seeks to prove.

Members of the class make identical legal and factual assertions regarding defendants' conduct concerning the alleged collusion and conspiracy, the basis of their liability for mail and wire fraud. To recover for themselves, proposed plaintiffs would need to prove the same "common questions" that would entitle the entire class to relief. Proposed plaintiffs allege the same type of injury from defendants' alleged conduct: that they were fraudulently induced to purchase defendants' "light" cigarettes. Whether that injury suffices for recovery under RICO should be decided by the jury on its merits, with the same consequences for both the proposed representative plaintiffs and the absent class members. There is sufficient typicality to induce the proposed plaintiffs to adequately represent the interests of absent class members in this litigation. No basis for subclassing has been shown as to plaintiffs or as to defendants. The conduct on both sides cannot, at this stage of the litigation, be said to differ among the parties on any appropriate method of classification. 4. Adequacy of Representation

a. Law

Rule 23(a)(4) requires that the representative parties will fairly and adequately protect the interests of the prospective class. Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(a)(4). The Advisory Committee for the 1966 Amendments and the courts have expressed particular concern regarding adequacy of representation because any judgment conclusively determines the rights of absent class members. See, e.g., Eisen v. Carlisle and Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555, 562 (2d Cir. 1968) (citing Hansberry v. Lee, 311 U.S. 32, 61 S. Ct. 115 (1940), for the premise that fundamental due process prevents a decision from binding class members if their interests were not adequately represented). The adequacy-of-representation requirement tends to "merge" with the commonality and typicality requirements; commonality and typicality of the claims ensure that as class representatives advance their own interests, they will also advance the interests of the absent class members, serving as adequate representation. Falcon, 457 U.S. at 158 n. 13. See also McNeill, 719 F. Supp. at 252 (citing Dura-Bilt Corp., 89 F.R.D. at 93).

"The question of whether the named plaintiffs can fairly and adequately represent the class is one 'committed to the sound discretion of the district court.'" County of Suffolk v. Long Island Lighting Co., 710 F. Supp. 1407, 1413 (E.D.N.Y. 1989), aff'd, 907 F.2d 1295 (1990) (quoting Malchman v. Davis, 761 F.2d 893, 899 (2d Cir. 1985)). To determine that representation is adequate, a plaintiff must meet two basic standards: class representatives and members must not have interests antagonistic to one another; and counsel for the prospective class must be qualified, experienced, and generally able to conduct the litigation. See In re Joint Eastern Southern Dist. Asbestos Litig., 78 F.3d 764, 778 (2d Cir. 1996) (citing In re Drexel Burnham Lambert Group, Inc., 960 F.2d 285, 291 (2d Cir. 1992)); Eisen v. Carlisle and Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555, 562 (2d Cir. 1968). Other factors that have been considered in determining the adequacy of a proposed representative include the putative plaintiffs' "knowledge of the case" and "credibility." In re Joint E. and S. Dist. Asbestos Litig., 78 F.3d 764, 778 (2d Cir. 1996).

i. Class counsel

Class counsel must be "qualified, experienced, and generally able to conduct the litigation." See id. (citing In re Drexel Burnham Lambert Group, Inc., 960 F.2d at 291; Eisen, 391 F.2d at 562).

When courts review the adequacy of counsel under Rule 23(a)(4), they generally inquire whether the counsel is willing and able to vigorously prosecute the action. Rule 23(a)(4) is satisfied where the class attorneys are experienced in the field or have demonstrated professional competence in other ways, such as by the quality of the briefs and the arguments during the early stages of the case. See, e.g., Klein v. A.G. Becker Paribas Inc., 109 F.R.D. 646 (S.D.N.Y. 1986); Bacon v. Toia, 437 F. Supp. 1371 (S.D.N.Y. 1977). See generally 7A Charles Alan Wright Arthur R. Miller, Federal Practice Procedure § 1769.1 (3d ed. 2005). Counsel may be deemed inadequate if they have little experience, have done inadequate work up until the decision on certification, or demonstrate a conflict of interest with some members of the class. See, e.g., Carson v. Giant Food, Inc., 187 F. Supp. 2d 462 (D.C. Md. 2002); Dietrich v. Bauer, 192 F.R.D. 119 (S.D.N.Y. 2000); In re Joint E. So. Dist. Asbestos Litig., 133 F.R.D. 425 (E.D.N.Y. 1990). See also Wright Miller § 1769.1 ("It is important to note that mere allegations that the class attorney is inexperienced or incompetent will not suffice to demonstrate inadequacy if other evidence suggests that the attorney is competent" and "the fact that the counsel is engaged in multiple parallel or overlapping class suits does not, standing alone, establish a conflict.").

Congress expressly acknowledged the importance of adequate class counsel in the 2003 amendments to the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure by adding a new section devoted to the appointment of class counsel. See Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(g); Noble v. 93 University Place Corp., 224 F.R.D. 330, 339 n. 74 (S.D.N.Y. 2004) ("As noted in the Advisory Committee's Notes to the 2003 Amendments, 'Rule 23(a)(4) will continue to call for scrutiny of the proposed class representative, while [Rule 23(g)] will guide the court in assessing proposed class counsel as part of the certification decision.' Thus, adequacy of class counsel is now properly considered under Rule 23(g), rather than Rule 23(a)(4)."). Rule 23(g) requires a court to assess the adequacy of proposed class counsel. The court should consider: (1) the work counsel has done in identifying or investigating potential claims in the action; (2) counsel's experience in handling class actions, other complex litigation, and claims of the type asserted in the action; (3) counsel's knowledge of the applicable law; and (4) the resources counsel will commit to representing the class, as well as any other matter relevant to counsel's ability to represent the interests of the class. See Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(g)(1)(C)(I); Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(g)(1)(C)(II). See also Noble, 224 F.R.D. at 339-40 (citing Rule 23(g)(1)(C)(I)). The court has "broad authority in making these appointments." Wright Miller § 1802.3.

ii. Class representatives lacking interests antagonistic to class

In order to adequately represent absent class members, representative plaintiffs must not have interests that are antagonistic to or in conflict with those of the class as a whole. Just as claims need not be identical for plaintiffs to meet the typicality requirement, some variation in factual claims will not necessarily create an antagonism between the interests of the representative plaintiffs and the class: the conflict with the class must be significant and fundamental in order to defeat the adequacy-of-representation requirement. See Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 145 ("The conflict that will prevent a plaintiff from meeting the Rule 23(a)(4) prerequisite must be fundamental" and "speculative conflict should be disregarded at the class certification stage.") (internal quotation marks omitted); In re Joint E. and S. Dist. Asbestos Litig., 78 F.3d 764 (2d Cir. 1996) (finding that differences in treatment of pro rata and apportionment health claimants did not create sufficient antagonism between those categories of plaintiffs to defeat adequacy-of-representation requirement); Morris v. Wachovia Secs., Inc., 223 F.R.D. 284, 299 (E.D. Va. 2004) ("Because the conflict of interests over appropriate relief in this case is fundamental, it defeats the adequacy of representation requirement").

Variations in distribution of damages to different members of the class generally does not create a fundamental antagonism between plaintiffs. See Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 145 ("In the event that the district court does find conflicts[,] . . . there are a variety of devices available to resolve the problem. . . . [including] the possibilities of bifurcating liability and damage trials, decertifying the class after the liability trial, and creating subclasses."); 1 Herbert Newberg Alba Conte, Newberg on Class Actions § 3:32 (4th ed. 2002) ("In some cases, all class members will have a common interest in prevailing on the liability issue but may have competing interests in distributing the monetary relief. Such a conflict should not preclude class litigation, particularly because the court may subsequently create subclasses along the lines of conflicting interests. . . . The Notes of the Rules Advisory Committee state: 'Where a class is found to include subclasses divergent in interest, the class may be divided correspondingly, and each subclass treated as a class.") (quoting Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(c)(4) advisory committee notes (1966)).

iii. Other factors

(a) Knowledge of the case and ability to supervise counsel

Courts have sometimes considered representative plaintiffs' knowledge of the case and ability to supervise counsel when evaluating whether they adequately represent the class, thus expecting them "to demonstrate a thorough familiarity with the underlying basis for his cause of action." Kamerman v. Steinberg, 113 F.R.D. 511, 517 (S.D.N.Y. 1986). See also Berger v. Compaq Computer Corp., 257 F.3d 475, 481-83 (5th Cir. 2001) (requiring plaintiffs to be highly knowledgeable about claims because of "Congress's emphatic command that competent plaintiffs, rather than lawyers, direct such cases."). The Second Circuit Court of Appeals has held that this "knowledge" requirement should be applied with a view toward typicality concerns:

[T]he motivation behind requiring representative plaintiffs to demonstrate great familiarity with the case is a fear that the representatives, during pretrial discovery and at trial, will give misleading and contradictory testimony with regard to basic issues in the case that might make their claims subject to unique defenses. . . . [I]n that situation, the challenge to class certification can alternatively be viewed as a challenge to the representative plaintiffs' compliance with the typicality requirement of Rule 23(a)(3).

Baffa v. Donaldson, Lufkin Jenrette Sec. Corp., 222 F.3d 52, 61 (2d Cir. 2000) (citing In re TCW/DWN. Am. Gov't Income Trust Sec. Litig., 941 F. Supp. 326, 340 (S.D.N.Y. 1996)). The Baffa Court vacated the finding that the plaintiff was not an adequate class representative because "the district court unfortunately seized on a myopic view of the knowledge requirement and concluded that [plaintiff] did not have a basic understanding of the litigation and therefore could not be an adequate class representative." Baffa, 222 F.3d at 61 (citing Surowitz v. Hilton Hotels Corp., 383 U.S. 363, 370-74, 86 S. Ct. 845 (1966), to support the conclusion that "[t]he Supreme Court has expressly disapproved of attacks on the adequacy of a class representative based on the representative's ignorance.").

Representative plaintiffs are not required to know all the intricacies of class litigation, but only enough to serve the interests of the class and ensure that they are not simply lending their names to a suit controlled entirely by the attorneys for the benefit of counsel. See, e.g., In re Frontier Ins. Group, Inc. Sec. Litig., 172 F.R.D. 31 (E.D.N.Y. 1997) (finding that plaintiffs had sufficient familiarity with their claims, despite some isolated quotes from plaintiffs' deposition transcripts suggesting that several of them did not understand legal strategies in the case, had only recently fully read their complaints, did not consider problems attending participation of eleven law firms in the action, had imperfect recollections of their investments, and did not fully comprehend their duty to supervise class counsel); Michaels v. Ambassador Group Inc., 110 F.R.D. 84 (E.D.N.Y. 1986) (finding that representative plaintiff in a class action for alleged securities violations need not have extensive knowledge of federal securities laws or complete familiarity with all particulars of the lawsuit; class representative's awareness of the basic facts underlying the lawsuit as alleged in the complaint and of his obligations to fellow class members suffices); County of Suffolk, 710 F. Supp. at 1416 (stating that in complex actions "named plaintiffs are not required to 'have expert knowledge of all the details of the case . . . and a great deal of reliance on expert counsel is to be expected'"); Trautz v. Weisman, 846 F. Supp. 1160, 1168 (S.D.N.Y. 1994) (finding adequate representation in RICO case where plaintiff's deposition revealed an extremely limited understanding of (1) the RICO statute, (2) facts asserted in complaint, and (3) his role as a class representative); In re THQ Inc. Sec. Litig., No. CV 00-1783AHM, 2002 WL 1832145, at *7 (C.D. Cal. Mar. 22, 2002) (holding that although some representatives were unfamiliar with some details of the case and were unaware that they might be liable for costs and fees if the claim was unsuccessful, that level of unfamiliarity with the class action was not sufficient to defeat class certification). Particularly where members of the class are laypersons without any necessary business or legal experience and the claims are small, detailed knowledge of the claim is inappropriate, approaching irrelevance.

(b) Credibility of representatives

It is appropriate to consider the "honesty and trustworthiness" of class representatives. Savino v. Computer Credit, Inc., 164 F.3d 81, 87 (2d Cir. 1998). Potential class representatives may not be adequate representation for the class if they "are so lacking in credibility that they are likely to harm their case." In re Frontier Ins. Group, Inc. Sec. Litig., 172 F.R.D. 31, 47 (E.D.N.Y. 1997) (citing Panzirer v. Wolf, 663 F.2d 365 (2d Cir. 1981)). Plaintiffs have been found to be inadequate class representatives where their testimony on an "issue critical to" the cause of action was "subject to sharp attack." Kline v. Wolf, 702 F.2d 400, 403 (2d Cir. 1983). See, e.g., Panzirer, 663 F.2d at 368 (finding that lack of credibility made the plaintiff an inadequate class representative where the plaintiff had given "no less than four versions of her conversation with her broker"); Savino, 164 F.3d at 87 (finding that lack of credibility made the plaintiff an inadequate class representative where the plaintiff "repeatedly changed his position . . . about letters that form[ed] the very basis of his lawsuit"); Zemel Family Trust v. Philips Int'l Realty Corp., 205 F.R.D. 434 (S.D.N.Y. 2002) (finding that lack of credibility made the plaintiff an inadequate class representative where the plaintiff falsely represented himself as a CFO); Darvin v. Int'l Harvester Co., 610 F. Supp. 255, 257 (S.D.N.Y. 1985) (finding that lack of credibility made the plaintiff an inadequate class representative where the plaintiff changed his testimony regarding an issue central to the action numerous times). Where the individual claims are not based on credibility of individual smokers, but on the characteristics of a universe to be determined with the aid of experts, the candor of one representative plaintiff among many is not decisive.

b. Application of law to facts

i. Named plaintiffs

Proposed plaintiffs will serve as adequate representatives of the putative class. Defendants have not identified any interests that are sufficiently antagonistic or conflicting as to preclude the proposed class representatives from adequately representing the class as a whole. The proposed representative plaintiffs appear to be typical smokers as interested in establishing defendants' liability as are the rest of the class.

Any intra-class conflicts that may arise concerning the amount and allocation of the potential damages will not preclude the proposed plaintiffs from serving as class representatives. If conflicts arise, the court has sufficient power to handle them. All named plaintiffs have relatively small potential recoveries so their interests will not conflict with the unnamed plaintiffs.

Plaintiffs' lack of specific or technical knowledge about their claims does not disqualify them as class representatives. "To require the class representative to be sophisticated and knowledgeable enough to help counsel . . . would reduce the class action device . . . to an impotent tool." Dura-Bilt, 89 F.R.D. at 103. It is unrealistic in a complex RICO action involving decades of alleged fraud and collusion to expect lay plaintiffs to be experts on the intricate legal details of their case. It is sufficient that the proposed representatives appear to have a common sense understanding of how they were allegedly wronged and what the consequences of this litigation may be.

The competence of present highly skilled and unconflicted class counsel will suffice to ensure that they are adequately represented. This litigation scheme was encouraged by Congress' inclusion of "the carrot of treble damages" in RICO, Klehr, 521 U.S. at 199 n. 2, and by the design of Rule 23, to aggregate relatively small recoveries into "something worth someone's (usually an attorney's) labor." Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 617 (emphasis added).

Defendants' contention that named plaintiffs who continue to smoke after the filing of the complaint cannot be deemed to have relied on defendants' alleged misrepresentations at any time is premature: the place of addiction in this suit remains unclear.

Finally, the proposed plaintiffs, individually or as a group, do not demonstrate a lack of credibility warranting their exclusion as class representatives. They are: Susan Bailey Barbara Bishop Trevor Campbell Fergal Furlong David Rogers Barbara Schwab Patricia Scocozza James "Jim" Sherman

Home: Peoria, Arizona Age: 56 Marital status: Widowed Children: 3 Grandchildren: 1 (she has permanent legal guardianship) Education: K-12, plus 1 1/2 years of college Occupation: Office Supervisor at Helping Hands of Hope (part-time) Started Smoking: 14 years old First brand: Marlboro Reds (1962-1971) Lights brand: Marlboro Lights (1971-1998) Current brand: Marlboro Ultra Lights (1998-present) Home: McGee, Mississippi Age: 49 Marital status: Divorced Children: 2 Grandchildren: 1 Education: K-12, plus 2 years of college in 1981 and 1987 Occupation: None, SSI Started Smoking: 19 years old First brand: Salem Menthol (1975-1977) Lights brand: Salem Lights (1977-2001) Current brand: Misty Menthol Lights (2001-present) Defendants' objection to this proposed plaintiff on credibility grounds is not sufficient to disqualify her. Home: Lexington, Kentucky Age: 31 Marital status: Partnership Children: 0 Education: G.E.D. Occupation: SSI Started Smoking: 17 years old First brand: Marlboro Lights (1990) Lights brand: Marlboro Lights (1990); Camel Lights (2003) Current brand: Marlboro Lights and Camel Lights Home: Hammond, Indiana Age: 31 Marital status: Married Children: 2 Education: College degree Occupation: Web design; Information technology Started Smoking: 14 years old First brand: Carols (Irish brand) (1987-1994) Lights brand: Marlboro Lights (1998-present) Current brand: Marlboro Lights Home: Abbotsford, Wisconsin Age: 39 Marital status: Single (engaged) Children: 0 Education: High school diploma; Trade school certification Occupation: School bus driver Started Smoking: 11 years old First brand: Kool Super Longs (1976-1981) Lights brand: Kool Lights (1981-1983); Marlboro Lights (1983-1944); Doral Lights (1994-2001) Current brand: Doral (2001-present) Defendants' objection to this proposed plaintiff are similar to those made to Ms. Bishop. They are not disqualifying. Home: Falconer, New York Age: 38 Marital status: Married Children: 4 Grandchildren: 0 Education: K-12 plus 4 computer classes Occupation: Unemployed Started Smoking: 18 years old First brand: Marlboro Reds (1984-86) Lights brand: Newport Menthol Lights (1987-1990) Current brand: Misty Ultra Light Menthol (1995-present) Home: Pelham, New York Age: 73 Marital status: Widowed Children: 1 Grandchildren: 1 Education: K-12 Occupation: Retired Started Smoking: 15 years old First brand: Camels (1946-48) Lights brand: Marlboro Lights (1971-2001) Current brand: Quit in 2001 Home: La Quinta, California Age: 53 Marital status: Divorced Children: 1 Grandchildren: 0 Education: Associate's degree in marketing Occupation: Office Administration Started Smoking: 15 years old First brand: Marlboro Reds (1967-1971) Lights brand: Marlboro Lights (1971-present) Current brand: Marlboro Lights Defendants' objections to this proposed plaintiff are similar to those made to Ms. Bishop. They are not disqualifying. ii. Proposed class counsel

Plaintiffs move to appoint Cohen, Milstein, Hausfeld Toll, P.L.L.C. and Finkelstein, Thompson, Loughran as co-lead class counsel in accordance with Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23(g). Proposed counsel have performed significant work in investigating the claims of the class and have committed substantial resources to represent the putative class in the litigation to date. They have demonstrated extensive knowledge of the applicable law and experience in handling similar class actions. Their briefs, exhibits, and oral representations are excellent. Since defendants' attacks on the choice of class representatives have been rejected, there is no other factor to suggest proposed counsel are not "qualified, experienced, and generally able to conduct the litigation." In re Joint E. S. Dist. Asbestos Litig., 78 F.3d 764, 778 (2d Cir. 1996). The court finds that proposed counsel will adequately represent the interests of the class.

C. Rule 23(b)(2): Injunctive or Declaratory Relief

1. Law

Rule 23(b)(2) permits class certification if "the party opposing the class has acted or refused to act on grounds generally applicable to the class, thereby making appropriate final injunctive relief or corresponding declaratory relief with respect to the class as a whole." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(2). A class will be certified if "broad, class-wide injunctive or declaratory relief is necessary to redress a group-wide injury." Robinson v. Metro-North Commuter R.R. Co., 267 F.3d 147, 162 (2d Cir. 2001).

Subsection (b)(2) has primarily been used in civil rights, institutional, environmental, and law reform cases. See 2 Newberg on Class Actions § 4:11. Since it focuses primarily on injunctive relief, some difficulty may arise in cases where plaintiffs seek both injunctive relief and money damages. Money-damage class actions generally fall under Rule 23(b)(3), which imposes additional notice requirements and opt-out rights, as well as stricter predominance and superiority requirements for the protection of absent class members. "[T]he main focus in determining the applicability of subdivision (b)(2) is whether the injunctive relief that is being sought is deemed to be the primary relief, with money damages being only incidental. A suit predominantly seeking money damages does not qualify under [subdivision (b)(2)]." Wright Miller § 1775. See also Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 391 F.2d 555, 564 (2d Cir. 1968) ("Subsection (b)(2) was never intended to cover cases like the instant one where the primary claim is for damages, but is only applicable where the relief sought is exclusively or predominantly injunctive or declaratory."). But see Visa Check, 192 F.R.D. at 88 (finding antitrust action to be maintainable as a class action under Rule 23(b)(2) notwithstanding a prayer for damages because the request for an injunction ending the collusive practice was central to the suit).

In Robinson v. Metro-North Commuter R.R. Co., 267 F.3d at 167, the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit adopted a "discretionary" ad hoc standard for determining whether a claim should be certified for class treatment under Rule 23(b)(2). In doing so, the court rejected the Fifth Circuit's "no more than incidental damages" standard, a bright-line approach that "forecloses (b)(2) class certification of all claims that include compensatory damages (or punitive damages) even if the class-wide injunctive relief is the form of relief in which the plaintiffs are primarily interested." Id. at 163 (internal quotation marks omitted).

Rather, [it held] that when presented with a motion for (b)(2) class certification of a claim seeking both injunctive relief and non-incidental monetary damages, a district court must consider the evidence presented at a class certification hearing and the arguments of counsel, and then assess whether (b)(2) certification is appropriate in light of the relative importance of the remedies sought, given all of the facts and circumstances of the case. The district court may allow (b)(2) certification if it finds in its informed, sound judicial discretion that (1) the positive weight or value [to the plaintiffs] of the injunctive or declaratory relief sought is predominant even though compensatory or punitive damages are also claimed, and (2) class treatment would be efficient and manageable, thereby achieving an appreciable measure of judicial economy.

Id. at 164 (internal citations and quotation marks omitted). See also Parker v. Time Warner Entm't Co., 331 F.3d 13 (2d Cir. 2003).

Before allowing certification under subsection (b)(2), a district court should, "at a minimum," determine that: "(1) even in the absence of a possible monetary recovery, reasonable plaintiffs would bring the suit to obtain the injunctive or declaratory relief sought; and (2) the injunctive or declaratory relief sought would be both reasonably necessary and appropriate were the plaintiffs to succeed on the merits." Robinson, 267 F.3d at 165. "Insignificant or sham requests for injunctive relief" should not be certified under subsection (b)(2) when the claims are essentially brought for monetary recovery. Id. 2. Application of Law to Facts

The injunctive relief sought by plaintiffs — elimination of "light," "lights," and other such descriptors from all cigarette packaging and advertising — is arguably maintainable under 23(b)(2). The confusion engendered by these descriptors is central to plaintiffs' complaint; cessation of use would prevent, in plaintiffs' view, future deception. The growing awareness of the public health community and smokers that "light" cigarettes do not necessarily confer a health benefit, see, e.g., Monograph 13, Appendix E, infra, and admissions by defendants to this effect, see, e.g., Philip Morris USA website, "Smoking Health Issues: Low Tar Cigarettes," at www.pmusa.com/en/health_issues/low_tar_cigarettes.asp, lessens the importance of any such judicial regulation of the industry without lessening the difficulties it would entail. In the recently issued final opinion in the government suit against the industry, the district court entered such an injunctive order. See United States v. Philip Morris, 2006 WL 2380681 at *1. Coordination between the Department of Justice and the FTC may permit that injunction to be enforced.

Much more important to the private individuals making up the class is financial compensation for the past fraud allegedly perpetrated on them. For the reasons stated in Part III.D.4, supra, injunctive relief is not available in this case. A Rule 23(b)(2) class will not be certified.

D. Rule 23(b)(3): Money Damages

Rule 23(b)(3) permits the certification of a class action if the prerequisites of subdivision (a) are satisfied and if the court finds that (1) "the questions of law or fact common to the members of the class predominate over any questions affecting only individual members," and (2) "a class action is superior to other available methods for the fair and efficient adjudication of the controversy." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b). See also Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 615; Moore v. PaineWebber, Inc., 306 F.3d 1247, 1252 (2d Cir. 2002). "Framed for situations in which 'class action treatment is not as clearly called for' as it is in Rule 23(b)(1) and (b)(2) situations, Rule 23(b)(3) permits certification where class suit may 'nevertheless be convenient and desirable.'" Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 615 (quoting Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3) advisory committee notes (1966)). The Supreme Court has stated that "[w]hile the text of Rule 23(b)(3) does not exclude from certification cases in which individual damages run high, the Advisory Committee had dominantly in mind vindication of 'the rights of groups of people who individually would be without effective strength to bring their opponents into court at all.'" Id. at 617. 1. Law

a. Predominance of common questions of law or fact

Rule 23(b)(3) requires that "the questions of law or fact common to the members of the class predominate over any questions affecting only individual members." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3). This predominance inquiry focuses on the same commonality issues as Rule 23(a)(2), but employs a significantly more demanding standard, testing "whether proposed classes are sufficiently cohesive to warrant adjudication by representation." Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 623. It "calls only for predominance, not exclusivity, of common questions." Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 140.

Issues applicable to the class will be said to predominate "if resolution of some of the legal or factual questions that qualify each class member's case as a genuine controversy can be achieved through generalized proof, and if these particular issues are more substantial than the issues subject only to individualized proof." Moore, 306 F.3d at 1252. See also Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 136 ("In order to meet the predominance requirement of Rule 23(b)(3), a plaintiff must establish that the issues in the class action that are subject to generalized proof, and thus applicable to the class as a whole, . . . predominate over those issues that are subject only to individualized proof.") (internal quotation marks omitted). A court deciding a motion for certification under 23(b)(3) therefore examines which, if any, of the required elements of the plaintiffs' claims and any defenses can be established by common evidence. See Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 136.

As the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit recently clarified the matter, certification on particular issues may be appropriate even if certification of the class on all issues is not. In re Nassau County Strip Search Cases, 461 F.3d 219, 2006 WL 2441023, at *7 (2d Cir. Aug. 24, 2006) (directing the district court to certify a proposed class on the issue of liability; "a court may employ subsection [23](c)(4) to certify a class as to liability regardless of whether the claim as a whole satisfies Rule 23(b)(3)'s predominance requirement").

i. Violation of RICO mail or wire fraud

In determining Rule 23(b)(3) predominance, the court's inquiry is primarily focused on issues of liability. See Cumberland Farms v. Browning Ferris Indus., 120 F.R.D. 642, 647 (E.D. Pa. 1988). It is the alleged racketeering conduct, such as a wide-spread scheme of mail and wire fraud designed to mislead a class of buyers about a particular commodity, that creates liability in a RICO action. The charged racketeering conduct will therefore be the most important issue in the predominance inquiry:

[T]he gravamen of the alleged fraud is not limited to the specific misrepresentations made to [plaintiffs]. The allegation is of a whole roster of deception designed to contrive a false image of [the defendant company]. . . . It is the underlying scheme which demands attention. Each plaintiff is similarly situated with respect to it, and it would be folly to force each [plaintiff] to prove the nucleus of the alleged fraud again and again.

In re ACC Lincoln Sav. Loan Sec. Litig., 140 F.R.D. 425, 431 (D. Ariz. 1992) (citing Shores v. Sklar, 647 F.2d 462 (5th Cir. 1981)) (emphasis supplied).

The Supreme Court has recognized that Rule 23(b)(3) predominance "is a test readily met in certain cases alleging consumer or securities fraud or violations of the antitrust laws." Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 625. Such situations involve an "underlying scheme" to defraud a large group of purchasers which focuses the court's inquiry on the conduct of the defendant rather than that of individual plaintiffs, making it particularly susceptible to common, generalized proof. See Falise v. American Tobacco Co., 94 F. Supp. 2d 316, 335 (E.D.N.Y. 2000); Lerch v. Citizens First Bancorp, Inc., 144 F.R.D. 247, 252 (D.N.J. 1992) ("[P]redominance may be found if the defendant's challenged activities stem from a single, class-wide course of conduct, so that the issue of statutory liability is common to the class.") (internal quotation marks omitted).

ii. Causation and reliance

A RICO plaintiff "faces an additional hurdle" of showing injury caused "by reason of" the RICO violation. Summit Properties Inc. v. Hoechst Celanese Corp., 214 F.3d 556, 559 (5th Cir. 2000). Although reliance is required to show causation for RICO claims based on mail or wire fraud, "the nature of the reliance is not a constant." Falise, 94 F. Supp. 2d at 335.

(a) General proof of reliance

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has not specifically decided the standard of reliance for RICO claims such as those in the instant case. Its approach to reliance in fraud cases varies with context. For example, in a life insurance fraud claim brought under RICO, it held:

Fraud actions must therefore be separated into two categories: fraud claims based on uniform misrepresentations made to all members of the class and fraud claims based on individualized misrepresentations. The former are appropriate subjects for class certification because the standardized misrepresentations may be established by generalized proof. Where there are material variations in the nature of the misrepresentations made to each member of the proposed class, however, class certification is improper because plaintiffs will need to submit proof of the statements made to each plaintiff, the nature of the varying material misrepresentations, and the reliance of each plaintiff upon those misrepresentations in order to sustain their claims.

Moore v. PaineWebber, Inc., 306 F.3d 1247, 1253 (2d Cir. 2002) (de-certifying a class because it fell into the latter category).

In Falise v. American Tobacco Co., reliance for RICO fraud claims was found to be amenable to generalized proof in situations where the scheme of fraud was targeted at a large portion of the public:

Where [a] fraudulent scheme is limited in scope and specifically targeted at only one or a few individuals, organizations, or entities, the establishment of causation should require reliance on identifiable misrepresentations. Where, however, the fraudulent scheme is targeted broadly at a large proportion of the American public the requisite showing of reliance is less demanding. Such sophisticated, broad-based fraudulent schemes by their very nature are likely to be designed to distort the entire body of public knowledge rather than to individually mislead millions of people. From the perspective of the fraudulent actors, clear efficiencies are gained by co-opting the media and other outlets of information as unwitting tools for the pervasive scheme. . . . To require reliance on specific misrepresentations where indirect channels of communication were integral to the success of the scheme would produce the perverse result of having the most massive and sinister fraudulent schemes be the ones that must escape civilRICO liability.

94 F. Supp. 2d at 335.

Similar adjustments have been made in other areas of the law. While neither binding in this case, nor identical in reasoning, securities fraud and antitrust actions provide illuminating examples of how federal courts have interpreted the standard of proof for reliance involved in broad-based schemes of fraud. For example, in Basic v. Levinson, 485 U.S. 224, 108 S. Ct. 978 (1988), the Supreme Court recognized that if every investor were required to prove individual reliance in securities cases, it would preclude plaintiffs from ever being certified as a class and, effectively, from ever bringing suit at all. 485 U.S. at 245 (requiring proof of individual reliance would impose an "unnecessarily unrealistic evidentiary burden"). Not satisfied with such a result, the Supreme Court reasoned that securities fraud class actions may be premised on a fraud-on-the-market presumption of reliance. Id.

First recognized by federal courts in Blackie v. Barrack, 524 F.2d 891 (9th Cir. 1975), the fraud-on-the-market theory is based on the idea that, in an efficient securities market, stock prices will reflect all publicly available information, including fraudulent misinformation. Because this misinformation inflates the stock price on which buyers rely in determining the worth of the entity in which they are investing, buyers implicitly rely on the fraudulent misinformation without necessarily realizing it; therefore, when alleging that the corporation fraudulently provided information that altered its stock price, individual plaintiffs do not have to prove that they personally saw or read the inaccurate information. See Basic, 485 U.S. 224; Blackie, 524 F.2d 891.

The fraud-on-the-market presumption of reliance amounts to an acceptably objective standard of what constitutes reliance, where reliance may be inferred from the materiality of the misstatements or omissions that constitute the fraud. Professor Samuel Issacharoff cogently argues that this is essentially the same standard of proof as is found in defective product claims based on strict liability, implied warranty of merchantability, or breach of express warranty, where subjective reliance need not be established because "consumer expectations can be fairly presumed." Samuel Issacharoff, The Vexing Problem of Reliance in Consumer Class Actions, 74 Tul. L. Rev. 1633, 1635 (2000). "What seems to emerge in both contexts is the sense that repeat actors in the relevant markets should be held accountable for the material representations that situate their products in the respective competitive markets." Id. at 1651. The law is willing to adjust the standard of proof in such fraud cases, using notions of common sense and fairness to effectuate the overall purpose of the statutory scheme. See, e.g., Basic, 485 U.S. at 246 (the fraud-on-the market presumption is "supported by common sense and probability"); Blackie, 524 F.2d at 908 ("[T]he same causal nexus can be adequately established indirectly, by proof of materiality coupled with the common sense that a stock purchaser does not ordinarily seek to purchase a loss in the form of artificially inflated stock. . . .").

Such a presumption may be appropriate in the present case, where defendants have conceded that all rational smokers would avoid health risks by choosing a less dangerous cigarette if they could. See Tr. of Sept. 13, 2006 Hr'g 84:23-85:2 ("[T]he central question of whether a purchaser, given two identical cigarettes, taste identical, cost the same, everything, would prefer one that had less risk or more risk [is] a question that only a suicidal person could answer in the negative, or someone who didn't understand the question.").

These doctrines are flexible; they permit deviations in favor of class certification. In Visa Check, the Court of Appeals cited Blackie v. Barrack (a securities suit) to support its conclusion in an antitrust case that common issues may predominate over individual ones notwithstanding individual questions of causation where liability can be determined on a class-wide basis. See also Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 391 F.2d at 565, 567 (noting "the desirability of providing small claimants with a forum in which to seek redress for alleged large scale anti-trust violations" and finding that common questions of law or fact predominate over individual questions even though "members of the proposed class might have had different motives when they entered into the odd-lot market.").

Generalized proof may include surveys, expert evidence on marketplace principles, and extrapolated and statistic analysis of individuals and groups in the class, such as that conducted by plaintiffs' experts. See Parts VIII.F, IX.A, infra.

(b) Individual proof of reliance

When individual proof of subjective reliance is required, Courts of Appeals are split over whether such a situation precludes class certification in RICO cases. In Sandwich Chef of Texas, Inc. v. Reliance Nat'l Indem., 319 F.3d 205 (5th Cir. 2003) the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals posited that "[f]raud actions that require proof of individual reliance cannot be certified as Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3) class actions because individual, rather than common, issues will predominate." 319 F.3d at 211. The court explained its position rejecting certification:

Causation is one issue to be tried in the present case. RICO creates a civil cause of action for [a]ny person injured in his business or property by reason of a violation of section 1962. . . . Holmes explicitly confirmed that the "by reason of" language in RICO requires a causal connection between the predicate mail or wire fraud and a plaintiff's injury that includes "but for" and "proximate" causation. In common law fraud cases, proof of reliance satisfies the "but for" cause, or cause-in-fact, requirement.

. . . .

Proximate cause generally demands that a misrepresentation be relied upon by the plaintiff, individually.

. . . .

To determine reliance for each individual class member would defeat the economies ordinarily associated with the class action device.

Id. at 218-219 (internal citations and quotation marks omitted).

This unyielding rigid approach has been rejected by other federal appellate courts, including the Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, which reversed a district court's denial of class certification in a RICO action and rejected Sandwich Chef's result:

In deciding that . . . the case was inappropriate for class treatment, the [district] judge was applying the presumption against class action certification in RICO cases that has been articulated by the Fifth Circuit in Sandwich Chef of Texas, Inc. v. Reliance Nat'l Indemnity Ins. Co., 319 F.3d 205, 219 (5th Cir. 2003). We are dubious about such a presumption. The question whether RICO was violated can be separated from the question whether particular intended victims were injured, and thus can — or so a district court could determine without being thought to have abused its discretion — be resolved in a single proceeding with the issue of injury parceled out to satellite proceedings, as is frequently done in class action tort litigation, see, e.g., Exxon Co. v. Sofec, Inc., 54 F.3d 570, 575-76 (9th Cir. 1995); In re Bendectin Litigation, 857 F.2d 290, 308-13 (6th Cir. 1988), of which th[is consumer fraud] class litigation is a species.

Carnegie v. Household Intern., Inc., 376 F.3d 656, 663 (7th Cir. 2004). See also Schaefer v. Overland Exp. Family of Funds, 169 F.R.D. 124, 131 (S.D. Cal. 1996) (variation in plaintiffs' reliance did "not result in a conclusion that individual issues predominate over the common questions").

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has used a similar liberal approach to that of the Seventh Circuit in the securities fraud context:

[Defendant] earnestly argues that each person injured must show that he personally relied on the misrepresentations in order to recover and thus any common issues of misrepresentations do not predominate over the individual questions of reliance. Even if [defendant] is correct in its assertion of the need for proof of reliance, and we express no views on that issue, we must still reject the argument. Carried to its logical end, it would negate any attempted class action under Rule 10b-5, since as the District Courts have recognized, reliance is an issue lurking in every 10b-5 action. We see no sound reason why the trial court, if it determines individual reliance is an essential element of the proof, cannot order separate trials on that particular issue. . . .

Green v. Wolf Corp., 406 F.2d 291, 301 (2d Cir. 1968) (internal citation omitted). In this circuit, variations in individual reliance may be adjusted in a variety of ways including averaging through statistical analysis and variations in damage awards. See Parts X.A, X.B, infra.

iii. Injury to property and damages

Individualized damage issues do not preclude a Rule 23(b)(3) class action when liability can be determined on a class-wide basis. Visa Check/MasterMoney Antitrust Litig., 280 F.3d 124, 139 (2d Cir. 2001). See generally Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3) advisory committee notes (1966) (explaining that "a fraud perpetrated on numerous persons by the use of similar misrepresentations may be an appealing situation for a [Rule 23(b)(3)] class action, and it may remain so despite the need, if liability is found, for separate determination of the damages suffered by individuals within the class"); 4 Herbert Newberg Alba Conte, Newberg on Class Actions § 18.27 (3d ed. 1992) (stating that for antitrust class actions, "[a] particularly significant aspect of the Rule 23(b)(3) approach is the recognition that individual damages questions do not preclude a Rule 23(b)(3) class action when the issue of liability is common to the class"); Bertulli v. Independent Ass'n of Cont'l Pilots, 242 F.3d 290, 298 (5th Cir. 2001); Blackie, 524 F.2d at 905 (9th Cir. 1975) ("The amount of damages is invariably an individual question and does not defeat class action treatment.").

If the determination of damages poses some difficulty, the court may employ various devices to manage the issue, instead of denying certification under the predominance inquiry. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has adopted this approach with regard to both securities fraud and antitrust class actions. In Visa Check, the court stated that "if defendants' argument (that the requirement of individualized proof on the question of damages is in itself sufficient to preclude class treatment) were uncritically accepted, there would be little if any place for the class action device in the adjudication of antitrust claims" and "[s]uch a result should not be and has not been readily embraced by the various courts confronted with the same argument." 280 F.3d at 140 (internal citation omitted). The court went on to suggest a number of management tools available to a district court for addressing any individualized damages issues that might occur in a class action, including: "(1) bifurcating liability and damage trials with the same or different juries; (2) appointing a magistrate judge or special master to preside over individual damages proceedings; (3) decertifying the class after the liability trial and providing notice to class members concerning how they may proceed to prove damages; (4) creating subclasses; or (5) altering or amending the class." Id. at 140 (citing Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(c)(4) provision stating that "[w]hen appropriate, (A) an action may be brought or maintained as a class action with respect to particular issues, or (B) a class may be divided into subclasses and each subclass treated as a class.")). In Green v. Wolf, a securities fraud case, the Court of Appeals held that "[t]he district court may use the procedures suggested by Rule 23 to cope with [individual issues]" and can "order separate trials . . . on the question of damages, if necessary. The effective administration of 23(b)(3) will often require the use of the 'sensible device' of split trials." 406 F.2d at 300-301. None of the suggestions in (1) to (5) in Visa Check or in Green is required in the instant case because the matter can be handled by statistical averaging over the entire class. See Part IX.A, infra.

Finding the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit's rationale applicable to the RICO context, the Seventh Circuit, in Carnegie v. Household Intern., Inc., explained:

Often, and possibly in this case as well, there is a big difference from the standpoint of manageability between the liability and remedy phases of a class action. The number of class members need have no bearing on the burdensomeness of litigating a violation of RICO. Whether particular members of the class were defrauded and if so what their damages were are another matter, and it may be that if and when the defendants are determined to have violated the law separate proceedings of some character will be required to determine the entitlements of the individual class members to relief. Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(c)(4)(A); Visa Check/MasterMoney Antitrust Litigation, 280 F.3d 124, 141 (2d Cir. 2001); Robinson v. Metro-North Commuter R.R., 267 F.3d 147, 168-69 (2d Cir. 2001). That prospect need not defeat class treatment of the question whether the defendants violated RICO. Once that question is answered, if it is answered in favor of the class, a global settlement . . . will be a natural and appropriate sequel. And if there is no settlement, that won't be the end of the world. Rule 23 allows district courts to devise imaginative solutions to problems created by the presence in a class action litigation of individual damages issues.

376 F.3d at 661 (some citations omitted). The court went on to quote the five management tools suggested by the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in Visa Check, supra.

b. Superiority

Rule 23(b)(3) requires a court to consider whether a class action is superior to other methods of adjudication. Matters pertinent to this inquiry include: "(A) the interest of members of the class in individually controlling the prosecution or defense of separate actions; (B) the extent and nature of any litigation concerning the controversy already commenced by or against members of the class; (C) the desirability or undesirability of concentrating the litigation of the claims in the particular forum; and (D) the difficulties likely to be encountered in the management of a class action." Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3). See also Eisen v. Carlisle Jacquelin, 417 U.S. 156, 164, 94 S. Ct. 2140 (1974). This is a "nonexhaustive" list. Amchem Prods., 521 U.S. at 615.

"In setting out these factors, the Advisory Committee for the 1966 reform anticipated that in each case, courts would 'consider the interests of individual members of the class in controlling their own litigations and carrying them on as they see fit.'" Id. at 616 (quoting Fed.R.Civ.P. 23(b)(3) advisory committee notes (1966)).

[The Advisory Committee] elaborated: "The interests of individuals in conducting separate lawsuits may be so strong as to call for denial of a class action. On the other hand, these interests may be theoretic rather than practical; the class may have a high degree of cohesion and prosecution of the action through representatives would be quite unobjectionable, or the amounts at stake for individuals may be so small that separate suits would be impracticable."

Id.

The difficulties likely to be encountered in the management of a RICO class action with respect to individual reliance and damages issues have for the most part been discussed in Parts III.C and III.D, supra. While these problems are significant, they are superable. Extrapolation that comports with due process can be carried out using very small samples; the burden on the parties and the court of generating and evaluating the evidence would not be over-great. See, e.g., Michigan Dept. of Educ. v. U.S. Dept. of Educ., 875 F.2d 1196, 1199 (6th Cir. 1989) (in suit by state challenging administrative finding that state department of education had misused federal funds, upholding estimate of disallowance based on 259 samples from a class of 66,368 authorizations, or four-tenths of a percent; "[t]here is no case law that states how large a percentage of the entire universe must be sampled"). See also Ratanasen v. California Dept. of Health Servs., 11 F.3d 1467, 1472 (9th Cir. 1993) (in Medicaid/Medicare audit context, "the cases addressing sampling . . . make no mention of a statistical 'floor' which auditors must exceed in order to guarantee providers due process."). The sample need not comport with any particular sampling methodology. See, e.g., Ratanasen at 1471 n. 1 (case law "do[es] not specify that a certain method of sampling must be used to satisfy due process"; collecting cases). See generally Part IX.A, infra.

It should be noted that "failure to certify an action under Rule 23(b)(3) on the sole ground that it would be unmanageable is disfavored and should be the exception rather than the rule." Visa Check/MasterMoney Antitrust Litig., 280 F.3d 124, 140 (2d Cir. 2001). See also Yaffe v. Powers, 454 F.2d 1362, 1365 (1st Cir. 1972) ("[F]or a court to refuse to certify a class . . . because of vaguely-perceived management problems . . . discount[s] too much the power of the court to deal with a class suit flexibly, in response to difficulties as they arise."); In re Workers' Compensation, 130 F.R.D. 99, 110 (D. Minn. 1990) ("[D]ismissal for management reasons is never favored."); In re Bristol Bay, Alaska, Salmon Fishery Antitrust Litig., 78 F.R.D. 622, 628 (W.D. Wash. 1978) (stating that "dismissal for management reasons, in view of the public interest involved in class actions, should be the exception rather than the rule") (internal quotation marks omitted).

If a class action is "markedly superior to all the alternatives," a court should, "at least at the early stages of the litigation . . . construe broadly the other elements of Rule 23." Green, 406 F.2d at 301.

2. Application of Law to Facts

Subsection (b)(3) of Rule 23 is more comprehensive than subsection (b)(2) and imposes stricter superiority and predominance requirements. See 2 Herbert Newberg Alba Conte, Newberg on Class Actions § 4:1 (4th ed. 2002). The court therefore evaluates plaintiffs' claims under the subsection (b)(3) rubric.

a. Class action is superior method of adjudication

A class action is the superior method for the fair and efficient adjudication of this controversy. Considering the complexity of this lawsuit, involving an alleged conspiracy perpetrated by multiple corporate defendants over a period of several decades, extensive discovery and litigation will be required to prosecute it; most plaintiffs will not be in a position to do so alone or even in smaller joinder actions. The costs to individual plaintiffs would dwarf any potential recovery. One of the fundamental purposes of Rule 23 is to enable such small claimants to seek judicial redress through the aggregation of claims into a single class action.

Plaintiffs, a class of "light" cigarette purchasers, are the only direct victims of an alleged massive scheme by cigarette companies to defraud consumers, and thus may be the only plaintiffs with standing to bring claims against the defendants. In Service Employees Int'l Union Health Welfare Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 249 F.3d 1068 (D.C. Cir. 2001), the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia dismissed a plaintiff labor union trust fund's RICO claims against cigarette companies, holding that the trust funds' injuries were too remote. The Court held: "Like other circuits, we conclude that individual smokers constitute a group of potential plaintiffs possessed of more direct claims who can be counted on to deter the alleged wrongdoing by asserting . . . RICO [or other] claims. . . ." Id. at 1076. See also Blue Cross Blue Shield of N.J., Inc. v. Philip Morris USA Inc., 3 N.Y.3d 200, 207, 818 N.E.2d 1140 (N.Y. 2004) (health insurer could not sue tobacco companies for injuries to its insureds under state deceptive business practice statute); Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey, Inc. v. Philip Morris USA Inc., 344 F.3d 211, 217-18 (2d Cir. 2003) (where plaintiff health plan did not identify identities of its subrogors, its claims were not true subrogation claims and so were too remote to satisfy proximate cause requirement of RICO); Laborers Local 17 Health Benefit Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 191 F.3d 229, 239 (2d Cir. 1999) (union trust funds could not maintain suit under RICO against tobacco companies for increased benefit payments made to injured smokers); Oregon Laborers-Employers Health Welfare Trust Fund v. Philip Morris, Inc., 185 F.3d 957, 964 (9th Cir. 1999) (same; "[t]he existence of the smokers, who are the more direct victims of the alleged wrongful conduct and who can be counted on to vindicate the injury caused by defendants' alleged wrongful conduct, weighs heavily in favor of barring [the labor union trust fund] plaintiffs' actions.").

Given that the United States government was precluded from seeking a disgorgement remedy in their RICO case against the cigarette industry, the instant action, or one like it, is likely to be the only way defendants, if they are responsible for the alleged massive fraudulent scheme, can be forced to account monetarily to "light" cigarette smokers in federal court and be deterred from continuing such fraudulent conduct in the future. See United States v. Philip Morris USA, Inc., 396 F.3d 1190, 1200 (D.C. Cir. 2005) (concluding that the federal government could not seek a disgorgement remedy; "[i]ndividual plaintiffs are made whole and defendants punished through treble damages under 18 U.S.C. § 1964(c) . . ."). It would be unfair for the court system to deny recovery to institutional plaintiffs because direct victims can recover, only to then deny those direct victims recovery.

A class action in the instant case is a superior method of adjudication because it is likely to be the only method of adjudication open to plaintiffs. See Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 398 n. 21 (approving certification of a "light" cigarettes fraud class action; "[t]he device of a class action is . . . driven by pragmatic considerations. Requiring individual actions to be brought by thousands of individual smokers, merely to provide absolute certainty that (for example) each plaintiff sometimes covered up the vent holes, would by wholly impractical."); Curtis, 2004 WL 2776228, at *5 (same; "a class action is not only an appropriate method to resolve the plaintiffs' allegations, but pragmatically, the only method . . ."). On this reasoning, the Supreme Judicial Court of Massachusetts certified a statewide class action alleging a similar cigarette fraud over the defendant's similar objections.

The [trial] judge's conclusion that the plaintiffs' claim warrants certification as a consumer class action is amply supported by the record. The claims of the plaintiffs and members of the purported class (estimated to number in the hundreds of thousands) derive from a common course of conduct on the part of the defendants and present the identical issue-whether the defendants misrepresented material information concerning the design, function, marketing, toxicity, and tar and nicotine yields of Marlboro Lights and, in doing so, violated [state consumer protection law]. The plaintiffs are similarly situated to other consumers of Marlboro Lights, and, because the injury claimed is an economic, and not a personal, injury, all have been similarly injured. Were there to be individual trials (a highly unlikely scenario due to the lack of economic incentive), the common aspects of the defendants' conduct would become a predominant aspect of each trial. Considerations of delay, high costs, and arbitrary results provide further support for the appropriateness of class certification. We conclude that a class action is not only an appropriate method to resolve the plaintiffs' allegations, but, pragmatically, the only method whereby purchasers of Marlboro Lights in Massachusetts can seek redress for the alleged deception."

Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 392-93.

In such "death knell" situations, as in the instant one, where the only possible litigation is a class action, the other requirements of Rule 23 are read broadly, since the court's obligation to protect the interests of absent class members is best served by allowing some form of adjudication, as opposed to none at all, to go forward. See Green v. Wolf Corp., 406 F.2d 291, 302 (2d Cir. 1968) ("If a class action is markedly superior to all the alternatives, then, at least at the early stages of the litigation, we should construe broadly the other elements of Rule 23 . . .").

b. Common questions of law or fact predominate

Questions relating to the defendants' commission of mail and wire fraud through an alleged conspiracy and scheme to fraudulently market "light" cigarettes generates a significant number of common questions of law and of fact, discussed supra. Fraud-based claims premised on a common course of conduct or scheme satisfy the predominance inquiry. The defendants' conduct and the impact of that conduct will be substantially the same for most class members. It would be both inefficient and unjust to force plaintiffs to relitigate the same issues concerning the existence, scope, and effect of what appears to be a uniform fraudulent scheme — whatever minor variations might have existed in its execution. See Davies v. Philip Morris, No. 04-2-08174-2, 2006 WL 1600067, at *2 (Wash. Super. May 26, 2006) (finding commonality under state class action rule; rejecting "the argument . . . that the various packages used over the years or the various commercial advertisements somehow strips [the question of defendants' alleged deception] of its commonality.").

Plaintiffs' experts have demonstrated that they can probably extrapolate to the class as a whole from individual class members' experience as determined in individual discovery, surveys, and statistical proof. Daubert analysis has found their scientific approach meets appropriate standards of proof under the Federal Rules of Evidence despite strong scientific proof to the contrary, proffered by defendants. See Part VIII, infra. The issues are for the jury. Denying certification would bring a premature end to a series of related claims that appear to have considerable merit.

Nevertheless, defendants argue that the existence of four major individualized issues precludes a finding of predominance of the common questions of law or fact. These issues are: (1) reasonable reliance; (2) injury to business or property; (3) calculation of damages; and (4) the affirmative defense that some members of the putative class will be time-barred from recovery by RICO's statute of limitations.

All of these objections are based on defendants' position that each smoker differs from every other smoker — and any one smoker's behavior differs from one day, or one cigarette, to the next. While superficially true, the argument is overstated. The putative class contains only smokers of "light" cigarettes, one segment of the cigarette market. Common sense and defendants' own documents strongly suggest that the members of the class are persons who were drawn to the brand images consciously projected by defendants after careful consumer research. See, e.g., Expert Report of Richard Pollay, ¶¶ 31-37, excerpted in Part VIII.F.1.m (quoting internal industry documents demonstrating defendants' understanding of the "lights" market, including the following from a 1978 study: "The very fact, then, that a smoker has decided to switch from a full-flavor cigarette to a low delivery cigarette tells us something very important about him: he is concerned about his health, and he is willing to do something about it."). It is probable that the variation among plaintiffs' reactions to defendants' representations is not great in ways that matter to the outcome of this case. Cf. Price, Appendix C at ¶ 40, infra ("that Class members may have relied to different degrees or different ways upon [defendants'] health representations" did not preclude class treatment) (emphasis supplied).

i. Reliance

In creating RICO, Congress was particularly concerned that "those who have been wronged . . . should at least be given access to a legal remedy." Sedima, 473 U.S. at 487. Should plaintiffs prove their claims of conspiracy, collusion, and a broad-based scheme to deceive a large part of the American public, they will have established the existence of "organized" RICO crime, in the sense that the conduct was criminal and purposefully orchestrated, with significant effects on the American economy. As Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz notes, defendants'

collusion [if proved,] was clearly responsible for creating and sustaining a radically different business environment. Collusion involved choosing which areas to compete in (like brand images) and which areas not to compete in (like health and safety). Collusion involved restricting the scope of research in a manner that is utterly inexplicable without some joint understanding. And collusion reinforced and strengthened the joint and misleading statements about the harmfulness of tobacco, ensuring that no firm defected from the strategy.

This had profound effects on the cigarette industry. Had the cigarette companies acted in a competitive manner, smoking would have been significantly reduced as a result of consumers coming to a better understanding of health consequences of smoking. In addition, the cigarette companies might have developed and marketed a genuinely less harmful cigarette.

Decl. of Joseph E. Stiglitz at 44; Part VIII.F.1.p.

The burden of proof for RICO reliance in a suit alleging mass market fraud is set out in Falise v. American Tobacco Co.:

Where . . . the fraudulent scheme is targeted broadly at a large proportion of the American public the requisite showing of reliance is less demanding. Such sophisticated, broad-based fraudulent schemes by their very nature are likely to be designed to distort the entire body of public knowledge rather than to individually mislead millions of people. From the perspective of the fraudulent actors, clear efficiencies are gained by co-opting the media and other outlets of information as unwitting tools for the pervasive scheme.

. . .

Where such a broad-based fraudulent scheme is alleged, a plaintiff in order to establish reliance for injury causation need only establish (1) that the RICO defendants intentionally engaged in a scheme to distort the body of public knowledge, (2) that the defendants were successful in doing so (e.g., a substantial factor causing the distortion), (3) that there was detrimental reliance on this distorted knowledge by an intended and foreseeable class of victims, (4) that such reliance was reasonable in the totality of the circumstances, and (5) that the plaintiff was proximately injured by this reliance.

94 F. Supp. 2d 316, 335 (E.D.N.Y. 2000). In such a case, attention is properly trained on defendants' alleged misconduct, not minor differences in plaintiffs' reaction to it. But see Pearson v. Philip Morris, Inc., No. 0211-11819, 2006 WL 663004, at *7, *10 (Or. Cir. Feb. 23, 2006) (placing burden on each plaintiff to demonstrate that he or she was not receiving less tar; individual questions predominated because plaintiffs did not present any evidence purporting to prove reliance and causation on class-wide basis).

In proving that defendants' alleged scheme existed, and class members then purchased "light" rather than "regular" — or no — cigarettes, plaintiffs may be able to show through their experts and other proof that reliance was reasonable and pervasive. Proving such a successful and pervasive marketing scheme presents a substantial hurdle. Yet the evidence thus far presented by the plaintiffs includes evidence sufficient to go to the jury.

Plaintiffs have presented evidence through defendants' own internal documents, memoranda, and first-hand testimony that they recognized at the time that their conduct was likely to create liability to "light" cigarette purchasers. The certainty that not all "light" smokers chose their brands for the same reasons does not preclude a finding that an implied reduction in danger was a substantial factor in nearly all class members' decisions. See Expert Report of John Hauser, Part VIII.F.1.i (concluding based on reliable surveys that 90.1 percent of the class members based their decision to smoker "light" cigarettes on health concerns). Cf. Price, Appendix C at ¶ 47, infra ("[T]he mere existence of potential other reasons for a consumer to prefer the products at issue in this case does not vitiate or eliminate the fraud associated with the health representation as a causative influence on all Class members' purchase decisions.").

Reasonable presumptions may be made based on the nature of sophisticated marketing and advertising of a product available throughout the nation. As one commentator has recognized,

[t]he common law typically has preferred individualized proof of liability, but has authorized departures from individuated proof when practicality demands. For example, contracts are interpreted according to the intent of the parties, but in some cases the intent is impossible to discern. In these cases, intent may be construed by reference to what most people would prefer (so-called majoritarian default rules). Here, interpretation aims to establish individual intent; but proof turns on what most people would have intended and so is not a specific, individualized analysis of the unique transaction. The common law mediates the choice between individual rights and group rights in this way, by prescribing the conditions for, and the degree of departure from, individualized proof.

Mark Moller, The Rule of Law Problem: Unconstitutional Class Actions and Options for Reform, 28 Harv. J. L. Pub. Pol'y 855, 860 (2005). As discussed above, general proof or use of presumptions are practical responses to the limitations of an "individual rights" model in a mass market economy.

A focus on defendant misconduct is not unusual in consumer cases. Theories of consumer products liability and implied warranty of merchantability also emphasize the conduct of defendants and their position relative to plaintiff-purchasers:

[these theories of liability] appear to rest tacitly on several key features of a mature market for mass-produced products. In such markets, sellers produce without contact with any particular buyers. The sellers maintain exclusive control over product development and production until the finished product is released into the stream of commerce. The sellers have superior, if not exclusive, access to information that would generally be critical for establishing more traditional bases for liability, such as negligence. Finally, the product is sold among similar goods, such that consumer expectations can be fairly presumed. . . .

Samuel Issacharoff, The Vexing Problem of Reliance in Consumer Class Actions, 74 Tul. L. Rev. 1633, 1648 (2000).

Individual subjective reliance has also been de-emphasized in the law of express warranties, having been largely replaced by "an obligation on the part of the seller to honor the 'basis of the bargain.'" Id. at 1652. Professor Issacharoff argues that these alterations in the standard of proof of reliance are often presented in class certification debates because:

First, the assertion of this claim on behalf of a class has a compelling logic to it, as reflected in the common issue and predominance requirements of Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 23. Second, absent collective prosecution, there would be no redress since no consumer would ever pursue such a claim alone, a step that also has a rules component under the superiority requirement of Rule 23(b)(3)[; this is] not truly a procedural issue at all, but a legacy of the incomplete resolution of the role of individual reliance in the substantive law[.]

Id. at 1635.

Such a concentration of attention by the court is particularly appropriate in the present suit. Defendants not only had significantly more economic power than smokers, they also had significant control of the scientific information available to consumers regarding the healthiness or dangers of "light" cigarettes. There is substantial evidence that they used their knowledge and power to the detriment of the public: they allegedly agreed to halt much of the scientific testing and development of a truly healthy cigarette, hid much of the adverse scientific information they did discover (including knowledge about the failings of the FTC method of measuring tar and nicotine), and exploited other knowledge (including information concerning compensation). See, e.g., Simon II, Appendix D at Part III.B.5, infra. As a result, consumers were unlikely to have had any way to challenge or any basis to critique the health information disseminated by the defendants concerning "light" cigarettes.

Substantial evidence supports plaintiffs' position that defendants used general "proof," in the form of marketing research and customer surveys, to determine how to advertise and promote their products to actual and potential smokers. See, e.g., Expert Report of Paul Slovic, dated Aug. 15, 2005 ¶¶ 27-32, excerpted in Part VIII.F.1.o, infra (describing defendants' use of "sophisticated methods to uncover consumer needs and motivations that could be addressed in targeted advertising and promotion campaigns. These methods included focus groups and large surveys designed to measure smoking behavior, people's attention to advertising materials, and their attitudes and emotional responses.") (citations to defendant documents omitted). Advertisement imagery and verbiage was chosen to appeal to the entire prospective market of "light" smokers. Information about the health risks was allegedly withheld from all, not just some. Why, plaintiffs properly ask, should they be precluded from seeking a remedy as a class when defendants treated them as a class in allegedly defrauding them? Fairness requires that a jury be given some concrete basis on which to determine the effects of defendants' conduct on plaintiffs. See Parts III.D.3.b, supra; IX.A.3, infra. It does not require utter certainty as to the quantum of those effects before a class may be certified.

Where a defendant specifically targets a large group and knowingly relies on the group's dynamics and communications to succeed in a fraud, that group may assert its "group rights" in holding the defendant accountable for its conduct. The RICO mail and wire fraud federal substantive law and the Rule 23 federal procedural law together provide a powerful tool for satisfying the community's basic sense of fairness while protecting defendants' due process rights. Utilization of the class action does not change the lawful conduct to be expected of the defendants when the alleged conspiracy was operative.

As discussed above, the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has held in antitrust and securities fraud contexts that reliance issues do not warrant class de-certification, especially where the defendant's liability can be established through common proof. See In re Visa Check/MasterMoney Antitrust Litig., 280 F.3d 124, 140 (2d Cir. 2001); Green v. Wolf Corp., 406 F.2d at 300-301. The Seventh Circuit extended this approach to RICO claims in Carnegie, 376 F.3d at 661. This approach is applicable to the present case. The facts in the instant case are at least as compelling as those in Visa Check, Green, and Carnegie.

ii. Injury to property and damages

Defendants argue that plaintiffs cannot show injury to property on a class-wide basis. Under their theory, the requisite showing of injury would require an individualized determination of each class member's personal loss because, defendants maintain, at least some of them got what they were promised from "light" cigarettes. For example, if an individual plaintiff cannot show that he or she "compensated" for the lower tar and nicotine levels in "light" cigarettes by inhaling more deeply, covering ventilation holes, or smoking greater quantities of cigarettes, then that plaintiff may not be able to prove that he or she did not receive less tar and nicotine, and thus, it is contended, cannot prove any injury.

Defendants' claims are not convincing on the issue of certification. First, the question of what was promised has not yet been decided. Whether the promise, explicit or implicit, in defendants' advertising campaign was the delivery of less tar and nicotine or a healthier cigarette is a question subject to proof and best decided by a jury in a centralized class adjudication.

Second, plaintiffs have proffered several theories of injury and damages that are based on "light" cigarettes being overpriced. For example, plaintiffs' expert John C. Beyer, Ph.D. has identified one such method:

The first methodology, which I refer to as the 'demand methodology,' relies upon the estimation of the demand and supply of cigarettes during a period that includes the period preceding the introduction of light cigarettes and which includes the entire class period. I then measure the effect that the introduction of light cigarettes had on total demand for cigarettes and the prices paid by class members for cigarettes. . . . [The] effect of light cigarettes was almost certainly to increase total cigarette demand, resulting in more consumption of cigarettes than otherwise would have been the case. Because of the higher level of consumption arising from the conspiracy, purchasers of light cigarettes paid higher prices than they would have in the but-for world.

Expert Report of John C. Beyer at ¶ 32; Part VIII.F.1.a, infra.

Plaintiffs' expert Jeffrey E. Harris, M.D. Ph.D. has identified another economic methodology for computing class-wide damages:

In the . . . "loss of value" approach, an economist assesses, on a per-cigarette basis, the difference between the price paid for the goods as represented and the value of the goods actually sold.

See Expert Report of Jeffrey E. Harris at ¶¶ 11, 20; Part VIII.F.1.h, infra.

Both Dr. Beyer's and Dr. Harris's proposed testimony meet Daubert requirements. See Parts VIII.F.1.a, VIII.F.1.h, infra. They sufficiently support certification.

Defendants' contention that certification is inappropriate because some smokers likely received less nicotine and tar, or a cigarette that was in fact less dangerous, places an impossible and unnecessary burden on plaintiffs. "So far as we are aware, the actual level of tar and nicotine received by an individual smoker is a factor that cannot be measured by any test." Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 398. And the obverse of defendants' position is also true: if some smokers received what was promised, then others did not. See Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 398 n. 20 ("Indeed, it may be unlikely that any individual would smoke a cigarette the exact same way twice. Thus, by implication, it is probable that no smoker received the promised benefit of lowered tar and nicotine every time he or she smoked a Marlboro Lights cigarette."). Reliable statistical evidence is available to help the jury decide, within a reasonably precise range, how many fall into the defrauded category. See Part IX.A, infra.

As discussed in Part III, plaintiffs' evidence to date is less than decisive. It is sufficient, however, to support certification. Cf. Caridad, 191 F.3d at 293 (reversing district court's denial of certification where the trial court had credited defendant's expert evidence over plaintiffs'; "More detailed statistics might be required to sustain the Plaintiffs' burden of persuasion, but [their proffered expert] report, in conjunction with the anecdotal evidence, satisfies the Class Plaintiffs' burden of demonstrating commonality for purposes of class certification.") (internal citation omitted).

Individual smoker variation is no reason to deny recovery to the entire class:

[T]he Court is not convinced from the record that alleged differences in individual smoking behavior constitute a sound and sufficient reason to deny class action status in this case. While it undoubtedly is true in a broad and generic sense that there are differences in smoking behavior from smoker to smoker, the Court believes there are indications in the record that "compensation" may be a virtually universal behavioral characteristic of all smokers of so-called "low tar" cigarettes, including Marlboro Lights. If so, then the individual differences in smoking behavior would have no effect in terms of requiring individual mini-trials for each class member, because despite any such differences, each class member would still have received a product that in fact did not deliver, to him or her, lower yields of tar and nicotine.

Craft, 2003 WL 23355745, at *4. Such a smoker has been defrauded — he or she paid for something that he or she did not get — and so has suffered an economic injury.

This economic loss can arguably be calculated based on general data from the market, such as cigarette sales records, rather than on receipts that "light" cigarette purchasers may or may not have kept. It is not necessarily contingent on whether some "light" cigarette purchasers would have continued to smoke regular cigarettes but for the "lights" fraud. See Part III.B.2.a, supra (rejecting argument that, as a matter of law, plaintiffs who would have smoked regular cigarettes absent the fraud suffered no injury).

A class certification motion is not the proper forum in which to evaluate the merits of experts' theory of damages, but only to ascertain whether they are colorable. See Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 139 (holding that the court "must ensure that the basis of the expert opinion is not so flawed that it would be inadmissible as a matter of law," but should not consider "whether the evidence will ultimately be persuasive."); Caridad v. Metro-North Commuter R.R., 191 F.3d 283, 292-93 (2d Cir. 1999) (holding that a court may not weigh conflicting expert evidence or engage in "statistical dueling" of experts."). See also Aspinall, 442 Mass. at 400 ("Whether plaintiffs ultimately will be successful in proving actual damages is a matter that need not be resolved at the certification stage.").

There is no persuasive reason why individualized damages should preclude certification under Rule 23(b)(3), even were they to become an issue, "when the issue of liability can be determined on a class-wide basis." 280 F.3d at 139.

[I]f the Court were to say that class action status is inappropriate in this type of case merely because there may be some individual questions that need to be resolved with regard to class damages, then it would severely limit the type of consumer fraud actions that could ever be brought . . . since many if not most such actions would necessarily involve at least some differences among class members regarding prices or amounts of purchases. This . . . would be contrary to the underlying spirit and intent of [the cause of action]. . . .

Craft, 2003 WL 23355745, at *10.

Defendants also contend that plaintiffs' claims are personal injury claims in disguise, and so raise predominating individual questions rendering certification inappropriate. Plaintiffs' theories of injury and damages are based on the actual worth of the "light" cigarette as compared to how much a purchaser paid for them when deluded into thinking they were relatively healthful. This is an economic loss, not a personal injury. It raises questions of claim splitting, already rejected in Part IV.C, supra, but not questions of individual proof.

The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has stated, in the criminal context, that "a party who contracts to have goods produced or services performed according to certain specifications, and who pays for those goods or services in reliance on a fraudulent representation that they conform to the specifications, has sustained a measure of pecuniary loss. . . ." United States v. Canova, 412 F.3d 331, 354 (2d Cir. 2005) (emphasis supplied). This principle holds true even where the goods purchased have medical implications. See id. at 352 ("Whether the testing time on a pacemaker, the number of rivets on an airplane wing, or the coats of paint on a refurbished building . . . the victim [who] has been induced to pay for something that it wanted and was promised but did not get [has] incurr[ed] some measure of pecuniary 'loss.'") (emphasis supplied).

Plaintiffs have suggested a sensible and usable plan for managing the litigation. Pls.' Resp. to Mem. of June 6, 2005, Ex. 8. They have included understandable proposed jury charges, verdict forms, and notice procedures. Pls.' Resp. to Mem. of June 6, 2005 (Docket No. 676), Exs. 3-7. While they propose a bifurcated trial as suggested in Green, the court finds that a single trial of liability and damages is practicable and desirable; a single trial will save time and money.

iii. Statute of limitations

Individual issues concerning the statute of limitations do not predominate over common questions of liability, and thus do not preclude class certification under Rule 23(b)(3). Defendants contend that the class must include at least some untimely claims under RICO's four-year limitations period, which would bar plaintiffs who were or reasonably should have been on notice of their injury before May 11, 2000 when the action was commenced.

The issue of timeliness goes to the merits of the case, and cannot be decided now to deny certification. Chiang v. Veneman, 385 F.3d 256 (3d Cir. 2004) (holding that a statute of limitations defense goes to the merits and hence is not an appropriate objection in the context of class certification); In re Monumental Life Ins. Co., 365 F.3d 408 (5th Cir. 2004) (finding that the issue of whether individual claims were barred by statute of limitations did not predominate over request for injunctive relief so as to preclude certification of class because a theory of constructive notice, which could be decided on class-wide basis). It was properly addressed when defendants' motion for summary judgment was denied. See Part III.E, supra.

There is substantial evidence concerning defendants' alleged conspiracy to hide the truth about "light" cigarettes, that there was a class-wide lack of notice before May 11, 2000, and that there was fraudulent concealment, a just cause for equitable tolling of the limitations period on a class-wide basis. See Part III.E.3, supra. Even if some members of the class would be barred at different times, the jury will be able to extrapolate the total damages with the aid of experts and statistical analysis.

This issue will present questions that can be decided based on generalized proof, including questions concerning what constitutes notice of injury and wide dissemination of the truth about the healthiness of "light" cigarettes in a case where defendant's alleged misrepresentations about "light" cigarettes were so broadly publicized for so many years in their extensive advertising campaign; where defendants claim that as recently as 1996 the National Cancer Institute (NCI) published a report that concluded that lower tar cigarettes reduce the risk of lung cancer (Def.'s Opp'n to Pls.' Mot. For Class Cert. at 18); and where Monograph 13, concluding that "light" cigarettes were not healthier, was published within the statute of limitations period. See Part III.E.3.b.ii, supra. It is a question for the jury to resolve upon a full review of the evidence. See Bingham v. Zolt, 66 F.3d 553, 558 (2d Cir. 1995) (jury asked to determine "when the estate actually knew of defendants' alleged wrongful acts"). If the jury finds that the statute of limitations bars part or all of some plaintiffs' claims, the court will then consider the application of the equitable principles described in Part III.E.3.d, supra.

The statute of limitations defense does not cause individual questions to predominate. See Craft, 2003 WL 23355745, at *12 ("[T]he statute of limitations does not present an individualized question of law or fact of sufficient magnitude, whether considered separately or in combination with other questions, to result in such predominance of individual questions over common questions as would warrant denial of class certification. A class definition is always subject to possible later change or even decertification as a case develops. . . .").

Should the statute of limitations question not prove to be amenable to generalized proof, the court retains the same mechanisms to manage individualized statute of limitations issues as it does for individualized reliance and damages issues.

E. Rule 23(g) Adequacy of Class Counsel

This inquiry is discussed under Part VII.B.4, supra.

F. RICO and Class Certification

One of the major functions of Rule 23 is to promote judicial economy. Another is to provide a means for individual private persons to sue in the interest of members of a larger group who would not be able to pursue those claims individually, a goal in line with those of RICO, a private attorney general statute. These primary goals, judicial efficiency and justice for small claimants, must be balanced against the interest in protecting the due process rights of absent class members and of defendants. Understanding the relationship and balance of these at times conflicting interests is essential to a proper appreciation of Rule 23's power and pitfalls. Any evaluation of the Rule 23 criteria must be conducted with its underlying merits-oriented goals in mind. Given the importance of the class action to society as a whole, the goals of Rule 23 should not be frustrated by a hypertechnical reading of its requirements.

In light of RICO and Rule 23's purposes, the instant case is well-suited for class certification. If their allegations are proven, plaintiffs and class members are private individuals who have been deliberately wronged by powerful corporations. Their claims are largely the same; all were allegedly defrauded as a result of a common fraudulent scheme developed and executed by the defendants over several decades in order to protect the viability of the cigarette industry and to maintain and increase profits. Any economic losses of individual plaintiffs, although significant to each, would be minimal in comparison with the costs of individual litigation against the multi-billion dollar enterprise alleged to have committed the claimed fraud.

G. Conclusion on Certification of Class

Plaintiffs meet the requirements of Rule 23(b)(3). They have demonstrated that there is more than enough merit to their case to justify the time and expense of a consolidated trial. The Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit would not require even that showing to approve certification. See Visa Check, 280 F.3d at 135 (on motion for certification, plaintiffs bear no burden to demonstrate merits of case); Caridad, 191 F.3d at 293 (same).

Aggregate litigation is the most appropriate way to resolve plaintiffs' claims. The class as defined by plaintiffs is certified. Plaintiffs may amend the class definition to include all claims arising up until the beginning of trial.

VIII. Admissibility of Expert Evidence

A. Motions Regarding Admissibility of Expert Reports

Plaintiffs and defendants each bring multiple motions for exclusion in limine of opposing expert witnesses, pursuant to Federal Rules of Evidence 104(a), 403, 701, and 702. On September 22, 2005, this court granted defendants' motion to exclude the expert testimony of Dr. Robbin Derry on the ground that testimony related to business ethics is not sufficiently related to the facts at issues in this case. See 2005 WL 2303823 (E.D.N.Y. Sept. 22, 2005). On September 27, 2005, this court granted defendants' motion to limit testimony by plaintiffs' expert John C. Beyer regarding his "disgorgement model" and his "price impact model"; admitted the testimony of plaintiff's expert Dr. Richard W. Pollay; and admitted in part the testimony of plaintiff's expert Dr. K. Michael Cummings. See 2005 WL 2401647 (E.D.N.Y. Sep. 29, 2005). The memorandum and order on Daubert issues dated September 29, 2005 is deemed embodied in this opinion. Set out in Part VIII.F, infra, are the names and backgrounds of the experts thus far relied on by the parties, with particular emphasis on those they challenge under Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. Because of the presentation of new data and analysis, as well as additional briefings, the court has readdressed and carefully reconsidered the reports of experts already ruled upon.

B. Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence

The key provisions are rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence, embodying the basic principles of Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharms., 509 U.S. 579 (1993). They are: Rule 702:

If scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge will assist the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue, a witness qualified as an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education, may testify thereto in the form of an opinion or otherwise, if (1) the testimony is based upon sufficient facts or data, (2) the testimony is the product of reliable principles and methods, and (3) the witness has applied the principles and methods reliably to the facts of the case.

Rule 703:

The facts or data in the particular case upon which an expert bases an opinion or inference may be those perceived by or made known to the expert at or before the hearing. If of a type reasonably relied upon by experts in the particular field in forming opinions or inferences upon the subject, the facts or data need not be admissible in evidence in order for the opinion or inference to be admitted. Facts or data that are otherwise inadmissible shall not be disclosed to the jury by the proponent of the opinion or inference unless the court determines that their probative value in assisting the jury to evaluate the expert's opinion substantially outweighs their prejudicial effect.

In some instances the experts are also fact witnesses, requiring satisfaction of Rule 701 of the Federal Rules of Evidence covering opinions of non-experts.

While a detailed analysis for such in limine matters is not required, a gatekeeping function is conferred upon the district court by the Rules of Evidence. Daubert, and the guidelines set forth in Rule 104(a) governing decisions on witness qualifications and admissibility of evidence, suggest a preliminary determination that the testimony of experts expected to testify is or is not helpful to the trier of fact, reliable from an evidentiary standpoint, and relevant to the issues in the case. The method for determining the reliability of such testimony is within the discretion of the district court. See Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137, 152, 119 S. Ct. 1167 (1999). It should make a suitable inquiry before reaching its determinations. Id. The inquiry may be a "flexible one," with the ultimate goal of assuring that proffered expert testimony is scientifically acceptable and relevant, as well as otherwise reliable from an evidentiary standpoint. See Daubert, 509 U.S. 594-95. Since "Rule 702 embodies a liberal standard of admissibility for expert opinions," Nimely v. City of New York, 414 F.3d 381, 395-396 (2d Cir. 2005), the assumption the court starts with is that a well qualified expert's testimony is admissible. "Vigorous cross-examination, presentation of contrary evidence, and careful instruction on the burden of proof are the traditional and appropriate means of attacking shaky but admissible evidence," and "are the appropriate safeguards where the basis of scientific testimony meets the standards of Rule 702." Daubert, 509 U.S. at 596. The party who presents an expert bears the burden of proving each element necessary to the admissibility of that expert's testimony and report. See Daubert, 509 U.S. at 592; Fed.R.Evid. 702 advisory committee note (2000).

The parties have agreed that the court should make its findings based solely on the submitted papers without an evidentiary hearing. See Tr. of Status Conference of July 31, 2006. Since much of the expert evidence, and the experts who are expected to give it, are the same or similar to that received at prior trials and proceedings in this court, reliance on their backgrounds, reports and depositions rather than full in-court testimonial hearings is appropriate.

C. Qualifications of Expert Witnesses

Witnesses may be qualified as experts if they possess specialized knowledge, skill, experience, or education. See Fed.R.Evid. 702. In keeping with the "liberal thrust" of the Federal Rules and their "general approach of relaxing the traditional barriers to 'opinion' testimony," Daubert, 509 U.S. at 588-89, the standard for qualifying expert witnesses is liberal. Assertions that the witness lacks particular educational or other experiential background, "go to the weight, not the admissibility, of [the] testimony." McCullock v. H.B. Fuller Co., 61 F.3d 1038, 1044 (2d Cir. 1995). If the expert has educational and experiential qualifications in a general field closely related to the subject matter in question, the court will not exclude the testimony solely on the ground that the witness lacks expertise in the specialized areas that are directly pertinent. See, e.g., Stagl v. Delta Airlines, Inc., 117 F.3d 76, 80 (2d Cir. 1997) (expert witness qualified when experience, knowledge, or training related to general area, not to specific question before trier of fact).

D. Helpfulness and Relevance

In deciding whether to allow the witness to give expert testimony the primary issue is whether the expertise provides the witness with the ability to assist the finder of fact in deciding the issues before it. This inquiry is subsumed within the broader "relevance" analysis governed by Rule 401. The Daubert court described this consideration as one of "fit," requiring a "valid scientific connection" between the subject matter of the expert's testimony and the factual issues to be determined by the jury. Daubert, 509 U.S. at 591-92. Evidence is relevant if it has "any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is of consequence to the determination of the action more probable or less probable than it would be without the evidence." Fed.R.Evid. 401. "[T]he Rules' basic standard of relevance . . . is a liberal one," Daubert, 509 U.S. at 587. The decision to admit or exclude on these grounds is within the trial court's discretion. See United States v. Aminy, 15 F.3d 258, 261 (2d Cir. 1994).

In inquiring into the potential helpfulness of the proffered expert testimony, the court decides whether it concerns matters requiring assistance to the kind of people expected to sit on the jury. See United States v. Mulder, 273 F.3d 91, 101-02 (2d Cir. 2001). The evidence or testimony must "assist the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue." Fed.R.Evid. 702. See also Daubert, 509 U.S. at 591.

Expert testimony should not merely reiterate arguments based on inferences that can be drawn by laypersons; those can properly be advanced by the parties in their summations. Neither should it include conclusory testimony that "undertakes to tell the jury what result to reach . . . [or] attempts to substitute the expert's judgment for the jury's." United States v. Duncan, 42 F.3d 97, 101 (2d Cir. 1994). Freely admitted is expert testimony that is likely to substantially assist the average person in understanding the case — even if it simply explains facts and evidence already in the record. See Mulder, 273 F.3d at 101-02.

After determining that the requirements of general helpfulness and specific "fit" are met, the court engages "in a balancing . . . to determine whether the probative value of the proffered evidence substantially outweighs its danger of unfair prejudice." United States v. Jakobetz, 955 F.2d 786, 794 (2d Cir. 1992); Fed.R.Evid. 403. Because "expert evidence can be both powerful and quite misleading," the court, in weighing possible prejudice against probative force under Rule 403, "exercises more control over experts than over lay witnesses." Daubert, 509 U.S. at 595. See also Nimely, 414 F.3d at 397 ("[T]he Supreme Court, echoed by members of our own court, has noted the uniquely important role that Rule 403 has to play in a district court's scrutiny of expert testimony, given the unique weight such evidence may have in a jury's deliberations."). In deciding possible probative value of the expert's proposed testimony against the potential for confusion or over-reliance by the jury, it cannot be assumed that a jury of this district "will be so dazzled or swayed as to ignore evidence suggesting that an experiment was improperly conducted or that testing procedures have not been established." Jakobetz, 955 F.2d at 797.

Defendants object to plaintiffs' experts' reliance on many of the scientific studies in Monograph 13 and elsewhere because these materials consider the effect of defendants' alleged fraud on all smokers of low tar products, not just those bearing the "lights" descriptor. Imperfect correlation is no bar to scientific evidence. With respect to surveys, for example:

A survey that provides information about a wholly irrelevant universe of respondents is itself irrelevant. Courts are likely to exclude the survey or accord it little weight. . . . More commonly, however, the sampling frame is either underinclusive or overinclusive relative to the target population.

Shari Seidman Diamond, "Reference Guide on Survey Research," in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (FJC, 2d ed. 2000), at 241. While evidence that pertains to a broader class than that represented by plaintiffs is not preferred, it may still be useful. See, e.g., Schieffelin Co. v. Jack Co. of Boca, Inc., 850 F. Supp. 232, 246 (S.D.N.Y. 1994) (using survey as evidence of trademark infringement, notwithstanding its overbreadth, because it was "more likely than not to shed some light" on the issue of confusion) (cited in Diamond, supra, at 242). Studies evaluating broadly the beliefs of low tar smokers generally are relevant to the beliefs of "light" smokers more specifically. See Diamond at 242 ("An overinclusive universe generally presents less of a problem in interpretation than does an underinclusive universe."). See also Fed.R.Evid. 401 ("'Relevant evidence' means evidence having any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is of consequence to the determination of the action more probable or less probable than it would be without the evidence.").

The jury's fact-finding and credibility-determining abilities — the skills that our legal system relies on juries to provide — can evaluate and integrate most expert testimony. A bent towards exclusion to permit the court to take the case away from the jury is frowned upon.

E. Reliability

The most challenging and controversial gatekeeping role, as set out in Daubert and elaborated in Kumho, is that of ascertaining the reliability of proffered testimony, or "whether the reasoning or methodology underlying the testimony is scientifically valid." Daubert, 509 U.S. at 592. This is partly because "[u]nlike an ordinary witness [governed by Rule 701], an expert is permitted wide latitude to offer opinions, including those that are not based on firsthand knowledge or observation." Daubert, 509 U.S. 590. The exception made for such experts "is premised on an assumption that the expert's opinion will have a reliable basis in the knowledge and experience of his discipline." Id.

The Daubert court supplied the following nonexhaustive guidelines for analysis of the reliability of expert testimony: (1) "whether it can be (and has been) tested"; (2) "whether the theory or technique has been subjected to peer review and publication"; (3) "the known or potential rate of error"; and (4) "general acceptance" within the scientific community. Daubert, 509 U.S. 593-94. These guidelines are not to be construed as a "definitive checklist." Id. at 593. The applicability of any one factor will depend "upon the particular circumstances of the particular case at issue." Kumho, 526 U.S. at 137.

While, preferably, the content of the expert's testimony will grow "naturally and directly out of research [the expert or others have] conducted independent of the litigation," Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 43 F.3d 1311, 1317 (9th Cir. 1995), testimony based on research conducted solely for litigation is admissible as long as the expert "employs in the courtroom the same level of intellectual rigor that characterizes the practice of an expert in the relevant field." Kumho, 526 U.S. at 152.

Of primary importance in determining reliability of expert testimony is the methodological soundness of the expert's study. See Liriano v. Hobart Corp., 949 F. Supp. 171, 177 (S.D.N.Y. 1996). Each step of the expert's analysis is examined, including "the facts on which the expert relies, the method by which the expert draws an opinion from those facts, and how the expert applies the facts and methods to the case at hand." Amorgianos v. National R. R. Passenger Corp., 303 F.3d 256, 267 (2d Cir, 2002). Ideally, the scientific methodology or technique will have been tested or the findings published and peer reviewed, see Daubert, 509 U.S. 592-93, but "[i]t might not be surprising in a particular case . . . that a claim made by a scientific witness has never been the subject of peer review, for the particular application at issue may never previously have interested any scientist." Kumho, 526 U.S. at 151.

To be considered is whether there is "a sufficiently rigorous analytical connection between [the expert's] methodology and the expert's conclusions," Nimely, 414 F.3d at 397, and whether the scientific principles and methods have been reliably applied by the expert to the facts of the case. Unfounded extrapolations not supported by, or sufficiently related to, scientific data or expertise should be rejected; opinion that "is connected to existing data only by the ipse dixit of the expert" need not be admitted. General Elec. Co. v. Joiner, 522 U.S. 136, 146, 118 S. Ct. 512 (1997). Expert opinions based on insufficient facts or data, or on unsupported suppositions is not acceptable. See Fed.R.Evid. 702(1). Anecdotal evidence and "generalized assumptions" are inadequate bases for an expert report. United States v. Tin Yat Chin, 371 F.3d 31, 40-41 (2d Cir. 2004).

Subjective methodology, as well as testimony that is insufficiently connected to the facts of the case, have been relied upon by appellate courts as grounds for rejection of expert testimony. See, e.g., O'Conner v. Commonwealth Edison Co., 13 F.3d 1090, 1105-07 (7th Cir. 1994); Guidroz-Brault v. Missouri Pacific R. R. Co., 254 F.3d 825, 831 (9th Cir. 2001). Finally, it is properly held that sound scientific methodology requires a scholar to make some effort to account for alternative explanations for the effect whose cause is at issue. See, e.g., Kudabeck v. Kroger Co., 338 F.3d 856, 860-61 (8th Cir. 2003); McCorvey v. Baxter Healthcare Corp., 298 F.3d 1253, 1256-57 (11th Cir. 2002).

The mere fact that an expert's testimony conflicts with the testimony of another expert or scientific study does not control admissibility. See Fed.R.Evid. 702 advisory committee note (2000) ("When a trial court, applying this amendment, rules that an expert's testimony is reliable, this does not necessarily mean that contradictory expert testimony is unreliable."). If two contradictory expert opinions meet the requisite threshold of reliability, it is the function of the factfinder, utilizing the "conventional devices" of "cross-examination, presentation of contrary evidence, and careful instruction on the burden of proof," to determine which is the more trustworthy and credible. Daubert, 509 U.S. at 596. It is worth noting in this respect that defendants' experts have a less demanding task, since they have no burden to produce models or methods of their own; they need only attack those of plaintiffs' experts. Contradiction is to be expected and is often unresolvable without trial.

When considering reliability factors under Rule 702 and Daubert, it is important to recall the Supreme Court's caution that the analytical focus should be on principles and methodology. See Liriano, 949 F. Supp. at 177. Expert testimony should not be rejected simply because the conclusions reached by the witness seem subjectively improbable. See Daubert, 509 U.S. at 594, 113 S.Ct. 2786.

It is critical that "doubts about whether an expert's testimony will be useful should generally be resolved in favor of admissibility unless there are strong factors such as time or surprise favoring exclusions." Jakobetz, 955 F.2d at 797. Any more rigorous approach would deny the jury's constitutional role.

No individual expert's proffered testimony in the instant case by itself presents a decisive analysis on the critical reliance and damage questions. Defendants, through their experts and in their briefs, charge that this failure to come up with "a number" requires dismissal of plaintiffs' claims. Yet legal standards of proof are not so demanding.

Daubert was designed to exclude "junk science." . . . The legal standard, after all, is preponderance of the evidence, i.e., more-probable-than-not, and that applies to causality as to any other element of a tort cause of action. Rule 702, a rule of threshold admissibility, should not be transformed into a rule for imposing a more exacting standard of causality than more-probable-than-not simply because scientific issues are involved.

In re Ephedra Prods. Liab. Litig., 393 F. Supp. 2d 181, 190, 193 (S.D.N.Y. 2005). See also id. at 193 ("Although th[e preponderance] standard may lead to what some scientists might consider an unacceptably high error rate in jury verdicts, the law has tolerated the jury error rate for centuries because it has not yet found a better way of adjudicating disputes"; a court should "not treat Daubert's dictum about scientific validity as authority for increasing the burden of proof imposed by substantive law").

In cases alleging economic harm, no less than those alleging physical injury, the test for allowing a plaintiff to recover . . . is not scientific certainty but legal sufficiency; if reasonable jurors could conclude from the expert testimony that [defendants] more likely than not caused [plaintiffs'] injur[ies], the fact that another jury might reach the opposite conclusion or that science would require more evidence before conclusively considering the causation question resolved is irrelevant.

Ferebee v. Chevron Chem. Co., 736 F.2d 1529, 1536 (D.C. Cir. 1984). See also Hodges v. Sec'y of Health Human Servs., 9 F.3d 958, 967 (Fed. Cir. 1993) ("Scientists as well as judges must understand the reality that the law requires a burden of proof, or confidence level, other than the 95 percent confidence level that is often used by scientists to reject the possibility that chance alone accounted for the observed differences.") (internal citations and quotation marks omitted).

Plaintiffs' proof is akin to a pointillist painting by Georges Seurat. When a juror stands back from the canvas and looks at the big picture, he or she may well discern clearly enough an industry allegedly based on fraud and coverup that has taken more than a half century to begin to admit its alleged subtle lies to the public designed to sell its product. Viewed in context, the proof of acts of defendants and the various experts' opinions permits a finding of damages to the class with sufficient precision to allow a jury award. See also Part III.D.3, supra.

F. Individual Experts' Reports

Taken up in order are first, the challenged plaintiffs' expert reports; second, the challenged defendants' expert reports, and third, those whose admissibility does not appear to have been seriously challenged. In the case of experts in the third category, the court has determined probable admissibility even without an opponent's objection. Emphasis is placed on the plaintiffs' experts since they bear the burden of proof.

By the memorandum and order of September 29, 2005, discovery was extended to permit defendants to evaluate the work of the following experts: Dr. John C. Beyer, Dr. John R. Hauser, Dr. Jeffrey E. Harris, Judith Wilkenfeld, Matthew L. Myers, Laurence Tribe, Katherine Kinsella, Robert Proctor, Richard Redfern, Dr. Paul Slovic, Dr. Joel Cohen (new materials), Dr. Marvin Goldberg, Dr. Stanley Presser, and others. Except as their testimony had been excluded on relevancy grounds, see 2005 WL 2293381, the court was not then in a position to render a Daubert opinion on their work. It was proposed to develop by depositions any objection to their testimony and reports according to a schedule developed by the magistrate judge. Id. That discovery has now taken place.

The order of September 29th also dealt with plaintiffs' motion to exclude testimony of a number of defendants' proposed experts who appear to be qualified and whose professional background should allow them, individually and in combination, to opine scientifically on cigarette "safety" — i.e., the amount of carcinogenic and other toxic substances released by cigarettes with less tar, and their effect on smokers. They were Dr. Kenneth A. Mundt, Ph.D., an epidemiologist; Dr. Lawrence S. Mayer, a statistician; Dr. William E. Wecker, a statistician; Dr. Jane Y. Lewis, a chemist; Dr. Kenneth F. Podraza, a chemist; Dr. Jeffery Gentry, a chemist; Dr. Andrew T. Mosberg, a toxicologist; Dr. Edward A. Robinson, a toxicologist; and Dr. Carr J. Smith, a toxicologist. See Mem. in Supp. of Pls.' Mot. to Excl. Exp. Test. that "Light" Cigs. are Safer than Reg. Cigs. 1-2 (Docket No. 691-2).

All of the scientific specialties represented by these experts employed by defendants bore on a critical factor in the case — the amount of tar and other noxious substances inhaled by cigarette smokers when smoking "light" cigarettes and the dangers they pose to the human body. While plaintiffs' experts and others in the public health community may differ with their conclusions, that is no reason to exclude under Daubert. That a person is an employee of a party, rather than an independent expert is no ground, in and of itself, to exclude under Rule 702.

Following an opportunity for further full discovery of all experts, a number of plaintiffs' experts were challenged in final Daubert briefs.

Even the lengthy excerpts included here do not do justice to the proffered reports. Except where indicated in discussion, the opinions of both plaintiffs' and defendants' experts are supported by internal documents, scientific research, and other appropriate materials.

Citations are generally omitted without comment. All emphasis is in the original. No effort has been made to conform typography in the reports to that of the opinion except where necessary to avoid confusion.

1. Challenges to Plaintiffs' Experts

a. John C. Beyer

Dr. John C. Beyer has filed a class certification report, a report on computation of damages, and an affidavit responding to defendants' motion to exclude his prospective testimony. Defendants' experts Kevin M. Murphy, Bruce C. Owen, and William Wecker have attacked his analysis. All three of these defense experts are qualified in their fields. See Parts VIII.3.o, 3.q, and 2.h, infra. Dr. Beyer's opinion is important in the case because it bears on the critical question of whether, even if there were a "lights" fraud, there is a reasonable method of computing economic damages.

He is President of Nathan Associates Inc., an economic and financial consulting firm established in 1946. It provides economic research and analysis to public and private clients in the United States and abroad. He has been associated with Nathan Associates as an economist for approximately 34 years. As part of his professional career he has been employed by the Ford Foundation and conducted research at the Brookings Institute. In addition to his consulting and research work, he is an Adjunct Professor at American University in Washington, D.C. He earned a degree of Bachelor of Arts from the University of the Pacific in 1962 and a degree of Doctor of Philosophy from Tufts University's Fletcher School in 1966. He has professional experience with the analysis of economic issues involving antitrust litigation, including matters concerning the structure, conduct, and performance of industries; the determination of economic impact on companies and individuals as a result of alleged market restraints; and the estimation of damages arising from such restraints. In several instances, his analyses have addressed the issue of whether generalized proof is available to show impact upon multiple plaintiffs and plaintiff classes, as well as the development of methodologies to assess damages on a class-wide basis. He submitted an affidavit in this litigation concerning economic issues pertaining to class certification. His extensive publications and affiliations support the conclusion that he is well qualified to testify in the instant case on relevant issues.

His amended report reads in part as follows and responds to the contentions of his critics:

If a conspiracy such as the one alleged here existed, then the market price for all cigarettes, including light cigarettes, would have been higher. As a result of the higher market price, all members of the proposed class would have been harmed in that they would have paid more for light cigarettes than otherwise would have been the case. My opinion on this matter is based, in part, on the fact that defendants priced light cigarettes the same as regular cigarettes, and that there was a national pricing strategy for lights. The effect of a fraud such as the one alleged here would have been to increase market demand for cigarettes and thus to cause the price that prevailed in the market to be higher than it otherwise would have been. As a result of the higher market price for cigarettes, all purchasers of light cigarettes would have paid a higher price. Further, there exist methodologies which allow me to identify the extent to which the market price of cigarettes was higher as a result of the alleged fraud. In light of the specific nature of the RlCO statute, I have further refined my damage estimates to include only light cigarette purchasers who relied on th: alleged fraud in smoking light cigarettes [as determined in the report of plaintiffs' expert, John R. Hauser.]. . . . I now provide damage estimates that vary across time (in five year intervals) during the class period. Moreover, I provide a range of damage estimates based on various lags of the knowledge variable [which accounts for the delay between when information about smoking risks is released to the public and when it is understood by laypersons]. And finally, I have adjusted my measure of damages to include only those light cigarette smokers who relied on the alleged fraud. . . . I have calculated using generally accepted economic principles, a range of class-wide damages of $43.8 billion to $56.6 billion using state-level data. [The measure of damages may be adjusted at the appropriate date to exclude from the calculations damages for those light-cigarette consumers who reside in states excluded from the class, if any.] Based on the revisions to my earlier damage estimates, I have calculated damages to members of the class of $22.8 billion using the profit disgorgement methodology. In both cases, these damages are before trebling.

II. Damage Estimates from the Revised Price Impact Model

I utilize a methodology that determined the effect of the alleged fraudulent behavior by defendants upon the market price for light cigarettes. I refer to this methodology as the "price impact model." The price impact model is a multiple regression model, which explains the role that several other variables play in determining the value of the single variable to be explained, which in this case is cigarette prices. In constructing the price impact model I attempt to control for all the factors that might affect cigarette prices. The theoretical justification for the price impact model lies in the effect that the alleged fraudulent behavior would have had on cigarette prices. To the extent that light cigarettes allayed the health concerns of smokers, the result would have been increased cigarette demand. The increase in total cigarette demand resulted in higher consumption of cigarettes than otherwise would have been the case, which resulted in higher prices paid by consumers of cigarettes, including consumers of light cigarettes. The price impact model identifies the extent to which prices of cigarettes were higher as a result of the alleged fraudulent behavior.

The price impact model properly controls for factors affecting price

The purpose of the price impact methodology is to determine how the introduction of light cigarettes and their effect on demand would have impacted cigarette prices. As I explained in my earlier damages report, by controlling for — or taking account of — all the relevant factors that affect the price of cigarettes except for the effect of the alleged conspiratorial behavior, the price impact model is able to isolate the effect that the conspiratorial fraudulent behavior had on cigarette prices. In developing the model, therefore, it is necessary to consider all factors that might affect cigarette prices. In revising my damage estimates, I have incorporated the observations of the Court and defendants' experts into the price impact model. I discuss each of these factors below, beginning with the variable to be explained, cigarette price.

Cigarette price is the dependant variable

In the price impact model, the variable to be explained (sometimes in regression analysis this is referred to as the "dependent" variable) is cigarette price. The cigarette price used in my model is the annual average statewide price of cigarettes at the retail level, including all taxes levied against cigarettes. I based my analysis on cigarette prices at the state level because there is considerable variation in state-level prices. Most academic authors have used state-level data in their analysis of cigarette demand or cigarette price, since state-level data makes it possible to test for the robustness of statistical results and to do appropriate sensitivity analysis of my model.

Explanatory variables: Cigarette consumption

In this model of cigarette prices, a critical variable that affects price is aggregate cigarette consumption, as determined in the cigarette market. Aggregate cigarette consumption, by its definition, subsumes in it all the behavioral changes among individual smokers that affect their own cigarette consumption. Therefore, the price impact model fully accounts for the impact of the light cigarettes fraud on factors such as smoking initiation rates, smoking quit rates, the effect of light cigarette consumption on smoking intensity, or other factors. It is not necessary to include these factors as separate variables in the price impact model because they are fully accounted for within the regression model through the measurement of aggregate cigarette consumption. As with the price of cigarettes, consumption is measured at the state level, to account for differences across states in consumption patterns that might affect the price level. In addition to state-level consumption patterns, however, aggregate consumption of cigarettes nationally in the United States was also included in the price impact model. Because the market for cigarettes in the United States is a national market, total U.S. consumption affects aggregate demand for cigarettes in the United States and potentially total demand. For both state consumption and national consumption of cigarettes, the lagged value of consumption is used.

Income

One factor that may affect cigarette consumption is personal income level in each state. Higher incomes make cigarettes more affordable to consumers. In order to control for this effect, the level of disposable personal income in each state was included in the price impact model. In addition, disposable personal income in the United States was also included, to control for the fact that the cigarette market is a national market.

Population

Over time, demand for cigarettes may increase because the population is rising. An increase in demand which raises consumption will result in higher prices, so it is necessary to control for this effect in the price-impact model. Since the model is estimated using data at the state-level, population changes are controlled for using state level population. However, just as total U.S. consumption and income may affect cigarette prices, total U.S. population is important as well. I include both state and national population in estimating the price-impact model.

Taxes

Cigarette prices are heavily influenced by taxes imposed by both the Federal Government and state governments. Since cigarette taxes have increased over time, failing to control for their effect on cigarette prices could result in an artificially high estimate of the overcharge arising from the alleged light cigarettes fraud. Both state-level taxes and Federal taxes on cigarettes are included in the price impact model.

Advertising expenditures

One factor which may affect both the demand for cigarettes and the cost of producing them is advertising expenditures. To the extent that advertising results in greater cigarette consumption, it will lead to higher cigarette prices. Likewise, if advertising raises the cost of producing cigarettes, it will result in higher prices. I include total advertising expenditures in my price impact model in order to control for these effects.

Costs of producing cigarettes

Economic theory holds that the price at which a firm is willing to supply a certain quantity of a good increases as the cost of producing that good increases. In the price impact model it is important to control for the cost of producing cigarettes, since this is one factor that affects their price. The revised cost index is based on the prices of flue-cured tobacco, paperboard, manmade fibers, and electricity; wages paid to nonsupervisory workers are included to account for labor costs.

The "knowledge impact" variable is a useful measure of information on health hazards

A report by the U.S. Surgeon General in 1989 explored the factors that go into the decision to begin or quit smoking, and found that knowledge of health hazards of smoking was one critical factor. The Surgeon General's report notes that the acquisition of knowledge about smoking, especially about the risks of smoking for health, may be difficult, and individuals may deny personal risks, especially young smokers, creating a lag between exposure to information and knowledge. A study of adolescent smoking found that study participants thought they would be "significantly less likely to get lung cancer, have a heart attack, die from a smoking-related disease, get a bad cough, [or] have trouble breathing . . ." from smoking light cigarettes. The Surgeon General's Report found that light cigarettes may he perceived as less hazardous. A similar study of a California education program found that as late as 1996, a large segment of smokers believed that light cigarettes were safer, and this confusion about safety may have hindered cessation. The Surgeon General's Report also found that there was a dramatic improvement in knowledge generally about health hazards by the mid-1980s and that major events, such as the original Surgeon General's report in 1964 had influenced smoking decisions. Likewise, knowledge may have been delayed or distorted by the use and the perception, for example, of the "light" label: The California Report specifically found that, ". . . the tobacco industry may be using the 'light' label to ameliorate the smokers' health concerns."

As a result of these and other factors, it may take years for smokers to respond to new information about the health hazards of smoking once it becomes publicly available. For example, studies have documented the considerable time it takes smokers to quit smoking, once they have determined to do so in response to new information about health hazards. The California study cited above noted that researchers have found it may take up to ten years for some smokers to assimilate smoking information and to quit. The California Report states, ". . . quitting smoking is a process that occurs over time." The American Legacy Foundation notes that it may take as many as seven to eight attempts before a smoker is successful at quitting.

In my original damages report, I constructed a "knowledge" variable to capture the impact of greater information about health hazards of smoking on cigarette consumption. The knowledge impact variable is determined from articles which contain the words "health," "hazard" and "smoking" in three major national newspapers: The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal. These newspapers were chosen because each was national in scope and each had electronic archives going back to the 1950s that were used to determine the number of articles in each year. As the graph in Figure 1 shows, knowledge of the health hazards of smoking increased sharply after the Surgeon General's warning in 1964.

In light of the Court's rulings as well as observations made by defendants' experts, I have reviewed my use of the knowledge impact variable in the price impact model. In the Courts' Daubert ruling, the Court suggested that there was inadequate support for the use of the eight[-year] lag of the knowledge impact variable. In addition, Dr. Murphy, Dr. Owen, and Dr. Wecker criticize my use of the eight[-year] lag of the knowledge impact variable. I have reexamined the relationship between the knowledge impact variable and cigarette consumption in light of the Court's opinion, Defendant's experts, and my own research. The purpose of the knowledge impact variable in the price impact analysis is to capture the impact of increasing knowledge of health risks of smoking on cigarette consumption. As discussed above, the majority of scientific evidence published in academic sources suggests that the response to new information on the health hazards of smoking was not instantaneous, but took place over time. My own research finds that the effect of knowledge of health hazards on cigarette consumption involves a lag of several years. Because cigarettes are an addictive product, there is some period of time between the acquisition of knowledge and changes in behavior (see above). Thus, it is not surprising that the effect of the knowledge impact variable on cigarette consumption would take place with a considerable lag.

In determining the appropriate range for the lag between the time at which smokers on average learned of the health hazards of smoking and the point at which that knowledge most greatly affected smoker behavior, I took an empirical approach. I developed a separate multiple regression model of cigarette consumption over the period 1955 to 1998. The purpose of this analysis was to determine how long it takes for knowledge of cigarette health hazards to have its greatest impact on cigarette consumption. In this model, total U.S. cigarette consumption was the dependent variable. Its behavior was explained using price, income, population and the value of consumption in the previous period. In addition, a variable to measure the effect of the alleged light cigarette conspiracy on consumption behavior was also included. Finally, the model was estimated using 15 different lags of the knowledge impact variable, to determine which lagged knowledge impact value was most effective at explaining price.

The results of the analysis used to determine the appropriate lag length for the knowledge impact variable . . . indicate that when the consumption model is estimated using lag [times of] seven through ten [years] of the knowledge impact variable, there is a valid and inverse relationship between the knowledge impact variable and cigarette consumption. That is, the statistical analysis indicates that as the more consumers change their behavior in response to increasing knowledge of health risks from smoking, cigarette consumption falls, but the impact of the increased knowledge takes seven or more years to show up in reduced cigarette consumption. The results also indicate that the eight[-year] lag of the knowledge impact variable results in the largest impact from knowledge on cigarette consumption. This model provides independent justification for the well-supported proposition — established independently in peer-reviewed articles — that it takes many years for knowledge of health hazards to have their maximum effect on cigarette consumption.

Dr. Owen's statement, "It would seem most natural to assume that the demand for cigarettes in any given year would best be explained by the knowledge impact available in the same year," indicates an ignorance of the published academic research on cigarette demand. Some academic researchers have found that the time lag may have been as much as ten years, consistent with my eight-year lag on the knowledge impact variable. Likewise, defendants' expert Dr. Murphy's statement that "the contemporaneous knowledge variable helps to explain price," appears at odds with his own published economic research. Indeed, Dr. Murphy has stated elsewhere, in an article published in a peer-reviewed economics journal ". . . adjustment by consumers to new information takes time. . . . Given substantial lags in consumer adjustment, it is unlikely that all of the long-run percentage effect on consumption will be felt in the first year of the release of new information."

Range of damage estimates

In the Court's Daubert ruling, the Court suggested that my previous estimate of the damages suffered by class members suffers from, ". . . an apparent error of unwarranted and excessive precision." In light of the Court's ruling, I have reviewed my damage estimates to consider a range of possible damage estimates based on the possibility that there are a range of values over which the effect of knowledge of the health hazards of smoking may have had its greatest effect on cigarette consumption. In particular, based on the results of the Consumption model. . . . I consider a range of values for the lag of the knowledge impact variable between 7 years and 10 years. The effect of the alleged light cigarettes fraud was to artificially inflate the price of all cigarettes in the market, including light cigarettes. Importantly, however, my analysis below seeks to estimate only the damages to smokers of light cigarettes who relied upon the fraudulent behavior in choosing to smoke lights.

Adjustments to damages

In my earlier report, I based the overcharge on a single indicator variable which measured the average impact over the entire class period from 1972 through 1998. To account for the Court's suggestions, I now allow the overcharge arising from the alleged light cigarettes fraud to vary over time. In this analysis, the effect of light cigarettes on price is measured using a set of indicator, or binary, variables which measure the overcharge during different phases of the class period. In particular, there are now (six) indicator variables for the periods 1972 through 1976, 1977 through 1981, 1982 through 1986, 1987 through 1991, 1992 through 1996, and 1997 through 1998.

The decision to estimate a different overcharge measure for each five year period reflects the fact that, because cigarette consumers change their smoking behavior only slowly (see above), it is likely that the impact of light cigarettes on smoker behavior was gradual, rather than sudden and abrupt. Because it took some time for light cigarettes to capture a significant market share, there was a period of time before light cigarettes could have their greatest impact on cigarette demand, and therefore cigarette price. One reason was that cigarette smokers initially found light cigarettes "flavorless." The choice of particular five-year periods used in determining the overcharge reflects the need to cover the entire period during which light cigarettes impacted the market, beginning in 1972. I chose to use five year intervals rather than longer or shorter intervals because five year intervals balance the need to allow the overcharge to change over time with the necessity in statistical modeling of not introducing too many variables. Choosing slightly different five year periods would not result in significantly different overcharge measures.

The Court found in its Daubert ruling that it is unlikely that all smokers relied upon the health claims of light cigarettes in deciding to smoke lights. In light of the Court's ruling, I have adjusted my damage estimates to reflect only those light cigarette smokers who relied upon the health claims in making their decision to smoke lights, Dr. John Hauser of MIT has performed an analysis to determine the percentage of light cigarette smokers who relied on the health claims of light cigarettes. His analysis determined that 90.1 percent of light cigarette smokers relied upon the health claims in deciding to smoke lights. I have been instructed by counsel to use this measure to adjust my damage estimates.

The overcharge based on price impact

The coefficients that summarize the overcharge for each phase of the class period, based on regressions using lags seven through ten of the knowledge impact variable, are reported in Table 2 [omitted]. The coefficients on these indicator variables are used to tell the amount by which all purchasers of cigarettes paid a higher price due to the alleged light cigarettes fraud for the relevant time period during the conspiracy. The measure of overcharge for each time period is then applied to sales of light cigarettes during that time period to find the amount by which light cigarette purchasers paid a higher price during the class period. These are aggregated across all time periods to find total damages. To find damages, I adjust this amount to reflect the percentage of light cigarettes smokers who relied upon the alleged fraud in their decision to smoke lights.

In order to calculate damages to purchasers of light cigarettes the overcharge was applied to the defendants' revenues from sales of light cigarettes during the class period. As before, it was necessary to estimate consumer expenditures on light cigarettes by defendants. This portion of my analysis is shown in Tables 3 through 9 [omitted]. Damages are calculated by applying the percentage overcharge to the consumer expenditures for light cigarettes in Table 3. These numbers have changed slightly based on unit sales data provided by defendants.

Tables 10 through 13 [omitted] show the amount by which purchasers of light cigarettes overpaid, based on regression results using lags seven through ten of the knowledge impact variable for each defendant and across all defendants. Damages to those light cigarette smokers who relied upon the alleged fraud in choosing to smoke light cigarettes are summarized in Table 14 [omitted]. In calculating damages, sales of light cigarettes were adjusted in order to reflect the amount by which sales were higher because of the alleged wrong-doing. Moreover, the coefficients on the indicator variables were adjusted to reflect a technical correction to the overcharge measure. Finally, I adjusted to show only the amount of the overcharge to those light smokers who relied upon the existence of the alleged fraud in deciding to smoke lights. These calculations yield a range of damage estimates for each defendant arising from sales of light cigarettes. The range of total damages for all defendants in all years was $43.8 billion to $56.6 billion.

* * * *

Updated Damages From The Profit Disgorgement Methodology

In my earlier reports, I developed and implemented a methodology to measure the damages to class members based on the profits earned by defendants from the sale of light cigarettes, which I referred to as the "profit disgorgement" methodology. This methodology relied upon the evidence that demand for light cigarettes owed to the fraudulent health claims of the defendants. If accurate information concerning the health implications of so-called light cigarettes had been presented to consumers there would have been no reason for them to have chosen to smoke light cigarettes rather than regular cigarettes. Therefore, but for the alleged conspiracy cigarette companies would have lost the entire profits earned from sales of light cigarettes. The exact methodology used to calculate profits earned from sales of light cigarettes was discussed in my earlier report on damages. I understand that for legal reasons the Profit Disgorgement methodology was excluded by the Court. However, in its Fluid Recovery ruling, the Court suggested that depriving "wrongdoers" from their ill-gotten gains was a reasonable use of class-action litigation. Therefore, I have included the Profit Disgorgement Methodology as one way of calculating damages. For the profit disgorgement analysis, I have adjusted the damages to reflect only those light cigarette smokers who relied upon the alleged fraud in smoking light cigarettes.

Defendants' expert Dr. Owen asserts that because some class members would have smoked regular cigarettes or ultra light cigarettes but for the existence of the alleged fraud, my profit disgorgement analysis should have taken account of offsetting profits that defendants might have earned from those sales. It is my understanding that the appropriate legal measure of ill-gotten gains under the RICO statute includes all profits earned from the sale of light cigarettes, regardless of whether defendants might have offset some of those ill-gotten gains with earnings from other cigarette sales.

Dr. Owen further asserts that I should have excluded income taxes paid by defendants to the Federal Government. It is my understanding that profit disgorgement should not exclude those taxes, since cigarette purchasers were harmed to the extent that their payments for light cigarettes implicitly included funds to pay corporate taxes. As a practical matter, it would be impossible at this stage of litigation, without substantially more input from defendants, to calculate their corporate income tax obligations if profits were reduced to reflect the loss of light cigarettes sales.

Dr. Owen further asserts that the estimates of damages under profit disgorgement should be reduced to reflect the cost of capital. It is possible that the interest expense attributable to capital purchases should be deducted from profits obtained from light cigarettes. We attempted to obtain reliable data on interest expense for domestic cigarette operations, or light cigarette operations for defendants from publicly available sources, but were unable to do so. If defendants supply data on their interest expenses, it can be deducted from the light cigarettes profits calculated below.

I have updated my estimates of profits earned from sales of light cigarettes based on information provided by defendants. Defendant Philip Morris provided information on total operating revenues and operating profits from domestic cigarette operations. . . . In addition, Philip Morris provided information on unit sales of light cigarettes which could be used to improve my estimates of the share of their operating profits from light cigarettes.

Defendant RJ Reynolds provided updated profit information for RJ Reynolds and Brown and Williamson for the period 1987 through 2001. . . . I have included these profit estimates in the profits calculated for the disgorgement methodology in Tables 15 and 16 [omitted].

Remaining defendants Lorillard and Liggett did not provide updated information on operating income or profits, and defendant RJ Reynolds did not provide information for American Tobacco (Tables A8 through A10) [omitted]. However, each defendant except Liggett did provide new information on unit sales of light cigarettes. . . . Defendants Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, and Brown and Williamson provided information on their total unit sales of all cigarettes. This new information on sales of cigarettes was used to estimate each defendant's share of light cigarettes in total cigarette sales. This number, in turn, is used to estimate the share of operating profits from sales of light cigarettes for those defendants who did not provide information on operating profits from light cigarettes.

Further Adjustments for Reliance Concerns

I have adjusted the damages arising from profit disgorgement to account for the fact that not all consumers of light cigarettes relied upon the implicit health claim in deciding to smoke light cigarettes. As above, I base my adjustment on the work of Dr. John Hauser of MIT, who found that 90.1 percent of light smokers relied on the health claims in smoking light cigarettes. These adjustments are reflected in the damages presented in Table 16 [omitted].

Based upon the new information provided by defendants, and improved estimates made possible by that data, profits earned from sales of light cigarettes to those light cigarette smokers who relied upon the alleged fraud in choosing to smoke light cigarettes is now estimated to be $22.8 billion. These are the damages owed to plaintiffs under the profit disgorgement methodology.

* * * *

CONCLUSIONS

I have revised my estimates of damages to class members who relied upon the alleged fraud based on two methodologies developed in my earlier report. I have accounted for numerous comments of the damage estimates made by defendants' experts. In response to the Court's rulings on several motions, I now provide a range of possible damage estimates and I allow for the possibility that the impact of the alleged light cigarettes fraud may vary over time. I also adjust damage estimates to reflect injury only to those smokers who relied on the allegedly fraudulent health claims. With the price impact methodology I have calculated a range of class-wide damages of $43.8 billion to $56.6 billion. I have determined damages arising from the alleged conspiracy in this matter of $22.8 billion using the profit disgorgement methodology.

Defendants originally moved to exclude the testimony of Dr. Beyer. It was contended that his "price impact model" and his "profits disgorgement model" fail to meet Daubert requirements.

The profits disgorgement model was excluded by the order of September 29, 2005. See 2005 WL 2401647. As noted in an earlier memorandum and order granting defendants' motion to dismiss claims for equitable relief, disgorgement is not an appropriate remedy in this case. See 2005 WL 2303821. Under the disgorgement theory, the profits made on light cigarettes would be used to support a claim for overcharges. This theory was ruled to be such an indirect indicator of excess price that it was not sufficiently probative to permit admission as an element of damages. Moreover, focusing on profits might tend to be unduly prejudicial under Rule 403 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. The motion to exclude the profit disgorgement model was granted.

The price impact model was not ruled irrelevant, but it was temporarily excluded in its then form. The following assumptions upon which the model depended were not supported: 1) that everyone who purchased "light" cigarettes did so in reliance on the alleged fraud that they were safer and 2) that it takes eight years for knowledge concerning the health risks of smoking to affect consumer behavior — a result that, according to defendants, caused the model to produce the highest damages possible. The first is inconsistent with common sense and the evidence generally: all consumers do not react in the same way. The second had no survey or other acceptable data to support it. Plaintiffs' argument to the contrary was not persuasive.

This ruling did not preclude making "assumptions" of a different time lag or of averages, so long as the assumptions had an adequate basis in evidence or theory. The opinion in its then form also suffered from unwarranted and excessive precision. In matters of this kind a range of possible reasonable conclusions is often all that can be obtained. See, e.g., Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Mouton and Joel E. Cohen, Forecasting Product Liability Claims, Epidemiology and Modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case, 89 ff. (2003) (discussing uncertainty in forecasts based on indirect estimates of asbestos exposure); id. xix (the "models and methods" described have "applicability beyond product liability"). The court noted that, "Should the expert revise his opinion to take a more realistic account of variables and supply a reasonable basis for a trier's evaluating where within a spectrum of possibilities the "lag" lies, the court will reconsider the Daubert issue." 2005 WL 2401647, at *4. The court was aware that Dr. Beyer's past work has been criticized by other courts and academics. See Mem. in Supp. of Defs.' Mot. to Excl. Test. of Dr. Beyer 1-2.

Possible lack of credibility is not a sufficient basis for a decision to exclude. See Pls.' Mem. in Opp'n to Mot. to Excl. Test. of Dr. Beyer (citing many cases in which his testimony was accepted) (Docket No. 703). This witness was not precluded from rebutting defendants' expert reports within the scope of his professional training and accomplishments as an economist. See Expert Report of John C. Beyer, Ph. D., Regarding Class-Wide Damages and Damage Methodologies 1-2 and App. A. His general experience and competence as an expert is not challengeable on the facts of his background.

Upon consideration of the materials now relied upon by the witness, his amended report which takes account of defendants' objections, is admissible under Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

The analysis of defense experts will permit the jury to determine whether Dr. Beyer has sufficiently met their objections so as to allow them to lend credence to his report. The methods of statistical analysis used by Dr. Beyer are acceptable. Whether he utilized them correctly — which defendants deny — is a disputable matter a jury can decide.

The proposed testimony of John C. Beyer and his supporting amended report meet the standards of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

b. David M. Burns

Professor David M. Burns is a medical doctor, professor of medicine and professor of family and preventive medicine at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine. He is currently licensed to practice medicine in the State of California, and is board certified in Internal Medicine and Pulmonary Medicine, with a certificate of special competence in Critical Care Medicine. He received his doctorate in medicine at Harvard Medical School in 1972. He trained in Internal Medicine on the Harvard Medical Service at Boston City Hospital from 1972 through 1974 and in Pulmonary Medicine at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine from 1976 through 1979. He was medical officer for the United States National Clearinghouse for Smoking and Health at the Centers for Disease Control of the U.S. Public Health Service. His responsibilities at that time included the preparation of the 1975 United States Surgeon General's Report on the Health Consequences of Smoking and editing the 1976 Surgeon General's report. He has been an author, editor, or reviewer for each of the annual reports of the United States Surgeon General on the Health Consequences of Smoking. Specifically, he authored multiple chapters in the 1979 report. He was Consulting Scientific Editor from 1980 through 1983, and from 1984 through 1986 he was the Senior Scientific Editor for these reports. Since that time, he has been a Senior Reviewer for each of the reports including the "Health Consequences of Smoking: Addiction" in 1988, "Health Consequences of Smoking: Twenty-Five Years of Progress" in 1989; "Health Benefits of Smoking Cessation" in 1990, "Preventing Tobacco Use Among Young People" in 1994, "Tobacco Use Among U.S. Racial/Ethnic Minority Groups" in 1998, "Reducing Tobacco Use" in 2000, "Women and Smoking" in 2001, and "The Health Consequences of Smoking" in 2004.

Dr. Burns was Senior Scientific Editor and contributing author for a series of tobacco control monographs for the National Cancer Institute, including Monograph 13, which was published in conjunction with the United States Department of Health and Human Services and the National Institutes of Health. He co-authored Chapters 1 and 4 of that publication. In addition, he has been a consultant to the National Cancer Institute and served on the Policy Advisory Committee for the COMMIT trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute. He has written extensively on the disease consequences of smoking, including authoring a chapter titled "Nicotine Addiction" in Harrison's Principles of Internal Medicine. He consulted with the Canadian government and the World Health Organization on smoking and health-related issues, specifically including consideration of the propriety of using the term "Lights" as a cigarette product descriptor.

The extensive report of Dr. Burns includes an analysis of publications bearing on smoking risks; general and scientific knowledge of the effect of smoking on health, including lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and obstructive pulmonary disease; the history of tobacco use in the United States; the purported health benefits of so-called "low tar yield" products; knowledge of the actual yields to smokers of "light" cigarettes; the alleged deceptions of the cigarette manufacturers; the lack of disease risks in smoking "lights"; and the higher rate of smoking and disease caused by defendants' exploitation of "lights." His report concludes:

Based on my training, experience and review of changes in cigarette smoking based on the actions of the tobacco companies, it is clear that the misconduct of the tobacco industry in denying the disease risks caused by smoking, conspiring not to do biologic testing or to compete by developing safer cigarettes, blocking appropriate public health efforts to reduce tobacco related disease, and deceptively marketing filtered and "lower yield" cigarettes as "lights," or as safer cigarettes, has led to substantially higher rates of cigarette consumption than would have occurred absent these actions. This excess consumption has resulted in substantial excess rates of disease, a result which would have not occurred absent these actions by the tobacco industry. All cigarettes, including those sold as "lights", are dangerous when used as directed by the manufacturers. The "light" cigarettes that are and have been manufactured and sold in the United States contain toxic and carcinogenic compounds sufficient to cause the diseases listed in above and also contain levels of nicotine sufficient to sustain addiction.

Defendants strongly oppose introduction of Dr. Burns's report or testimony. David M. Burns is, however, fully qualified and meets the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. He will not be permitted to testify that defendants lied, but he may contrast what was known and what was suggested to the public by defendants, leaving to the jury the question of fraud.

c. Joel B. Cohen

Professor Joel B. Cohen currently serves as Distinguished Service Professor of Marketing and Adjunct Professor of Anthropology at the University of Florida, a position held since 1988. He was chairman of the Marketing Department at the University of Florida from 1974 until 1983 and created the Center for Consumer Research in 1975. From 1972-74, he was Vice President and Director of Social Science Research at National Analysts, a major survey behavior organization which was part of consultant firm Booz, Allen Hamilton. Prior to that he was a tenured member of the marketing faculty at the University of Illinois.

He has been president of the Association for Consumer Research, a member of the American Psychological Association, editor of the Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, and a member of the editorial boards of the Journal of Consumer Research and the Journal of Marketing. He also served as a reviewer for a number of psychology and marketing journals and assessed the quality of manuscripts submitted for national conference presentations in these two fields.

His publications include a number of invited chapters including those in the Annual Review of Psychology, The Handbook of Consumer Behavior, Affect and Social Behavior, and Social Marketing: Theoretical and Practical Perspectives. His research on psychology processes in attitude formation and judgment, cognitive dissonance, affect, personality, and interpersonal influences appear in a number of journals including the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, and a number of edited volumes.

He has served as a consultant on advertising, marketing and research design to the Federal Trade Commission on many occasions since 1972, participating in many regulatory actions. In the course of that work and other professional activities, he reviewed hundreds of marketing and advertising plans and studies. He also served as a consultant to the National Academy of Sciences Panel on the Impact of Drug Use and Misuse and advised the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse an Alcoholism on mass media approaches to alcohol abuse prevention. His articles on these public policy issues have appeared in the American Journal of Public Health, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, and a number of edited volumes.

He has extensive knowledge of the cigarette industry, partially through involvement in a number of FTC activities. Most recently he served as the FTC's expert on marketing, advertising, and consumer behavior in their investigation and case against R. J. Reynolds for their, so called, "Joe Camel" campaign. He was a principal plaintiffs' witness and consultant in a number of important cigarette cases, several dealing specifically with "Light" cigarettes. On behalf of the President's Cancer Panel, he conducted a national probability study of smokers' understanding of advertised tar numbers, culminating in an American Journal of Public Health lead article, Smokers' knowledge and understanding of FTC tar numbers: Health policy implications, published in 1996. This article is referred to in several chapters of Monograph 13, for which he also served as peer reviewer. His previous work on cigarette marketing and advertising issues is reflected in his report to the Federal Trade Commission on information processing issues involved in communicating cigarette warning information to smokers and subsequent invited testimony to the United States Senate Commerce Committee and the United States House of Representatives ("The Protect Our Children from Cigarettes Act of 1989"). He also served as a peer reviewer for a number of government-sponsored reports on smoking starting with the 1989 Surgeon General's Report. He has written a number of other articles relating to cigarettes. Further details of his curriculum vita support the conclusion that Professor Cohen is skilled in fields relevant to this case.

His opinion is summarized as follows:

It is my opinion, to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty that the implicit health reassurance representation in the term "Lights" (as that term is used as a cigarette brand descriptor) was universally understood by all smokers of so-called "Lights" cigarettes. In addition, the implicit health representation in the term "Lights" contributed to the purchase decision for all cigarette purchasers of "Lights" cigarettes. Given the numerous cigarette company documents that attest to the overriding importance of health reassurance in marketing "Lights" cigarettes, it is reasonable to conclude that the health reassurance representation implicit in the term "Lights" carried substantial weight. Further, it is my opinion that the tobacco companies in this case intentionally developed, launched and marketed "Lights" cigarettes in an effort to reduce smokers' health concerns as well as to deter smokers from quitting.

His conclusion is:

My analysis leads me to two conclusions: (1) If people smoke a "Light" cigarette — as all members of the class do — one of the material reasons must be a promised health benefit, and (2) In making any decision between a "Light" and a full flavored cigarette, promised health benefits must play a material role.

My rationale for both of the above is based on: (1) a well-recognized field of forces/bundle of benefits analysis that establishes the universal "positivity" of health reassurances and hence the direction of influence for this promised benefit, (2) cognitive dissonance theory that supports an increased magnitude for this directional factor in order to reduce smokers' dissonance which is further intensified for those who believe it is difficult for them to quit and/or who experience guilt and negative affect about smoking, (3) the fact that everyone purchasing a "Light" cigarette sees this term on the package and is, therefore, aware of the promised health benefit, and, (4) the fact that "Light" is universally understood to mean lower or lowered tar and nicotine.

"New" smokers who select a "Light" cigarette as well as smokers who switch to a "Light" cigarette, therefore, would never knowingly choose a "false Light" cigarette over a "true Light" cigarette because the "true Light" cigarette will always have one material benefit that the "false Light" cigarette does not have. Hence, the bundle of benefit is greater — so product utility is higher — for the "true Light" cigarette.

In addition, "taste" (as distinct from it being corroboration of lower impact/less tar and nicotine, and hence "healthier") cannot be a key factor in any decision to exit the full flavor category and to smoke a "Light" cigarette since all studies show that smokers view this choice as a tradeoff between better taste and lower tar and nicotine. Taste is a factor in within-category brand decisions, once the primary decision to smoke a "Light" cigarette has been made. Taste preference can also migrate to the "Lights" cigarette, once the initial choice is made for health reasons, based upon habituation, psychological commitment to that decision and adjustments in smoking behavior that render "full flavor" cigarettes unacceptable.

Defendants' brief and documents supporting their Daubert motion to exclude the testimony of Dr. Cohen are based upon three arguments:

1. His opinions were created for litigation, have never been published or peer-reviewed, and are not supported by any expert in the field.

2. His opinions have not been tested and are not testable.

3. His cognitive dissonance assertion does not fit the facts of the case.

The first and second points are not convincing. Dr. Cohen's extensive supporting documents and wide experience in marketing and tobacco matters meet the requirements of Rules 401, 702, and 703. The opinions on these points will be helpful to a jury, even if the jury rejects them in accepting contrary opinions.

The third point is troublesome. In effect, Dr. Cohen is opining that everyone who smoked "light" cigarettes believed they were safer than traditional cigarettes, which contributed to the purchase of all light cigarettes in the last 30 years. The court has, at various hearings, indicated its skepticism of such claims of universality. See, e.g., Defs.' Mem. of June 9, 2006, pp 1 — 2 (collecting these).

The opinion need not be accepted in whole by the jury. See Girden v. Sandals Int'l., 262 F.3d 195, 204 (2d Cir. 2001) ("[J]urors have the latitude to analyze the evidence in a case, to accept part of it and to reject part of it, and to draw any inferences from the testimony, exhibits, and circumstances that they deem reasonable."). It supports the position that the advertising programs of defendants and their use of the "lights" descriptor affected purchases by many smokers. How many is a decision that the jury can rationally reach after cross-examination of this witness and consideration of opposing experts.

Dr. Joel Cohen's testimony and report are admissible under Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. See also Price, Appendix C at ¶¶ 28, 30, infra (finding Dr. Cohen credible).

d. K. Michael Cummings

Dr. K. Michael Cummings' opinion was challenged by defendants in a motion to partially exclude. Following further discovery, they renew the motion.

Dr. Cummings is Chairman and a cancer research scientist in the Department of Health Behavior at the Roswell Park Cancer Institute and Director of the Tobacco Cessation Center of the institute. He is an Associate Research Professor of the Department of Experimental Pathology and Epidemiology at State University of New York at Buffalo, and a Professor of the Department of Social and Preventive Medicine at that university. His Ph.D. is in Health Behavior from the University of Michigan. He has had an extensive leading role in professional editorial boards and as a reviewer in leading journals. He has received many awards for his work. He has had 40 research grants and contracts, many in the field of smoking, and authored over 200 publications. He has given testimony and depositions in other tobacco cases.

In the instant case, he interviewed the named plaintiffs. Dr. Cummings is prepared to testify to two opinions:

1. The named class members share common characteristics of their smoking behavior and beliefs about "light" cigarettes among themselves and with smokers of "light" cigarettes in the general population; and

2. The actions of cigarette manufacturers have contributed to smokers' misunderstandings about "light" cigarettes.

He opines as follows:

[D]espite the varied backgrounds and geographical locations of the named class members they shared common characteristics of their smoking behavior and beliefs about cigarettes with smokers of light cigarettes in the general population. These common characteristics include:

Starting to smoke at a young age

All of the named class members I interviewed began smoking before age 25, most started smoking before age 18. The surveys I've conducted and my review of the scientific literature and internal industry documents show that nearly all those who do smoke report beginning regular smoking before the age of 25. In fact, for any cross section of adults who smoke daily, approximately 90% report their first use of cigarettes before age 18.

Not thinking about health consequences when first starting to smoke

None of the named class members I interviewed said that they were thinking about the possibility of nicotine addiction when they first began smoking. Paul Slovic in his research on adolescent risk assessment of smoking found that a "high percentage of adolescent smokers see no health risk from smoking the next cigarette or from smoking regularly for a few years." My review of the scientific literature and industry documents shows that it is possible to get addicted to nicotine with just a few cigarettes and that young smokers don't often appreciate the lifelong consequences of getting addicted to cigarettes.

Regret about ever starting to smoke

The majority of people who smoke light cigarettes regret their decision to start smoking and smoke because they are addicted to nicotine. Regret about the decision to start smoking was expressed by all of the named class members I interviewed and is a finding consistent with published data based on a representative sample of adult smokers in the United States. In a recent paper . . . over 90% of smokers in the United States said they regretted their decision to smoke. Industry documents also support that smokers often regret their decision to start smoking and smoke because they are addicted to nicotine. . . .

Belief that filtered cigarettes are safer than unfiltered cigarettes

Today, approximately 95% of the cigarettes sold in the U.S. have a filter. All light cigarettes are filtered. All light cigarette smokers in my surveys reported smoking a filtered cigarette. All of the class members I interviewed thought a filtered cigarette was safer than an unfiltered one a finding that is consistent with my 2001 nationwide survey of adult smokers. Based on my research on brand switching it is rare to identify a smoker who switches from a filtered to an unfiltered cigarette brand. In the few cases identified, it is almost always for economic reasons with smokers switching to roll-your-own cigarettes; however, some of the roll-your-own cigarettes include kits with filters that can be added. None of the class members who were current smokers that I interviewed would consider switching to an unfiltered cigarette.

Belief that "light" cigarettes expose the user to less bad stuff in the smoke

All of the named class members I interviewed expressed the belief that the adjective light as used in advertising for "light cigarettes" implied getting less stuff such as less tar, less nicotine, less taste, and less risk of disease. . . .

Belief that "light" cigarettes are an excuse to delay quitting smoking

All of the named class members who reported switching to a light cigarette did so because they thought they would get less tar and less nicotine, and thus lowering their chances from getting sick from smoking. The misguided belief that a light cigarette is less risky is a deterrent to smoking cessation since concern about health consequences is an important factor in motivating smoking cessation. Studies show that switching to so called lower tar products does not increase quit rates. Industry documents talk openly about marketing new cigarette brands to "alleviate smokers' guilt and reduce their desire to quit." A common thread through much of the advertising and marketing of lower tar cigarette brands over the past 50 years has been the promise of preserving taste satisfaction, while simultaneously reducing perception of cigarette strength. Cigarette manufacturers recognized that product line extensions, such as Marlboro Lights, had the advantage of being perceived as more flavorful due to the taste reputation of its "parent" brand. However, cigarette manufacturers also recognized that the motivation for a smoker choosing a "light" cigarette was because of the belief that the cigarette would be lower in tar and therefore less risky to smoke. Since most smokers quite smoking because of concerns about health, if one erroneously thought that smoking a light cigarette was a little safer this would serve as a deterrent to quitting. Internal industry documents shows that the marketing of light cigarettes was directed to attract smokers who were increasingly concerned about their health precisely because they worried that these individual might quite smoking.

Recognition of "light" as compared to "full-flavored" cigarette brands

My review of light cigarette product packaging reveals that light cigarettes tended to be lighter and brighter colored packages and to use white tipping paper for the filter wrap. All of the named class members who I interviewed were able to differentiate light and non-light cigarette brands that they had smoked during their lifetime. All of the named class members acknowledged that light cigarette brands use the word "light" in the brand name, and that light cigarette brands packaged in lighter brighter colored packaging compared to full-flavored cigarettes. All of the class members knew that one way to differentiate a light and non-light cigarette was the color of the tipping paper used, with white tipping paper used more commonly with light compared to full-flavored cigarettes. In other words, smokers seems to have a pretty strong awareness of ways that cigarette marketers communicate to them about whether a cigarette is light or full-flavored cigarettes. While smokers assume that light cigarettes are lower in tar and nicotine delivery compared to a full-flavored cigarette, they are not able to easily recall the exact tar and nicotine levels advertised on their packs or in advertising for their brand. In other words, the advertised tar and nicotine numbers does not appear to be the primary means by which cigarettes are recognized as light or full-flavored.

Unsophisticated understanding of how cigarette design influences smoking behavior

None of the named class members I interviewed knew what the term "smoker compensation" meant; all reported a low level of awareness of cigarette smoke constituents and lacked awareness of tar and nicotine numbers in the cigarette brands they smoked. [My 2004] survey also revealed a low level of understanding among adult smokers about how cigarette design influences smoking behavior. For example, the majority of smokers surveyed express the belief that one had to smoke more light cigarettes to get the same amount of tar as someone smoking a full-flavored cigarette. This same survey revealed that smokers of light cigarette brands are mostly unaware of filter vents in the cigarettes they smoked. Lack of awareness of filter vents is important because smokers may unknowingly take bigger deeper puffs on cigarettes with vented filters and/or block the filter vents during smoking, thus defeating the lower tar benefit presumably gained by ventilation. Based upon my interviews with the named class members, my direct interactions with thousands of smokers, my review of the published scientific literature, and my own research with smokers, it is my opinion that light smokers as a group have an unsophisticated knowledge of smoke constituents, cigarette tar and nicotine numbers, and how cigarette design features might influence how they smoke.

THE ACTIONS OF CIGARETTE MANUFACTURERS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SMOKERS' MISUNDERSTANDING ABOUT LIGHT CIGARETTES

This opinion is based upon my research of internal industry documents that reveals that the cigarette companies lied to smokers about manipulating nicotine in cigarettes, and misled smokers about the health risks of smoking, nicotine addiction, and their commitment to put the smokers' health above their profits.

Cigarette companies have lied about manipulating nicotine in cigarettes

The tobacco industry has publicly denied that they intentionally manipulate nicotine in cigarettes. For example, in a 1994 advertisement, Philip Morris stated:

"Philip Morris does not 'manipulate' nicotine levels."

Cigarette manufacturers control and manipulate nicotine delivered to the smokers through a variety of means including use of reconstituted tobacco, filtration, filter ventilation, the use of additives, and the ratio of tobacco shred size to tobacco weight per cigarette. Internal industry documents reveal efforts to determine the minimum and optimum levels of nicotine for their products.

Based upon my own research and my analysis of internal industry documents it is my opinion that cigarette manufacturers do manipulate nicotine levels in their products.

The cigarette companies have misled smokers about health risks

Based upon my interviews with the named class members, my direct interaction with thousands of smokers, my review of the published scientific literature, and my own research with smokers, it is my opinion that light smokers as a group have been misled about the health risks of smoking. None of the named class members I interviewed knew what the term "smoker compensation" meant; the majority of smokers believe that one had to smoke more light cigarettes to get the same amount of tar as someone smoking a full-flavored cigarette, which is not true. A recent study by Hamilton et al. found that smokers perceive advertisements for light cigarettes as conveying positive messages about health and safety.

Cigarette manufacturers have only recently acknowledged the medical and scientific consensus that smoking causes serious diseases such as lung cancer, respiratory disease and heart disease. Since the early 1950's, cigarette manufacturers have told smokers that their products were not injurious to health. Industry documents reveal that the tobacco industry conspired to mislead smokers about health risks associated with smoking in general, both through their own statements and those of the Tobacco Industry Research Committee and its successor, the Council for Tobacco Research and the Tobacco Institute.

The past public statements of the tobacco industry about the health risks of smoking, nicotine addition, and their commitment to put the smokers' health above their profits are in sharp contrast to the private views expressed by many their own scientists. The tobacco documents reveal that many scientists within the tobacco industry acknowledged as early as the 1950's that cigarette smoking was unsafe. The sincerity of the industry's promise to support research to find out if smoking was harmful to health and to disclose information about the health effects of smoking can also be questioned based upon the industry's own documents which reveal: 1) skepticism about the scientific value of the smoking and health research program established by the industry and 2) evidence that research findings implicating smoking as a heath problem were often not published or disclosed outside the industry.

Cigarette manufacturers marketed so-called light cigarette brands recognizing that smokers would consider them safer than conventional cigarettes, but knowing full well that light cigarettes offered little advantage to the smoker over regular filtered cigarettes. Between 1971 and 2003 Philip Morris advertised that Marlboro Lights were "lowered in tar and nicotine." However, this statement is not true. Research by Philip Morris revealed that the amount of tar delivered to the smoker was essentially the same between Marlboro Lights and Marlboro Reds. Unknown to the public is the observation made by cigarette company scientists that revealed that high filter dilution cigarettes scored higher on the Salmonella/microsome mutation assay, compared to full-flavor low dilution filtered cigarettes.

(Emphasis in original.)

Defendants concede that Dr. Cummings, who was trained in public health, may testify on smokers' behavior and attitudes. They object to his opinion that defendants have "lied" or "misled" and to the introduction of what they characterize as a non-scientific survey of named plaintiffs.

Except as indicated below, the opinions of Dr. Cummings are supported by the record he relies upon and meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. References to "lies" and "misleading" by defendants will be stricken since the jury can decide the truthfulness of defendants' claims without this expert. Dr. Cummings may, however, state how smokers would be expected to react to, or rely upon, statements of defendants. His conclusion that cigarette manufacturers "manipulate" nicotine in cigarettes is not admissible, but he may testify that they control the nicotine the smoker will receive. He may testify about implicit and explicit statements about the health risks of cigarettes by defendants and the actual health risks. He may not testify that defendants themselves did not believe these claims.

He may testify to his interviews with named plaintiffs if he, or other experts, testify that this is an appropriate way to obtain the information sought. If defendants wish they may have an instruction that what the interviewees in this limited "survey" said may not be depended upon as true or as representing universal beliefs, but is being admitted only to show part of the basis of Dr. Cummings' opinions.

Subject to the above limitations, K. Michael Cummings may testify pursuant to Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

e. Michael J. Dennis

Michael J. Dennis, Ph.D., is the author of a report upon which he based his testimony in the 2003 Illinois state "Miles" case formally known as Price et al v. Philip Morris. See Appendix C, infra. His role in the Price case was to provide survey research and expert witness services to measure the attitudes, perceptions, and valuations of Marlboro Light cigarette smokers. He designed the survey questionnaire that was used for the survey, analyzed the survey data, wrote the expert report detailing the study procedures and results, and designed the exhibits used in the Price trial during his testimony. His expert report and survey research was used by Dr. Jeffrey Harris as the basis for his own testimony and reports in the Price case. He was deposed twice in the Price case and provided testimony in court once.

At the time of the preparation of the report for the Price case, he was a Vice President and Managing Director for Government and Academic Research for Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California. He joined Knowledge Networks in February 2000 as the Vice President for Operations. During ten months in this position he was responsible for survey research for the company and designed and implemented some twenty surveys in the areas of health, social public policy, and consumer research. He reviewed and provided design assistance for approximately a dozen market research surveys that were being conducted by his colleagues. From 2001 to present, he has managed all research conducted by Knowledge Networks on behalf of federally funded principal investigators who conduct health, economic, social, and political research. He has been personally involved in the design and implementation of over a hundred statistical surveys in the last four years, and over fifty such surveys prior to the work he conducted for the Price case. Among federal sponsors of his statistical surveys are the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Prior to joining Knowledge Networks, he was a senior Scientist at Abt Associates, Inc., a social science consulting firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. While there, he managed several large-scale federal surveys and was Associate Project Director for the National Immunization Survey. At the time, this survey was the largest federally funded telephone survey conducted for the government. In his seven years at Abt Associates, he managed statistical surveys for the Social Security Administration, Office of National Drug Control Policy, and National Cancer Institute. The survey he did for the Price case was done using the Knowledge Networks "web-enabled panel." The web-enabled panel is a methodology available for conducting surveys on the internet using nationally representative samples of United States households.

He claims that the methodology used for the Price case is widely recognized as producing valid and reliable survey data and has been widely used in research conducted by federal government, university, and other researchers. In his opinion the survey results he obtained for the Price case are reliable and valid, and constitute a sound basis upon which Dr. Jeffrey Harris could produce his expert opinion for the Price case — and in the current case, in support of his "loss of value" approach. See Part VIII.F.1.h, infra.

Dr. Dennis lists sixteen publications, none dealing with tobacco. A number cover research techniques.

Defendants' detailed analysis of the Dennis methodology suggest reasons why it should not be relied upon by a jury. Nevertheless, his methods and conclusions fall well within appropriate practice in such studies. They, and the proposed testimony of Dr. Dennis, meet minimum standards under Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. They are relevant to issues in the case. The methodology described in detail in the Dennis report satisfies the general requirements for surveys. Dr. Michael J. Dennis's proposed testimony and report meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. See also the analysis, and reliance on, his testimony in Price, Appendix C at ¶¶ 89, 92, infra.

f. Robbin Derry

Plaintiffs have proffered Dr. Robbin Derry, a Research Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, to render her expert opinion on the ethical nature of the defendants' conduct in developing and marketing "light" cigarettes. Dr. Derry is a well-qualified expert on business ethics. Defendants move to exclude her testimony primarily on relevancy grounds.

The issues in the litigation involve rules of substantive and procedural law that are only indirectly informed by ethical considerations. Dr. Derry's opinions may be useful to those formulating rules of law. They will not be relevant to the triers' consideration of the evidence relevant to findings of fact required by the rules of law.

Irrelevant evidence is inadmissible. See Rule 402, Fed.R.Evid. Relevant evidence is defined as "evidence having any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is of consequence to the determination of the action more probable or less probable than it would be without the evidence." Fed.R.Evid. 401. Since the ethical rules relied upon by Dr. Derry are not relevant, and therefore not admissible, the motion to exclude is granted on the ground of lack of relevancy.

The testimony of Dr. Derry should also be excluded because it might mislead the jury by confusing it about the differences between rules of law and their own ethical judgments. See Rule 403, Fed.R.Evid.

The motion to exclude Dr. Derry's opinion and testimony is granted.

g. Marvin E. Goldberg

Dr. Marvin E. Goldberg is the Irving Irene Bard Professor of Marketing at Pennsylvania State University. He has held this position since 1991. In 1998-99, he served as Interim Dean of the Smeal College of Business Administration at Pennsylvania State. From 1999 to the present, he has served as Chairman of the Marketing Department at Pennsylvania State. From 1970 to 1991, he was a professor at McGill University in Montreal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing (minors in Economics and Psychology) from the University of Illinois in 1972, an M.A. in Sociology from Columbia University in 1967, and a B.A. from McGill University in 1965.

He is past President of the Society for Consumer Psychology (Division 23 of the American Psychological Association). He is currently a member of the editorial board for the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, Journal of Social Marketing, and International Quarterly Journal of Marketing.

He is an expert in marketing as it relates to advertising, packaging, promotion, and public relations, with special knowledge of cigarette marketing and the impact of tobacco advertising and promotion on youths and adults.

His published research has focused on the effects of advertising on adults and youth. These include a co-edited book, Social Marketing: Theoretical and Practical Perspective (1997), a chapter in Advertising to Children (2000), and articles in a wide variety of journals, including the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer of Psychology, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, Psychology and Marketing, Journal of Advertising Research, Journal of Communication, Journal of Business Research, American Journal of Public Health, and Nicotine and Tobacco Research. His other publications are extensive.

The opinion of this witness is relevant. It is in part as follows:

How light cigarettes came to dominate the marketplace — the origins of their popularity.

Advertising and Promotion for the Light category drove the process.

1) [The figure below (omitted) illustrates] the trend with regard to the percentage of the tobacco industry's advertising and promotion dollars that were allocated annually to light cigarettes from 1967 to 1998, the years that the FTC reported this data in their annual report on cigarettes and 2) the annual percentage of total cigarette sales represented by light cigarettes. As may be noted, "Light" cigarettes (defined as less than 15 mg. Tar) came to dominate both categories.

. . . [U]ntil the 1990's, the percentage of dollars allocated to advertising and promotion for the light cigarette category exceeded their share of market. In effect, the industry was investing in and driving the growth of this category. Ultimately by the 1990's, given a "ceiling effect" (there is only so high that both percentages could realistically go) the two sets of percentages became more closely aligned.

The industry shaped a "viral marketing" campaign to ensure the success and popularity of Light cigarettes. The tobacco industry has long understood how advertising and interpersonal influence combine to influence the individual smoker or potential smoker. Burrows of R.J. Reynolds referred to this as a "bandwagon" effect. The process starts with the intense advertising and promotion on the part of the industry: over $200 billion in the last half century — an average of $9 million a day over the extended period of time and more recently, with climbing outlays, $35 million per day. . . .

Internal corporate documents make it clear that the tobacco companies have long known that the health issue has been the main motivation for smokers to switch to lower tar brands.

. . . The industry has operated on the premise that the factor leading smokers to lights is because they believe such cigarettes are "better for you." Any other factor — for example, "taste," — is secondary at most and more accurately, spurious.

[Discussion of studies by Kozlowski, et al., mentioned elsewhere, suggesting that large numbers of smokers gave health-related reasons for smoking light cigarettes (76 percent) and used these cigarettes as a step towards quitting (33 percent) or reducing tar exposure (50 percent).]

* * * *

It is worthwhile considering how tobacco industry advertising, related to the health dimensions discussed above, shaped syllogistic thinking on the part of smokers: if mildness means less throat irritation, and less throat irritation means — in some way — a healthier cigarette, then mild, light cigarettes must be better for health. Similarly, if Lights are said to have less tar/nicotine, and if it is understood that tar/nicotine have negative health consequences, the smoker is syllogistically led to the conclusion that Lights must be better for health (less of the "bad stuff"). . . . [T]he CEO's of R. J. Reynolds and the Liggett group and the former CEO of American Tobacco engaged in these syllogisms and they believe their customers did as well.

As internal documents reveal, the tobacco industry recognizes that it would be by allowing actual tar yields to increase that the cigarettes would come closer to tasting like regular cigarettes, and so gain in popularity.

* * * *

Internal tobacco company documents further indicate that Barclay may have done a better job in allowing for compensation than its competitors, but the others also developed cigarettes that allowed for compensation.

* * * *

The use of brand extension and the related advertising helped shaped smokers' perceptions of taste. At the same time as they developed light cigarettes that allowed for compensation, the tobacco companies learned how to boost the perceived strength of the taste, by using their advertising to shape the images associated with Lights. The companies viewed the taste dimension much as a "Rorschach ink blot test." Light cigarette smokers could be induced to see/taste in the cigarettes what the companies wanted them to see.

* * * *

The industry further understood that they could "borrow" some of the brand equity established for their primary (regular) brands such as Marlboro Red and Camels for the benefit of the light cigarette. The did so by creating brand extensions — Marlboro Lights, Camel Lights etc. and using the same advertising themes and imagery that had been so successful to shape the imagery associated with the light extensions. That this strategy could affect smokers' perceptions of the light cigarettes' taste, is recognized in their internal documents.

* * * *

The taste of regular cigarettes. One needs to question whether the "standard" for taste set by regular cigarettes is such that the taste of regular cigarettes is a positive feature? Are regular cigarettes inherently "tasty?" Internal documents indicate that the tobacco companies believed that the initial taste for (typically underage) starter smokers was aversive and sought to take measures to compensate for this. Thus, as early as 1974, R. J. Reynolds considered flavored cigarettes as a way of masking the tobacco taste. A meeting at the R. J. Reynolds offices resulted in a memo titled "New Products." Under the authorship of J. Donati of Taitham-Laird Rudner, an R. J. Reynolds advertising agency, the memo served to define a "Cigarette Designed for Beginning Smokers."

* * * *

That taste is, at least in part, a function of how products are portrayed/labeled and advertised has been carefully researched in the context of "field" experiments with foods. In one such experiment, the same lunch meals were sold in a university faculty cafeteria but were labeled differently on different days. For example, on some days one such meals was identified as "Succulent Italian Seafood filet" but on other days merely as "Seafood Filet." Those who bought and ate the foods when they were described in an embellished way reported that: the foods were more appealing to the eye; they tasted significantly better; and after eating the meal they felt more "comfortably full and satisfied."

* * * *

In the same way, [the tobacco companies] having convinced smokers that light cigarettes are healthier, those who smoke them experience and report them as tastier. The taste they experience is, at least in part, a function of the "theory" smokers have been given by the tobacco industry — that light cigarettes are healthier and "healthier" tastes better.

How is it that people develop a theory that healthier things taste better? Consumers often cannot directly judge the merits of a claim and in these circumstances they develop heuristics or "rules of thumb" which involve relying on "proxies" for the real evidence they are seeking. For example, consider how difficult it is to judge how "fresh" fish in a supermarket is. Supermarket executives have come to realize that for some consumers, fish sitting on a styrofoam tray represents a proxy conveying "not fresh," while fish sitting on ice represents a proxy conveying "fresh."

The tobacco companies have been more than willing to mislead and deceive smokers by presenting them with false proxies. Since smokers cannot know from simply examining a cigarette whether it is healthier than others or not, they need to rely on what they believe is indirect evidence — for example, calling a cigarette "light" and putting lighter colors on the package has led smokers to reason that these cigarettes must be better for them (just as . . . light beer [has] an objective benefit — fewer calories). In effect, "light" comes to mean "healthier" and "healthier" tastes better. As with the food experiments cited above, if questioned, smokers are almost certainly not going to be aware of how the label "light" (and hence the inference "healthier") influence their perceptions of the cigarette's taste.

An affidavit of Dr. David W. Stewart, Robert E. Brooker Professor of Marketing in the Gordon S. Marshal School of Business at the University of Southern California, and a defense expert, contested Dr. Goldberg's conclusions. See Part VIII.F.3.v, infra. Dr. Stewart has wide experience in tobacco and related fields and is fully qualified as an expert supporting his opinions. His conclusion was:

It is very clear from the very rich information regarding smokers of "light" cigarettes that putative class members are different. They exhibit significant individual differences. They smoke different brands and have different smoking histories. The advertising messages and packages designs differ across brands and smokers' responses to these messages and packages will differ. There have been temporal changes in the information environment that will change even the same consumer over time. They have different family, friends and social relationships that will influence decisions about smoking. They have different retail experiences, have been exposed to different media, have attended different schools and have different health care experiences. All of these differences will influence the way in which consumers of "light" cigarettes will respond in the market place.

Both experts can be useful to the jury. It will be in a position to discount Dr. Goldberg's broad assessments, if appropriate, with the more measured conclusions of Dr. Stewart. Both experts' opinions meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

h. Jeffery Harris

Dr. Jeffrey Harris has submitted reports dated February 28, 2005, March 28, 2005, and September 6, 2005.

He is a tenured professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a practicing primary care physician at the Massachusetts General Hospital. He appeared before this court as an expert witness in Falise v. American Tobacco Co., 107 F. Supp. 2d 200 (E.D.N.Y. 2000), and in Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey v. Philip Morris, 141 F. Supp. 2d 230 (E.D.N.Y. 2001). He gave expert testimony on behalf of plaintiffs in Price. See Appendix C, infra. He also testified on behalf of the United States Department of Justice concerning the economics of collusion in United States v. Philip Morris. See Appendix A, infra. His work supports the conclusion of this and other courts that he is qualified as an expert in the field for which his testimony will be proffered.

His February 2005 report reads in part as follows:

In connection with this lawsuit, counsel for plaintiffs have asked me to describe, in summary form, two specific economic methodologies that could be used to compute class-wide damages in the event that the proposed class is certified and the suit goes to trial. In what follows, I describe these two methodologies as the "loss of value" approach and the "loss of the market" approach.

Under either approach to damages, I conclude that all or virtually all class members have been harmed.

Moreover, I conclude that both methods for computing damages are feasible, reliable, and reproducible.

Loss of Value Approach

In the first method, or "loss of value" approach, an economist assesses, on a per-cigarette basis, the difference between the price paid for the good as represented and the value of the good actually sold. In effect, the economist asks: Suppose a consumer of a light cigarette had been properly informed that such a cigarette offered no reduction in risk, or possibly an increased risk. What discount from the price actually paid would be required to induce the consumer to continue to smoke the light cigarette?

I applied the loss-of-value approach in my trial testimony concerning Marlboro Lights, a particular brand of light cigarettes sold by Philip Morris USA, in Price v. Philip Morris. In the case where the Marlboro lights brand was assumed to offer no reduction in risk (the "just as harmful" case), I estimated the relative loss in value to be 77.7 percent of the purchase price. In the alternative case where Marlboro lights cigarettes might in fact increase risk (the "could be more harmful" case), I estimated the relative loss of value to be 92.3 percent. In entering its judgment in Price, the trial court found that Marlboro Lights in fact might increase risk, and thus adopted the latter measure of damages.

I also applied the loss-of-value approach in my expert report in another Illinois-based class-action lawsuit concerning the brands Doral Lights, Camel Lights, Winston Lights and Salem Lights cigarettes, all sold by R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company. In the "just as harmful case," I estimated the relative loss of value to be 73.4 percent of the purchase price, and in the "could be more harmful" case, I estimated the relative loss in value to be 91.9 percent. In formal statistical tests, I could not distinguish between the loss in value for Marlboro Lights and the loss in value for the other lights brands.

Estimation of relative loss in value entails the use of sample surveys, an approach that is well accepted in economic analysis. In my expert report and trial testimony in Price, I relied upon the results of surveys of Marlboro Lights smokers that were performed by Knowledge Networks, Inc. In my expert report on light cigarette brands sold by R.J. Reynolds, I relied on additional surveys by Knowledge Networks of smokers of those light brands. Since the Knowledge Network surveys were performed on national panels of light cigarette smokers, they would also be applicable to the present litigation. I understand that the present lawsuit encompasses light cigarette brands not covered by the two prior Knowledge Networks surveys. However, in view of my finding that the loss in value for Marlboro Lights was indistinguishable from that of four light cigarette brands sold by R.J. Reynolds, I would not necessarily recommend additional brand surveys. Nonetheless, comparable surveys could be performed to supplement those already completed.

The Knowledge Networks surveys asked respondents to make binary comparisons between a "genuine" light cigarette that reduced risk (as represented by defendants) and a "misrepresented" light cigarette that was no less harmful than conventional cigarettes. In soliciting such binary comparisons, the surveys instructed respondents to assume that the genuine and misrepresented cigarettes "taste exactly the same, cost the same, and are identical in every way" to each other. Alternatively, one could in principle use multiple-attribute survey methods, such as conjoint analysis, to determine the loss in value attributable to defendants misrepresentations.

In my analysis of the Knowledge Networks survey results, I found that virtually all respondents reported a non-zero loss in value. Thus, in an analysis of the combined results of both the Marlboro Lights survey and the survey of light cigarette brands sold by R.J. Reynolds, I found that 93 percent of respondents reported a non-zero discount in the "just as harmful case" and 96 percent reported a non-zero discount in the "could be more harmful case."

Once the discount per cigarette is determined by survey methods, it can be used to compute total class-wide damages. In particular, if the discount is computed on an absolute basis, then total class-wide damages equal the difference between price and actual value per cigarette multiplied by the number of cigarettes sold to class members. If the discount is computed on a relative basis, that is, as a percentage of the price actually paid, then total class-wide damages equal the percentage discount multiplied by the dollar value of cigarette sales to class members. I used the latter approach in my prior testimony in Price and in my expert report concerning light cigarette brands sold by R.J. Reynolds. In both instances, I used publicly available data on cigarette shipments and taxable sales, combined with data submitted by cigarette manufacturers during pretrial discovery, to compute the dollar value of light cigarette sales to class members in the State of Illinois. In the present lawsuit, data on nationwide shipments and average retail price of various brands of light cigarettes are already available from public sources.

In the Knowledge Networks surveys, virtually every respondent reported that he would require a discount to purchase the misrepresented light cigarette. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that all or virtually all class members have been harmed.

The facts in the present lawsuit do not significantly differ from those in the Illinois cases. Accordingly, I conclude that the loss of value approach can likewise be applied to the present lawsuit. Moreover, there is already sufficient survey evidence to conclude that the loss of value approach is feasible, reliable, and reproducible.

[In his September 6, 2005 report, Dr. Harris uses this model to produce estimated damages of $144 billion for a cigarette of equal risk to $205 billion for a cigarette of greater risk.]

Loss of the Market Approach

In the second method, which I shall term the "loss of the market" approach, the economist asks: Would the market for light cigarettes have continued to exist, or even have arisen in the first place, had the defendants not engaged in their alleged deceptive enterprise?

As I understand it, plaintiffs allege that defendants had substantive knowledge that light cigarettes did not reduce health risks or may even have increased health risks and that, absent defendants' enterprise, consumers would have learned that light cigarettes did not reduce health risks or, in fact, might actually increase risk. Moreover, I am aware of evidence indicating that, absent defendants' enterprise, genuine risk-reducing brands would have in fact been sold. Accordingly, I conclude that, in all likelihood, light cigarettes — at least in the form they were actually marketed — would either have been discontinued or never sold in the first place.

The economic bases for such a conclusion are the very substantial discounts for light cigarettes reported in the surveys performed thus far, as well as certain cost factors. Cigarettes have been and remain subject to substantial state and federal excise taxes. In addition, there are likely to be significant setup costs to launching, manufacturing and promoting light cigarette brands. In view of these cost factors, if the demand for light cigarette brands were sufficiently low, then in all likelihood, it would have been unprofitable for cigarette manufacturers to market them at all. It is a well established precept in basic economics that suppliers will not market or discontinue marketing a good if demand is inadequate in comparison to costs.

For example, in 2003, excise taxes comprised 23.1 percent of total U.S. expenditures on cigarettes. At the same time, the 2003 Knowledge Networks Survey indicated that, even in the "just as harmful case," consumers would be willing to pay only 22.3 percent of the current retail price of Marlboro Lights cigarettes. In view of these findings, an economist would conclude that no Marlboro Lights brand cigarettes — at least in the form that they were actually marketed — would have been sold in 2003.

Under the loss of market approach, light cigarette brands would have never been sold in the first place, or would have been discontinued soon after consumers would have learned that such brands do not reduce harm. Accordingly, under the loss of market approach, it is reasonable to conclude that all or virtually all class members have been harmed.

Under the loss of market method, the per-cigarette damage would equal the full purchase price, and the total damages would equal the retail value of all lights cigarettes sold from the date of discontinuation of the market up to the date of trial. I therefore conclude that the loss of market method is feasible, reliable and reproducible. [In his March 2005 report, Dr. Harris estimated damages of $285 billion using the loss of market model.]

The "loss of market" model is excluded on non- Daubert grounds. See Part III.D.1.a, supra.

Defendants properly point out in their objections to Dr. Harris's "loss of value" model that he does not calculate the number of persons who actually relied on defendants' representations, but assumes reliance by every member of the class. Nevertheless, on the assumptions made, the methodology and computations are supportable — even though contested by defense experts. The model can be adjusted according to the jury's finding on the percent of the class that relied on the alleged fraud. See, for example, the lower estimates of 28 percent, 31 percent, and 41 percent of smokers who believed "lights" were safer according to surveys cited in defendants' memorandum seeking to exclude Dr. Harris's testimony, dated June 9, 2006 at p 12. The issues are appropriate for the jury's resolution. Dr. Harris's work will be helpful to them when subject to cross-examination and contrasting views of experts for both sides.

Jeffrey E. Harris's proposed testimony and the reports on which it is based meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rule of Evidence. See also Blue Cross, Appendix B at Part IV.C.2.a.ii, infra; Price, Appendix C at ¶¶ 83-85, 95-97, infra.

i. John R. Hauser

Dr. John R. Hauser is the Kirin Professor of Marketing at the Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ("MIT"). He serves MIT in a number of capacities, including Head of the Marketing Group, Director of the Center for Innovation in Product Development, and Director of the International Center for Research on the Management of Technology. He is Area Head for Management Science at MIT. The Management Science Area at the MIT Sloan School of Management includes the Marketing Group, the Statistics Group, and other groups. The principal focus of his research and teaching has been in marketing management, product and service development, consumer satisfaction, marketing research, and competitive marketing strategy. He is the author of over sixty articles and papers, as well as the textbooks Design and Marketing of New Products and Essentials of New Product Management. In addition, he has served as editor-in-chief of Marketing Science and held senior editorial positions with Management Science and the Journal of Product Innovation Management. He has received numerous awards for excellence in research and teaching in marketing and marketing research, and was recognized by the American Marketing Association with the Converse Award for "outstanding contributions to the development of the science of marketing." In September of 2001 he received the Parlin Award, "the oldest and most distinguished award in the marketing research field," according to the American Marketing Association.

He has served as an expert witness in connection with a range of disputes. Most of his expert testimony has involved surveys and other market research to measure consumers' attitudes, beliefs, and intentions. He has been called upon to project what consumers would have done in different market scenarios, to measure the importance of product features, to measure the impact of rumors, to evaluate marketing research with respect to advertising claims, and to investigate the potential for consumer confusion. He has been consulted by dozens of major corporations, including General Motors, Fidelity Investments, American Airlines, Proctor Gamble, and International Business Machines.

His report dated December 19, 2005 included the results of a survey that, using conjoint analysis, sought to determine whether health risks are a significant contributing factor in consumer decisions to smoke "light" cigarettes; what proportion of "light" cigarette-smoking consumers relied on health risks as a significant contributing factor to their decision; and how consumers and the market would react to cigarettes with different levels of health risks. It was accompanied by extensive supporting documents and print-outs of calculations. His study methodology conformed to appropriate standards and appeared to have been properly executed.

It reads in part as follows:

The basic methodology I selected is known as web-based conjoint analysis. Conjoint analysis is a tool that is widely used in the field of marketing research. . . . [It] is generally recognized by marketing science academics and industry practitioners to be the most widely studied and applied form of quantitative consumer preference measurement. It has been shown to provide valid and reliable measures of consumer preferences, and these preferences have been shown to provide valid and reliable forecasts of what consumers will do (or would have done) under scenarios related to those measured. For example, under the auspices of MIT's virtual Consumer Initiative, my colleagues and I have undertaken large-scale tests of the validity of web-based conjoint analysis. Predictions were highly accurate.

One of the scientific papers discussing the validity test recently received two highly prestigious awards as the best paper in the marketing sciences literature for 2003 (awarded in 2004) and for the best paper based on a dissertation (awarded in June 2005). . . .

The general idea behind conjoint analysis is that consumers' preferences for a particular product are driven by features or descriptions of features embodied in that product. For example, a cigarette might be described by features such as: (I) pack type (hard or soft); (ii) degree of perceived health risks; (iii) taste; and (iv) price. A feature, such as perceived health risks, can have many levels such as: less than "ultra-light" cigarettes, the same as "ultra-light" cigarettes, the same as "light" cigarettes, the same as regular cigarettes, and greater than regular cigarettes. (Detailed wording and description of these levels are provided later in this report.) When applying (decompositional) conjoint analysis, respondents are asked to make holistic judgments about products (or product descriptions) or to choose among products (or product descriptions). That is, consumers are shown product profiles made up of the features or descriptions of features and asked to indicate their preferences for these profiles or to choose among these profiles ("choice task"). The conjoint analysis methods use the holistic judgments or choice tasks to decompose respondent preferences for a product into the partial contribution of these feature levels or descriptions ("partworths"). These partworths are then estimated from respondent preferences or choice with the appropriate statistical methods. The partworths for feature levels are identified with the estimation methods so that the partworths best predict consumer preferences or choices. The difference between the smallest and largest partworths for levels of each feature can be used to calculate the relative importance of each feature in purchase decisions. Importance refers to the relative value of changing that feature from its least preferred level to its most preferred level. The partworths for changes in price levels measure the relative importance of changing price. The price reduction needed to compensate for a lower (lesspreferred) level of a feature, or the additional price consumers would pay for the higher (more-preferred) level of feature can then be calculated.

* * * *

Based on the methodologies described in this report and based on calculations of the importance of health risks as a factor in consumer decisions, consumer willingness to pay for lower health risk, and market-based simulations, I conclude that health risks are a positive contributing factor in the choice of "light" cigarettes for 90.1 percent of "light" cigarette consumers and, of these consumers, on average, it is ranked above all other measured features, excluding price, (i.e., taste or packaging). It is ranked above at least one other feature by 97.8 percent of the consumers, indicating its significance for the overwhelming majority of respondents.

The methodologies described in this report provide data with which to calculate the market value of the change in perceived health risks for "light" cigarettes. In this report I provide two examples of how one might calculate the market value. These examples suggest that the market value of a decrease in health risks from the same as regular cigarettes to the same as "light" cigarettes is between 39.8 percent and 47.3 percent of the price per pack.

For "light" cigarette consumers, the data and analyses in this report can be used to simulate "but for" scenarios in which "light" cigarettes with varying health risks are available on the market. For example, if each brand of "light" cigarettes offered two versions of "light" cigarettes, one version with the perceived health risks the same as "light" cigarettes at regular price and another version with the perceived health risks the same as regular cigarettes but at a 50% reduction in price, then the "light" cigarettes with the better perceived health risks would obtain a market share between 46 and 48 percent.

The data and analyses in this report can be used to gain insight on the price discount that would be needed to sell a cigarette with perceived health risks greater than regular cigarettes. For example, more than 75 percent of the consumers would be willing to pay more than 50 percent of the price per pack to decrease health risks from greater than regular cigarettes to health risks the same as "light" cigarettes. One estimate of the market value of a perceived decrease in health risks from greater than that of regular cigarettes to that the same as "light" cigarettes is substantially more than 50 percent of the price per pack. At most 8/10ths of 1 percent of the respondents use a non-compensatory lexicographic decision rule for taste, health risks, pack type, and price. For all other respondents and for the features of taste, health risks, and price, high levels on some features can compensate for low levels on other features.

The overall summary of his conclusions is:

Based upon an examination of the partworths for perceived health risks, I find, to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, that 69.7 percent of "light" cigarette consumer place a statistically significant positive value on perceived health risks, and only 1.1 percent place a statistically significant negative value on perceived health risks. In accordance with these assessments and measurements, 90.1 percent of "light" cigarette consumers place a positive value in perceived health risks.

Based upon an examination of feature importance, I find, to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, that perceived health risks are a significant contributing factor in the cigarette purchase decision of 98.1 percent of "light" cigarette consumers who place a positive value on perceived health risks.

Based on Willingness-to-Pay method, I estimate that the median value of the change in perceived health risks from the same as regular cigarettes to the same as "light" cigarette is 47.3 percent of the price per pack.

Based on the Market-Based method, I estimate that the market value of the change in perceived health risks from the same as regular cigarettes to the same as "light" cigarette is between 39.8 percent and 47.1 percent of the price per pack. Based on the Willingness-to-Pay method, I estimate that more than 75 percent of the consumers would be willing to pay more than 50 percent of the price per pack to decrease health risks from greater than regular cigarettes to health risks the same as "light" cigarettes.

Based on the Market-Based method, I estimate that the market value of the change in perceived health risks from greater than regular cigarettes to the same as "light" cigarettes is substantially more than 50 percent of the price per pack.

Based on the methodologies described in this report, derived from both consumer Willingness-to-Pay and Market-Based simulations, I conclude, on the basis of the best available information and methodologies, that individual consumers and the market value of the change in perceived health risks from that of a regular cigarette to that of a "light" cigarette is between 39.8 percent and 47.3 percent of the price per pack.

Based on the above analysis of the partworths, at most 8/10ths of 1 percent of the respondents use a non-compensatory lexicographic decision rule for taste, health risks, pack type, and price. For all other respondents and for the features of taste, health risks, and price, high values on some features can compensate for low values on other features.

Since this proposed testimony will probably be critical in estimation of damages, the report of Dr. Hauser has been strongly attacked by defendants through depositions, documents, and the report of defendants' well qualified expert Dr. David W. Stewart, among others. Dr. Stewart's scientific background is exemplary. His conclusions are:

Dr Hauser's survey and the conclusions he draws from its results are fundamentally and fatally flawed. His survey creates highly artificial product alternatives that are provided to smokers of "light" cigarette brands for evaluation. These alternatives do not include the most important factor that influences the choice of cigarettes by smokers — brand equity. Dr. Hauser also ignores other factors that influence choice including, menthol versus non-menthol, and filter tip versus non-filter tip. Additionally, none of his alternatives are described in terms of FTC levels of tar and nicotine and none include the health warnings that are mandated for all cigarette advertising and packages.

Dr. Hauser creates highly artificial alternatives that include selections that are not available in the market: a cigarette with greater health risk than "regular" cigarettes and a cigarette that has less health risk than ultra-light cigarettes. His results report that many smokers have a preference for the non-existent "healthier" cigarette relative to the non-existent, very unhealthy cigarette. These results offer no insight into smokers' choices of cigarettes that actually exist in the market. Dr. Hauser's survey explicitly suggests to respondents that there are differences in health risks associated with different types of cigarette, ignoring the very substantial empirical research that demonstrates that many smokers do not believe there are any differences in health risks associated with cigarettes that differ in their FTC measured levels of tar and nicotine.

By creating artificial differences in health risk and by inflating the range of health risk and price among his alternatives relative to the two other attributes included in his product descriptors, taste and type of pack (hard versus soft), Dr. Hauser makes the outcome of his survey a foregone conclusion. The results of his survey were foreordained by its design. Such results provide no insights into the actual choices of real smoker in existing markets now or in the past.

These differences between the experts are substantial. Given all the other evidence in the case, the jury will be in a position to evaluate the probative force of their positions. The survey conducted by Dr. Hauser may not perfectly represent the class; that does not make it irrelevant or unhelpful. Sample surveys, by their very nature, are sketches, not exact replicas, of the examined population.

[A] good survey defines an appropriate population, uses an unbiased method for selecting the sample, has a high response rate, and gathers accurate information on the sample units. When these goals are met, the sample tends to be representative of the population: the measurements within the sample describe fairly the characteristics in the population. It remains possible, however, that despite every precaution, the sample, being less than exhaustive, is not representative; proper statistical analysis helps address the magnitude of this risk. . . . [S]urveys may be useful even if they fail to meet all of the criteria given above; but then, additional arguments are needed to justify the inferences.

David H. Kaye and David A. Freedman, "Reference Guide on Statistics," in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence (FJC, 2d ed. 2000), at 102 (emphasis supplied). Direct and cross-examination, testimony by supporting and opposing witnesses, and argument by plaintiff and defense counsel will provide the additional guidance "needed to justify the inferences" the parties seek to draw from Dr. Hauser's survey.

The proposed testimony of John R. Hauser meets the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

j. Katherine Kinsella

Katherine Kinsella is the president of Kinsella/Novak Communications, Ltd., an advertising and legal notification firm. She has over 30 years of experience in advertising, marketing, and public relations. She is a nationally recognized specialist in media-based notification programs in class actions and bankruptcies. She has developed and directed some of the largest and most complex national notification programs in the country. The scope of her work includes notification programs in antitrust, bankruptcy, consumer fraud, mass tort, and product liability litigation. Specific cases have involved asbestos, breast implants, home siding and roofing products, infant formula, pharmaceuticals, polybutylene plumbing, tobacco, and Holocaust claims. She and her firm have developed or consulted on over 200 notification programs, placing over $120 million in media notice.

She is the author of the "Plain Language Tool Kit for Class Action Notice," published in the October 25, 2002 issue of Class Action Litigation Report; "Quantifying Notice Results in Class Actions — the Daubert/Kumho Mandate," published in the July 27, 2001 issue of Class Action Litigation Report and the August 27, 2001 issue of the United States Law Week; "The Ten Commandments of Class Action Notice," published in the September 24, 1997 issue of the Toxics Law Reporter, and co-author of "How Viable Is the Internet for Class Action Notice" published in the March 25, 2005 issue of Class Action Litigation Report.

Prior to establishing her firm, she was the Senior Vice President and Director of Marketing and Advertising for the Kamber Group, then the largest independently owned communications company in Washington, D.C. In that capacity she handled national advertising, direct mail and marketing clients. During her twelve years at the Kamber Group, she also served as Director of the Public Affairs Division, which included the firm's public relations, marketing, corporate communications, and advertising operations. She holds a B.A. in Education and English Literature and an M.A. in English Literature. Her experience qualifies her in the field on which she was asked to report.

Plaintiffs' counsel asked that media stories focusing on the health aspects of low tar or "light" cigarettes over a 43-year period be examined for media source, consistency of message, and reach of audience.

Despite the length of time during which stories appeared and the inability to capture coverage in all media due to the lack of records, the results of the analysis seem persuasive and are supported by research on how Americans get their news.

Ms. Kinsella's report reads in part as follows:

• From 1957 to 1968, media stories focused on the development of better filters.

• From 1968 to 1983, media stories reporting on the health aspects of "light" and low tar cigarettes provided a dominant message concerning the efficacy of smoking these types of cigarettes. This reflected the view of U.S. health authorities, which was based on the known or released scientific research at the time. The message was:

Smoking is hazardous to your health but "light" cigarettes appear to be safer so if you must smoke, switch to low tar and low nicotine cigarettes.

Even the Surgeon General in 1981 stated that low tar and low nicotine cigarettes appear to provide some small measure of protection to the smoker.

The first observed national appearance specifically questioning the positive health effects of "light" cigarettes was provided to the public with the publishing of the 1983 San Francisco Hospital Study in the New England Journal of Medicine. It reported that people absorb just as much nicotine from the low tar, low nicotine cigarettes as from regular brands and that the tar intake from these smokes is probably the same, as well. Although reports on these cigarettes continued to appear in the media sporadically until Monograph 13 was published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services in February 2001, these reports often contained conflicting and mixed messages. The language used by health authorities and the media was often equivocal. An example is the 1985 statement by the New York State Journal of Medicine that "low tar cigarettes 'may' be no less hazardous than other cigarettes." Even as late as 1997, NBC Evening News indicated its assessment that the smoking public was unaware of the health and safety hazards of low tar when it stated that a report from the Centers for Disease Control was "about to shatter the myth that low tar, low nicotine cigarettes are less harmful to your health."

• National media coverage of the health effects of low tar and "light" cigarettes over time was tied directly to the release of reports from respected health authorities, such as the American Cancer Society, the National Institutes of Health and the New England Journal of Medicine. Coverage occurred in clusters around the release day and there is no evidence of any sustaining reputation of the substance of [these] reports. With rare exception, the news story disappeared from the media within a few days or a week. There was no continuous coverage of the health effects of "light" or low tar cigarettes, only intermittent spikes of short-lived information.

• Research during this period from 1983 to 2000 indicated that there was essentially two types of stories.

Story A was primarily about nicotine or the safety of smoking in general. Low tar or "light" cigarettes were mentioned in these stories. Approximately 148 appearances of this story were observed during this period.

Story B focused specifically on the health and safety attributes of low tar and "light" cigarettes. Approximately 280 appearances of this story were observed during this period.

• Almost without exception, news stories appeared in observed national and local media for a single day in a single market. With rare exception, the stories collectively had a shelf life of no more than a few days. Only six of the 72 clusters during 1983 to 2000 reached more than 10 percent of the national audience of adults 18 years of age and older. In terms of share of voice, even the largest cluster of stories on the health and safety attributes of low and "light" cigarettes had less than one percent of the gross impressions as compared to the impressions to the cigarette advertising schedules during the same time frame.

• Even through the late 1990s there was no consistent message that would have enabled a smoker of low tar and "light" cigarettes to come to a fully informed conclusion about the health and safety of these cigarettes.

Defendants question the criteria, methodology, and completeness of Ms. Kinsella's survey. The exhibits attached to their brief attacking her report raise bona fide questions as to its reliability, particularly as to articles she excluded as peripheral or those she missed. These arguments raise issues that a jury will consider in determining the probative force of this expert's findings. Her research methodology was adequate. Katherine Kinsella's research, report, and proposed testimony meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

k. Matthew L. Myers

Matthew L. Myers graduated from the University of Michigan Law School in 1973 and then served as a law clerk to Chief Judge Raymond Pettine of the United States District Court for Rhode Island. He has been Chief Staff Counsel for the National Prison Project of the American Civil Liberties Union Foundation and is president of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids Organization. From 1980 to 1981 he was Program Advisor in charge of all tobacco-related actions for the Federal Trade Commission. From 1982 through 1991 he was the lead staff person for a coalition created by the American Cancer Society, the American Lung Association, and the American Heart Association to address tobacco-related issues on a national level. He served as counsel to that organization from 1992 to 1996.

The Harvard School of Public Health honored him with the Julius Richmond Award for actions taken to protect the public health. He was also a recipient of the Surgeon General's Medallion from then-Surgeon General C. Everett Koop. In 2000 he was selected to co-chair a commission appointed by President Clinton to propose recommendations for how to best address the problems facing tobacco farmers and their communities while protecting the public health. This commission produced a report and set of recommendations that were endorsed by the major public health organizations and by the major tobacco growers' organizations. In 1998 he was appointed to the first tobacco advisory committee created by the Director General of the World Health Organization to make recommendations for addressing the problem of tobacco worldwide.

In his report he opines in part as follows:

Summary of Conclusions

1. The cigarette industry historically has had far greater technical and scientific knowledge on issues of smoking and health, including compensation, cigarette design, and the accuracy of the FTC Method, than the FTC.

2. The cigarette industry did not provide information that it possessed to the FTC that would have been useful to the FTC in its efforts to ensure that the public was being provided with accurate information regarding cigarettes.

3. The information the cigarette companies did not provide to the FTC was relevant to the FTC's understanding of whether the results produced by the FTC Test Method provided meaningful and not misleading information about the relative level of tar consumers of different tobacco products were receiving and about whether the test results, as the FTC believed, produced meaningful and not misleading information for consumers, who believed that they potentially were reducing their risk of disease by reducing their level of intake of tar by switching to and/or smoking cigarettes that scored lower on the FTC machine tests. This information might have changed or modified the positions taken by the FTC on issues such as the FTC Method, compensation, and the publication of tar and nicotine numbers in advertising.

The Cigarette Industry and the FTC

Personal History with the Industry. In the Fall of 1980 I was hired as a Senior Trial Attorney and Program Advisor in the Division of Advertising Practices of the Bureau of Consumer Protection at the Federal Trade Commission.

In that capacity I was responsible for overseeing all of the FTC's enforcement activities concerning tobacco, and had supervisory authority over the FTC's tar and nicotine testing laboratory and report.

I supervised the largest investigation that the FTC had ever conducted into tobacco industry marketing and the impact of that marketing on the government's efforts to use health warnings to inform the American public of the health hazards of using tobacco. This was a broad investigation that was initiated before my arrival and that led the FTC in the Spring of 1981 to issue a report titled "Staff Report on the Cigarette Advertising Investigation." This report was a comprehensive review of what the government knew about the health effects of tobacco, and it examined in detail the public's knowledge of the health effects of tobacco products, including light and low tar tobacco products. It also included the federal government's most comprehensive review as of that date of tobacco industry marketing practices and their impact. Finally, the report set out the Federal Trade Commission's history of involvement with the tobacco issue and made recommendations for revising the then existing health warnings on cigarette packages and ads.

While at the FTC I also initiated the investigation that ultimately resulted in litigation between the FTC and Brown Williamson ("B W") because of B W's advertising of Barclay cigarettes. The FTC alleged that B W made false and deceptive claims about the tar yield of the product in both its advertising and its labeling. The outcome of this litigation was that B W was prohibited from advertising their Barclay brand as a 1 mg cigarette. The case was of particular interest because it exposed a serious weakness in the FTC's system of testing the tar and nicotine levels in cigarettes and required my staff and me to look more closely at the tar and nicotine testing system.

. . . . I believe the tobacco companies have unfairly attempted to shift responsibility from themselves to the government by: (1) wrongly asserting that the government made them come up with a tar and nicotine testing system; (2) wrongly asserting that the government required them to publish the machine-generated tar and nicotine results; and (3) wrongly asserting that the FTC fully understood that its testing system did not predict the amount of tar and nicotine smokers actually received.

From the beginning, the FTC acknowledged that the FTC testing method did not provide ratings that represented either an average or usual dosage of tar and nicotine, but indicated that such ratings would allow consumers to compare brands based upon testing under a controlled system. However, the FTC did not contemplate and was not aware that tobacco companies could or would manipulate or design cigarettes which would produce lower tar and nicotine yields when tested on the machine but permit consumers to extract higher levels of tar and nicotine or deliver higher levels of tar and nicotine to consumers in ways that could not be detected by the testing method.

As reflected in the position that the FTC took in the case against B W concerning Barclay cigarettes that I worked on, although the FTC knew the machine tests did not accurately predict the exact amount of tar and nicotine a consumer receives because different consumers smoke differently, they did believe that as a general rule the tests gave consumers relevant information that would enable consumers to judge which products would result in them receiving more tar and which ones would result in them receiving less tar. As reflected in the findings in the National Cancer Institute Monograph 13, this perception is as a general rule inaccurate and the FTC testing system does not provide a reliable predictor of which cigarettes provide consumers more or less tar, let alone predict the relative tar delivery ratio of different tobacco products when actually consumed by a smoker.

It was the tobacco companies — not the FTC — who for decades wanted to use tar and nicotine figures to promote their products. In response to tobacco company claims about the tar and nicotine levels in their products, the FTC was constantly attempting to find ways to prevent them from using tar and nicotine claims to mislead consumers. For example, on several occasions in the 1950's, the FTC challenged tar and nicotine claims made by various tobacco companies. In 1960, Earl Kintner, then Chairman of the FTC, issued a statement which described an agreement by the tobacco companies that there would be no more tar and nicotine level claims made in cigarette advertising because the FTC perceived those claims to be deceptive.

A frequent problem with the tobacco industry's tar and nicotine claims prior to 1966 was the FTC's perception that these claims were based on unreliable testing systems about which there was no scientific consensus. These various systems did not permit meaningful comparisons between products and permitted the tobacco companies to manipulate the results in ways that were misleading to consumers.

It was in response to this problem that the FTC consulted with the tobacco industry in an effort to come up with a testing system that would provide consumers with reliable comparative data to evaluate the relative tar and nicotine delivery of different tobacco products on the market.

After significant input from and reliance on the tobacco industry, the FTC believed that the test that became known as the FTC Method was such a system. As a result, in 1966, the FTC issued a press release stating that a statement by a tobacco manufacturer of tar and nicotine content expressed in milligrams of mainstream smoke of a cigarette consistent with the FTC testing method would not be a violation of any provision of law administered by the Commission. Falsely believing that the testing system that became popularly known as the FTC Test Method gave consumers reliable information about the relative tar delivery of different products, in 1970, the FTC proposed a trade regulation rule that would have required disclosure of tar and nicotine ratings in cigarette advertising. That rulemaking was suspended when eight cigarette manufacturers voluntarily and jointly agreed to include the ratings in advertising without government action. The FTC was not a party to that agreement.

Thus, no administrative rule to require the disclosure of tar and nicotine ratings was ever promulgated by the FTC or any other federal agency, and the system of placing tar and nicotine ratings in advertising was never established pursuant to law or regulation. Rather, until the FTC closed down its small lab, the FTC conducted testing and the industry disclosed these numbers voluntarily. This fact was referred to in an opinion rendered by the Honorable Gerhard Gesell of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, in which he stated that the voluntary agreement has "no legal effect." Federal Trade Comm'n v. Brown Williamson Tobacco Co., 580 F. Supp. 981, 986 (D.D.C. 1983), aff'd in part, 778 F.2d 35 (D.C. Cir. 1985).

The Superiority of the Industry's Knowledge. From the 1960s through the 1980s, the FTC had only a handful of lawyers who had any involvement with overseeing the advertising and marketing of cigarettes. Moreover, the FTC's scientific capabilities were woefully inadequate. The FTC did not employ scientists with special expertise in tobacco and health, and had only one analytical chemist on staff.

In contrast, the cigarette companies had many scientists on their staffs, and contemporaneous documents that were made public in the late 1990s indicated that their expertise on many smoking and health issues that the FTC was trying to investigate or oversee was far superior to that of the FTC. For example, from my review of recently-publicized cigarette industry documents, it is apparent to me that the industry's knowledge regarding compensation and the impact of product design mechanisms was dramatically greater than the FTC's. Moreover, during my tenure at the FTC, the FTC was not aware of the manner or the extent to which the cigarette companies undermined the goal of the machine tests to produce ratings that provided consumers a meaningful way to differentiate between different tobacco products. The companies did this by exploiting their superior knowledge regarding compensation and product design in order to design cigarettes that would register as low tar when tested by the FTC Method but deliver much higher tar and nicotine when smoked by humans. These cigarettes' tar and nicotine delivery in normal use compared to other products bore little or no relation to their relative rating on the FTC administered machine tests.

During my tenure at the FTC, we sought information from the cigarette companies on issues such as compensation, the accuracy of the FTC Method, and related issues. After seeing documents made public in the late 1990s that reflect the state of the industry's knowledge on these and other topics in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, it is clear to me that the industry had information that it did not provide to the FTC. As a result, the FTC was misled by the cigarette companies, who concealed a significant amount of information that was relevant to the FTC's understanding of whether the results produced by the test method relied upon by the FTC provided meaningful and not misleading information about the relative level of tar consumers of different tobacco products were receiving and, therefore, would have been invaluable to the FTC in its regulatory efforts.

* * * *

The subsequent publication of internal cigarette company documents in the late 1990s indicates that the companies had far greater information about the FTC Method, compensation and design changes than the cigarette companies provided to the FTC, even after the FTC requested disclosure of such information for the purpose of the Barclay investigation. RJR and PM provided the FTC with only the information that was necessary to enable the FTC to conduct the Barclay investigation. In fact, the subsequently-disclosed documents indicate that the companies withheld crucial information that might have changed the FTC's approach both to the Barclay investigation and the continued use of the FTC Method.

Based on my review of these documents as compared with the information that was disclosed to the FTC at the time of the Barclay investigation, I believe that the FTC was deceived by the cigarette industry as a result of their failure to disclose material information, as well as by their assertion of positions that they knew at the time not to be supported by the information that was available internally to the companies.

"Light" and Low-Tar Cigarettes. As far back as the 1981 FTC Staff Report that I supervised, the survey evidence indicated that a large percentage of smokers believed that it had been proven that "light" and "low tar" cigarettes were less hazardous than other cigarettes.

The tobacco companies marketed these products in ways that contributed to the public's belief that these products had been proven to be safer than other products. The descriptors themselves contributed to these impressions, as did the marketing themes that emphasized that certain brands have lower levels of tar on machine tests than other brands.

Defendants move to exclude entirely the testimony of Mr. Myers. It was excluded in United States v. Philip Morris, as "basically a speech, not admissible in evidence." See United States v. Philip Morris, 5/16/05 Tr. at 21041-42. The motion to exclude is granted. What the Federal Trade Commission knew, how its smoking test equipment worked, and what information defendants did or did not conceal from it may be proven by documentary evidence and less personally involved experts and through argument to the jury. This testimony and report, even if parts might meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence, are excluded under Rule 403 as cumulative.

1. Blaine F. Nye

Dr. Blaine F. Nye is a financial economist and the President of Stanford Consulting Group, Inc., which provides research and consulting services in financial economics and related areas to clients, including government agencies, corporations, and law firms. He has a B.A. degree in physics from Stanford University, an M.S. degree in physics from the University of Washington, an M.B.A. degree from Stanford, and a Ph.D. in finance from Stanford. He has served as a consultant or expert witness in the areas of insurance economics, securities litigation, intellectual property, and economic damage analysis. During the past five years he has provided expert testimony in tobacco trial or cases by deposition.

He was retained by counsel for plaintiffs to provide expert opinions on the following issues, during the period commencing on the first date that defendants began selling "light" cigarettes until the present:

1) The Defendants' need to introduce low-tar cigarette brands, including "light" cigarette brands, in order to bolster Defendants' sales and financial results amid new and increasing public health concerns about smoking; and

2) The correlation of Defendants' stock prices with public announcements regarding both the dangers of smoking and the relative health benefits of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes.

His opinion reads in part as follows:

My preliminary opinions are based upon my professional knowledge and experience, as well as on a preliminary review of documents and information relevant to this matter, and analyses of data. . . . Documents and other materials upon which I have relied as a basis for my opinions are cited in this report and its exhibits; all documents and materials are the type typically relied upon by experts in preparing this type of report. Analyses that are bases for my opinions are described in this report and its exhibits, and the results of these analyses are also contained herein.

The materials I have relied upon include, in general categories: Plaintiffs' Complaint and other pleadings, news reports, government reports, SEC filings, industry-related documents and other information, analysts' reports, daily stock price data, and daily market index prices. These are the types of materials and data typically relied upon by economists to examine the effects of public information on changes in stock prices and the relationships between changes in stock prices, newly released information, and changes in market effects.

* * * *

III Summary of Opinions

1. The Defendants' need to introduce low-tar cigarette brands, including "light" cigarette brands, in order to bolster Defendants' sales and financial results amid new and increasing public health concerns about smoking.

Share price is the present value, on a per-share basis, of the expected future earnings stream of a company that would accrue to the company's shareholders and embodies market expectations about the company's future earnings growth.

My preliminary opinion is that in the absence of low-tar cigarette brands, including "light" cigarette brands, and the sales they generated, the present values of Defendants' expected future earnings streams during the Class Period would have been less than what was observed during Class Period. Thus, Defendants' financial health, as reflected in their share prices and financial statements, would not have been as strong as was observed during the Class Period.

2. The correlation of Defendants' stock prices with public announcements regarding both the dangers of smoking and the relative health of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes.

My preliminary analysis indicates that there is a strong correlation between Defendants' stock prices and public announcements regarding either the dangers of smoking or the relative health aspects of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes. . . .

IV. Statement of Opinions and Bases of Opinions

A. Background

During the early 1960's, government studies in both the United States and Britain concluded that smoking was unhealthful. In March 1962, the British Royal College of Physicians released a report that concluded smoking is a cause of lung cancer and bronchitis and "probably contributes to the development of coronary heart disease and various other less common diseases." Additionally, Readers Digest published an article in June 1962 describing the British report. The impact of these publications on the value of Defendants' stock prices was swift and negative. An event study of the period beginning two months before the release of the Royal College of Physicians report and ending approximately four months after the Readers Digest article was published shows that the tobacco industry both as a whole (minus British-based Brown Williamson) and individually exhibited statistically significant negative abnormal stock returns during the first ten months of 1962. The new adverse health information contained in the 1962 Royal College of Physicians report was material to investors in Defendants' stock, who subsequently devalued the industry out of fear that this new information would lead to reduced demand for cigarettes.

Subsequent to the publication of the British report, United States domestic cigarette sales dropped suddenly after the release of the 1964 U.S. Surgeon General's report, which concluded that smoking causes lung cancer. From 1963 to 1964, total domestic unit sales reported by cigarette manufacturers dropped 2.23%, from 516.5 billion to 505.0 billion, and per capita domestic cigarette sales dropped 3.34%, from 4,286 to 4,143, during the same period. Indeed, there is extensive academic research concluding that the adverse health information related to smoking released after 1964 reduced smoking consumption to much less than would have been predicted for the years after 1964.

In addition, published scientific studies in the 1960's began correlating high tar and nicotine levels with an increased risk of developing smoking-related diseases, which led to a growing demand for cigarettes that would deliver lower amounts of tar and nicotine. It is my understanding that Defendants met this newfound consumer demand by introducing "light" brands and marketing them as less dangerous than regular cigarettes. Since the late 1960's, the "light" cigarette has become an increasingly important segment of the cigarette industry. Between 1967 and 1981, the market share of low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, rose from 2% to 56%, and by 2000, they accounted for 87.1% of total domestic cigarette sales. Despite the contraction of cigarette sales that occurred immediately after the Surgeon General's report in 1964, as well as a sales decline again in 1969, domestic cigarette unit sales rose every year for the period 1970 to 1981.

In 2004, the Surgeon General concluded that "light" cigarettes are no less harmful than regular cigarettes: "In this report, one major conclusion finds that cigarettes with lower machine-measured yields of tar and nicotine (i.e., low tar/nicotine cigarettes) have not produced a lower risk of smoking-related diseases." In addition, the report concludes that "[s]moking cigarettes with lower machine-measured yields of tar and nicotine provides no clear benefit to health," and "[a]lthough characteristics of cigarettes have changed during the last 50 years and yields of tar and nicotine have declined substantially, as assessed by the Federal Trade Commission's test protocol, the risk of lung cancer in smokers has not declined."

B. The Defendants' need to introduce low-tar cigarette brands, including "light" cigarette brands, in order to bolster Defendants' sales and financial results amid new and increasing public health concerns about smoking.

As Defendants' research on consumer sentiment demonstrates, smokers were acutely aware of the health risks they faced from higher tar and nicotine levels during the Class Period. As Brown Williamson's advertising agency noted in 1967:

Psychologically, most smokers feel trapped. They are concerned about health and addiction. Smokers care about what commercials say about them. Advertising may help to reduce anxiety and guilt.

A Brown Williamson marketing study in 1977 noted, "Almost all smokers agree that the primary reason for the increasing acceptance of law 'tar' brand is based on the health reassurance they seem to offer." And a 1976 study prepared by Philip Morris found that 74% of smokers cited specific brands as "better for health" on the basis of "less/lower in tar and nicotine" or "less/lower in tar."

The manner in which low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, were marketed during the Class Period points to the fact that they were publicly perceived as an alternative to quitting. As the National Cancer Institute found, "(light) brands were targeted at those smokers who were thinking of quitting in an effort to intercept the smokers and keep them smoking cigarettes." An ad for R.J. Reynolds' Vantage brand in 1974 declared, "To smoke or not to smoke, that is the question. With all the slings and arrows that have been aimed at smoking, you may be wondering why you smoke at all. The cigarettes of the past provided a lot of smoking pleasure but they also delivered a lot of the 'tar' and nicotine the critics have aimed at. But now Vantage has entered the scene. Vantage is the cigarette that succeeds in cutting down 'tar' and nicotine without compromising flavor." Along a similar theme, Lorillard's brand True was advertised with the slogan, "Considering all I'd heard, I decided to either quit or smoke True. I smoke True."

Defendants' own research of consumer sentiment demonstrates that smokers perceived low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, as an alternative to quitting. BAT noted that "[i]t is useful to consider lights more as a third alternative to quitting and cutting down — a branded hybrid of smokers' unsuccessful attempts to modify their habit on their own." A Study prepared for Philip Morris found, "In point of fact, smoking an ultra low tar cigarette seems to relieve some of the guilt of smoking and provide an excuse not to quit."

Evidence of smokers choosing low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, over "full-flavor" cigarettes is apparent by the trend in market share of low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, during the Class Period. Between 1967 and 1981, the market share of low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, rose from 2% to 56%, and by 2000, they accounted for 87.1% of total domestic cigarettes sales.

During the Class Period, investors viewed low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, as a primary component of Defendants' earnings growth. An R.J. Reynolds executive quoted in a trade magazine in 1977 stated: "[t]he low 'tar' market is where the action is today . . . and I firmly believe the company that leads in this category will lead the tobacco industry." Additionally, a Philip Morris internal marketing plan titled "Five Year Plan 1979 — 1983" stated that one of the company's domestic objectives was to "[o]ffer a full line of products to insure the capability to respond to changing market conditions," and to "[c]ontinue to emphasize products positioned in growth segments (such as low-tar)." This document additionally projected that "growth in the low-tar segment is expected to be the most significant category trend," and that "[n]ew products . . . will all be in the low-tar category. . . ." Analysts following the tobacco industry for securities firms during the Class Period also had noted the importance of the low-tar segment to the Defendants. According to a securities analyst quoted in a 1977 Wall Street Journal article, "The winner of the low-tar derby will be the market leader in the next 10 years . . . '[I]n the foreseeable future,' a cigarette company has to be a strong participant in the low-tar market to maintain profit margins. . . . "

During the Class Period, low-tar cigarettes sales, which include "light" cigarette sales, came not just from smokers who were looking for a healthier alternative to "full-flavor" cigarettes, but from all market segments. According to another securities analyst quoted in the 1977 Wall Street Journal article noted above, "[l]ow-tar cigarettes used to be like the diet soft drinks, in vogue among the older folks who are worried about their health; now they have become a product of more general interest." This statement is consistent with the growing market share of low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, during the Class Period, culminating with the near-90% market share they have today.

Based on the evidence cited above, public perception during the Class Period was that had Defendants not sold low-tar cigarettes, those smokers who chose to smoke low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, would no longer have had an "excuse not to quit." In other words, investors believed that low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, met consumer demand for a product that could mitigate existing fears about the correlation of higher tar and nicotine levels with an increased risk of developing smoking-related diseases, thereby allowing Defendants to retain otherwise lost sales and achieve high earnings growth during the Class Period.

In the absence of low-tar cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes, and the sales they generated, the present values of Defendants' expected future earnings streams would have been less than what was observed during the Class Period.

C. The correlation of Defendants' stock prices with public announcements regarding both the dangers of smoking and the relative health aspects of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes.

According to the Efficient Capital Markets Hypothesis, securities prices in efficient markets incorporate all available public information. One way to determine whether prices incorporate new and relevant publicly available information is to conduct an event study to identify causes of significant changes in the price of a stock, net of market effects, and examine what information was disclosed about a company's financial condition and prospects immediately preceding these price changes. I have employed an event study in order to determine whether new public announcements regarding either the dangers of smoking or the relative health aspects of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes contain relevant information to Defendants' financial health, thereby significantly impacting Defendants' stock prices. The analysis entails regression analysis and an event study, which are described in the Appendix to this report.

My preliminary analysis indicates that there is a strong correlation between changes in Defendants' stock prices and public announcements regarding either the dangers of smoking or the relative health aspects of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes. The following examples illustrate this relationship.

On September 16, 1963, the New York Times reported that a leading Washington newsletter warned that an impending government report linking smoking to cancer and heart conditions (i.e. the January 11, 1964, U.S. Surgeon General's report) could be more severe than originally expected. The shares of Philip Morris, R.J. Reynolds, Lorillard, and American Tobacco each declined significantly on that date. Philip Morris' share price decline from $75.875 on September 13, to $74.000 on September 16, a decline of 2.5%. R.J. Reynolds share price declined from $40.250 on September 13, to $38.500 on September 16, a decline of 3.9%. American Tobacco's share price declined from $28.125 on September 13, to $27.250 on September 16, or a decline of 3.1%.

Later that same year, on November 11, 1963, Dr. Theodor Abelin, a Harvard epidemiologist, presented the results of his analysis, which concluded that the life expectancy of white American men 50 years of age would be 1.4 years greater if none of the smoked. Additionally, on November 11, 1963, the U.S. Surgeon General stated that the U.S. report on the relationship between smoking and disease (i.e. the January 11, 1964, U.S. Surgeon General's report) would be issued by the end of the year. Lorillard's share price declined from $45.375 on November 11, to $43.750 on November 12, a decline of 3.6%. Liggett and Myers' share price declined from $73.250 on November 11, to $70.750 on November 12, a decline of 3.4%.

Following a Federal Communications Commission announcement on January 9, 1964, that it was considering acting on its own to regulate cigarette advertising on radio and television in light of the January 11, 1964, U.S. Surgeon General's report (which warned of cigarettes' part in causing cancer and other diseases), several Defendants' shares declined significantly. Philip Morris' share price declined from $73.000 on January 17, to $70.750 on January 20, for a decline of 3.1%. R.J. Reynolds' share price declined from $40.625 on January 17, to $39.000 on January 20, a decline of 4.0%. Lorillard's share price declined from $43.000 on January 17, to $40.875 on January 20, a decline of 4.9%. Liggett and Myers' share price declined from $74.125 on January 17, to $72.250 on January 20, a decline of 2.5%. American Tobacco's share price declined from $27.625 on January 17, to $26.625 on January 17, to $26.500 on January 20, a decline of 4.1%.

On February 5, 1970, an experiment conducted by American Cancer Society scientists found that 12 out of a sample of 86 dogs taught to smoke cigarettes developed lung cancer. The ACS said the findings "effectively refute contentions by cigarette manufacturing interests that there was not cigarette-cancer link, and any claims to the contrary were only 'statistical.'" Philip Morris' share price decline from $34.000 on February 4, to $31.500 on February 5, a decline of 7.4%. R.J. Reynolds' share price declined from $41.375 on February 4, to $38.000 on February 5, a decline of 8.2%. Liggett and Myers' share price declined from $32.375 on February 4, to $31.125 on February 5, a decline of 3.9%. American Tobacco's share price declined from $33.125 on February 4, to $31.250 on February 5, a decline of 5.7%.

Not all news concerning health-related issues and smoking adversely affected Defendants' stock prices. On April 17, 1963, the New York Times reported that resurgence in tobacco shares was attributed to the favorable acceptance of Liggett and Myers' new king-size filter Lark cigarettes, which was being test-marketed in Columbus, Ohio and upstate New York. The New York Times also noted that Liggett had announced in the previous month that it believed the new brand offered more protection against the volatile ingredients in smoke. Several Defendants' shares rose significantly. Philip Morris' share price increased from $86.000 on April 16, to $88.250 on April 17, an increase of 2.6%. R.J. Reynolds' share price increased from $44.750 on April 16, to $46.250 on April 17, an increase of 3.4%. Lorillard's share price increased from $53.500 on April 16, to $54.875 on April 17, an increase of 2.6%. Liggett and Myers' share price increased from $77.500 on April 16, to $81.125 on April 17, an increase of 4.7%. American Tobacco's share price increased from $32.500 on April 16, to $33.875 on April 17, an increase of 4.2%.

On October 13, 1966, a member of the U.S. Surgeon General's advisory committee spoke of a "breakthrough" in isolating a major cancer-causing element in cigarette smoke. Later that day, the member clarified his remarks, stating that he intended to imply that additional identification and isolation of harmful agents can generally be expected from the research efforts undertaken after the Surgeon General's report was made public, not that any specific "breakthrough" was imminent. Despite the confusion surrounding these public announcements, several of Defendants' stock prices reacted positively and significantly to the prospect of healthier cigarettes. Philip Morris' share price increased from $28.000 on October 13, to $29.750 on October 14, an increase of 6.3%. R.J. Reynolds' share price increased from $35.500 on October 13, to $37.625 on October 14, an increase of 6.0%. Liggett and Myers' share price increased from $69.000 on October 13, to $71.500 on October 14, an increase of 3.6%. American Tobacco's share price increased from $30.625 on October 13, to $32.375 on October 14, an increase of 5.7%.

Similarly, on July 12, 1967, Defendants' stock prices rose sharply on reports that Columbia University would announce a new development related to the reductions of health hazards of cigarette smoking the following day. On July 13, 1967, Columbia University officially announced that it had acquired the rights to a "revolutionary new cigarette filter which reduces inhaled tar and nicotine to one-third or less of the level attained by conventional filters." Philip Morris' share price increased from $50.375 on July 11, to $53.750 on July 12, an increase of 6.7%. R.J. Reynolds' share price increased from $39.000 on July 11, to $42.500 on July 12, an increase of 9.0%. Lorillard's share price increased from $60.000 on July 11, to $63.375 on July 12, an increase of 5.6%. Liggett Myers' share price increased from $74.000 on July 11, to $75.750 on July 12, an increase of 2.4%. American Tobacco's share price increased from $34.000 on July 11, to $36.250 on July 12, an increase of 6.6%.

The next day, in response to the Columbia University [report], the U.S. Surgeon General said late on July 13, 1967 that no cigarette filter could give complete protection even it removed all of the tars and nicotine from the smoke. Several Defendants' stock prices declined significantly. Philip Morris' share price declined from $54.000 on July 13, to $51.750 on July 14, a decline of 4.2%. R.J. Reynolds' share price declined from $44.000 on July 13, to $42.000 on July 14, a decline of 4.5%. American Tobacco's share price declined from $37.500 on July 13, to $36.000 on July 14, a decline of 4.0%.

Event study analysis confirms that significant changes in Defendants' share prices, after netting market effects, were associated with unexpected material new information concerning both the dangers of smoking and the relative health aspects of smoking "light" or low-tar cigarettes on the dates mentioned in this section.

This report is based upon a standard analysis. Blaine F. Nye was qualified to make the analysis and appears to have made it in good faith with an appropriate effort at accuracy. His report and proposed testimony comply with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. No reason proffered by defendants supports exclusion.

m. Richard W. Pollay

Defendants continue to challenge the report of Dr. Richard W. Pollay even though the court had already found his report and proposed testimony admissible. He is currently Professor Emeritus of Marketing at the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, where he is also Curator of the History of Advertising Archives. He has an MBA in Marketing and a Ph.D. in Consumer Behavior, both from the University of Chicago. He has published research extensively for over 35 years in the areas of advertising and its effects, consumer attitudes toward advertising and advertising history. He has taught courses at the undergraduate, MBA and Ph.D. levels concerning advertising and its practical management and related research methodologies, both in commercial practice and in academic research. He serves on the editorial boards of, and reviews manuscripts for, many academic journals. He lists a huge bibliography relevant to his proposed testimony, including publications on tobacco.

As Curator of the History of Advertising Archives, he is responsible for the Tobacco Industry Promotion Series (TIPS), an extensive collection of materials on cigarette promotion. TIPS includes (a) over 10,000 US cigarette ads and related merchandising materials, (b) related documents obtained in the course of serving as an expert witness in various trials, (c) notes taken from both tobacco and advertising trade sources (e.g., Advertising Age, Advertising Selling, Marketing and Media Decisions, Printers' Ink, and various United States tobacco journals), (d) compilations of research done by others, and (e) a special interest library on tobacco advertising, including government reports.

For the past 15 years he has been working extensively on cigarette advertising and its history, publishing over 100 research work products as working papers or in peer reviewed journals. In general these concern the promotional tactics employed by the cigarette industry and the psychology of persuasion. Of note are his contributions on the role of advertising to the United States Surgeon General's Reports on youth (1994), minorities (1998), and women (2000). He has also written on the marketing of "light" cigarettes for the National Cancer Institute ("NCI") (2000). In 2001 this included serving as a co-author of Monograph 13. Other research and reports have explored current practices and historical aspects of various aspects of cigarette marketing such as the targeting of youth, the targeting of racial minorities, the failures of self-regulation, the use of public relations, the marketing of filtered and seemingly safer "low yield" cigarettes, and event sponsorships and promotion.

Dr. Pollay's report reads in part as follows:

SCOPE OF THE REPORT AND OVERVIEW

6. This report concerns the evidence I am aware of regarding the marketing and advertising of cigarettes and the efforts of companies in the cigarette industry to convey a health reassurance message to consumers. This is based primarily upon previously published research, my experience serving as an expert witness in both trials assessing the constitutionality of Federal Canadian law regarding cigarette advertising, and my review of advertising, marketing, and internal company documents from the sources noted above.

7. This report will show that the cigarette companies, through marketing and advertising for various cigarettes, and low tar and light cigarettes in particular, intended to convey the perception that such cigarettes were safer and/or healthier alternatives to regular or full-flavor cigarettes.

THE FUNCTIONS AND MANAGEMENT OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING

8. This review of the role of advertising in cigarette marketing provides: (a) definitions and descriptions of advertising and promotional management terminology; (b) an historical perspective on cigarette advertising and its impact; and (c) a systematic understanding of cigarette advertising management in the contemporary period. The principles of advertising and its management, which are universal to all jurisdictions, are illustrated by reference to internal tobacco company documents. These documents serve to illustrate examples of the industry's targeting of health concerned smokers to offer them false reassurances. Before discussing these practices in detail, some definitions and a historical overview of cigarette advertising are in order.

9. The world of advertising is immensely diverse in styles, forms, and functions. This diversity results from the range of human enterprise, the heterogeneity of consumers, the variety of situations for advertisers, the multiple advertising media, the several possible purposes for advertising, and the creativity of the professional creators of advertising. What this diversity shares is the identified sponsor and the sponsor's ultimate interest in inducing sales. Advertising is the professional execution of commercial communications.

10. Advertising has been defined by the American Marketing Association as "Any paid form of non-personal presentation and promotion of ideas, goods or services by an identified sponsor." It is derived from the Latin advertere, meaning to turn [the mind]. A prominent textbook elaborates: "Advertising is salesmanship, and it is paid for by a firm, a person or a group with a particular point of view. The message advocates that point of view, and its goal is to create awareness, attitude, or behavior that is favorable to that advocacy position. The message attempts to inform and to persuade; it is intentionally biased, and there is no intent to present a balanced point of view."'

11. While the generation of sales and profits is the ultimate justification for corporate advertising spending, the goals of advertising are often defined in terms of intermediate goals and stages instrumental to ultimate sales. Advertising and consumer behavior texts, for example, discuss advertising to promote consumer awareness, interest and desire, to place a brand in consumers' memories, or to change consumer attitudes and images in various ways. Advertising seeks to enhance the consumers' perceptions of the product. It chooses words and pictures carefully to glamorize the product and/or its users, to induce purchase and consumption as the result.

12. Why do firms advertise? The obvious and most general answer is that firms advertise because it is profitable for them to do so. Firms spend budgets on promotional efforts if, and only if, they believe that the benefits — long term profits from that spending — outweigh the costs.

13. The selection and creation of specific advertising media and messages will depend on a situational analysis, the nature of the target audience, and the specific goals of each component in an ad campaign. Different situations, such as the brand history, the competitive circumstances, cost constraints, or the product advantages may determine strategy. So too may knowledge of the target audience's age, brand awareness, income, attitudes, product experience or predispositions. Advertising could seek awareness (curiosity or reminder), attitudinal change (images and beliefs), changes in affect (feelings), and/or action (buying or consuming). Different audiences and goals suggest different tactical choices in messages and media.

14. Advertising creative strategy must specify at least the target market (audience), the essential and supporting message ideas, and the tone and style of the advertising. This strategy statement, also sometimes known as a creative briefing or copy platform, informs the creative staff of the advertising agency: the copywriting and art directors. Notable in most advertising creative guidelines is the emphasis on the visual component of the ads. The so-called "lifestyle" advertising provides imagery that is rich in connotations. The choice of models, setting and activities can not only display attractive people as consumers of a brand, but can also display attitudes, emotional experience, social status, etc.

15. Research plays an important role at every stage of the advertising planning process. It guides the strategic choices and tactical executions. A great variety of research techniques are commonly used, ranging from interviews and small group discussions to large surveys; from paper and pencil questionnaires to high technology covert observations. These can provide many benefits, such as analyses of the various population segments, psychological insights and profiling of target consumers, pretesting of alternative advertising concepts, shaping advertising media plans, verifying the attention getting power of advertising visuals, determining the impression created by the visual imagery, and testing the impact of an ad or campaign after deployment.

16. The results aid strategic decision making and the positioning (portraying) of various products offered, the overall strategy being to offer a great variety of products so that each consumer can find a product that seems almost custom made for his or her self image and lifestyle. Consumer research helps identify ways of "positioning" the products so that the ad target audience will perceive it as meeting their needs, fitting their self image and attractive.

THE HISTORY OF CIGARETTE ADVERTISING AND MARKETING

17. Only a long term historical perspective allows for the full appreciation of cigarette advertising and marketing's impacts. Many of advertising's major effects are gradual and cumulative over time, effecting psychological changes such as attitudes and images. The total impact of advertising cannot be seen and appreciated in studies with a short time focus, such as studies of a single campaign or a single ad. That being said, it is necessary to review the history of cigarette marketing and advertising generally in order to understand the marketing and advertising for light cigarettes in particular.

18. As discussed in more detail below, the cigarette companies have been aware of smokers' desires for "health reassurance" since the 1950s at the latest, with some brands making health claims and using athletes and doctors and nurses in ads in the 1930s and 1940s. The cigarette companies have targeted smokers seeking a health reassurance by marketing and advertising purportedly safer cigarettes such as filtered cigarettes, menthol cigarettes, low tar cigarettes, and ultimately light cigarettes with explicit and implicit health claims.

A. Cigarette Companies Initially Responded to Smokers' Desires for Health Reassurance with Filtered Cigarettes

19. During the early 1950s, scientific and popular articles that presented lung cancer research findings initiated what the tobacco industry termed the "health scare," as consumers became increasingly concerned about the potential health risks incurred from smoking.

20. The cigarette companies initially responded to this health scare by introducing filtered products, which purportedly reduced harmful constituents of smoke. In 1952, Lorillard introduced Kent, in 1953 Liggett introduced L M, and in 1954, Philip Morris, R.J. Reynolds, American Tobacco, and Brown Williamson followed with their own filter brands. By 1954, filtered cigarettes had grown to 10% of the cigarette market. Soon thereafter, new menthol-filtered products were also introduced, such as Salem, Newport and Oasis, capitalizing on the healthful reputation that menthol already had, due to its use in cold remedies and related medicinal applications.

21. Advertising during the early 1950s promoted filters as the technological fix to the health scare and contained health-related statements that varied in explicitness. For example, a Viceroy advertisement proclaimed, "The Nicotine and Tars Trapped by Viceroy's Double-Filtering Action Cannot Reach Your Throat or Lungs!" and that it was "Better for Your Health." Kent advertisements claimed, "sensitive smokers get real health protection with new Kent" and "[Kent] takes out more nicotine and tars than any other leading cigarette." Advertisements for other brands of cigarettes stated, "Just What the Dr. Ordered" (L M), "Inhale to your Heart's Content" (Embassy), "No adverse effects to the nose, throat and sinuses from smoking Chesterfield," and "The Secret to Life is in the Filter" (Life). . . .

22. In 1955, in response to conflicting claims regarding tar and filtration, the FTC published Cigarette Advertising Guides which banned all mention of tar, nicotine, and filtration when "not established by competent scientific proof." The Cigarette Advertising Guides also banned references to "throat, larynx, lungs, nose or other parts of the body," and to "digestion, energy, nerves or doctors."

23. After 1955, cigarette advertisements stressed good taste, flavor, and enjoyment using language implying relative safety such as describing filters as effective, complete, superior and yielding smoke that was described as softened, gentled, mild or smooth, and delivering "more of what you smoke a filter for" (Viceroy). Analogies were made to filtration systems for water purification, hospital operating rooms and atomic submarine air quality. Parliament sold its "extra margin" of filtration by comparisons to car seat belts, helmets and other safety gear. Because the cigarette manufacturers knew that health fears persisted, filtered brands were advertised heavily, capitalizing on the health image these cigarettes had acquired prior to imposition of the Cigarette Advertising Guides. . . .

B. The Cigarette Companies Touted the Reduction in Tar as a Health Benefit

24. In 1957, Reader's Digest published two articles regarding the effectiveness of filters and setting forth tar and nicotine yields of various brands for the first time since 1952. These articles concluded that the tar and nicotine yields of many filtered cigarettes were no better than those of non-filtered cigarettes. These articles set off the famous "Tar Derby," a period during which Reader's Digest and Consumer Reports published regular reports on tar and nicotine yields of different cigarette brands leading cigarette manufacturers to drastically cut tar levels in order to gain a competitive advantage. After remaining virtually unchanged for three decades, sales-weighted tar and nicotine yields dropped substantially during this period.

25. Advertising during the Tar Derby shifted to emphasis on tar and nicotine reduction. The cigarette companies relied on the tar and nicotine yields reported by Reader's Digest and Consumer Reports as "scientific proof" in order to comply with the Cigarette Advertising Guides. Manufacturers took advantage of reported tar and nicotine yields to establish themselves as "healthy" during a period of intense advertising claims, with advertising containing competing claims such as "lowest tar of all low-tar cigarettes," "today's Marlboro — 22 percent less tar, 34 percent less nicotine," "significantly less tars and nicotine than any other leading filter brand," and "less tars and more taste . . . they said it couldn't be done.". . . .

26. While the industry had explicitly catered to the general public's health fears, some began to worry that touting the health benefits of low tar cigarettes could hurt the cigarette industry as a whole. In 1958 the Tobacco Industry Research Committee ("TIRC") called upon the cigarette companies to downplay the health attributes of low tar cigarettes because of the negative implications such advertising raised for cigarettes in general. In a letter from C. C. Little, Scientific Director of the TIRC, to Tim Hartnett, Chairman of the TIRC, dated August 26, 1958, Director Little wrote: "As Scientific Director of the Tobacco Industry Research Committee it is my duty to warn the members of that body of the serious and dangerous effects on its research program if the present trend continues toward the emphasis on 'tar reduction' in advertising of cigarettes." The letter acknowledges the perceptions of the public and the scientific community that "'tar' reduction is advanced as a specific preventive or ameliorative measure." Director Little insisted that publicity measures be taken in order to distance the tobacco industry from the very health claims that it was seeking to profit from: "Although this serious danger exists, I believe that it can and should be eliminated by prompt and unanimous action by the industry" through an announcement to the public that "the increase in manufacture of filtered cigarettes is a response to public demand and to nothing else."

27. Despite these concerns, the cigarette industry continued to heavily promote the filtered and reduced tar cigarettes that consumers now reasonably presumed to be healthier/safer. Advertising expenditures increased substantially during this period, rising by 179% between 1950 and 1960. Of this, a disproportionately greater amount was for these filtered and "new, improved" products as the firms withdrew advertising support for the traditional unfiltered brands and product varieties, fading in market potential.

28. In 1960, the cigarette companies entered into a voluntary agreement with the FTC which thereafter prohibited tar and nicotine claims in advertising, concluding the Tar Derby. The conclusion of the Tar Derby resulted in another shift in advertising, as described in Printer's Ink, the leading trade journal of the advertising industry at the time:

The pendulum swung back again in cigarette advertising during 1960, completely erased, at the "urging" of the Federal Trade Commission, are the boxscores on tar and nicotine. Once more the industry is back to its traditional and usually successful course — advertising flavour, taste and pleasure against a backdrop of beaches, ski slopes and languid lakes. It is a formula that works, as all-time sales show. . . . And this new mood in advertising will probably prevail for some time, now that the FTC has insisted that wildly competitive copy is generally distasteful."

29. For the next several years, cigarette advertising lacked references to tar and nicotine. Since there was no longer any competitive advantage to doing so, the cigarette companies stopped reducing tar and nicotine levels and, in some cases, began to increase them. Kent, for example, went from 14 mg. in 1961 to 16 mg. in 1963 and 19 mg. in 1966.

30. In response to the FTC's prohibition on explicit tar and nicotine claims, and fearing the legal consequences of explicit health claims, internal tobacco company documents began to contain discussions about the need for implied health reassurances in marketing and advertising.

C. The Cigarette Companies Sought to Capitalize on the Perceived Health Benefit of Reduced Tar Through the Introduction of Low Tar and Light Cigarette Products

31. Another surge in the health scare occurred in 1964 when the first Surgeon General's Report on Smoking and Health established cigarette smoking as the cause of lung cancer. The cigarette companies were well aware, based upon market research they conducted, of smokers' desires for health reassurance as well as the perceived health benefit of low tar cigarettes.

32. In the late 1960s, the cigarette companies began recognizing that a large proportion of smokers had health concerns that could be assuaged by new products consumers perceived as safer. For example, Philip Morris concluded, "The illusion of filtration is as important as the fact of filtration. . . . Therefore any entry should be by a radically different method of filtration but need not be any more effective."

33. The cigarette companies sought to capitalize on and target smokers' health fears with the introduction of new low tar and light cigarettes that would be perceived as safer. The term "light" was intentionally chosen to mean lower tar. Within a few years the connection between "light" and "low tar" had become so solidified that "[p]erceptually, category consumers do not currently seem to differentiate between 'Lights' and 'Low Tars' as product modifiers. Each appears to communicate that the 'brand' is lower in tar than cigarettes in another sub-category." In fact, each pack of Marlboro Lights had the phrase "Lowered Tar Nicotine" printed on it from 1971, when they were introduced to the market until 2003.

34. The cigarette companies knew that health was the motivating factor for smokers switching to lower tar brands:

Those who smoked their current brand for less than a year switched for health purposes — to reduce the tar and nicotine level instead of quitting.

Most smokers . . . do not really understand what tar and nicotine are, or the difference between the two. "Tar and nicotine" is a term commonly used as a single word. . . .

Those who smoke low tar and nicotine cigarettes generally do so because they believe such cigarettes are "better for you" — there is less tar and nicotine to do long-term damage.

The very fact, then, that a smoker has decided to switch from a full-flavor cigarette to a low delivery cigarette tells us something very important about him: he is concerned about his health, and he is willing to do something about it.

35. The cigarette companies also knew that successful advertising had to allay consumers' fears about smoking: "[A]dvertising for low delivery . . . should be constructed so as not to provoke anxiety about health, but to alleviate it, and enable the smoker to feel assured about the habit and confident in maintaining it over time.

36. Since the introduction of low tar and light cigarettes, and continuing to the present, the cigarette companies have intentionally marketed and advertised these cigarettes to convey a health benefit over regular, full flavor cigarettes. As discussed in more detail below, the health benefits of low tar and light cigarettes have been portrayed by a variety of means, as follows: in light-colored packaging and advertisements; claiming low tar yields; with claims of technological breakthroughs; using pristine imagery; in comparison to regular, full-flavor cigarettes; as alternatives to quitting; and in analogy of other health seeking behavior.

Light Colors. White or pale colors have been used in advertising to communicate light and low tar brands: "'Light-lighter-lightest' were achieved by insistence on lighter presentations — product story imagery — white packs — pale colours — mildness dominated copy." For example, through most of the 1990s, the Parliament Lights advertising campaign consistently used models dressed in all white placed in white environments. Kent, Marlboro Lights, More Lights, Pall Mall Lights, Virginia Slim Lights, Cambridge have similarly used white and pale colors in advertising. White or pale colors have similarly been used in packaging to communicate light and low tar brands: "Red packs connote strong flavour, green packs connote coolness or menthol and white packs suggest that a cigaret [sic] is low-tar. White means sanitary and safe."

Touting Low Tar Yields. Low tar and light cigarette ads touted low tar numbers, with some even claiming to have the lowest tar of any brand on the market: "Only 11 mg tar" (Benson Hedges Lights); "Kent Golden Lights; Lowest in Tar of All These Low-Tar Brands"; "Only 8 mg Tar" (Kent Golden Lights Menthol); and "A third less tar than the leading filter 85" (Pall Mall Light 100). Most recently Carlton had encouraged ad viewers to "Think of Number 1."

Science and Technology. When Merits were introduced to the marketplace, the advertising was designed "to communicate the technological breakthrough which MERIT represented. . . . To achieve these goals, a bold and aggressive strategy was devised featuring headlines and ads that had scientific substance and validity. . . . The ads were written in a journalistic, reportorial style to be precise, pointed, and absolutely believable. . . . Newspapers and magazines were utilized nationwide to get the complete product story to consumers. Massive outdoor billboard displays, subway signs, taxi-tops and exterior bus posters would be used to create brand awareness.". . . .

Pristine Imagery. Pristine imagery . . . ha[s] been used [to] convey . . . lightness and healthfulness. For example, ads for Marlboro Ultra Light, Pall Mall Light, Raleigh Light, Merit Ultra Lights have featured pictures dominated by fresh air, water, and mountain scenes. Merit was careful to avoid any suggestions of danger. "[Iln 1983, we adopted the sea campaign . . . we showed young people on pleasure boats enjoying their leisure time and smoking Merit. We deliberately tried to avoid dangerous looking water.". . . .

Comparisons to Regular, Full-Flavor Brands. Many light cigarette advertisements stressed that the product was merely a lower tar version of the original brand, thereby implying a health benefit in comparison to the regular counterpart: "New Camel Lights 100's! The satisfaction of Camel Lights 100's solves the low tar/low taste problem"; "The spirit of Marlboro in a low tar cigarette"; "The only low tar menthol cigarette with Salem satisfaction. Enjoy the satisfying cool taste you expect from Salem. Salem Lights and Lights 100's, the Lights that say enjoy"; "What's in a name? Satisfaction. If the name is Camel. All the flavor and satisfaction that's been missing in your low tar cigarette. With a name like Camel Lights, you know exactly what to expect" . . .

Alternatives to Quitting. Light and low tar cigarette advertisements as an alternative to quitting, thereby implying it was just as safe to smoke such cigarettes as to quit. A True advertisement proclaims, "Considering all I'd heard, I decided to either quit or smoke true. I smoke True." Similarly, a Vantage advertisement states:

To Smoke or not to smoke. That is the question. With all the slings and arrows that have been aimed at smoking you may well be wondering why you smoke at all. If you don't smoke nobody is going to urge you to start. But if you do smoke, you may enjoy it so much you don't want to stop. There's the rub. Because if you do smoke, what do you smoke? The cigarettes of the past provided a lot of smoking pleasure but they also delivered a lot of the 'tar' and nicotine critics have aimed at. And most of the new wave brands with low 'tar' and nicotine taste like a lot of hot air. But now Vantage has entered the scene. Vantage is the cigarette that succeeds in cutting down 'tar' and nicotine without compromising flavor. While Vantage isn't the lowest 'tar' and nicotine cigarette you'll find, it certainly is the lowest one you'll enjoy smoking. If you smoke, try a pack of Vantage. And if you don't, why not show this ad to someone who does. It might settle the question.

Comparisons to Other Health Seeking Behavior, e.g., Dieting. Advertisements have compared smoking low tar and light cigarettes to healthful activities as a mean of conveying a health benefit. For example, a Doral ad equated smoking low tar cigarettes to dieting:

How I lost 700 mg. of 'tar' the first week . . . without losing out on taste. I'm not too big in the willpower department. But I lost 700 milligrams of 'tar' the first week on what I call 'The Doral Diet.' Now I can still enjoy smoking, and cut down on 'tar' and nicotine, too. Doral satisfied my appetite for smoking because it tastes good. Compared to what I used to smoke, each Doral cigarette is 5 milligrams lower in 'tar.' For a pack a day smoker like me, my Doral Diet really adds up.

* * * *

37. As evidenced above, many low tar and light cigarette advertisements use implicit, indirect, and/or incomplete claims and encourage consumers to draw their own conclusions as to products benefits. Such advertisements are likely to be more persuasive than advertisements that actually draw the conclusion for the consumer. For example, if Marlboro Lights are said to have less tar and nicotine and if it is understood that tar and nicotine have negative health consequences, the smoker is led syllogistically to the conclusion that Marlboro Lights must be healthier because they contain less of the "bad stuff."

38. The cigarette companies' enormous advertising budgets have facilitated the pervasive exposure that is critical to successful advertising. . . .

39. The nature of cigarettes both advertised and purchased changed over the decades with low tar/light cigarettes coming to dominate both categories. . . .

CONCLUSION

40. Since the 1950s at the latest, the cigarette companies have been aware of smokers' growing health concerns and their corresponding need for health reassurance. The cigarette companies have touted the purported health benefits of new brands and technologies such as filtered cigarettes, menthol cigarettes, low tar, and ultimately light cigarettes, in order to capitalize on smokers' needs for health reassurance.

The cigarette companies used marketing and advertising to target those smokers seeking to convey health reassurance. The cigarette companies were very concerned with creating the perception of healthfulness whether or not they actually had a safer or healthier cigarette to market.

41. The advent of light cigarettes simply represented a new product development, which allowed the companies to further capitalize on smokers' health concerns. As with filtered cigarettes, menthol cigarettes, and low tar cigarettes, advertising for light cigarettes was intended to convey health and/or safety attributes, albeit through more implicit means.

Defendants contend that Dr. Pollay should not be permitted to opine about the intent of defendants based on their advertising. As an expert in marketing he is qualified to infer from the nature, timing, and intensity of an advertising campaign what the intention of the advertisers was. While this court believed on early admissions that the meaning of internal documents of defendants could not be the basis for his opinion, it now concludes that such documents, if they are the normal kinds of documents used in deciding upon an advertising campaign, may be used by the witness to support his opinions as to the nature and intention of the advertising.

Since, as Dr. Pollay concludes, skillful advertisers design their campaign to communicate ideas and feelings to the public they seek to influence, Dr. Pollay can use his expertise to infer from the content of the advertisements how the typical smoker or potential smoker would have understood the defendants' communications.

Defendants' experts and their analysis take a position contrary to Dr. Pollay. The jury is in a position to decide. Richard W. Pollay's opinion and proposed testimony meet the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

n. Robert N. Proctor

Dr. Robert N. Proctor provided a report dated February 28, 2005 and another dated December 18, 2005, elaborating on the earlier report. He is a Professor of the History of Science at Stanford University, and a tenured member of the History Department at that university. He holds a doctoral degree in the History of Science from Harvard University and is the author of four books on the history of science and dozens of articles in peer-reviewed academic journals, including journals of history, science, medicine, and public health. He has won several prizes for scholarship, including the Arthur Viseltear Prize from the American Public Health Association and the General Anthropology Award from the American Anthropological Association. He has held fellowships or grants from the Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the Holocaust Memorial Museum, the National Library of Medicine, the Max Planck-Institute for the History of Science in Berlin, the Howard Foundation, the Hamburg Institute for Social Research in Germany, the National Center for Human Genome Research, the National Endowment for the Humanities, the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford, the American Council of Learned Societies, the Andrew Mellon Foundation, the Woodrow Wilson Foundation (as Charlotte W, Newcome Fellow), and the Shelby Cullom Davis Center for Historical Studies at Princeton University.

He was asked by plaintiffs' attorneys to comment on the following three questions:

(1) When was there a scientific consensus established that "Light" cigarettes are no less harmful than regulars? And can we expect the public to have known Lights were no safer, prior to the establishment of this consensus?

(2) What evidence is there that the tobacco industry realized that Lights were no safer than regular cigarettes prior to the development of this consensus?

(3) What kind of activities did the tobacco industry engage in to keep people believing Lights were safer, despite a lack of evidence to support this? And when did consumers become aware of the Light cigarette fraud?

In his report Dr. Proctor states:

My opinions on these questions, in summary, are as follows: (1) The scientific consensus that Light cigarettes are no safer than regular cigarettes does not emerge until the publication of Monograph 13 by the National Cancer Institute in 2001. Prior to this time, there was no way for smokers to have known it was "no safer" smoking Lights. (2) Long before the consensus of 2001, however, tobacco industry authorities were aware of evidence that Lights were not necessarily safer than regulars; indeed they were aware of this when Lights were introduced in 1971. (3) Despite having evidence that Lights were not safer, the tobacco industry continued to market Lights with implied assurances of safety.

The industry knew that smokers regarded Lights as safer and did nothing to dissuade them from this belief. Prior to the release of the internal documents in 1998, however, smokers had no way of knowing the industry had engaged in this fraud.

A. Preliminary Note on Consensus Formation

"Consensus" is not a concept commonly used by academic science historians; the term as popularly used — as when we speak of obtaining agreement at a meeting — often applies only imperfectly to changing scientific opinions, especially where competing or even politicized factions develop alternate understandings. Scientific understandings usually develop over time, and often cannot be traced to a single Golden Event or "Eureka" moment. And even when solid evidence does eventually persuade an interested community of scholars there are often "laggards" who may not accept the emerging consensus, even years after their colleagues have followed suit. Consensus is not achieved suddenly and everywhere at the same time; and it does not imply unanimity.

In thinking about how to date the emergence of a scientific consensus, it is useful to think about the different stages we may encounter as a phenomenon becomes recognized as real. For the sake of illustration, take the case of when tobacco is recognized as a cause of lung cancer. We can distinguish the following stages:

1. When was such a link first hypothesized? (1898)

2. When was evidence for such a link first published in peer-reviewed literature? (1920s)

3. When was evidence for such a link confirmed by other scholars? (1930s)

4. When were such links widely cited and discussed in medical literature? (beginning especially in Germany in the 1930s)

5. When were multiple methods deployed to buttress such a link? (1930s, '40s and '50s)

6. When do influential medical authorities confirm such a link, through widely-disseminated publications and official "consensus statements"? (1950s in the U.S. and Britain, somewhat earlier in Germany)

7. When is dissent from the consensus marginalized in the scientific community? (beginning in the 1950s and 1960s)

Two caveats should be recalled in such contexts. First is that scientific communities are often heterogeneous, and different communities may have different understandings, for various reasons. Evidence available to one group might not be familiar to or even available to another — this was the case with the tobacco industry's understanding of compensation, for example: knowledge of compensation was developed first and most elaborately inside the tobacco industry (where it was largely kept quiet) and only later appeared in the broader scientific literature.

A second and related caveat is (again) that consensus does not imply unanimity. Rarely is any consensus established without dissent, which can come from numerous sources (ignorance, adherence to an alternate theory, inherent uncertainties, natural lag times due to impediments to information flow, etc.). And in coming to a proper understanding of dissent, it is often useful to look at the social forces — or "interests" — that may be involved in shaping the direction of a scientific discussion.

The point must also be made that formal organized "consensus statements" such as those presented in a Surgeon General's report or the NCI's Monograph 13 are the exception rather than the rule in science. No one had to form a commission to decide whether E = mc², or humans evolved from lower forms of life, or an asteroid impact killed the dinosaurs. Consensus statements often are demanded when there is resistance to controversial findings; this typically happens only in a climate of "high stakes," where organized interest groups are resisting scientific conclusions. The tobacco industry has a long history of trying to influence the rhetoric, conclusions, and kinds of evidence included in public statements assessing the hazards of cigarettes. Consensus reports such as those produced by the Institute of Medicine and National Cancer Institute have been generated specifically to clear up uncertainties about whether low yield cigarettes were safer.

Lights Are No Safer: A Scientific Consensus Emerges in 2001

In the public scientific community (vs. the internal research communities of the tobacco industry), the recognition that Light cigarettes are no less dangerous than regulars emerges fairly recently. The turning point is not until the early years of the 21st century, the single most important event being the 2001 publication of Monograph 13 by the National Cancer Institute.

Prior to this time, it was common to encounter assertions that smokers could reduce their risk of death and disease by switching to cigarettes lower in tar, nicotine or gas as measured by standardized smoking machines. Views of this sort can already be found in the 1950s and are commonplace throughout the 1960s, '70s and '80s, and even to a certain extent into the 1990s. Ernest Wynder and Dietrich Hoffmann of the Sloan-Kettering Institute for Cancer Research in New York, for example, believed that the lowering of tar in cigarettes (by chemical elimination, filtration, ventilation/airstream dilution, blending, or increasing burn rates) would show up in reduced lung cancer rates. Wynder and Hoffman recommended the reduction of tar and nicotine levels as "the best hope for a less harmful cigarette." Public health officials voiced similar opinion. This was a plausible recommendation given that 1) epidemiological studies showed that the risk of lung cancer increased with the number of cigarettes a person smoked, and 2) laboratory experiments showed that animals smeared with tobacco tars developed cancer in proportion to the amount of tar used and/or the duration of exposure. There was a "linear dose response" between exposure to tobacco tars and risk of cancer; consistent with other kinds of carcinogenic exposures, more tar, more cancer.

A number of epidemiological studies published in the 1960s and '70s seemed to support this (scientific) common sense, and from that time into the 1990s circa fifty studies were published on the health impact of changing cigarette designs, many of which indicated an apparent disease-risk reduction from the use of lower-yield products. Bross and Gibson in 1968, for example, found that smokers of filter-tipped cigarettes seemed to have a relative risk about 40 percent lower than smokers of unfiltered cigarettes. Bross and Gibson's work was reported in the New York Times and endorsed in the 1969 Surgeon General's report; again, this fit with the medical common sense that lowered exposures should mean reduced risks.

A number of medical authorities endorsed such a view, pointing out that while the best course of action was to quit (or never start), use of lower-yield products was a second best. In 1981, for example, the U.S. Surgeon General recommended that people consider switching to low yield cigarettes:

Overall, our judgment is unchanged from that of 1966 and 1979: smokers who are unwilling or as yet unable to quit are well advised to switch to cigarettes yielding less 'tar' and nicotine, provided they do not increase their smoking or change their smoking in other ways. . . . Smoking cigarettes with lower yield of 'tar' and nicotine reduces the risk of lung cancer . . . provided there is no compensatory increase in the amount smoked.

This is a transitional document of sorts, since the Surgeon General qualifies his remarks by noting that "compensatory behavior may negate any advantage of the lower yield product or even increase the health risk." The key shift from 1981 to 2001 is that the tentative formulation of the 1981 report ("may negate") is transformed in later reports into a more definite will negate.

Optimism for health benefits from low-tar cigarettes was also commonly heard from participants in the Tobacco Working Group (TWG), a joint industry-government venture established in the late 1960s to explore "safer" cigarette designs. Gio Gori, a founder of the TWG, in the 1970s made public statements that cigarettes being smoked in the 1970s were substantially safer than those smoked in the 1950s. Gori suggested that smoking a pack of 1970s low tar cigarettes would be no more dangerous than smoking one or two cigarettes from the 1950s.

Jonathan Samet in 1986 maintained that low yield cigarettes were offering a margin of safety: in an article that year in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Samet reported results of a study which seemed to indicate that Hispanic smokers of filter cigarettes suffered less from lung cancer than smokers of nonfilter cigarettes. (Samet later realized this was probably measuring not filter vs. nonfilter but rather filter v. "roll your own.") Also in 1986, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, a World Health Organization body, concluded that even though smokers of cigarettes with low 'tar' yields "tend to inhale to a greater extent than do smokers of cigarettes with high 'tar' yields," their intake of smoke components was nonetheless "reduced." Consistent with this "Lights are safer" consensus, the American Cancer Society in 1992 asked and then advised: "can't quit yet? Smoke less, especially low tar and nicotine cigarettes." Some scholars continued into the late 1990s believing that low tar cigarettes were reducing risks.

Gradually over time, however, it began to be realized that there were problems making such comparisons. The most important difficulty was the discrepancy that appeared to arise between the predictions of epidemiology and the actual disease rates suffered by smokers. Dramatically declining tar yields (as measured by Federal Trade Commission ratings) should have led to significantly reduced cancer mortality, but that was not happening.

A key piece of evidence came in the mid 1990s, when researchers at the American Cancer Society conducted a review of two large studies known as CPS I and CPS II (for "Cancer Prevention Study" I and II), the first covering smokers from 1960 to 1972, and the second comparing this first group with a 1980-86 follow-up. Smokers in the intervening period had shifted to lower tar cigarettes, and the expectation was that if risks were actually declining, then lung cancer rates should be lower for the later group than the earlier. In fact the opposite was observed: smokers in CPS II had a slightly higher lung cancer mortality than smokers in the CPS I group. Some scholars speculated that part of the increase might be due to the second group's starting to smoke at an earlier age or higher rates of smoking, but the judgment of a World Health Organization review is that neither of these has been able to explain the magnitude of the discrepancy from expectations. Doll et al. in England had made similar findings in their comparison of 20- and 40-year follow-ups of British physicians: the smokers in the second group (1971 to 1991) had higher rates of lung cancer than smokers in the first cohort (1951 to 1971). This again was not what one would have expected if lowered tar yields were reducing cancer risks.

Reviews of this evidence since this time have concluded that whatever benefits may have come from low tar products must have been trivial or nonexistent. This was the conclusion of a World Health Organization's IARC Report of 2002, the Institute of Medicine's Clearing the Smoke report from 2001, the Surgeon General's Report of 2004, and Monograph 13 of the National Cancer Institute. Monograph 13 has been the most significant of these assessments.

Compiled by fourteen of the world's leading experts in the field of tobacco health science, Monograph 13 concludes that contrary to previous expectations, the risks of smoking have not in fact changed over the past half a century. Machine-measured deliveries of tar, nicotine, and other toxins in cigarette smoke have declined by more than half since the 1950s, but this has not resulted in any noticeable benefit to smokers in the form of a reduced likelihood of dying from smoking-related diseases. That is partly because smokers when switching to lower-yield cigarettes increase the intensity with which they smoke those cigarettes; smokers are addicted, and puff harder or inhale deeper or smoke more to maintain the nicotine intake to which they've become accustomed. The industry has also designed cigarettes to be "flexible" or "elastic," allowing smokers to adjust their nicotine intake by altering their smoking behavior (by covering up the ventilation slits designed to dilute the inhaled smoke, for example). The net effect is that the lower-yield cigarettes introduced since the 1950s have not significantly reduced the hazards of smoking; indeed, in certain respects, low-tar and "Light" cigarettes are actually more dangerous.

Monograph 13 has brought about an important shift in our understanding of cancer causation; indeed it would be hard to name a more important document in the past 50 years of cancer research. Smoking remains the number one cause of preventable death in the United States, killing about 430,000 people every year. "Light" and/or low tar cigarettes have became the most popular form of tobacco consumption — accounting for more than 90 percent of all sales — which means that it won't be long before more Americans will be dying from smoking cigarettes of this sort than from any other single cause. Light cigarettes must already have killed hundreds of thousands of Americans — with an annual toll far exceeding the 16,000 who die from AIDS, for example, and probably more even than the 42,000 who die from traffic accidents. The discovery that Lights are no less lethal than regular cigarettes exceeds in historical importance even the discovery of secondhand smoke as a cancer/cardiovascular hazard (in the early 1980s). It is the most important breakthrough in cancer research of our generation.

As with any scientific breakthrough, it is possible to trace the evidentiary roots back in time. There are several key elements in the "Lights are no less lethal" revolution:

1. The observation that cancer rates have not declined as expected from the introduction of lower-yield cigarettes (the epi/mortality mismatch).

2. Recognition of the phenomenon of biobehavioral variation in cigarette smoking — especially the phenomenon of "compensation."

3. New use of biomarkers to measure the direct impact of smoking (vs. impacts assumed from the FTC's machine-measured yields).

4. New appreciation of previously-unrecognized forms of bias in early epidemiological studies, including the ignoring of compensation but also the "healthy switcher effect" and other forms of bias.

5. Recognition of changes in lung cancer histopathology, notably the increasing prevalence of deep lung adenocarcinomas, which seem to have been caused by the deeper inhalation prompted by "compensation."

6. The production (from litigation) of millions of pages of internal documents from the tobacco industry's files beginning in 1998, allowing the discovery of a long history of efforts to obstruct public recognition of tobacco health harms and to manipulate cigarette designs to keep smokers smoking.

Each of these helped contribute to the ultimate recognition that Lights are not safer. None of this happened overnight, however, and the historical record makes it clear that the evidence leading up to the consensus builds slowly throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The pieces of the puzzle are not assembled until 2001, with the publication of Monograph 13. How did this take place? I've already mentioned the CPS I and II turnaround, so we begin with compensation.

Though scattered elements of what eventually becomes known as "compensation" can be found far back in medical literature, and occasionally even in popular magazines, the phenomenon is not widely recognized in the public health community until the 1980s. That is partly because nicotine addiction itself was slow to be recognized in certain circles. The Surgeon General's report of 1964 refused to label smoking an addiction, and a formal U.S. government report on that topic doesn't appear until 1988. Why did it take so long for addiction to be appreciated? The tobacco industry itself of course had vigorously resisted any such classification, but addiction was also often viewed as a kind of psychopathology: addicts were people who used heroin and the like, not upstanding smokers of cigarettes who could often pass as productive members of society, A third element is that smokers didn't start trying to quit in large numbers until the 1960s and '70s, revealing both to smokers and their physicians how difficult it was to quit (and the stark realities of physical withdrawal).

Compensation was well understood by the industry in the 1960s, but was not widely appreciated outside the industry until some time later. Lynn Kozlowski's studies exploring the biobehavioral aspects of smoking were crucial for this wider reception. Kozlowski was one of the first "outsiders" to look at hole-vent blocking, and showed that if you look at how much tar and nicotine smokers actually inhale — as opposed to relying on the FTC's machine-reads for this — smokers were actually getting about the same amount of these poisons as were earlier generations of smokers.

This was an important first piece of the puzzle, and one that eventually helped explain the epidemiology/mortality mismatch. Epidemiological studies from the 1960s, '70s and '80s had most often taken machine-measured tar yields as measures of exposure, whereas later studies questioned and eventually rejected this. This was one of the mistakes of early epidemiology: failing to control for changing human smoking behavior in response to changing cigarette designs.

Biomarker studies were important in this context, showing that smokers of low tar and nicotine cigarettes did not have lower levels of nicotine and/or nicotine metabolites in their blood. This showed that people were getting a lot more tar and nicotine (and gas) from their cigarettes than was being revealed through the FTC's standardized smoking machines. Biomarker studies showed the direct effect of compensation; Benowitz et al. foregrounded their conclusion in the title of their pioneering 1983 paper: "Smokers of Low-Yield Cigarettes Do Not Consume Less Nicotine." This was crucial for the subsequent reevaluation of the earlier generation's (flawed) epidemiology: many early epidemiological studies had taken the FTC's machine yields as measures of smoke intake, whereas biomarker studies now showed that people were getting a lot more tar and nicotine out of "low tar" cigarettes. The Surgeon General's recent (2004) review of this evidence points out that biomarker studies "show little relationship between the biomarkers and tar or nicotine yields as measured by the FTC protocol. This means that smokers end up getting the same levels of tar and nicotine in their body, regardless of whether they smoke low tar or regular cigarettes." The Surgeon General concludes that "Smoking cigarettes with lower machine-measured yields of tar and nicotine provides no clear benefit to health."

Analyses of various forms of bias in early epidemiology provided another piece to this puzzle. I've mentioned the fact that cancer statistics were not showing the fall-off in lung cancer rates expected from the shift to lower-yielding cigarettes; machine-measured yields of tar, for example, had dropped from about 37mg in the 1950s to less than half of that by the late 1970s, so why hadn't lung rates begun to show a proportional fall? People knew that smoking was responsible for about 90 percent of all lung cancers, so what was wrong with the epidemiology?

Monograph 13 contains a detailed analysis of the biases of early epidemiology, biases that seem to have given rise to an erroneous conclusion that reduced-tar cigarettes were safer. The volume notes that it would be surprising if people who switched to (or even started with) low tar cigarettes were not also people who tended to be more "health conscious" than smokers of "full flavor" (i.e., higher tar) cigarettes. Light cigarettes smokers might have healthier diets, for example, or get more exercise, or better protect themselves from occupational carcinogens. If this were true, then epidemiological studies indicating Lights as offering some measure of health protection might actually be simply reflecting the fact that smokers with healthier habits tend to smoke Lights. Similar biases might be introduced if people who switched to Lights were more likely to quit smoking, or to smoke less intensively. These are confounding variables rarely taken into account in early epidemiological studies; we can call this the "healthy switcher" effect, comparable to the better known "healthy worker" and "healthy survivor" effects documented in the literature of occupational health and nuclear medicine (including studies of survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki).

These are not hypothetical scenarios: Monograph 13 reviews evidence that smokers of lower yield products do differ in systematic ways from smokers of higher yield cigarettes. Light smokers have generally been better educated and wealthier, for example. The tobacco industry has long been aware of such patterns: a 1981 BAT study, for example, found that low-tar brand smokers were "more likely to have tried to give up smoking and to have succeeded in quitting for longer when they have tried." This would also have biased epidemiology in the direction of making Lights appear safer.

Monograph 13 also builds on research indicating that new patterns in lung cancer histopathology (tissue type) can be linked to changes in cigarette designs.

Adenocarcinoma, a glandular cancer of the epithelial lining of the lung, has shown an unexpected increase in recent years, and the most common explanation for this (since the 1990s) has been that the increased puff-size and deeper inhalation prompted by Light-design cigarettes has caused cancers to grow deeper in the lungs, in the peripheral airways and alveoli. The increased presence of tobacco-specific nitrosamines in tobacco smoke has also been blamed, which some have traced either to the use of propane gas in flue-curing or the nitrates used to accelerate the combustion of tobacco. The NCI's Monograph 7 noted that cigarettes in the 1990s had lower PAHs but higher N-nitrosamines, and that the lung carcinogen 4-(methy1nitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridy1)-1-butanone (= NNK) increased substantially in cigarettes from 1970s into the 1990s. NNK has been linked more to adenocarcinomas, whereas PAHs are more often linked with squamous cell carcinomas. Monograph 7 cited evidence that the shift to adenocarcinomas from squamous cell carcinomas "may lie in the more intense smoking of the low-nicotine cigarette."

Finally: Monograph 13 also makes the important point that regardless of the risk posed by switching to lower yield cigarettes, the availability of such cigarettes and their perception as less hazardous poses in and of itself a hazard that should not be ignored. Many people must have switched to Lights rather than quitting, believing (falsely) that switching would offer some hope of a lowered disease risk. The availability of low yield cigarettes may increase rates at which young people start smoking, and deter people who already smoke from quitting.

Insofar as Lights prevent people from quitting, or give them reasons to start or to resume once they've quit, they must be seen as causing mortality not detectable in epidemiological studies. Monograph 13 does not quantify how many people may have been deterred from quitting by the Light cigarette deception, but it does point out that deterrence of this sort must be figured as an additional health cost.

* * * *

Monograph 13 is a work of creative synthesis and summation, a consensus document. It is also one of the most important documents in recent tobacco health scholarship, and like other pioneering contributions to scholarship, the volume is as important for its methodological innovations as for its substantive conclusions. The authors note in their preface that for the first time "the authors who prepared the various chapters have had extensive access to the information gleaned from the internal documents of the tobacco companies," including "marketing strategies that express the growing concern among the various tobacco companies of the potential loss of new recruits." Other medical authorities started using the secret documents about this same time: the National Academy of Science in its 2001 Clearing the Smoke, for example, cites industry documents to illustrate the industry's "strategies to reassure consumers about safety." A 1977 BAT document is cited, for example, in which statements are made about the industry's need to alleviate smokers' "anxiety about health," the goal being "to enable the smoker to feel assured about the habit and confident in maintaining it over time. This new source of information, derived from litigation in the mid — and late 1990s, has enabled medical scholars to appreciate the vast scope of the industry's effort to convince smokers that they should smoke Lights rather than quit.

Part of Monograph 13's authority derives from the rigorous, multistage review process it underwent prior to publication. Each of the authors' contributions underwent an initial peer review, following which the whole was again reviewed by the NCI. Recognizing the gravity of its conclusions, a special meeting was organized in Toronto (at the Epidemiology Congress in June of 2000) to invite critical scholarly exchange; opinions were solicited from a broad range of scholars (including initial skeptics such as Richard Peto) and the manuscript was further revised. The whole document then underwent yet another final review prior to publication. This elaborate process, involving four separate episodes of peer review, demonstrates the extraordinary care taken to ensure the document's quality prior to publication.

The conclusions of Monograph 13 have been widely endorsed by medical organizations in different parts of the world. Apart from the U.S. National Cancer Institute it has been endorsed by the World Health Organization's Scientific Advisory Committee on Tobacco Product Regulation, an expert panel reporting to the Canadian Minister of Health, and the Royal College of Physicians in Great Britain. Numerous favorable reviews have appeared in medical literature, and in 2001, Tobacco Control, an official publication of the British Medical Association, castigated what it called "the low tar lie":

Several times in the last 50 years, the industry has developed a new cigarette, which it then has widely promoted as being safe or safer than the product it was designed to replace. Each time, large proportions of the smoking population responded to these pronouncements by switching to these products in the mistaken belief that they were reducing their health risk, and each time the public has been deliberately deceived.

Even some of the tobacco manufacturers have recognized the authority of Monograph 13: Philip Morris USA's website, for example, has a prominent link to the online version of the document (via an NCI press release) and states that smokers should not assume "that lower-yield brands are safe or safer.

Monograph 13 was not alone, however, in challenging the previous consensus on low tar's relative safety. Similar conclusions were reached by an independent review of the National Academy of Science's prestigious Institute of Medicine, which in 2001 reported that "most current assessments of the epidemiological and toxicological data suggest . . . that low-yield products are associated with far less health benefit than predicted based on FTC assay-generated tar, CO, and nicotine levels." So even though machine-measured tar and nicotine yields decreased by more than half from the 1950s into the 1990s, this has not been accompanied by "a significant or proportional change in the harm or prevalence of specific smoking-related disease." The report concludes that the impact of what it calls "potential reduced exposure products" is "unknown" and "could, in fact, be negative."

The U.S. Surgeon General's Report for 2004 concludes similarly that reduced yield cigarettes, as measured on the FTC's standardized machines, "have at most a small effect on risk." This report also reaffirms the consensus view that although yields of tar and nicotine have declined substantially over the last 50 years, "the risk of lung cancer in smokers has not declined." There is at most only a "weak relationship" between type of cigarette smoked and risk of coronary heart disease, and low-yield products may even be "a detriment to public health, if their availability unfavorably affects decisions to start or stop smoking." The report also suggests that "little public health benefit" will be gained by further research on the relationship between cigarette design and lung disease, given the unambiguous benefits from smoking cessation. Recognizing the duplicity inherent in the "Lights" label, a number of nations have taken steps to ban the "Light" brand descriptor. In May of 2001, for example, the European Union adopted a measure banning the sale of cigarettes as "Light," "Ultralight" and "Mild," on grounds these constitute false assurances of health. This same directive established maximal machine yields of cigarettes (10 mg per cigarette for tar, 1 mg nicotine and 10mg carbon monoxide effective 2004), showing that the EU considers the "Light" label a deception above and beyond however one might interpret machine-measured tar, nicotine and gas yields.

The European ban on Lights, and the National Cancer Institute's and National Academy of Science's delving into documents produced via litigation, demonstrate the frustration of public health authorities with the limited progress made in controlling the world's largest single public health catastrophe since the bubonic plague. An estimated 100 million people died in the twentieth century from tobacco, and the global toll in the 21st century could be ten times higher — as many as a billion if current trends continue.

Medical researchers for many years have recognized that it is better to smoke less than more, and for many years believed that the goal of "smoking less" could be achieved by "smoking low tar." That consensus started to unravel in the 1980s and 1990s, and was finally overthrown and replaced in the 2000s by a new consensus, buttressed by myriad forms of evidence, that "Widespread adoption of lower yield cigarettes by smokers in the United States has not prevented the sustained increase in lung cancer among older smokers." Low tar cigarettes are not safer, but rather "part of the industry's plan to maintain and expand its consumer base."

Prior to this Time, the Industry Knew Lights Were No Safer

Following the 1950s establishment of a consensus that cigarettes cause cancer, a common view among medical scholars was that low tar cigarettes might offer some margin of safety. Wynder occasionally made such claims, as did Richard Doll in England. An American Cancer Society pamphlet as late as 1992 advised that if you must smoke, smoke a law tar cigarette. Part of this was just common sense: it made sense that if you inhale less tar and/or nicotine, you will put yourself less at risk than if you inhale more. A number of very early studies showed that the risks of smoking increase with number of cigarettes smoked, and it seemed plausible that if you reduce the amount of tar and nicotine in any given cigarette, you will reduce your corresponding risk. Many people endorsed this view.

The problem, as first recognized in the 1960s by tobacco industry researchers, was that when switching to low-tar or nicotine brands, smokers do not maintain a consistent behavior. They are addicted to the nicotine in tobacco, and if offered cigarettes with a lowered nicotine content will alter their behavior to obtain the level of nicotine to which they have been accustomed. This was already known by the industry in the 1960s under the name of "compensation," the idea being that smokers would smoke more cigarettes, or smoke further down on the butt, or hold the smoke longer in their lungs or draw it deeper into their lungs, or cover up ventilation holes designed to dilute smoke — all of these being different means by which smokers would "compensate," or "self-titrate" to obtain a constant level of nicotine.

Hints of a public recognition of the possibility of compensation can be found prior even to the 1960s, but little attention was paid to the phenomenon until the 1980s, a key prompt being the 1981 Surgeon General's report, which brought compensation to the attention of a large body of medical and public health researchers. Compensation was appreciated by the industry prior to this time, however. A 1961 memo by Helmut Wakeharn at Philip Morsis noted that "all too often the smoker who switches to a hi-fi cigarette winds up smoking more units in order to provide himself with the same delivery which he had before. A 1973 Brown Williamson confidential literature survey acknowledged that cigarettes "allow people to self-administer nicotine and at a self-determined rate." Claude Teague at Reynolds one year before this had noted that "Given a cigarette that delivers less nicotine then he desires, the smoker will subconsciously adjust his puff volume and frequency, and smoking frequency, so as to obtain and maintain his per hour and per day requirement for nicotine."

One important difference between the industry's approach to compensation and that of scholars outside the industry is that while the public health community was (eventually) quite troubled by compensation, the industry early on saw it as an opportunity, and specifically an opportunity to market cigarettes that, while advertised as being lower in tar and nicotine, actually delivered a no less potent punch. The industry deliberately developed cigarettes that would allow consumers to adjust their nicotine intake by changing how they smoke — by placing ventilation holes in such a manner that they could be covered up by the lips or fingers of the smoker, for example. A British American Tobacco document from the 1980s describes as "sensible" the idea of producing "a cigarette which can be machine smoked at a certain tar band but which, in human hands, can exceed this tar banding" (i.e., deliver more tar than specified in Britain's League tables — their equivalent of FTC ratings.)

Smokers, However, Were Led to Believe Lights Were Safer

The tobacco industry has long had a sophisticated understanding of tobacco and its effects on humans. Thousands of scientists have been employed in industry laboratories, and the internal archives of the industry demonstrate an early and sophisticated understanding of nicotine and smoke chemistry, including the chemical and physical properties of smoke, its cancer-causing potency, the metabolic pathways of nicotine in the body, consumer perceptions of various sorts, marketing tricks that work better or worse, and so forth. Tobacco scientists were often proud of what they knew. By 1962, for example, BAT scientists were bragging that:

we now possess a knowledge of the effects of nicotine far more extensive than exists in published scientific literature. It is indeed so extensive and represents so much new thought that it is not easy to condense the material of these several reports and working papers without over-simplification.

Similar boasts can be found concerning knowledge of cancer hazards, cancerous components in tobacco and tobacco smoke, and many other areas. Tobacco industry scientists have long kept careful tabs on findings in the published scientific literature, and enormous (private, corporate) libraries have been established housing all of the world's tobacco science literature in many languages, with elaborate translation services. The largest companies have long had handsomely-funded laboratory facilities employing hundreds of scientists.

Recognizing the hazards of cigarettes in the 1950s (albeit only privately, never publicly), the tobacco industry sought a number of different means to reassure customers that the products they were selling were safe. Filters were introduced in the 1950s, followed by low tar and nicotine brands in the 1960s and then "Light" brands in the 1970s. With each of these innovations, smokers were assured that the industry was doing what it could to fix the health problem. Viceroy had "a thinking man's filter, a smoking man's taste"; "More scientists and educators" smoked Kent; Lorillard's "True" brand was "as easy on your mind as it is on your taste," and so forth. Consumers were led to believe that the industry was acting responsibly, conducting health research, trying to "solve" the problem.

Consumers were never told (by the industry at any rate) that filters were not very effective. They were never told that particles were dislodging from filters and entering smokers' lungs, or that fiberglass was being deliberately added to chew to elevate nicotine absorption, or that Kent's micronite filter contained asbestos, or that evidence for a health advantage from low yield cigarettes was trivial or nonexistent. Instead, advertisements continued to imply that it was sensible to shift to lower yielding cigarettes. It is hardly surprising, then, that smokers widely believed — and many still believe — that they could gain a margin of safety by switching to Lights.

The tobacco industry realized from the beginning that the appeal of Lights — as of low tar cigarettes previously — was their purported safety. A 1975 R R document, for example, reports on focus group studies showing that whereas the industry categorized cigarettes as "Full Flavor," "Medium Flavor" and "High Filtration," the consuming public classified them ("in their minds") as "Least Safe," "Safer" and "Safest." Many other studies conducted by the industry in 1970s and '80s show consumers perceiving Light brands as safe or safer. A 1974 study for Reynolds found that smokers were receptive to the idea of a "Light" Winston brand; consumers imagined this as offering "a 'safe' cigarette with a taste . . . similar to their current brand"; the appeal was to be able to "feel safe" while smoking. The combination of lowered delivery and good taste was seen (by smokers) as "a smoker's dream"; Winston Lights "held out the possibility of a return to 'the good old days' of full flavor — but without the fear." A 1976 study for Lorillard found that low tar and nicotine brands were seen as "better for you . . . less likely to cause serious problem." A 1979 Roper poll conducted for Philip Morris reported the "simple and single" appeal of low-tar cigarettes as "better for you, less harmful, easier on the lungs, throat" — noting also that this "safety" appeal was strong enough to overcome "the main objection to low tars — low taste." A 1987 study of Philip Morris' Merit brand concluded that "Lighter taste provides 'better for you' reassurance." The industry attributed the success of Lights to health concerns — evidence for this can be found in literally hundreds of industry documents.

Elaborate psychological studies were conducted to explore consumer perceptions, and the findings were that smokers believed they were safer smoking Light cigarettes. A 1976 Philip Monis study of "Smoker Psychology" found that smokers worried about their health ("health smokers") were more likely to have a positive attitude toward cigarettes advertised as lower tar. This is a revealing study, given that it also found that people given a low tar cigarette to smoke didn't rate it as more acceptable until they were told it was lower tar. Comparing 500 smokers of a 9 mg cigarette and 500 smokers of a 15 mg cigarette, the study found that when no delivery information was provided "both cigarettes were judged equally acceptable." When test subjects were told about delivery levels, however, the 9 mg cigarette was rated higher. The people most swayed by the new information were the "health smokers." The authors of this study concluded that "a real marketing advantage" could be gained by "calling attention to the delivery values of low delivery cigarettes."

Studies of smokers' interpretations of ads also found that smokers perceived the message of Lights to be one of safety. A 1979 study of smokers' responses to Winston Lights ads asked: "What is the key point that these ads are trying to say about WINSTON LIGHTS cigarettes?" Responses varied, but the first one listed was: "A low tar cigarette that tastes good, is satisfying and safer." A 1983 study of Reynolds' "Now" brand image found similarly that when smokers were presented with the words "low" and "lowest" in ads for cigarettes:

They interpret this to mean that the two brands are 'safer' and pose less of a health hazard. Consequently, they reason, this would make the brands more appealing to younger people who are very health conscious or to older, long-time smokers who are concerned about the long-range effects of tobacco.

Participants in this study were asked to imagine who might smoke Carlton, and some of the names mentioned were Paul Newman, Johnny Carson, John F. Kennedy, Margaret Mead, and Albert Einstein.

Similar results were obtained by studies from outside the tobacco industry. Gio B. Gori in 1990 surveyed 1200 randomly selected smokers and ex-smokers in Europe and the U.S. and found that people believed that the tar yields reported on tobacco packaging accurately represented how much was actually being delivered to the smoker. The National Academy's Institute of Medicine report (from 2001) similarly concluded that people who "switched down" to lower yielding cigarettes did so at least in part from health concerns.

It should also be made clear that smokers did not choose Lights solely because they preferred the milder taste or flavor of such cigarettes. The historical record is clear on this: Lights have almost always been viewed as a compromise, a sacrifice, a "trade-off" consumers were willing to accept because they perceived these would be less likely to kill them. Lights are often described in internal industry documents as "low flavor" or "compromise" cigarettes, whereas in advertisements the claim is often made that you "needn't" compromise, the implication being that a certain brand will provide good taste while also providing health protection. Advertising consultants for the industry in 1977 talked about how smokers' taste expectations had been "continuously reduced" with the shift to lower yield cigarettes:

It must be assumed that Full Taste smokers come down to low "tar" expecting less taste and they are not disappointed. They are willing to compromise taste expectations for health reassurance.

A 1979 Roper study of 1367 smokers nationwide for Philip Morris made it clear that smokers chose low tar for the "single" reason of safety — but also that lack of taste was "the #1 drawback to low tars." This same survey postulated that the availability of low tar cigarettes had "stabilized" the percentage of adults who smoke at about 34 percent (halting the decline of smoking, in other words); low tar cigarettes had accomplished this by bringing about a "neutralization of the health threat," allowing also an increase in the total number of cigarettes smoked:

The percentage of adults who smoke has stabilized for the first time since 1965 — at 34%. This could well be due to the greater perceived safety of low tar cigarettes and their resultant neutralization of the health threat.

Since the population is growing, a stabilized percentage means a growing number of smokers.

The number of cigarettes smoked per day per smoker continues to climb, in part at least because low tar cigarettes seem to cause people to increase the number of cigarettes they smoke.

The shift to Lights and low tar cigarettes is clearly not just about taste.

* * * *

The historical record makes it clear that the industry used Light cigarettes to stop potential quitters from quitting. Low nicotine products were deliberately developed "to seduce quitters." Industry and industry consultants often characterized smokers of low tar cigarettes as "potential cigarette quitters"; this was the conclusion of a 1978 "Study of Public Attitudes" conducted by Roper for the Tobacco Institute, for example. Reynolds similarly directed its low yield "Limit" cigarette at that "large group of smokers who are on the verge of that final stop: Quitting smoking all together." Efforts were also made to target ex-smokers with the "healthier" message: Philip Morris, for example, directed marketing efforts at "the growing population of ex-smokers," hoping that low-tar smokes with their illusions of safety would entice them to return to smoking. Cigarettes of this sort were also characterized as "Interceptor cigarettes," the point being to "intercept" people on the verge of quitting, and to coax them into smoking Lights instead.

There is evidence that many people even today continue to believe that low tar cigarettes are safer. A 2004 survey of adolescents showed that they imagined themselves to be significantly less likely to get lung cancer, have a heart attack, and die from a smoking-related disease when smoking "light" versus regular cigarettes for the rest of their lives.

End Remarks

For nearly eighty years, the tobacco industry has marketed cigarettes with assurances of health and safety. Smokers have been told that Old Golds had "not a cough in a carload" (1927), that Camels "don't get your wind" (1933, that "more doctors smoke Camels" (1946), that Philip Morris cigarettes have been "pasteurized for your protection" (1946). Viceroys were marketed as "better for your health" (1951); Kent was said to provide an unexcelled "degree of health protection" (1952); L M Filters were "Just What the Doctor Ordered" (1954); Philip Morris cigarettes took "the FEAR out of smoking" (1954); and so forth. By the 1960s the assurances had become more subtle: True cigarettes delivered "less tar and nicotine than other brands" (1966); Vantage gave smokers both "good taste" and "low tar and nicotine" (1971); Fact cigarettes had "smoke scrubbers" in the filters (1978); Newports were "Alive with pleasure" (1980s); Barclays were "99% tar free"; Carltons were "lowest" in tar and nicotine according to U.S. Government Laboratory tests (1985); Winston had "no additives" (1997); Carlton asked you to "start thinking about number one" (1997); and so forth. Complaints have often been raised against such advertising, and as recently as 2001 the Institute of Medicine listed all of the above and many others as examples of some of the "misunderstandings" promoted by the industry.

Descriptors such as "mild," "light" and "smooth" came into popular use following bans on explicit health claims. Indirect reassurances have continued ever since, accompanied by a shift from verbal to visual reassurances. The point in the shift, as recognized by industry consultants as early as 1957, was to "widen the market . . . to make smoking seem reasonable, justifiable, and highly desirable. For decades, industry advertising for low yield products has relied on misleading "pictures of health and images of intelligence.

Light cigarettes were introduced in 1971 in order to capitalize on smokers' growing desires for "safer cigarettes." The industry played on the obvious and convenient conflation between smoking "Lights" and being a "light smoker"; consumers were led to believe such cigarettes were safer, even though the industry had no evidence to that effect.

The public was never told, by the industry at least, that cigarettes could cause cancer. (Worse, they launched a decades-long campaign to manufacture ignorance and insinuate doubt — "doubt is our product."). Nor was the public ever told that lights did not significantly reduce risk. Instead, the industry conducted a campaign of reassurance, leading consumers to believe that switching to Lights would reduce or even eliminate the risk of death and disease from smoking. Lights were "health reassurance" cigarettes marketed with one principal goal: to keep smokers smoking.

Industry archives reveal this deliberate playing on illusions. In 1966, for example, Philip Morris noted that "The illusion of filtration was as important as the fact of filtration," from which the company concluded that new methods of filtration "need not be any more effective." The industry realized that with smokers increasingly worried about health there was a need to provide them with "health reassurance," regardless of whether there was any basis to such a claim. A 1968 document from Brown and Williamson's Director of R D distinguished two distinct types of "health products": a) "health image" or "health reassurance" cigarettes (i.e., low tar/low nicotine) which the public accepts "as a healthier cigarette," and (b) "health-oriented" cigarettes with reduced biological activity, meaning cigarettes with a lowered likelihood of inducing cancers on the skin of a mouse. Health reassurance has been a key to successful sales since the 1950s; indeed as a 1972 BAT document puts it, the most successful brands have been those that have come closest "to relating the smoking benefit to being one of 'health'." A 1977 Brown and Williamson marketing plan made it clear that "taste reassurance" should be subordinated to "efforts to play up health reassurance claims."

The industry now argues that it, too, believed low tar cigarettes were safer — but it is significant that we rarely (if ever) find explicit assertions of this sort from the industry, at least not after the 1950s (there are many such assertions prior to this time, as the industry tried to reassure consumers in the "first wave" of disease revelations.)

* * * *

We should not lose sight of the fact that throughout the period in question (the marketing of Lights since the early 1970s) the tobacco industry was refusing to admit that cigarettes had been shown to cause any kind of disease whatsoever.

The industry was wary about making explicit claims about safety, because it didn't want to admit that any kind of cigarette caused any harm whatsoever. This part of the history should not be ignored. Bross in 1978, for example, tried to credit the industry with (what he saw as) a good deed — lowering tar yields — but a Tobacco Institute spokesman responded testily that "anyone who suggests that there is such a thing as a 'safer' cigarette is trying to draw the cigarette industry into the trap of somehow admitting that the cigarettes at the full flavor or high 'tar'-nicotine end are dangerous and unsafe" — which of course the industry was denying.

If the industry had been honest, it would have admitted that there was not yet conclusive evidence one way or another whether Lights were any less lethal than other kinds of cigarettes. The industry never presented anything close to an honest representation of the lethality of cigarettes in the 1950s, '60s, '70s, '80s, and most of the '90s. Never was there an admission its products were causing death and disease when used as intended.

The industry recently has claimed that "Light" was just a descriptor referring to taste, but a leading architect of the "Light" concept has testified to the contrary. James Morgan, who as head of marketing for Philip Morris did more than anything else to introduce and popularize Lights, in a 1974 deposition testified that when talking about "light" the company was not talking about "taste": "It's not a term that means anything in terms of taste. . . . It was our desire in this entire Marlboro Lights brand project to constantly position Marlboro Lights as being — as having lower tar and nicotine." Brown and Williamson similarly in 1977 concluded that "Almost all smokers agree that the primary reason for the increasing acceptance of low 'tar' brands is based on the health reassurance they seem to offer." Philip Morris in a 1987 advertising brief summarized consumer perceptions as follows: "Lights = Mild = Less Harmful."

Defendants object to this testimony on relevancy, hearsay, and Rule 702 grounds. Dr. Proctor's conclusions that defendants committed fraud are best left to the jury. So, too, are his conclusions about defendants' alleged untruths. He may give his opinion based upon the documents showing what was known to defendants and consumers since this kind of conclusion appears to be normal for science historians who deal with developing knowledge. His testimony is useful as historical background to show the development of a scientific consensus and its gradual infusion into the general knowledge base of scientists and laypersons. This historical overview will be helpful to the jury in organizing in its mind a huge flow of documentary and other evidence over many years. It will also be helpful in understanding how scientific hypotheses are tested and verified. Particularly in light of the statute of limitations problem, what was becoming known when and to whom is important for the jury's understanding of the case.

Robert N. Proctor's testimony based on his report satisfies Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

o. Paul Slovic

Dr. Paul Slovic received a Bachelors Degree in Psychology from Stanford University in 1959, a Masters Degree in Psychology from the University of Michigan in 1942, and a Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan in 1964. In 1964 he become a research associate at the Oregon Research Institute. In 1976, two colleagues and he established Decision Research, a nonprofit research institute in Eugene, Oregon specializing in the study of human judgment, decision making, and risk assessment. The research conducted at the Institute is both theoretical and applied and is sponsored by United States government agencies such as the National Science Foundation, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Aging, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Forest Service, and by private foundations. In 1986, he became the President of Decision Research and became Professor of Psychology at the University of Oregon. He has served in these positions since that time. He has received many professional honors. He has been researching the psychology of judgment, decision making, and risk for more than forty years. He was one of the first social scientists to study people's perceptions of risk and he has written numerous articles and books based on his research in this area. He has conducted research on risk perception associated with smoking since about 1990. This research has examined the degree to which young people and adults understand the risks associated with smoking. He is one of the most highly cited authors in the social sciences. For example, his article, "The Perception of Risk" (Science, 1987), has been cited in almost 1,000 journal articles. Although he is a psychologist, his research on risk perception and decision making is often cited by economists.

His opinion reads in part as follows:

Psychological theory, backed by a large body of research findings, demonstrates that smoking behavior is not determined by reasoned calculations of risks, costs, and benefits, but rather by images and feelings that carry strong motivational force. The effects of imagery and associated positive or negative feelings (termed "affect") are fast and automatic, and not always above the threshold of conscious awareness. Everything that one encounters is prescreened and classified as either good or bad within a fraction of a second after encountering it. These processes occur in all sentient human beings.

The term "light" has strong positive meanings that, when connected to a cigarette brand name, will imbue that brand with positive affect that will motivate new and mature smokers to use that brand. This communication of positive affect will occur quickly, automatically, and virtually universally in our culture and will not necessarily be recognized consciously by the smoker.

Tobacco companies have known the key elements of this affect and imagery account for decades and have exploited this knowledge to manipulate people to initiate or continue smoking.

In my opinion, based on a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, virtually all light cigarette smokers would have been impacted substantially by the descriptors "light" and "lights" in their purchase and use of light cigarettes.

Basis for Opinion: Theory and Research

Much has been learned about the ways in which all human behavior is shaped and motivated by brain function and fundamental cognitive processes. In particular, research in cognitive psychology has demonstrated that people think and apprehend reality in two different ways. The experiential mode of thinking is intuitive, automatic, natural, and reliant upon imagery and affect. The analytic mode is deliberative, logical, and reason-based. It is a relatively slow, methodical type of thinking. These two modes are part of what have came to be known as dual-process theories of thinking, knowing, and information processing. One such dual-process theory is illustrated in Table I below.

Table I. Two modes of thinking: Comparison of the experiential and analytic systems.

Experiential system Analytic system • Holistic • Logical: reason oriented (what is sensible) • Affective: pleasure-pain oriented • Logical connections • Associationistic connections • Behavior mediated by conscious appraisal of events • Behavior mediated by feelings developed through past experience • Encodes reality in abstract symbols, words and numbers • Encodes reality in concrete images, • Slower processing: oriented metaphors and narratives towards delayed action • More rapid processing: oriented • Requires justification via logic and towards immediate action evidence • Self-evidently valid: "experiencing is believing"

Affect plays a central role in these dual process theories, as a key element of the experiential system of thinking. As used here, "affect" means the specific quality of "goodness" or "badness" (I) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (ii) demarcating the positive or negative quality of a stimulus image. The images with which affect is associated include not only visual imagery but sounds, smells, tactile sensations, memories, imaginations, and words. Words are particularly powerful conveyors of imagery and feeling. Osgood, Suci, and Tannebaum (1957) demonstrated that the dominant component of meaning for a word is its evaluative (e.g., good/bad) dimension — note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word "treasure" or the word "hate."

Although reason-based or analytic thinking is certainly important in some decision-making circumstances, reliance on affect and emotion is a quicker, easier, and more efficient way to navigate in a complex, uncertain, and sometimes dangerous world.

* * * *

As the study of cognition has advanced, researchers have increasingly recognized the importance of affect.

* * * *

One mechanism by which feelings direct the behavior of human beings is the affect heuristic. A heuristic is a process whereby a person assesses a specified target attribute (e.g., the risk of smoking cigarettes) by substituting a related attribute (e.g., how do I feel about smoking?) for a complex analysis (detailed reasons or calculations indicating why the risk is high or low). More generally, substitution of feelings for reasoned analysis is known as the affect heuristic.

The affect heuristic grew out of the observation, in many studies, that risk and benefit tend to be negatively related in people's minds. . . . For many hazards, the greater the perceived benefit, the lower the perceived risk, and vice versa. Nuclear power, use of pesticides, and consumption of food additives, for example, tend to be seen as very high in risk and relatively low in benefit, whereas the use of medicines and X-rays tend to be seen as high in benefit and relatively low in risk. This negative relationship is noteworthy because it occurs even when the nature of the gains or benefits from an activity is distinct and qualitatively different from the nature of the risks. That the inverse relationship is generated in people's minds rather than learned by experience is suggested by the fact that risk and benefits generally tend to be positively (if at all) correlated in the world. Activities that bring great benefits may be high or low in risk, but activities that are low in benefit are unlikely to be high in risk (if they were, they would be proscribed). Yet the relationship between risk and benefit in people's minds is opposite to this.

* * * *

[P]eople base their judgments of an activity or a technology not only on what they think about it but also on what they feel about it. If they like an activity, they are moved to judge the risks as low and the benefits as high; if they dislike it, they tend to judge the opposite — high risk and low benefit.

These findings suggest that use of the affect heuristic guides perceptions of risk and benefit. . . . If so, providing information about benefit should change the perception of risk and vice versa. . . . For example, information stating that benefit is high for some activity or technology should lead to more positive overall affect, which would, in turn, decrease perceived risk. When the information that was provided changed either the perceived risk or the perceived benefit, an affectively congruent but inverse effect was observed on the non-manipulated attribute. . . . These findings support the theory that risk and benefit judgments are causally determined, at least in part, by the overall affective evaluation.

Marketers of consumer products such as cigarettes have long been aware of the powerful influence of affect. Great effort and sophistication are expended to create a positive image for a brand. Recent studies by neuroscientists show how the brand image effects fundamental processes in the human brain. . . . [For example,] when people were told what brand they were drinking, their preferences changed, as did their brain activity. The study thus showed that people did not choose a drink based upon taste alone. They chose a drink based upon what the strong brand identity of the beverage did to their medial prefrontal cortex. This is viewed as a foundational study in the emerging discipline of "neuromarketing." The merger of marketing and neuroscience is raising ethical concerns because of its power to manipulate people. . . .

The subtlety and automatic nature of the experiential processes described above indicates why people's self reports of the reasons underlying their behavior are not entirely trustworthy. Reasons may be "created" to explain behavior that was driven by affective responses of which the explainer is unaware. . . .

* * * *

[S]ubjects in their studies are sometimes (a) unaware of the existence of a stimulus that importantly influences a response, (b) unaware of the existence of the response, and (c) unaware that the stimulus has affected the response.

Cigarette companies have understood the relationship between imagery, affect/emotion, and behavior for decades and have used this knowledge to get young people to initiate smoking behavior and to induce established smokers to continue smoking.

The tobacco industry spends an enormous amount of money on advertising and promotion. It is not surprising that the industry also invests heavily in market research to guide these massive expenditures. Industry aims, methods, and results in this arena are described in internal documents. They tell a story that is consistent with the conclusions from the psychological research. . . . The tobacco industry well knows that initiation of smoking typically takes place among children and adolescents whose decision making capabilities are immature — weighing imagery, affect, emotion, and social relationships more than logic, reason, or analysis of risk.

The industry employed talented marketing researchers, who used sophisticated methods to uncover consumer needs and motivations that could be addressed in targeted advertising and promotion campaigns. These methods included focus groups and large surveys designed to measure smoking behavior, people's attention to advertising materials, and their attitudes and emotional responses.

Opportunities for "creative exploitation" were enhanced about the middle of the last century when market researchers discovered the importance of conscious and non-conscious motivational factors in influencing consumer decisions. . . . Market researchers urged tobacco companies to design advertising and promotions so as to link positive images to cigarettes.

Cigarette marketers began to assess motivational factors by means of projective techniques, designed to uncover actual and desired images of both products and consumers. The focus of many industry studies, reports, talks, and memoranda was to describe the images associated with advertising themes and brands, particularly with regard to young people. . . .

Among the discoveries and conclusions resulting from image analysis and related industry studies were the following:

a) Attractiveness of a brand's "user image" is a determiner of both smoking initiation and initial brand selection. . . .

b) A planning memorandum, addressing new brands of cigarettes for the youth market, asserted that the most important characteristics of a youth brand may be ". . . image and quality . . ."

* * * *

c) Another analysis cites one of a company's creative directors as saying: "What about image? I think it is the whole ball game." This same document also asserted that ". . . response to an image may be partially subconscious."

d) Studies of peoples' recollections of cigarette advertising indicate that young smokers focus almost entirely on the visual aspects rather than on copy content. . . . Related to this are findings indicating the importance of emotional content . . . and the need to stress emotion, not reason.

e) Positive affect was found to be particularly important: "Fundamentally, we're not in the cigarette business at all. We're in the pleasure business." "If it feels good, do it. If it feels good, smoke it. VICEROY. It feels good."

* * * *

f) "Imagery is an important aspect of brand preference . . . response to an image may be partially subconscious." Also: "An image in cigarette advertising is probably best defined as the subconscious impression smokers have of the brand."

g) One of the techniques commonly used by marketers of consumer products is to place blurbs such as "new," "natural," "improved," or "fat free" on the package. In light of the above discussion, these words can be seen as "affective tags" that enhance the attractiveness of the product and increase the likelihood that it will be purchased. "Natural" is a term that has been demonstrated to have strong positive associations and affect. An ad for Kool Natural Lights cigarettes repeats the word natural 13 times in a single half-page display.

h) Given the sophisticated manipulation of imagery by tobacco marketers, it is not surprising that affective associations between cigarettes and positive images may begin forming in children as young as thee years old.

My research questions the rationality of young people's decisions to begin smoking, finding that these decisions reflect experiential, affect-driven thinking rather than reasoned analysis. This finding is foreseen in tobacco industry studies that conclude that ". . . the cigarette 'decision process' is non-existent or at best superficial" or is driven by emotion, not reason. Given this discovery, an advertising development "white paper" advises a tobacco company to market their brand to "elicit an emotional response rather than purely a rational response"

* * * *

Implications Regarding Light Cigarettes

The analysis of experiential thinking, imagery, and affect presented above, based upon current psychological theory and research and similar knowledge exploited by tobacco companies, has clear implications for an analysis of the impact of light cigarettes.

a) Smoking behavior is initiated and maintained by positive imagery and feelings.

b) Smoking behavior is not accurately depicted as a result of reasoned calculations of risks, costs, and benefits. Rather it is determined by images and feelings that carry strong motivational force.

c) The effects of imagery and affect are fast and automatic, and not always above the threshold of conscious awareness. John Bargh, one of the leading authorities on the automaticity of behavior, asserts that ". . . everything that one encounters is preconsciously screened and classified as either good or bad within a fraction of a second after encountering it."

d) Processes such as the affect heuristic apply to all human thinking. In fact, it is now widely recognized that affect is essential to rational decision making. Individuals who are unable to associate affective feelings and emotions with the anticipated consequences of their actions become socially dysfunctional even though they may be capable of analytic reasoning.

e) The evaluative component of meaning for the word "light" is good or positive. Light, as a physical substance, illuminates space and helps us see or navigate the world. Note the contrast in feelings when you think of "light" versus "dark." Through its association with illumination, light has become synonymous with knowledge and understanding (e.g., to "see the light" or "shed light on a problem"). These positive qualities have been associated with religion or spiritual awareness ("follow God's light," "inner light"). A person regarded very fondly is "the light of my life."

f) Moving from nouns to adjectives, the same strong positive connotations are present.

Psychologically, light refers to being free from sadness or troubles, a "light item." Easy or nimble movements pertain to dancers who are described as "light and graceful." "Light housework" or "light exercise" demands little effort and is not burdensome.

g) When applied to foods, the descriptor light means having fewer harmful substances — particularly fat and calories. It follows that light cigarettes, implicitly and explicitly, would be associated with lesser amounts of harmful substances, particularly with a product that, unlike food, is generally viewed as harmful. This would contribute to positive affect along with the positive feelings linked more generally with the word "light" (as noted above).

h) Points a-g above lead to the conclusion that the presence of the word "light" in conjunction with a cigarette brand name will imbue the brand with positive affect that will increase the likelihood that new and mature smokers will use that brand. This communication of positive affect will occur quickly, automatically, and virtually universally in our culture, and will not necessarily be consciously recognized by the smoker. Moreover, the positivity conveyed by the word "light" would be expected, through the operation of the affect heuristic to depress the perception of risk associated with smoking that brand.

Professor David W. Stewart, one of defendants' highly qualified experts who will be permitted to testify, has criticized the work of Dr. Slovic, as well as of plaintiffs' experts Joel Cohen, Richard Pollay, and Michael Cummings. His critique is cogent as to details of the research done by these experts, their methodology, and their conclusions. He particularly supports defendants' view that all smokers differ, making it futile to attempt to draw a general conclusion as to all of them. This approach can be presented to the jury. It does not provide a basis for excluding the contrary conclusions of the distinguished experts on the other side. See, e.g., "Comments on the Affidavit of David W. Stewart," in Expert Report of Paul Slovic dated August 15, 2005, at ¶¶ 36 ff.

The report and proposed testimony of Paul Slovic are admissible under Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

p. Joseph E. Stiglitz

Plaintiffs propose to introduce the testimony of Dr. Joseph E. Stiglitz supported by his revised opinion of March 28, 2005. Dr. Stiglitz is a Professor at Columbia University's Business School, Columbia's Graduate School of Arts and Sciences (in the Department of Economics), and Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs. In 2001, he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. He previously served as the World Bank's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. Before joining the Bank, he was the Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. He has also served as a professor of economics at Stanford, Princeton, Yale, and All Souls College, Oxford.

As an academic, he helped create a new branch of economics — "The Economics of Information" — which has received widespread application. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, he helped revive interest in the economics of technical change and other factors that contribute to long-run increases in productivity and living standards. He is also a leading scholar of competition policy. He has received many professional awards. He has published widely in fields relevant to his proposed testimony in the present case.

Dr. Stiglitz's report reads in part as follows:

III. INTRODUCTION

The central features of the collusion in the cigarette industry stem from the same basic cause: beginning in the early 1950s the first evidence about the health hazards of smoking started to become more widely understood. The cigarette companies were facing a potential massive decline in sales as a result of the issues surrounding smoking and its impact on health. If the cigarette companies had acted in their direct interests, they would have hastened the decline of the industry as a whole. As a result, the cigarette companies maintained a united front to maintain their economic interests over the years, continuing through the light cigarette fraud. This front helped maintain the "open question" debate about the health impact of cigarettes while continuing to sell a harmful and addictive product, characteristics that the consumer negatively valued in the product. If one company had broken from the collusion and told the truth about cigarettes or marketed a less harmful cigarette as such, the economic interests of the cigarette companies could have been severely damaged. This is similar to the classic Prisoners' Dilemma — all companies are better off cooperating (by withholding the truth about cigarettes and not developing a "safer" cigarette) rather than not cooperating (developing a "safer" cigarette), but any one company stood to gain substantial market share by not cooperating.

From 1950 through 2003, six firms were responsible for more than 96 percent of domestic shipments of cigarettes in the United states. Such a market structure is what economists term an "oligopoly." In an oligopoly, as distinct from perfect competition, firms will act strategically, each taking into account how its actions will affect the actions pursued by its competitors and the market as a whole.

Acting strategically does not, in general, require coordination nor is it evidence of anti-competitive behavior. In the cigarette industry, however, evidence shows that the cigarette oligopoly acted in a collusive and anticompetitive manner, maximizing their joint profits at the expense of consumers. There is evidence that one aspect of this collusion was coordinating prices at a higher level than would prevail under competition, although this issue is not addressed in this Declaration and is not necessary for the other conclusions. There is abundant evidence that the tobacco firms acted to harm consumers by colluding together to deny that smoking caused disease, to not compete on health issues, and to suppress research into potentially less damaging cigarettes.

Such anticompetitive acts allowed each of the firms to maintain relatively higher sales and thus higher profits at the expense of consumers. Furthermore, like the classic economic case of price collusion, at various times each of the firms had an incentive to depart from the collusive arrangement to maximize its own profits at the expense of the group. A range of explicit and strategic strategies allowed the firms to coordinate and enforce their collusive arrangement, resulting in collectively higher profits.

All of these forms of collusion were manifested in the "light cigarette fraud." The evidence shows that the large cigarette firms knowingly and deceitfully marketed a product that was no safer than existing cigarettes, did not compete with each other on safety claims, and avoided research into a genuinely less harmful cigarette.

The remainder of this Declaration contains four sections. First, I present the economic theory of oligopoly and collusion. This section supplements a discussion of the standard theory of collusion in prices and quantities with a discussion of collusion in other dimensions of competition. Second, I evaluate the cigarette industry in light of my theoretical statements about collusion. I conclude that this industry has the market characteristics that are conducive to collusion, that its behavior is consistent with collusion, and that the evidence in the record demonstrates collusion. Third, I examine the light cigarette fraud as an act of collusion. The final section offers my conclusions.

* * * *

V. THE CASE OF THE CIGARETTE INDUSTRY

This section applies the economic theories developed in Section IV to the cigarette industry. The cigarette industry is an oligopoly: the companies that comprise this oligopoly have colluded together for at least fifty years in order to expand their profits at the expense of consumers. This collusion involved a wide array of understandings, strategies, coordination mechanisms and enforcement mechanisms, to ensure that the cigarette companies would not act competitively in their own unilateral interests. Instead, the cigarette companies acted collectively to advance their own joint interests at the expense of consumers. They undertook this collusion in order to avoid the potentially devastating impact that increasing public awareness of the health dangers associated with smoking would have had on their profits.

* * * *

B. The Role of Perceived Safety in the Demand for Cigarettes

All of the collusive conduct by the cigarette companies described in this declaration is based on one fundamental fact: perceived safety is an important factor in the demand for cigarettes as a whole and for the choice of particular brands. This is clear both from the extensive econometric studies of the demand for cigarettes and the behavior of the tobacco companies themselves.

The most comprehensive survey of the economics of smoking was conducted by leading economic experts Frank Chaloupka and Kenneth Warner and published in the 2000 Handbook of Health Economics (the Handbook series is the leading technical reference series in economics, it summarizes generally accepted research). They conclude:

In both the early 1950s and the mid-1960s, smoking-related 'health scares' received substantial public attention in the United States . . . The impact of these 'health scares' has been the subject of extensive econometric analysis [Sumner (1971), Hamilton (1972), Schmalensee (1972), Atkinson and Skegg (1973), McGuiness and Courling (1975), Thompson and McLeod (1976), Warner (1977, 1981a, 1989), Ippolito et al. (1979), Fujii (1980), Schneider et al. (1981), Leu (1984), Porter (1986), Bishop and Yoo (1985), Kao and Tremblay (1988), Simonich (1991), Pekurinen (1989, 1991), Meier and Licari (1997)]. In general, these and other studies concluded that cigarette smoking fell significantly in response to the new information on its health consequences. Warner (1977, 1981 a), for example, found that the public scares in the early 1950s significantly reduced smoking in 1953 and 1954, but that their negative impact diminished through the decade. He concluded that the 1964 Surgeon General's report led to an immediate 5% decline in cigarette consumption. Schneider et al. (1981) estimated that U.S. per capita tobacco consumption was about 39 percent lower in 1978 than it would have been in the absence of the two health scares.

In addition, the economic literature also finds that perceived safety is an important selling point for individual brands of cigarettes. Consumers evaluate cigarettes, like any other product, based on price and a variety of quality criteria, including taste, image, and the perception of safety. These factors are important in determining the overall quantity of cigarettes sold and also the demand for particular brands of cigarettes.

The cigarette industry has also consistently understood that safety, or the perception of safety, was an important selling point for cigarettes. [P]rior to 1953, cigarette companies advertised the purported superior health benefits of their products as compared to the products produced by rivals. After the onset of collusion in December 1953 the tobacco companies no longer marketed their cigarettes in this manner. Yet, they continued to understand that this form of marketing would yield substantial dividends for any firm choosing to pursue it.

The public record contains a wealth of examples of this mutual understanding:

Internal market study conducted by Philip Morris in 1963: "It is our opinion that the results can be interpreted to mean that, among filter smokers, there are as many who will respond to a promotional story with a health theme as there are those that will respond to a story with a pleasure theme. The anxiety [that] is present among these smokers might well serve as a guide for the design and promotion of the new cigarette."

Liggett Group internal document that discusses industry's response to the 1964 U.S. Surgeon General Report: "It is considered to be of prime importance that the industry maintain united front and that if one or more companies were to conduct themselves as a matter of self interest, particularly in advertising, obvious vulnerability would result."

* * * *

Note that, all else being equal, the cigarette industry had more of an incentive to market a product that was perceived to be safer than a product that was actually safer. That is because a genuinely safer product would reduce the level of nicotine and thus the addictiveness of cigarettes, resulting in falling demand over time. This incentive was at the heart of the light cigarette fraud described in Section VI below.

* * * *

D. Strategies of Collusion in the Cigarette Industry

This Declaration examines three forms of collusion by the cigarette companies: (1) refraining from competing on safety claims; (2) developing strategies to avoid research into less harmful cigarettes; and (3) maintaining a united and misleading front on safety issues.

1. Refraining from Competing on Safety Claims

As described above, in the early 1950s the tobacco companies competed vigorously by making competing health claims. After the December 1953 New York meeting, however, this advertising virtually ceased. As described by Business Week,

Faced with dropping sales, cigarette manufacturers have pulled an abrupt about face in advertising tactics . . . A couple of years ago, most of them were pulling out all the stops to terrorize their customers into buying their particular brands. Today, no word of fear, no talk of throat scratch — just comfortable, reassuring phrases about how good a cigarette tastes.

This collusion can best be demonstrated by describing how it functioned in practice, including examining some of the relatively few and brief deviations from the collusion. These examples illustrate the many ways in which the collusion was enforced, including industry associations (like TIRC) and the Cigarette Advertising Code adopted by the industry in April 1964.

* * * *

3. Maintaining a United and Misleading Front on Safety Issues

The final example of collusion is the cigarette companies consistent denial of any adverse health effects associated with smoking, denial that nicotine was addictive, and assertion that these issues were an "open question." In the January 1954 "Frank Statement" the cigarette companies had promised to support research into tobacco and health, putting the efforts under the guidance of "an Advisory Board of scientists disinterested in the cigarette industry." Instead of following up on this pledge, the evidence shows that the cigarette companies individually and jointly misled the public, concealed or suppressed scientific research findings, and destroyed documents in furtherance of their collusive arrangement.

VI. THE LIGHT CIGARETTE FRAUD AS AN EXAMPLE OF COLLUSION

The light cigarette fraud, described in great detail in the Illinois Decision, BCBS v. PM Decision and the National Cancer Institute's Monograph 13, is best understood as an example of collusion in the economic sense. It reflects all three types of collusion analyzed in Section V(D), including the failure to compete on safety, the failure to develop genuinely less harmful products, and maintaining a united and misleading front on safety issues. Like the broader pattern of collusion, all of this collusion took place because if the cigarette companies had followed their direct, individual economic interests by catering to safety issues in their research and marketing, the result would have been seriously damaging for the industry as a whole.

Beginning in the early 1950s, it started to become clearer to the scientific community that cigarettes were harmful to health and that, in particular, this harm could be traced at least in part, to the tar produced by burning tobacco. This initial "health scare" led to a reduction in the demand for cigarettes — either because people quit smoking or chose not to start. The cigarette companies responded with the pattern of collusion described in the previous section.

Cigarette manufacturers responded by adding filters to their products and embarking in efforts to lower the machine-measured tar and nicotine yields produced by their cigarettes when tested. With some rare and previous exceptions described above, which only reinforce the conclusion about collusion, the tobacco companies did not compete by making explicit health claims about these products. Instead, tobacco advertising consistently insinuated that these cigarettes would be less harmful to health. In fact, the evidence shows that consumers chose these cigarettes because of their perceived health benefits and despite what was considered to be inferior taste. According to the National Cancer Institute, "Terms such as 'Light' and 'Ultra-Light' were added to brand names, and substantial numbers of smokers switched to these brands in an effort to reduce their disease risks."

While the cigarette companies strongly insinuated that these new cigarettes were less harmful, by at least the late 1960s they knew this to be untrue. Specifically, the cigarette companies understood that individuals engaged in "compensatory" smoking that resulted in substantially greater delivery of tar than was measured in the machine tests. Cigarette companies were also well aware that people smoke in order to consume nicotine, a highly addictive compound. Reducing tar levels also reduce nicotine levels. Smokers crave a certain amount of nicotine and "compensate" by inhaling more deeply, holding the smoke in for a longer period, or smoking more cigarettes. All of this is in an effort to get a certain level of nicotine, but the by-product is also the consumption of a greater amount of tar.

Cigarette companies not only understood the compensatory effect, but also deliberately designed cigarettes to maximize compensation. Specifically, the cigarette companies included ventilation holes in cigarette filters (which allowed air to dilute the tar and nicotine in machine tests but were covered by the smokers lips or fingers in actual smoking), made faster burning cigarettes, and employed other techniques. All of these were designed to ensure that consumers got a high dose of nicotine and thus continued smoking. This strategy was successful — there is evidence on record of consumers switching from "high" to "low" tar cigarettes rather than quitting, and that the demand for light cigarettes increased over time. Also, a variety of studies asking smokers their reasons for choosing low-tar cigarettes show that they desire to reduce disease risk, proving that consumers believe that light cigarettes are safer.

At the same time, cigarette companies did little genuine research into less harmful cigarettes and, to the degree they did, did not market them as such. To do so could have benefitted any individual company, but would have undermined the joint declaration that tobacco is not harmful to health. Furthermore, the new product would have been less addictive, resulting in more quitting, less starting, and lower profits.

This deception continues to this day. Several new studies published in the December 2004 issue of Nicotine Tobacco Research suggest not only that current smokers continue to be misled, particularly about "light" cigarettes, but that they risk a repeat of the disaster of light and low-tar cigarettes with the introduction of a new generation of products with unsubstantiated claims about their relative safety. Two of the studies in particular highlight how claims about new products threaten to continue and expand that deception that has characterized the cigarette industry.

Some aspects of this behavior may have occurred even in the absence of collusion. But the overall pattern of behavior in the light cigarette fraud could only have developed and continued in an oligopolistic environment where the major companies colluded to ensure that there was no genuine competition on health issues, that there was limited research into less harmful cigarettes, and in which the cigarette companies agreed to maintain a united front on safety issues, a front that continues until this day.

VII. CONCLUSION

I have attempted to summarize the evidence concerning the behavior of the cigarette companies and interpret it using the standard tools available to economists. These tools indicate that the cigarette industry is an oligopoly that is ripe for collusion. An examination of the record indicates behavior by the cigarette companies that would be difficult, if not impossible, to explain with a standard model of competitive behavior, including competitive behavior by oligopolists. Instead, the record fits the pattern that economists describe as collusion — where the major companies acted in concert to promote their shared interests at the expense of consumers.

Collusion does not mean the entire absence of competition. Cigarette companies competed vigorously in several dimensions all of which involved trying to sell more cigarettes by encouraging brand loyalty, creating certain images, making deals with distributors, and other standard business practices.

Collusion also does not explain each and every instance of joint or similar actions by the cigarette companies. At various stages it was in the individual, competitive interests of each cigarette company — acting independently — to make false claims about health and avoid certain promotional techniques.

But, collusion was clearly responsible for creating and sustaining a radically different business environment. Collusion involved choosing which areas to compete in (like brand images) and which areas not to compete in (like health and safety). Collusion involved restricting the scope of research in a manner that is utterly inexplicable without some joint understanding. And collusion reinforced and strengthened the joint and misleading statements about the harmfulness of tobacco, ensuring that no firm defected from the strategy.

This had profound effects on the cigarette industry. Had the cigarette companies acted in a competitive manner, smoking would have been significantly reduced as result of consumers coming to a better understanding of the health consequences of smoking. In addition, the cigarette companies might have developed and marketed a genuinely less harmful cigarette.

The analysis and conclusions of Dr. Stiglitz are appropriate to his expertise and will be helpful to the jury. In testifying and use of the report, however, references to conclusory and derogatory words such as "monopoly," "oligopoly," "collusion," and the like shall be omitted. These are terms likely to be viewed by the jury as pejorative. They are excluded pursuant to Rule 403 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. Their exclusion should not inhibit the witness in describing in lay terms the alleged "collusion," which is a central part of the plaintiffs' case.

The testimony of Joseph E. Stiglitz and his report comply with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

2. Challenges to Defendants' Experts

The challenged defendants' experts have all taken a defensive role that is harder to attack on Daubert-Rule 702 grounds. All are highly qualified in their fields. The fact that some of them work or worked for defendant is irrelevant for purposes of admissibility, though it may be emphasized by plaintiffs on credibility grounds. Their testimony is grounded on scientific methods even though other segments of the scientific community differed with them. They need not have themselves conducted experiments, nor need they have been subject to peer review in publications. Any other rule might exclude the most knowledgeable scientists — as in the case of pharmaceuticals — who labor behind the scenes in company laboratories to produce scientific achievements that will be the basis for important patents and marketing decisions.

a. Michael Dixon

Dr. Michael Dixon was appointed Senior Scientific Advisor to British American Tobacco (Investments) Limited ("BATCo") in London, England in March 2000. Formerly, he managed a group dealing with sensory and behavioral research relating to cigarettes and cigarette smoking at the BATCo Research and Development Centre in Southampton, England. He graduated from Loughborough University of Technology in 1972 and obtained a B.Sc. degree in Human Biology. The main elements of his course were human physiology and anatomy, biochemistry, and experimental design. In 1975, he received a Ph.D. in respiratory physiology following the completion and submission of his thesis, "The Effects of the Inhalation of Irritant Gases on the Reflex Control of Breathing in the Rabbit." After receiving his Ph.D., he did a one-year Post Doctoral Research Fellowship at Nottingham University on aspects of work physiology on production line workers in the automobile industry. From 1977 to date the majority of his work has been as a scientist within the pharmaceutical and tobacco industries.

He will testify about in-house scientific inquiries, the influence of smoking on sensory capabilities and other effects on human beings, compensation, efforts of defendants to address tar, and other issues central to plaintiffs' case.

Michael Dixon's proposed testimony and report complies with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence. But see United States v. Philip Morris, Appendix A at ¶ 2101, infra (finding not credible Dr. Dixon's testimony on compensation).

b. Jeffery Gentry

Dr. Jeffery Gentry is a chemist and an expert in cigarette design who is currently Executive Vice President of Research and Development at R. J. Reynolds Tobacco Company.

He received a B.A. degree in Zoology from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 1979. After working for 2 years in the private sector, he entered graduate school and received a Ph.D. degree in Analytical Chemistry from North Carolina State University in 1986. From June 1986 until the present, he has been employed by Reynolds in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, at Reynolds' research and development department. He has been involved continuously during the past twenty years in efforts relating to cigarette design, including the design of "lights" cigarettes. Among the many areas in which he has expertise and knowledge are: (1) tobacco growing, curing, and processing; (2) cigarette performance as a result of changes in various cigarette components, such as choice of papers, tobaccos, and filtration; and (3) combustion, pyrolysis and smoke formation mechanisms inside a burning cigarette. He is also familiar with Reynolds' cigarette design efforts prior to his employment.

It is proposed that he testify that Reynolds maintains a state-of-the-art research and development department employing first-rate scientists, engineers, and technical staff and that over many decades, Reynolds has been a scientific leader in efforts to investigate cigarettes and cigarette smoke, to identify and quantify smoke constituents, to reduce or eliminate certain smoke constituents, and to develop and commercialize cigarettes with the potential to reduce the risks of smoking responding proactively to smoking and health allegations. His employer, he will state, consistently monitored the scientific literature and diligently tested theories and claims for addressing the risks of smoking. He will also criticize the conclusions of plaintiffs' expert.

Jeffery Gentry meets the requirements of Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence.

c. Jane Y. Lewis

Dr. Lewis is an Analytical Chemist with a B.S. in Chemistry and a Ph.D. in Analytical Chemistry from the University of Cincinnati. Her Ph.D. research thesis was entitled "Quantitative Determination of Pertechnetate by Electrochemical Methods. Electrochemistry of Technetium Radiopharmaceutical Analogs." She was hired as a Chemist by Philip Morris in 1984 in the Analytical Research Division of its Research and Development Department. Her initial assignment was to develop analytical methods for measuring various analytes in tobacco. She was then transferred to the smoke analysis laboratory. There, she oversaw the physical and chemical testing of cigarette smoke. She spent five years working with flavors. She managed the smoke analysis laboratory responsible for all aspects of tar, nicotine, and CO testing at Philip Morris. For two years, she managed research in Entomology, Microbiology, Analytical and Combustion Chemistry, Materials Science, and Mathematical Modeling. This work included oversight of the development and maintenance of standard test methods.

She directed a technology research group whose responsibility it was to utilize new technologies and conduct fundamental research for purposes of selectively reducing constituents in cigarette smoke identified as potentially harmful by public health authorities. Her next position was Vice President of Scientific Technical Services. The role of this department was to provide internal critical scientific information. The department supported new product development, manufacturing, and quality assurance. It also managed ingredient information. In 2004, she was appointed Vice President of Product Assessment. Her department is charged with the chemical and biological assessment of new and existing products. Within the department are divisions that deal with clinical testing (including smoke exposure testing); smoke chemistry analysis (including constituent analysis); product integrity (including mutagenicity and other biological testing); and federal- and state-mandated product testing and reporting.

Her proposed testimony is in the following areas: (1) the general reduction of tar and nicotine through the use of technology over the years, as well as selective reductions and nonconventional cigarettes; (2) the FTC Test Method and its relationship to the tar and nicotine deliveries of Philip Morris's cigarettes; (3) internal research on the exposure of smokers to tar and nicotine from cigarettes; (4) the chemical, physical, and biological testing of cigarettes, including "light" cigarettes; and (5) Philip Morris's weight of evidence assessment concerning lower yield cigarettes and disease risk.

Jane E. Lewis's proposed testimony and report comply with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence.

d. Arnold T. Mosberg

Dr. Arnold T. Mosberg was, until retirement in September 2003, employed by R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company in its Research and Development Department. At the time of retirement, his job title was Vice President of Regulatory Toxicology. He is a Diplomate of the American Board of Toxicology. He is expected to testify both as an expert witness and as a fact witness. His expert opinions and testimony are based upon 22 years of direct experience working as a toxicologist, including 18 years at Reynolds, his education, professional training in toxicology, personal interactions with other scientists, as well as knowledge of the external and internal scientific information and literature generally relied upon by experts in the fields of toxicology, the toxicology of cigarette smoke, and cigarette product evaluation and testing.

He has a B.S. in Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Biomedical Engineering. He was employed at Battelle Columbus Laboratories from 1977 to 1985. There he was Associate Section Manager in the Toxicology and Health Sciences department and managed the Battelle Columbus Laboratories' Inhalation Toxicology Facility. In 1985, he became Reynolds Senior Staff Toxicologist in the Research and Development Department. He was involved extensively in product evaluation, and biological and toxicological testing of cigarettes and cigarette smoke, including testing of commercial cigarettes. For ten years, he was responsible for overseeing all animal toxicology research conducted by Reynolds. His publications in tobacco and related fields are extensive.

His expert testimony will include the subjects of the toxicology of cigarette smoke; comparative biological testing of cigarettes, including cigarette designs with the potential to reduce the risks of smoking; product stewardship; cigarette ingredients; and the development of biological assays for cigarette product evaluation and testing. It is expected that he will testify that Reynolds employed many scientists with advanced degrees in a variety of disciplines, including chemistry, physics, biology, toxicology, pharmacology, and biochemistry; that it maintained a state-of-the-art research and development department employing first-rate scientists, engineers, and technical staff; and that over many decades, it has been a scientific leader in efforts to investigate cigarettes and cigarette smoke, to evaluate the biological effects of different cigarette types, including cigarettes with the potential to reduce the risks of smoking, and to develop new biological test methods for the evaluation of cigarettes. He will describe the work of Reynolds' scientists and researchers and the degree to which they advanced the state of scientific knowledge in such areas as cigarette design and manufacture, comparative biological testing of cigarettes, and the biological and toxicological effects of cigarette smoke and "tar."

Arnold T. Mosberg's proposed testimony and report comply with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence.

e. Kenneth R. Podraza

Kenneth R. Podraza, Ph.D. is the Vice President of Research, Development Engineering, Administration, and Compliance at Philip Morris. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in Chemistry from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 1980, and his Ph.D. in Chemistry from Virginia Commonwealth University in 1988. He obtained additional training in toxicology and pharmacology, taking courses on Liver Toxicology (Society of Toxicology, 2001); Food Allergy and Intolerance (Society of Toxicology, 2001); The Mid-America Toxicology Course (Kansas City, Kansas 2001); Integrating Toxicologic Pathology into Compound Evaluation and Risk Assessment (Society of Toxicology, 2002); Basic Principles and Protocols in Molecular Toxicology (Society of Toxicology, 2002); Basic Pharmacology (University of Wisconsin, 2002); Fundamentals of Risk Assessment and Application of Recent Methodologies to Difficult Problems (Society of Toxicology, 2003); Genomic and Proteomic Array Formats on the Cutting Edge (Society of Toxicology, 2003); Probabilistic Risk Analysis; Assessment, Management, and Communication (Harvard School of Public Health, 2003); and Functional Flow Cytometry: Applications in Toxicology (Society of Toxicology, 2004). He has many publications and patents.

Prior to working in the cigarette industry, he was a chemist at E.I. DuPont de Nemours, where he conducted developmental studies on automotive enamels and synthesized compounds for use as curing agents. He joined Philip Morris in 1980 and has held numerous technical positions, leading to his promotion to Senior Research Scientist, Program Leader. He has worked on research programs and projects dealing with organic and inorganic compounds potentially useful for improved or modified cigarette design. In 1997, he was named manager of Philip Morris's Product Testing Laboratory, managing approximately 100 people responsible for providing technical guidance and data in the areas of cigarette smoke collection and analysis and physical properties measurements of experimental and production cigarettes for domestic, international, and regulatory purposes. In 1999, he became Director of Analytical Methods and Applications, managing a division of about 60 people responsible for providing analytical expertise to support research and development activities, and focusing on the generation, review, and communication of smoke constituent information to scientists and regulators around the world.

He is expected to offer expert testimony on issues that include the following areas: (1) the FTC Test Method and its relationship to the tar and nicotine deliveries of cigarettes; (2) cigarette design, including general reduction, selective reduction, and nonconventional cigarettes; (3) Philip Morris's use and testing of ingredients used in cigarette manufacture; (4) its use of ammonia compounds and their alleged effects on nicotine; (5) its studies of compensation and exposure; (6) smoke constituent analyses and biological activity testing of cigarettes; and (7) assessment of lower FTC yield cigarettes and the risk of certain smoking related diseases.

Kenneth R. Podraza's proposed testimony and report comply with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence.

f. Graham A. Read

Graham Albert Read has been employed by British American Tobacco (BATCo) since 1976, performing, managing, and organizing the research function of BATCo. He graduated from Hull University in 1971 with a Bachelor of Science degree in Biochemistry and then took up a University Demonstratorship at Leeds University for a period of four years, with teaching and research responsibilities in biochemistry and medical laboratory sciences. At BATCo, he worked initially as a bench scientist in the Inhalation Toxicology Division of the Life Sciences Department to develop a number of test methodologies for toxicological assays for product assessment purposes. Thereafter, he became head of the Animal Inhalation Toxicology Division and subsequently was assigned responsibility for the biochemistry and hematology function. From 1980 to 1985, he was head of the Human Smoking Behaviour Group. From 1988 to 1991, he was first Business Development Manager and then General Manager of Advanced Technologies, Cambridge. In his current position, he is responsible for the development and coordination of BATCo's prospective long-term research programs and providing scientific guidance to senior executives in the area of reduced harm products.

He is expected to testify both as a fact witness and as an expert in the toxicology of tobacco smoke, including biological research on smoke and smoke condensate, with related expertise in human behavior, the pharmacological role of nicotine in smoking, and cigarette design, with particular reference to the development of potentially reduce risk tobacco products, including lower delivery of tar and nicotine products. He will also describe efforts to find ways to modify cigarettes to reduce health risks.

Graham A. Read's proposed testimony and report comply with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Rules of Evidence.

g. Edward A. Robinson

Dr. Edward A. Robinson is the Manager of Chemistry for Lorillard Tobacco Company. Prior to joining Lorillard in 1996, he was a Postdoctoral Associate specializing in Organic and Inorganic Photophysics in the Department of Chemistry at the University of Florida. He received his doctorate in Inorganic Chemistry from Georgetown University in 1995.

As manager of Chemistry, he worked on, among other projects, the development of potentially reduced exposure products and lead a team of scientists tasked with developing and evaluating new product designs. He also monitors competitive developments in the areas of cigarette design.

While Dr. Robinson's testimony on the history of his company and the industry generally since the 1950s seems best left to documentation, he has had access to the files and the memory of other company personnel. His work within the firm puts him in a position to interpret documents and other historical materials in a way helpful to the jury.

Edward A. Robinson will be permitted to testify under Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence, subject to particular rulings at trial to reduce hearsay dangers.

h. William Wecker

Dr. Wecker is a statistician and applied mathematician. He received the Bachelor of Science degree (Basic Sciences) from the United States Air Force Academy in 1963. He received both the Master of Science degree (Operations Research, 1970) and Doctor of Philosophy degree (Statistics and Management Science, 1972) from the University of Michigan. He served on the faculties of the University of Chicago, the University of California at Davis, and Stanford University, where he taught statistics and applied mathematics at the graduate level. He has performed research in statistical theory, statistical methods, and applied mathematics for thirty-three years. He is currently President of William E. Wecker Associates, Inc., an applied mathematics consulting firm located in Novato, California. He served as associate editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association for four years and of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics for eighteen years. He is widely published.

Dr. Wecker was asked by counsel for defendants to review and comment on the expert reports of Drs. Jeffery Harris and John Beyer. He addresses four main areas in his report:

1. Compensatory smoking of low-yield cigarettes as reported in Monograph 13, Chapter 3;

2. Lung cancer risks among lower tar smokers as reported in Monograph 13, Chapter 4;

3. Lung cancer risks among low tar smokers as reported in Harris-Thun 2004; and

4. The damage estimates reported by John Beyer.

In the main, he will testify to the lack of appropriate theory, methodology, and technique of plaintiffs' experts, particularly Drs. Jeffrey E. Harris and John C. Beyer. While plaintiffs' experts have attempted to meet some of the prior criticisms of the Harris and Beyer reports, Dr. Wecker will attempt to demonstrate that their conclusions remain scientifically unacceptable. The objection that other experts in the field do not support the defendants' expert is not alone a basis for exclusion. William Wecker is competent in his fields. Credibility is for the jury.

William Wecker meets the requirements of Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

3. Minor or No Challenges to Plaintiffs' and Defendants' Experts

a. Neal L. Benowitz

Neal L. Benowitz, M.D., an expert for plaintiffs, is a Professor of Medicine, Psychiatry and Biopharmaceutical Sciences at the University of California, San Francisco. He will testify for plaintiffs that light cigarettes have not "substantially reduced adverse health consequences of cigarette smoking." Neal A. Benowitz's proposed testimony and report comply with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. See also Price, Appendix C at ¶¶ 60, 62-63, infra.

b. Michael F. Borderding

Michael F. Borderding, Ph.D., is a principal long-time Research Scientist of Reynolds and expert for defendants. He may testify about the variability of smokers' intake of tar and nicotine, and the unsatisfactory nature of the method of estimating tar and nicotine inhaled developed in Massachusetts. He will attack the conclusions of Dr. Jeffrey E. Harris. Michael F. Borderding's proposed testimony complies with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

c. Gregory N. Connolly

Gregory N. Connolly D.M.D., M.P.H., is a Professor of Public Health Practice at the Tobacco Control Program of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. He will testify on testing methods for tar and nicotine and the dynamic nature of human smoking patterns and compensation.

One conclusion of Dr. Connolly will not be permitted at trial. At the end of his report, he concludes that "the tobacco industry purposefully designed its products to create cigarettes which have low tar and nicotine ratings on machine tests but were not shown to reduce actual exposure to toxins or disease risk." Connolly Report at 7. This is an inference that may be drawn from other facts in evidence. Dr. Connolly's report, which is concerned with tar and nicotine yields, may, however, be used by the jury to infer scienter. In all other respects Gregory N. Connolly's proposed testimony complies with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

d. Richard Cox

Richard H. Cox, a former Vice President of Philip Morris in charge of research will not be relying on his own report. He has a Ph.D. from the University of Kentucky in Organic Chemistry. By stipulation, he may replace, for testimonial purposes, Drs. Lewis and Podraza. His qualifications are not challenged. For the reasons stated in connection with their reports, supra, he may testify.

e. Wayne S. Desaro

Dr. Wayne S. Desaro, another of defendant's well qualified experts, is in the same position as Dr. Viscusi in his criticism of Dr. Hauser. See infra. He may testify, pursuant to Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. That does not preclude Dr. Hauser's testimony.

f. Peter C. English

Peter C. English, M.D. and Ph.D., is a member of the faculties of both history and medicine at Duke University. He will testify for defendants. He will opine that low tar yield cigarettes reduce the risk of lung cancer, that the FTC testing method was reasonable, and that the public health community was well aware of the compensation problem, but continued to recommend law yield cigarettes for those who did not quit smoking. His testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

g. Barry E. Goodstadt

Barry E. Goodstadt, Ph.D. in Social Psychology, is a senior research executive with Wirthlin Worldwide, doing research in behavior including the effect of anti-smoking advertising. He is retained by defendants to show that plaintiffs' surveys for damage purposes are flawed. His proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

h. Stephen Hecht

Stephen Hecht, Ph.D., an organic chemist and expert in tobacco carcinogens, is the Wallin Professor of Cancer Prevention at the Cancer Center and Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Minnesota. He will testify that there is no decreased risk of lung cancer in smokers of light and ultralight cigarettes. His proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

i. Lucy L. Henke

Lucy L. Henke, Ph.D., is Associate Professor in the Department of Marketing and Legal Studies at the University of Louisiana. She will testify on behalf of defendants that the work of plaintiffs' expert Katherine Kinsella is flawed. Lucy L. Henke's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

j. Jack E. Henningfield

Jack E. Henningfield, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Behavioral Biology at The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, Maryland, and Vice President for Research and Health Policy at Pinney Associates, a consulting firm on treatment for medical problems, including tobacco dependence. He is an expert for plaintiffs, "of the opinion that the tobacco industry purposefully designed its products to create and sustain nicotine addiction in cigarette smokers and specifically designed so-called 'light' cigarettes in a manner to deliver equivalent tar and nicotine to smokers of their regular extension counterparts while giving the appearance of being a 'safer' cigarette." Conclusion of Report dated February 27, 2005, unpaginated. He will not be permitted to testify to the intention of defendants, but he may testify that "lights" would sustain addiction and deliver tar and nicotine equivalent to traditional cigarettes, while appearing to be safer. The jury is in a position to infer intent from the documents and other testimony, including his. Jack E. Henningfield's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

k. Jacob Jacoby

Jacob Jacoby, Ph.D. in Psychology, is Merchants Council Professor of Consumer Behavior and Retail Management at the Leonard N. Stern School of Business at New York University. He plans to testify for defendants that an R.J. Reynolds survey proffered by defendants is appropriate and demonstrates that factors other than safety — especially taste — determine why smokers choose "lights" or "ultralights." Jacob Jacoby's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

1. James A. Langenfeld

James A. Langenfeld, Ph.D., is a Director of LEGG, an economics consulting firm, and adjunct Professor at Loyola University College School of Law. He proposes to testify for defendants that:

defendants' advertising and marketing behavior has been substantially affected by the regulations and policies of the FTC and other government entities. The FTC has specifically restricted the use of health claims in cigarette advertising, with the exception of tar and nicotine claims. The FTC, following the advice of the scientific and public health community, developed a specific policy to encourage cigarette manufacturers, including Defendants, to compete on producing and marketing "low tar" cigarettes as measured by a standardized, government-sanctioned, testing method (the FTC Method). The FTC has also outlined specific parameters regarding the use of descriptors that are tied to FTC Method results. Defendants' behavior, with respect to the development and marketing of "low tar" and "light" cigarettes, clearly tracks FTC policy over time. Neither Dr. Stiglitz's nor Dr. Proctor's opinions adequately account for FTC and other government regulatory activity on Defendants' behavior.

James A. Langenfeld's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence. Drs. Stiglitz and Proctor may give opinions contrary to those of Dr. Langenfeld.

m. Nancy A. Mathiowetz

Nancy A. Mathiowetz, Ph.D., is a Professor at the University of Wisconsin in the Department of Sociology and Urban Studies and has been an Associate Professor at the University of Michigan and University of Maryland. She is expected to testify for defendants with respect to the inadequacy of the surveys conducted by Knowledge Networks and relied upon by plaintiffs' expert Dr. Jeffrey Harris. She will also evaluate the work of plaintiffs' expert Dr. K. Michael Cummings.

Nancy A. Mathiowetz's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

n. Kenneth A. Mundt

Kenneth A. Mundt, Ph.D. is by training and experience an epidemiologist. He was president and founder of Applied Epidemiology, Inc., based in Amherst, Massachusetts, until November, 2003, at which time the company merged with ENVIRON International Corporation, where he is Principal, and Director of Epidemiology. He was trained as an epidemiologist at the Master's level at the School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts, and at the doctoral level at the School of Public Health, University of North Carolina. For ten years he served on the faculty of the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology of the School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts, and at the doctoral level at the School of Public Health, University of North Carolina. He serves as Adjunct Associate Professor in the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and as an Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University.

His opinion for defendants is summarized as follows:

a. Evaluation of health risks associated with cigarettes with different FTC tar yields is best accomplished using rigorous epidemiological methods including individual measurement of exposure and disease: other sources of information may supplement findings from these primary studies;

b. Since the 1970's numerous epidemiological studies have compared risks of smoking-related diseases (including lung cancers and heart diseases) among smokers of cigarettes with different FTC tar yields, and most of these studies report lower health risks associated with using lower-yield cigarettes compared to using higher yield cigarettes;

c. Many scientists, physicians and policy makers have relied upon the science demonstrating a benefit of lower-yield cigarettes in their public health and medical recommendations to quit, but if unable or unwilling to quit, to switch to a lower yield product. They also have suggested that manufacturers continue to lower toxicant levels of cigarettes;

d. Arguments against a lower-yield benefit, such as those found in Chapter 4 of NCI's Monograph 13, are unsubstantiated;

e. The weight of the scientific evidence, based on my critical review of the published, peer-reviewed epidemiological literature and taking into consideration the criticisms of plaintiffs' experts, indicates that there is a benefit, not limited to reduced lung cancer risks, of reduced-tar cigarettes, including Lights, and which cannot be explained by bias.

Kenneth A. Mundt is qualified to testify under Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

o. Kevin M. Murphy

Kevin M. Murphy, Ph.D., is George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics in the Graduate School of Business and Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. As an expert retained by defendants, he will criticize the work of Drs. John Beyer and Jeffrey Harris. Kevin M. Murphy's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

p. Bruce Neidle

Bruce Neidle, Director of Business Analysis at Philip Morris will testify to influences on pricing of cigarettes. His testimony complies with Rules 701, 702, and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

q. Bruce M. Owen

Bruce M. Owen, Ph.D., is the Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor of Public Policy in the School of Humanities and Sciences and Gordon Cain Senior Fellow in the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He was Chief Economist of the Antitrust Division of the United States Department of Justice. As a defense witness, he is critical of the work of Drs. John C. Beyer and Jeffrey E. Harris for plaintiffs. His main conclusions are:

• In this case, compensation for economic injury is an alternative way of compensating individuals for personal injury. If personal injuries have been or will be compensated in other cases, damages resulting from this economic injury suit lead to defendants' having to pay double damages.

• Plaintiffs' proposed damages models would result in compensation of some smokers who did not rely on the alleged fraud.

• Plaintiffs' proposed damages models would result in compensation of some smokers who have not suffered economic injury because the amount of the economic loss associated with the fraud did not reduce the value of their purchases below what they paid.

• Plaintiffs' proposed class combines dissimilar smokers who have conflicting interests.

• Dr. Beyer's price impact method suffers from numerous fatal conceptual errors and estimation errors. When errors are corrected or when reasonable alternatives are considered, there is no basis to conclude that defendants' alleged fraud significantly increased the price of cigarettes.

• Dr. Harris's loss of value method is incapable of appropriately estimating causation, injury and damages. His estimate of the value of light cigarettes has fatal conceptual flaws and is exaggerated by his unsupported assumption that a "safer" cigarette would have been available but for the alleged fraud.

Bruce M. Owen's proposed testimony complies with Rules 702 and 703 of the Federal Rules of Evidence.

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